Future Trends And Market Opportunities Summary Executive .
eivut aryec mEx mSuFuture trends and market opportunitiesin the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030HealthHouseholdsRetail ClothingInequalityDiversityReal estateBusiness servicesBenchmarkingIncome distributionChanging world orderFinancial services ElderlyInfrastructureAccommodationCity successEducationRelocation and out-sourcingLabour supplyGovernmentCarsIncome YouthSpecialisationConsumer dynamicsManufacturingWhat-if scenariosFood JobsGDP BeveragesMarket opportunitiesConsumer spendingElasticityCosmeticsTeachers, doctors and nursesFuture urban landscapeCommon path or unique journey?Industrialisation and de-industrialisationGrowth challengePopulationUrban renaissance and declineWhite papersponsored byHousing
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030Global footprint of the 750 cities in 20302.8 billionpopulation,Change in urban landscape across the 750between today and 2030US 80trillion GDP,1.1 billion jobs,30%35%61%world totalworld total200 millionhigh-incomehouseholds,60%world totalworld totalUS 40trillion consumerspending,55%world total150 million410 millionextra elderlyaged 65 more people livingin the 750 cities240 millionmore jobs60 million 37 trillionincrease in GDP220 million moremiddle-income householdsextra jobs in industry 1.7 trillion 18 trillionincrease inconsumer spendingextra spending on carsand eating outShift eastward in urban economic power540 million m2extra office space requiredChinese cities like Chengdu,Hangzhou and Wuhan willbecome as prominent in2030, in economic terms, ascities like Dallas and Seoulare today.GDP change 2013–2030(US billions 2012 pricesand exchange rates)0200400600 800GDP % growth 2013–2030(US 2012 prices and exchange rates)10%260 millionnew homes needed450%
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030Biggest cities by population and GDP by region in 2030By populationAfricaChinaEuropeLatinAmerica &CaribbeanNorthAmericaRest Asia& OceaniaRank (2030)Rank (2013)12234By GDPMillionsRank ro1681Cairo14.133Luanda1385Luanda9.847Lagos76Rank (2013) CityUS bn159Dar es Salaam9.454Cape zhou, Guangdong74355Guangzhou, Guangdong15.455Shenzhen72711London - Metro16.712London - Metro1,26822Paris - Metro13.421Paris - Metro1,04533Moscow - Metro11.833Moscow - Metro72044Madrid - Metro7.144Madrid - Metro32855St Petersburg - Metro4.955Munich - Metro30912Mexico City22.311São Paulo75321São Paulo21.622Mexico City42033Buenos Aires15.633Buenos Aires38344Rio de Janeiro13.245Santiago260731,09355Lima12.954Rio de Janeiro11New York-Newark-Jersey City20.411New York-Newark-Jersey City2,22522Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim14.022Los Angeles-Long Chicago-Naperville-Elgin86544Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington9.444Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land75355Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Istanbul - Metro507Source: Oxford Economics Global Cities 20301. 2012 prices and exchange rates2City255
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030Cities set to see the biggest increase in population (change in millions)and GDP (change in US billions) by region by 2030Population (change 2013–2030)RankAfricaChinaEuropeLatin America & CaribbeanNorth AmericaRest Asia & Oceania3Source: Oxford Economics Global Cities 20301. 2012 prices and exchange ratesCityGDP (change 2013–2030)MillionsRankCityUS 3Dar es Salaam4.93Cairo904Luanda4.24Lagos505Abuja3.75Cape 53Shanghai4.83Beijing5944Chongqing2.94Guangzhou, Guangdong5105Guangzhou, Guangdong2.35Shenzhen5081London - Metro2.31London - Metro4762Paris - Metro0.92Moscow - Metro2663Madrid - Metro0.53Paris - Metro2374Munich - Metro0.44Madrid - Metro915Stockholm - Metro0.45Munich - Metro831Mexico City3.11São Paulo3352Lima2.62Mexico City1623Buenos Aires1.93Buenos Aires1444Santa Cruz1.64Santiago1255Bogotá1.65Lima1231Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington2.51New York-Newark-Jersey City8742Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario1.92Los Angeles-Long gton-Arlington-Alexandria2884Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar ston-The Woodlands-Sugar karta6.23Istanbul - 2
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030Executive summaryThe Global 750: forecasting the urban world to 2030The emerging markets of India, Brazil, and China in particular, have been the story of thecentury so far, with rapid economic development driving poverty reduction and risingprosperity on an unprecedented scale. Meanwhile, having recovered from a profoundfinancial crisis, most of the developed world is starting to return to solid growth.But when we look below the national level, it is the world’s major cities that are thepowerhouses of global growth. Teeming with industry and services, brimming withinnovation, and home to swelling and increasingly more skilled and diverse labour forces,the world’s 750 biggest cities today account for some 57% of global GDP. By 2030 the 750look set to contribute close to a staggering US 80 trillion1 to the world economy (61% oftotal world GDP) and, with it, offer vast commercial opportunity for those who can servetheir needs in everything from office space to cooking oil.Shift eastward in urban economic powerRegion global 750 urban aggregate: GDP (US trillion 2012 prices and exchange rates)Europe30Chinese cities will be at the heart of a radical shift in the urban centre of economic gravityby 20302. Eight European cities will drop out of the global top 50 cities by GDP by 2030,while nine new Chinese cities will join that group, taking the Chinese total to 17. This total of17 Chinese cites in world’s top 50 in 2030 is more than North America and four times morethan Europe. China’s lesser-known mega cities such as Chengdu, Hangzhou and Wuhanwill become as prominent in 2030, in economic terms, as Dallas and Seoul are today.Driven by burgeoning urban populations and rapid labour productivity growth, this handfulof huge Chinese cities is just the tip of the iceberg. The aggregate GDP of China’s largest150 cities will overtake Europe’s 139 largest cities as early as 2015, and North America’slargest 58 cities in 2022.1 2012 prices and exchange rates42 The 150 Chinese cities covered in this study, which account for one-fifth of the world’s largest 750 cities today by population, contributearound 90% of total national Chinese GDP. Chinese cities are defined according to official city prefecture geographies, the recognisedurban geographies in China—the average population size of these 150 cities is large at 6.4 million. Both Chinese national and urbanaggregate figures do not include Hong Kong and Macao, which are classified separately. North American cities account for 58 of the 750cities, contribute 63% to national GDP, with an average population size of 3.3 million. European cities account for 139 of the 750 cities,contribute 44% to national GDP, and have an average population size is 1.7 million. These characteristics are important to bear in mindwhen comparing the relative size of region urban aggregates.203025NorthAmericaChina2015105The Oxford Economics Global Cities 2030 study is the indispensable source to navigatingthose opportunities to 2030. In this white paper executive summary, we set out just someof the themes and insights that emerge from this unparalleled urban forecasting exercise.Seismic changes are underway in the global citieseconomic order 20130Latin America& CaribbeanRest ofAsiaAfricaOceaniaSource: Oxford Economics Global Cities 2030 but in per capita terms developing cities still have a longway to go.While the output of Chinese cities will quickly come to eclipse the collective output ofthose in Europe and North America, GDP per capita in emerging and developing cities willtrail developed cities for many years to come. Consequently, gaps in living standards andwages—even in the fastest-growing emerging markets—will take decades to close. Forexample, it will take citizens of Beijing some 24 more years, at projected growth rates, toachieve GDP per capita levels comparable to those of New York today. For Delhi that roadto catch-up will take over 50 years, while Lagosians in Nigeria are some 150 years behind.
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030Which cities will see the biggest increase in population and GDP by 2030?5Rank ulation (change kaBangladesh8.4KarachiPakistan7.5KinshasaDem. Rep. of Congo .2DelhiIndia5.9MumbaiIndia5.1Dar es aNigeria3.7ChennaiIndia3.7Hyderabad (India)India3.6RiyadhSaudi Arabia3.5AhmadabadIndia3.4Mexico CityMexico3.1AbidjanCôte d’Ivoire3.1SuratIndia3.1Ho Chi Minh tagongBangladesh2.6OuagadougouBurkina Faso2.6LimaPeru2.6PuneIndia2.5Dallas-Fort .3YaoundéCameroon2.3Guangzhou, GuangdongChina2.3London - na2.1Hà Nigeria1.9JeddahSaudi Arabia1.9Buenos AiresArgentina1.9ShenzhenChina1.9Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario US1.9Source: Oxford Economics Global Cities 2030 1. 2012 prices and exchange ratesRank 72829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950GDP (change 2013–2030)CityNew York-Newark-Jersey CityShanghaiTianjinBeijingLos Angeles-Long Beach-AnaheimGuangzhou, GuangdongShenzhenLondon - MetroChongqingSuzhou, JiangsuTokyoJakartaSão PauloFoshan, GuangdongWuhan, HubeiChengdu, SichuanWashington-Arlington-AlexandriaIstanbul - MetroChicago-Naperville-ElginHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandDallas-Fort Worth-ArlingtonQingdao, ShandongShenyang, LiaoningMoscow - MetroHangzhou, ZhejiangSan Francisco-Oakland-HaywardChangsha, HunanParis - MetroDalian, LiaoningTangshan, HebeiPhiladelphia-Camden-WilmingtonWuxi, JiangsuBoston-Cambridge-NewtonErdos, Inner MongoliaDongguan, GuangdongSingaporeNingbo, ZhejiangZhengzhou, HenanNanjing, JiangsuYantai, ShandongAtlanta-Sandy Springs-RoswellBangkokHong KongSeattle-Tacoma-BellevuePerthQuanzhou, FujianJinan, ShandongMumbaiSan Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa ClaraMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm BeachThe long road to catch up for emergingand developing citiesCountry US na193US188Thailand182Hong Kong S165Selected global 750 cities: Catch up with New YorkNew York GDP (2013)New YorkNew York GDPper capita (2013)41Moscow2338Istanbul3424Beijing3534São ears to catch up assuming baseline growthSource: Oxford Economics Global Cities 2030
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030The Global 750 will exhibit divergent growth trends to 2030 Every city in the Global 750 is projected to have a larger economy by 2030. But thediversity of economic performance is large. Developing-economy cities can grow rapidlyby acquiring capital and technological know-how, and putting them to use by their rapidlygrowing urban labour forces. The result is the so-called ‘catch-up’ growth exhibited by thedynamic Asian city powerhouses. Developed-country cities, on the other hand, lie closeto the technological frontier, have stable urban populations and more limited investmentand job creation opportunities. They therefore tend to grow more slowly. Beyond thesedifferences, countries and their cities vary in terms of their resource endowments,institutional infrastructure and the skill levels of their citizens, among other factors. All ofthese lead to wide variation in forecast growth rates across the Global 750.Wide range in urban growth outlooks across regions and within countriesRegion and selected country global 750 cities: GDP growth (2013–2030)EuropeOceaniaNorth AmericaLatin America & CaribbeanRest of AsiaAfricaChinaGrowth in the number of African city middle-income households is set to be impressivelystrong in the run-up to 2030. Although starting from a low base, urban Africa will add asmany new middle-income households as Latin America & Caribbean cities over the period.China to leap ahead on high-income householdsRegion global 750 urban aggregate: High-income households2013Africa2013–2030 changeOceania0246810% annual average growth (2013–2030)12 but urban diversity within countries will ultimatelydetermine commercial opportunities.6Linked directly to these growth projections, the change in Chinese urban householdincomes by 2030 will be twice as large as the change for North American cities in USdollar terms, and more than six times the change in Latin American & Caribbean cities.In percentage growth rate terms, Chinese urban incomes will grow six times faster thanEuropean urban incomes.Perhaps the most striking consumer trend to emerge from the Global Cities 2030 studyis the way in which the number of high-income Chinese consumers is set to leap aheadover the next two decades. Starting from a comparatively low base today, China will boastsome 45 million urban households in 2030 with annual incomes in excess of 70,0003,putting it well ahead of Europe and hot on the heels of North America. Shanghai will jumpfrom a rank of 69th today to 8th for its number of high-income households in 2030.GermanyUSBrazilRussiaNigeriaIndiaChinaSource: Oxford EconomicsGlobal Cities 2030An urban consumer boom worldwide and China will leap ahead in its number of high-incomeconsumers.RegionsCountriesand city governance. The resulting divergence in urban performance can be huge, forexample in US cities compared to German cities, or in China and India. US city GDPoutlooks to 2030 range from 1.6% (Cleveland) to 3.7% (San Jose) compared to a rangeof only 0.7%–1.9% for German cities.A much less apparent finding, highlighted by the Global Cities 2030 study, is the degreeof variation in urban economic performance within countries. For investment and locationdecisions, understanding that diversity is essential. Various factors can have an impacton intra-national urban performance, including sector structure, agglomeration benefits,infrastructure quality, central government’s tolerance of diverse performance, land supplyChinaLatin America & CaribbeanEuropeRest of AsiaNorth America0Source: Oxford Economics Global Cities 20303 2012 prices and exchange rates non-PPP102030Millions405060
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030Which will be the biggest consumer cities in 2030?7High-income1 householdsRank (2030) Rank (2013) Change in rank City110Tokyo220New York-Newark-Jersey City341London - Metro43-1Osaka550Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim660Paris - allas-Fort Worth-Arlington104131Istanbul - Metro118-3Nagoya1211-1Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land139-4Washington-Arlington-Alexandria142713São mden-Wilmington18191Hong Kong19289Moscow - Metro2016-4Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm dge-Newton2418-6Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell2517-8Melbourne2615-11San dale28291Mexico City2912596Guangzhou, 37Chongqing3625-11Minneapolis-St. pei40141101Dongguan, side-San antiago45538Tel Aviv4631-15San Diego-Carlsbad4735-12Munich - -Columbia-Towson5032-18Madrid - US2.0Brazil1.8Saudi Arabia1.8China1.8US1.7Hong US1.4Australia1.4US1.4US1.4Mexico1.3China1.3South US1.1China1.1Saudi .0Israel0.9US0.9Germany0.9US0.9US0.8Spain0.8Rank dle-income2 housholdsRank (2013) Change in rank ng4-2São Paulo70Buenos Aires2315Tianjin156Cairo6-4Mexico City3-8Osaka186Bangkok196Guangzhou, Guangdong3117Chengdu, Sichuan172Rio de Janeiro2913Delhi3215Mumbai10-8Paris - Metro6243Baoding, Hebei266Shenzhen3918Linyi, Shandong5533Nanyang, Henan241Lima16-8Moscow - Metro349Manila9-17New York-Newark-Jersey City10679Lagos14-14London - Metro5930Shijiazhuang, Hebei7141Harbin, Heilongjiang8453Zhoukou, Henan6836Nantong, Jiangsu6633Baghdad6329Weifang, Shandong7742Xuzhou, Jiangsu10266Yancheng, Jiangsu10164Heze, Shandong5719Wuhan, Hubei7536Handan, Hebei12-28Seoul37-4Dongguan, Guangdong7634Jining, Shandong496Qingdao, Shandong6117Foshan, Guangdong11-34Istanbul - 7Tangshan, Hebei10757Changchun, JilinSource: Oxford Economics Global Cities 2030 1 High-income 70k non-PPP 2012 prices and exchange rates 2 Middle-income 10k- 70k non-PPP 2012 prices and exchange uth gypt2.1Pakistan2.1South Africa2.1China2.1China2.1
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 citiesHow the global urban landscape will look in 2030Which cities will see the biggest increase in income and consumer spending by 2030?US and Asian citiesdominate the top 10 for thebiggest increase in urbanincome and consumerspending by 2030.8Household disposable income (change 2013–2030)Rank (2030) CityCountryUS bn11New York-Newark-Jersey ngChina2795JakartaIndonesia2746London - MetroUK2557Los Angeles-Long Beach-AnaheimUS2438TokyoJapan2369RiyadhSaudi Arabia 23410TianjinChina23111Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandUS23112Dallas-Fort Worth-ArlingtonUS23013Guangzhou, GuangdongChina22514Istanbul - MetroTurkey22215ShenzhenChina19816São gguan, GuangdongChina17519DohaQatar17520Moscow - 642
Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 cities How the global urban landscape will look in 2030 Europe Africa Oceania Rest of Asia Latin America & Caribbean China North America 30 2013 2030 20 25 15 10 5 0 Source: Oxford Economics Global Cities 2030 Executive summary The Global 750: forecasting the urban world to 2030
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