Winter 2020-2021 Climate Forecast - CROHMS
Winter 2020-2021Climate ForecastCRFG virtual Annual Review MeetingKyle Dittmer, PHHydrologist-MeteorologistColumbia River Inter-Tribal Fish CommissionPortland, OregonProfessor of Natural SciencesMultnomah University, Portland, OregonPCC – Southeast Campus, Portland, OregonNovember 12th, 2020
Columbia River Inter-TribalFish Commission - CRITFCCRITFC website, http://www.critfc.org
2019-2020 Portland ClimateForecast PerformanceMonth:NovemberTemperature (mean monthly):Avg. (n 20) Observed Precipitation (% normal):Near Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.41.5Near Normal (90 - 110%)93%Observed27%DecemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.22.3Near Normal (90 - 110%)94%79%JanuaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)1.14.4Near Normal (90 - 110%)106%155%FebruaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.50.1Below Normal (70 - 90%)83%42%MarchNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)average:-0.30.1-1.81.3Below Normal (70 - 90%)average:88%93%66%74% but what about Snow events?!Forecasted seven events two moderate, five minor(7.5-inch seasonal total), November to March.Observed only one snow event: March 14 (0.5-inch) a 0.5-inch seasonal total. Avg. (n 20)
2019-2020 Hood RiverForecast PerformanceMonth:NovemberTemperature (mean monthly):Avg. (n 20)Near Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.1Avg. (n 20)Observed-0.4Precipitation (% normal):Near Normal (90 - 110%)109%14%DecemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.32Near Normal (90 - 110%)93%58%JanuaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.93.5Near Normal (90 - 110%)86%143%FebruaryAbove Normal ( 1.8 degF)03Near Normal (90 - 110%)84%43%MarchNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 ve Normal (110 - 130%)average:
2019-2020 Government CampClimate Forecast : 118%91%42415225.5143%117%91%93%average:Water Supply Forecast (MEI method): Columbia R. at The Dalles, Jan.-July:98 MAF (issued Oct. 2019), 97%. Observed: 101 MAF. Error 3%.97 MAF (issued April 2020), 96%. Observed: 101 MAF. Error 4%.
Introduction – Methods CRITFC forecast uses a holistic, integrated big picture view. Big-picture: Solar Forcing (e.g., sunspot cycles) does influenceour global weather patterns over the long term (decades).In memoriam: Dr. Landscheidt, of Germany (1922 – 2004). Track ENSO with the Multi-variable ENSO Index: MEI. NOAA’s Sea-Surface Temperature Departure Forecasts. Hydro-Climate approach: Use a regression: Multi-variable ENSOIndex (1950-2020) vs. historic runoff for the Columbia River atThe Dalles, then compute a WY2021 Water Supply Forecast. Select the “right” mixture of 20 past Water Years (next slide). Pattern recognition is key: ENSO-Neutral and La Niña years.
Introduction – MethodsEnsemble forecasting – 20 past water years:WY2021 TDA runoff PDO-warm PDO-coldEl Nino 18.5x(MAF)Average:115.4LaNina:STDEV:18.8Solar minimums:ENSO-neutral/LaNina border:High Water years ( 120 MAF)La NinaXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX16938
SUNSPOT COUNTS – “La Niña winter”Source: gression
SUNSPOT COUNTS – long term viewSource: cast-update
COLUMBIA U. IRI & NOAA’s CPC ENSO imate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso tab enso-sst table
NOAA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - “La Niña winter”Source: /glbSSTe3MonMask.html
NINO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE INDICESSource: o-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni
MEI SIGNAL SUGGESTS “La Niña winter”MEI – one index that tracks: Sea-Level Pressure Surface winds (2D) Sea-surface Temperature Surface Air Temperature Fraction of Cloud coverSource: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei
PDO SIGNAL: COLD PHASE BUT NEAR NEUTRAL
ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTBlue line long-term average (WY 1929-2020)
Summary: southern IdahoHagerman (proxy station: Jerome)Month:Temperature (mean monthly):Avg. (n 20)Precipitation (% normal):Avg. (n 20)97%NovemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)1.8Near Normal (90 - 110%)DecemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.1Way Above Normal (130 - 150%)133%JanuaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.2Near Normal (90 - 110%)100%FebruaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.8Above Normal (110 - 130%)120%MarchNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-1Near Normal (90 - 110%)96%Expect some snow events: 117% of normal (NOV-MAR); seasonal total 10-inches.NOV 1-inch (up to 3), DEC 2-inch (up to 4), JAN 4-inch (up to 9), FEB 2-inch (up to 6), MAR 1-inch (up to 3)
Summary: Columbia R. GorgeHood River, OregonMonth:Temperature (mean monthly):Avg. (n 20)Precipitation (% normal):Avg. (n 20)NovemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.3Near Normal (90 - 110%)106%DecemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.3Above Normal (110 - 130%)113%JanuaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)1Near Normal (90 - 110%)103%FebruaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0Near Normal (90 - 110%)96%MarchNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-1.5Above Normal (110 - 130%)124%Expect many snow events: 134% of normal (NOV-MAR); seasonal total 31-inches.NOV 2-inch (up to 5), DEC 11-inch (up to 23), JAN 9-inch (up to 19), FEB 6-inch (up to 15), MAR 3-inch
Summary: the mountainsGovernment Camp, OregonMonth:Temperature (mean monthly):Avg. (n 20)Precipitation (% normal):Avg. (n 20)Snowfall% NormalNovemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.8Near Normal (90 - 110%)106%3293%DecemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-1Above Normal (110 - 130%)128%62135%JanuaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)1.1Above Normal (110 - 130%)116%6295%FebruaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-1.2Near Normal (90 - 110%)104%49151%MarchNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-1.7Way Above Normal (130 - 150%)147%57153%AprilNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-1.1Above Normal (110 - 130%)122%29133%MayNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.6Near Normal (90 - 110%)93%674%Expect a seasonal total of: 297-inches or 119% of normal (NOV-MAY).
Summary: the Portland ForecastMonth:Temperature (mean monthly):Avg. (n 20)Precipitation (% normal):Avg. (n 20)NovemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.6Above Normal (110 - 130%)112%DecemberNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.1Near Normal (90 - 110%)100%JanuaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)0.8Above Normal (110 - 130%)114%FebruaryNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-0.6Near Normal (90 - 110%)94%MarchNear Normal (-1.8 to 1.8 degF)-1.5Near Normal (90 - 110%)106%EXPECT HIGH VARIABILITY – INTENSE RAIN EVENTS, FLOODS, FOG, WIND STORMS, GORGE WIND, FREEZING RAIN, etc.WATER SUPPLY FORECAST (JANUARY - JULY): 115 MAF ( 19 MAF) or 114%, COLUMBIA RIVER AT THE DALLES. but what about Snow events?!Expect FIVE events: 2 moderate(2-3 inch),3 minor(0.25-0.5 inch).NOV 0.1-inch, DEC 2-inch (up to 7), JAN 2-inch (up to 5), FEB 1-inch (up to 2.5),and MAR 1-inch (up to 4).(25%- 85% likely) Season: 6-inches
Winter 2020-2021 Climate Forecast Kyle Dittmer, PH Hydrologist-Meteorologist Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Portland, Oregon November 12th, 2020 CRFG virtual Annual Review Meeting Professor of Natural Sciences Multnomah University, Portland, Oregon
Climate/Weather Linkage Forecast Uncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Global Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System* Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments
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