DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES OF SERBIA IN THE FIRST WORLD WAR AND .
ECONOMIC ANNALS, Volume LIX, No.203 / October – December 2014UDC: 3.33 ISSN: 0013-3264DOI:10.2298/EKA1403029RBiljana Radivojević*Goran Penev**DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES OF SERBIA INTHE FIRST WORLD WAR AND THEIRLONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES***,****ABSTRACT: Proportional to the totalpopulation, Serbia was the country withthe highest number of casualties in theFirst World War. According to the firstestimates presented at the Paris PeaceConference of 1919, total Serbian casualtieswere 1,250,000, over 400,000 of whichwere military losses while the rest werecivilian deaths. Besides direct losses, whichinclude casualties in war events and deathsresulting from military operations, theSerbian population also suffered significantindirect losses originating from the reducednumber of births during the war and postwar years, increased death rate after thewar as a consequence of war events, andmore intensive emigration. The paperanalyses some of the most-quoted estimatesof demographic losses (the Paris PeaceConference, Đurić, Notestein et al.), whichdiffer in the methodology applied, theterritory covered, and the obtained results.Moreover, the paper specifies the long-termdemographic consequences of the FirstWorld War, primarily on the populationsize of Serbia and its age and genderstructure. Generations that suffered thebiggest losses and those whose sex structurewas disrupted the most are indicated.KEY WORDS: war losses, Serbia, FirstWorld War, demographic consequencesJEL CLASSIFICATION: J11University of Belgrade - Faculty of Economics, Serbia. E-mail: biljana@ekof.bg.ac.rsInstitute of Social Sciences – Demographic Research Centre, Belgrade, Serbia.E-mail: penev@orion.rs***This paper is a result of the projects: “The political identity of Serbia in the local and globalcontext” (No. 179076) and “Investigation of demographic phenomena in the function ofpublic policies in Serbia” (No. 47006), funded by the Ministry of Education, Science andTechnological Development of the Republic of Serbia.**** On the occasion of the centenary of the First World War the Faculty of Economics –University of Belgrade has organised an international conference on the economic causesand consequences of this historical event in September 2014. The Editorial Board ofEconomic Annals is thankful to the authors who offered an advanced version of their paperpresented at the conference for publishing in our journal.***29
Economic Annals, Volume LIX, No.203 / October – December 20141. THE IMPACT OF WAR ON POPULATIONMany factors can disrupt the regular development of demographic processes; thehistory of human populations records their presence in all periods and virtuallyno population has remained unaffected. In certain periods epidemics led to veryhigh fatalities, contributing to an increase in total mortality as well as a decreasein the number of births. A lack of basic sources of nutrition as well as famine,which often appeared in tandem with contagious diseases, had a similar impacton mortality rates. In addition to these factors, populations and their developmenthave also been significantly impacted by wars. Depending on their dimension,length, and severity, the consequences of war for populations can extend severaldecades after the conflict. The impact of World War I on the population of Europecaused an almost seismic shift (Livi-Bacci, 2001). The latest estimates state that 74million men were mobilized, of which 10 million or 14% lost their lives (Héran,2014), including approximately 8% of all male workers. In addition to thosewho died on the battlefield, there were a large number of wounded soldiers. It isestimated that 7 million men were permanently disabled and a further 15 millionwere seriously wounded (Aldcroft, 1977, p.13). There were also human casualtiesamong the civilian population: bombings, imprisonment, epidemics, hunger, anddifficult living conditions led to an increase in mortality. Military and civilianlosses, along with other indirect losses caused by the Great War, determined thedemographic situation in Europe, especially in specific countries, of which Serbiais one. A large number of victims as well as overall demographic losses, especiallyin relation to the total population at the time, place Serbia in the lead in terms ofthe number of lives lost.In demographic research, the relation between human populations and waris usually observed through war’s consequences for the population. Theseconsequences are also the most evident part of the relationship. Wars directlyimpact the size of the population because they impact all three dynamiccomponents of population growth: deaths, births, and migrations. Thecomposition of populations impacted by war is also significantly changed, withthe greatest changes happening in the age and sex structures. The consequencesof large changes in the age structure, as a rule, last for a long time and have a longterm effect on demographic development.Wars directly impact the overall mortality level. The number of deaths significantlysurpasses the regular mortality level. In addition to military deaths related tosoldiers who are killed, died, or disappeared, civilians. Military casualties areprimarily younger middle-aged men who are at the optimal age for human30
DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES OF SERBIA IN WORLD WAR Ireproduction as well as economic activity, which increases the effect of the losses.The reliability of data on military losses, especially on the battlefield, which arebased on war reports, is significantly greater than for civilian casualties. Forcedmigration of civilian populations, refugees, and sometimes also an unclearseparation of civilian and military casualties, all impact the reliability of civilianestimates.An indirect effect of war on the population and its development relates to births.In times of crisis and difficulty brought on by war, births decrease as a result oflowered nuptiality as well as the decisions of couples to postpone births in warcircumstances. The consequences of war on births are evident during war buttheir effect extends to many years later: the deficit of live births in one period willbe reflected in a reduced number of fertile women participating in reproduction25 years later. Even if the fertility rates of these women do not change, the numberof live births will be lower. Thus the demographic losses of war include populationlosses due to increased mortality and losses in the number of births during thewar. Estimates state that demographic losses in Europe (excluding Russia) duringWorld War I equalled 7% of the total pre-war population (Aldcroft, 1977, p. 15).On the other hand, after a relatively long period of lowered birth rates, as wasthe case in both world wars, a so-called compensation period usually follows.The number of live births increases, which does not coincide with an increasein fertility rates of the generations participating in reproduction. Gradually,regularity in natural processes is established in the direction which existed beforethe war. Of particular interest for demographers is the question of the amountof time that it takes for this happen. How long will it take for the population toreach pre-war numbers? Or, even more importantly, how long will it take for thepopulation to reach the size it would have reached if there had been no war?Wars also impact changes in migratory movements. Forced migrations anddisplacement of civil populations during war are unavoidable. These are oftenpermanent migrations with a significant impact on population size. Migrationgains a new, and maybe even more important, dimension after the war ends. Thisis especially true for conflicts such as a world war, after which borders are usuallyre-defined. The consequences can be massive emigration from certain territories,usually ethnically motivated. At the same time, by adding new territories, newlyformed states can experience a significant population increase, as happened atthe end of the Great War. In November 1918 the regions of Banat, Bačka, andBaranja (in Vojvodina) were joined to the Kingdom of Serbia, and under the 1919Treaty of Neuilly certain Bulgarian territories were also added (Map 1).31
Economic Annals, Volume LIX, No.203 / October – December 2014In addition to their impact on population dynamics, wars also have a marked effecton demographic structures. Age and sex structures are directly affected. Militarylosses in wars are primarily among the male population. Thus, immediately afterwars a certain deficit of men appears and the usual sex ratio in the populationchanges. This deficiency of men is especially pronounced in age groups thatare the most numerous among mobilized, military-capable men. However, thedeformation of the age structure as a consequence of wars is a result of both thedirect and indirect effects of war. The deficit in certain generations (so-calleddepleted cohorts) is a consequence of direct military casualties and is expressedin the male population of those generations who suffered the most. However,numerically smaller generations are also a consequence of a deficit in live birthsin wartime. Such generations are evident in both male and female populations.Immediately after war, the deficit in live births impacts the population deficit inthe first age group (0-4). For precisely this reason, the consequences of wars onage structure are long-term and examining them requires long-term observation.2. ESTIMATES OF WAR LOSSES IN THE POPULATION OF SERBIASo far there has been no census of Serbia’s human losses in World War I.Certain records exist, especially those relating to military victims, but they areincompletely and insufficiently systematized. Therefore, to explore Serbia’s lossesit is necessary to take into account estimates that were mostly made between thetwo World Wars, especially in the first several years after the truce of November11th, 1918.The first estimates of Serbian military losses appeared in the first year after thesigning of the truce. Later, especially in the years before World War II, otherestimates of Serbia’s human losses in the Great War were published, but these toowere arbitrary and unscientific, insufficiently argued, and very rarely based onreliable data, despite the greater time distance. Estimates differed in terms of theapplied method, scope (military, civil, or demographic losses), territory (e.g., allof Serbia, but with different borders; part of Serbia together with Montenegro),and period that the estimates refer to (if dealing with estimates of overalldemographic losses). Therefore it is not surprising that existing estimates differsignificantly, but it is nevertheless surprising that the ratio between minimal andmaximal estimates of the number of deaths in Serbia during World War I reaches1:18 (Grčić, 2007).32
DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES OF SERBIA IN WORLD WAR I2.1. O fficial estimate of the Delegation of the Kingdom of SCSat the Paris Peace Conference of 1919On March 31st, 1919, i.e., less than fivemonths after the war, the Kingdom ofSerbs, Croats and Slovenes (Kingdomof SCS) presented the official estimatesof Serbia’s military and civil populationlosses and overall demographic lossescaused by World War I, relating to theperiod January 1st, 1914 to April 1st,1919.These estimates were presented as partof the Report on War Damage Causedto Serbia and Montenegro, submitted bythe Delegation of the Kingdom of SCSto the Reparation Commission at thePeace Conference held in Paris fromJanuary 18th, 1991 to January 21st, 1920.Although the introduction to the Reportstates that the estimate of damages refers to Serbia and Montenegro, damagesrelated to human losses refer exclusively to Serbia’s population losses withoutMontenegro, and only to those within the pre-war borders - the territory of theKingdom of Serbia at the beginning of the First Balkan War (1912) together withthe territory annexed at the end of the Second Balkan war (according to theBucharest treaty of 1913 - Map 1).In the Report of the Delegation of the Kingdom of SCS, all direct human lossesare classified into two large groups: military and civil (Délégation du Royaumedes Serbes, Croates et Slovènes, 1919). Data is also presented on the number ofinvalids and prisoners. Estimates of overall demographic losses, which includea hypothetical decrease in the number of live births during war years, are alsoincluded.Direct military losses comprise soldiers killed, died, and disappeared duringmilitary operations, soldiers who were killed or died in captivity, and deceased,wounded, and ill soldiers who remained in Serbia after the retreat of the Serbianarmy across Albania. The military losses are also presented by period.33
Economic Annals, Volume LIX, No.203 / October – December 2014Map 1. Serbia in 1919 (after the Treaty of Neuilly)and territorial changes since 1804Source: Vrućinić (2007), p.7634
DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES OF SERBIA IN WORLD WAR IData on military losses is very precise, but the Report does not specify data sourcesor their trustworthiness. The Report also does not specify whether overall Serbianmilitary losses include Yugoslav volunteers from abroad (mostly from the USA),a total of 55,800.Table 1. Military losses of Serbia, according to the Report of the Delegation ofthe Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes atParis Peace Conference 1919-1920Causes1 Killed, dead and missingKilled, dead and missing during2retreat through Albania3 Killed and missing during 1916-19184 Killed and dead in captivityDeaths among men, wounded or sick,5 remained in the country after theretreat of the Serbian armyTotalUp to September 1915Numberof deaths172,508(Oct. 1915 - Jan. 1916)77,455(Feb. 1916 - Nov. 1918)(July 1914 - Nov. 1918)36,47781,214(Oct. 1915 - Dec. 1916)34,781TimeJuly 1914 - Nov. 1918402,435Source: Rapport sur le Dommages de Guerre causés à la Serbie et au Monténégro présenté à laCommission des Réparations des Dommages, Paris, 1919.Additional data listed in the Report testifies to the enormous losses of the Serbianarmy, and points out that Serbia mobilized 712,005 men during World War I (notincluding volunteers from abroad). This means that Serbian military deaths in theGreat War of 1914-1918 amounted to over 50% (56.5% not including volunteers,or 52.4% including volunteers from abroad).The Report also lists civilian losses, but not as precisely as in the case of militarydeaths. Civilians were victims of bombings, occupiers’ crimes (mass executions),infectious diseases, lack of medicine, deportation and difficult conditions inconcentration camps, forced mobilizations, hunger, etc. For example, it is notedthat in 1917 Bulgarian occupiers massacred 20,000 civilians in Toplica districtalone (p. 10); that during three years of occupation of Serbia, approximately182,000 persons were interned or deported to Bulgaria, Austro-Hungary, orGermany, and that of these, 80,000 died during transportation or were killed inconcentration camps (p. 22). Especially large losses were caused by the epidemictyphus which in 1915 alone killed 350,000 civilians (p. 5). Concrete estimates ofcivilian deaths by cause, year, sex, and age are presented in Table 2.35
Economic Annals, Volume LIX, No.203 / October – December 2014Table 2. Civilian deaths in Serbia, according to the Report of the Delegationof the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes atthe Paris Peace Conference 1919-1920CausesKilled and dead1 during the first andsecond invasionsKilled and deadduring retreat2 through Albaniaand during return toSerbiaKilled by enemies in3SerbiaKilled and deadduring deportation toconcentration camps4and during forcedlabour in enemycountriesDeaths caused by5epidemic diseasesDeaths caused by6 famine during theoccupation of SerbiaTotalPeriodNumber of deathsMalesTotal aged 15 Othersor over191415,0006,0009,000(Oct. 1915 - Jan. 1916)140,00060,00080,000(July 1914 - Oct. 1918)70,00025,00045,000(July 1914 - Nov. 1918)80,00030,00050,0001914, 1915360,000 130,000 230,000(Oct. 1915 - Oct. 1918) 180,00060,000 120,000845,000 311,000 534,000Source: Rapport sur le Dommages de Guerre causés à la Serbie et au Monténégro présenté à laCommission des Réparations des Dommages, Paris, 1919In addition to direct and indirect military and civilian losses, the Report alsoestimates so-called total demographic losses caused by World War I. Accordingto the Report, Serbia had 3,300,000 inhabitants in the spring of 19191. It is alsoestimated that at the start of World War I (mid-1914) Serbia had 4.5 millionwithin the borders defined by the Bucharest peace of 1913. This means that at136The Report is dated March 31st, 1919.
DEMOGRAPHIC LOSSES OF SERBIA IN WORLD WAR Ithe end of March 1919, Serbia had 1.2 million fewer inhabitants than in 1914.However, the Report also notes that Serbia’s (direct and indirect) demographicloss due to World War I totalled 1.9 million persons. This number was based onthe assumption that, had there not been a war, Serbia would number 5.2 millionpersons in 1919. Clearly, even though this is not mentioned in the Report, thisdifference should represent not only direct military and civilian losses (1,247,435)but also demographic losses due to a decrease in the birth rate, an increase inmortality, as well as, probably, a negative net migration.Data on direct military and civilian losses are difficult to comment on or questiondue to the lack of data sources and to the starting criteria used to determinethe number of deaths, especially for civilians. This is, however, not the case withestimates of overall demographic losses due to war. First of all, it is not clear howthe estimate was made that Serbia had 3.3 million people in 1919 (1.2 millionless than in 1914), if we accept the mentioned estimate that overall direct lossesamounted to 1.25 million persons. Such a result implies that the increase inpopulation due to the birth rate in the period 1914-1918, which would representthe difference between the number of live births in the war years (not less than300,000 – Njegić, 1957, p. 52) and the number of ‘normally’ deceased individualsthat were not direct war mortalities, could only be 50,000 people. Such a smallresidual growth could be explained by the net emigration (of at least 100,000150,000 persons), but this is not mentioned in the Report.However, even if the estimate of 3.3 million Serbian inhabitants in the springof 1919 is accepted, the question remains of the basis on which it is presumedthat Serbia would have had 5.2 million persons by 1919 in normal, peacefulcircumstances. If the estimate is true, it follows that in the period of August 1914- March 1919 the ‘normal’ population growth would be 700,000 persons, and theaverage annual growth rate would be a very high 31.5 per 1,000. As an example,the average annual rate of population growth of former Northern Serbia in theperiod 1895-1910 was only 15.5 per 1,000, and in the period of 1905-1910 it was16.1 per 1,000.The aim of this paper is not the creation of new estimates of the demographiclosses of Serbia’s population caused by World War I, but the number of 1.9 milliondoes appear to be overestimated. If we presume that the data on direct militaryand civilian deaths listed in the Report is accurate, the actual number most likelywould not exceed 1.575 million.37
Economic Annals, Volume LIX, No.203 / October – December 20142.2. Estimates of the State Statistics of the Kingdom of SCSIn February of 1921, less than two and a half years after the end of World WarI, a population census was conducted in the newly formed Kingdom of Serbs,Croats, and Slovenes. This was the first complete demographic inventory of thenew state, which also allowed for the creation of a demographic balance of theGreat War, not only on territory of Serbia but also in other areas of the Kingdomof SCS which had previously belonged to the defeated Austro-Hungarian Empire(Slovenia, Croatia and Slavonia, Dalmatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Banat, Bačkaand Baranja).In his signed article p
the highest number of casualties in the First World War. According to the first estimates presented at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919, total Serbian casualties were 1,250,000, over 400,000 of which were military losses while the rest were civilian deaths. Besides direct losses, which include casualties in war events and deaths
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