REPORT - CoreLogic
TROPERELPMSACORELOGIC NEW ZEALANDMONTHLY PROPERTY MARKET& ECONOMIC UPDATEJANUARY – FEBRUARY 2017
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About CoreLogic4CoreLogic Data and Analytics6Legal Disclaimer7Macro Economic and Demographic Indicators8New Zealand Asset Classes9New Zealand Population10Migration11Regional Building Consents12Population Growth Compared to BuildingConsents13Buyer Confidence14TROEmploymentInterest Rates and Mortgage DebtHousing OverviewPERELPMSAValuesSales VolumesRent151618192021Market Activity22Valuations Completed23Listings24Buyer Classification26House Price Index27Main Cities Housing Market Indicators30Auckland Values32Current Auckland Suburb Values33Auckland Suburb Value Change34Buyer Classification - Auckland36Hamilton Values38Buyer Classification - Hamilton39Tauranga Values40Buyer Classification - Tauranga41Wellington Values42Buyer Classification - Wellington43Christchurch Values44Buyer Classification - Christchurch45Dunedin Values46Buyer Classification - Dunedin47
AboutCoreLogicCoreLogic is a leading propertyinformation, analytics and servicesprovider in the United States, Australiaand New Zealand. CoreLogic helps clientsidentify and manage growth opportunities,improve performance and mitigate risk,by providing clients with innovative,technology-based services and accessto rich data and analytics.PERELPMSATROWhilst all reasonable effort is made toensure the information in this publicationis current, CoreLogic does not warrantthe accuracy, currency or completenessof the data – and commentary containedin this publication and to the full extentnot prohibited by law excludes all loss ordamage arising in connection with thedata and commentary contained in thispublication.4
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CoreLogic Dataand AnalyticsCoreLogic Buyer ClassificationA unique and flagship product toCoreLogic, Buyer Classification determinesthe type of buyer for every purchaseof property based on their current andprevious ownership of NZ property.Created at a record level, this can bematched to other datasets or summarisedat any geographic area.The Quarterly CoreLogic House Price Indexhas been specifically designed to trackthe value of a portfolio of properties overtime and is relied upon by New Zealandregulators and industry as the mostaccurate measurement of housing marketperformance. These value measures areavailable for long time series and for eitherstandard or custom geographic areas andproperty types.TROPERELPMSAOur buyer classification is used byfinancial institutions and Governmentagencies at both record and summarylevel and overlaid with their own data toassist strategic, policy, compliance, riskmanagement and marketing decisions.CoreLogic value measuresCoreLogic has a suite of products tomeasure property prices. This ranges fromsimple market measurements such asmedian or average sales prices throughto stratified medians, various house priceindices, and valuing groups of propertiesusing Automated Valuation Models suchas E-valuer. The house price indices areavailable both quarterly for completenessand monthly for reactivity.Suburb scorecardDetailed housing market indicators atsuburb level, with data either in time seriesor current snapshot, and segmentedacross houses, flats and apartments.The Suburb Scorecard data includes keyhousing market metrics such as medianprices, median values, transaction volumes,rental statistics and market metrics such asmedian selling time.If you would like to know more or obtain tailored data, analytics and insights foryour business, please email us at reports@corelogic.co.nz.6
LegalDisclaimerCopyrightData & Research publications Copyright 2016. CoreLogic NZ Limited(CoreLogic) and its licensors are the soleand exclusive owners of all rights, title andinterest (including intellectual propertyrights) subsisting in this publication,including any data, analytics, statisticsand other information contained in thispublication (Data). All rights reserved.Whilst all reasonable effort is made toensure the information in this publicationis current, CoreLogic does not warrantthe accuracy, currency or completenessof the Data and commentary containedin this publication and to the full extentnot prohibited by law excludes all loss ordamage arising in connection with theData and commentary contained in thispublication.TROPERELPMSAYou acknowledge and agree thatCoreLogic does not provide anyinvestment, legal, financial or taxationadvice as to the suitability of any propertyand this publication should not be reliedupon in lieu of appropriate professionaladvice.Published date: 30 January 2017ContactCall us 0800 355 355Email reports@corelogic.co.nzWellington officeAuckland officeLevel 2Level 21275 Cuba Street151 Queen StreetPO Box 4072Auckland 1010Wellington 6140www.corelogic.co.nz7
Macro Economic andDemographic IndicatorsTROPERELPMSA8
New ZealandAsset ClassesThe value ofResidential propertycontinues to growbeyond one trilliondollars, dwarfingthe value of otherasset classes.Listed stocks peakedlast September,dropped throughuntil the USpresidential electionin November, thenrebounded, but havebeen flat for the pastfew weeks.TROResidential Real Estate 1.01trillion( 229 billion in home loans)P 161 billion ERELPM 117 billionCommercial/Industrial Real EstateSANZ Listed StocksNZ Super and KiwiSaver 65.7 billionSource: CoreLogic NZ, Reserve Bank of NZ, NZX, NZ Superfund, Financial Markets Authority9
New Zealand PopulationQuarterly Change in National PopulationNew Zealand’spopulation continuesto grow strongly,fuelled by continuingstrong net migration.Auckland’spopulation accountedfor nearly half of thenational growth overthe past year, butall the other maincentres also sawpopulation increases,putting pressure onhousing supply.TROPERELPMSAPopulation Change CompositionAnnual Change in PopulationSource: Statistics New Zealand10
MigrationLong Term MigrationNet migration hascontinued to surgeaway at recordhigh levels. Theprojected slowdownin mid-2016 failedto materialise andwe are once againseeing recordarrivals combinedwith comparativelylow numbers ofdepartures.TROPERELPMSALikewise we arecontinuing to seea net gain in peoplefrom Australia asKiwis either returnhome or are notheading over theditch for jobs andlifestyle in thenumbers theyused to.Monthly Net Migration Between New Zealand and AustraliaWhile Auckland isthe main beneficiaryof this strong netmigration, there werealso significant gainsin Wellington andChristchurch over thepast year.Net Gain Last Year% ChangeTOTAL ALL AREAS69,95414.2%Auckland Region32,76815.4%Hamilton City1,58112.8%Tauranga City1,18833.0%Wellington3,11469.3%Christchurch City5,674-1.0%Dunedin City72021.6%Main Urban Area (Other)5,607144.4%Rural Centres4,293114.6%Not applicable/Not stated15,009101.7%Source: Statistics New Zealand11
RegionalBuilding ConsentsNew Dwelling Consents TrendThe trend for newbuilding consents inAuckland continuesto be stronglypositive. It is likelythat once theDecember stats comethrough that theywill show buildingconsents in Aucklandto be the strongestsince 2004.TROPERELPMSAHowever bear inmind that it takessome time for theseconsents to translateinto new dwellingsbuilt.Consent activityis also up acrossmost of the rest ofthe country, withthe exception ofCanterbury.Source: Statistics New ZealandIn order to build enough houses in Auckland to meet current and future demand, thehigh level of current activity needs to increase further, then hold for several years. Ashortage of skilled workers, increasing costs, time delays, and quality issues are howeveralready starting to emerge in the Auckland market, so there are clearly challenges to beovercome in order to step up the rate of building.12
Population GrowthCompared to BuildingConsentsQuarterly Population Change and Building Consents NationwideThe increase inbuilding consentsfor new dwellings hasmeant that the gapbetween populationgrowth and housingsupply may begin toclose.The time lagbetween a consentbeing issued andthe dwelling beingfinished means thatit still may be manymonths or even yearsbefore this translatesinto a physicalclosing of the gap.TROPERELPMSASource: Statistics New Zealand, MBIEThe above calculation assumes 80% of dwellings consented are completed and will housethe current average number of people (2.7 people per house).For example, over the year to July 2016 there were 31,185 dwellings consented (able tohouse 67,360 people), and an increase in population of 97,300, leaving a difference ofaround 30,000 too many people for dwellings.13
Buyer ConfidenceANZ — Roy Morgan Consumer ConfidenceConsumer confidenceis still stronglyoptimistic. Thispositivity not onlyreflects views ofthe current state,but also of futureexpectations.TROConfidence has risenoutside of Aucklandon the back of muchstronger dairy pricesand strong regionaleconomies. People’sexpectations ofhouse price increaseshave eased a little.PERELPMSAThe gap betweenNew Zealand andAustralian consumerconfidence continuesto widen. Thiscould be part of theexplanation for thecontinued positivenet migrationbetween Australiaand New Zealand aspeople see betterprospects here thanacross the Tasman forthe time being.Source: ANZ NZ, Roy MorganTrans-Tasman Consumer Confidence IndexNew ZealandAustralia14Source: Westpac NZ, McDermott Miller
EmploymentAnnual Change in Employment, Full-time and Part-timeFull and part-timeemployment bothremain up on lastyear. This along withan increased labourforce participationrate and droppingunemploymentindicate a healthyemploymentlandscape.TROPERELPMSAWhile employmentremains strongpeople can continueto get and payhome loans and socontribute to a stronghousing market.A significantweakening of thelabour market wouldflow through tohousing, but there isno sign of that yet.Labour Force Participation RateUnemployment RateSource: Statistics New Zealand15
Interest Ratesand Mortgage DebtMortgage Interest RatesRetail mortgageinterest rates are nowpast their historiclows and beginningto creep upwards asthe cost of offshorefunding increases.TROThe Official CashRate (OCR) set bythe Reserve Bank isunlikely to change inthe medium term, soit will be this offshorefunding alonepushing up rates. Asa result mortgageinterest rates lookset to remain low forsome time yet.PERELPMSAProjected Official Cash RateThese low interestrates continue tomake the record highlevel total householddebt manageable, asituation only likelyto change wheninterest rates risesignificantly. Thatwould appear tobe some years offyet under currentexpected globalfinancial conditions.Debt Level and ServiceabilitySource: Reserve Bank of New Zealand16
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Housing OverviewTROPERELPMSA18
ValuesAverage Value of Housing Stock - New ZealandNationwide valuesare still increasingaccording to thelatest monthly QVhouse price index.The rate of quarterlygrowth has slowedto only 1.3% butthe annual rate ofincrease holdssteady at 12%.TROPERELPMSAThe previous roundof LVR restrictions inOctober 2015 saw asimilar slowdown invalue increases,but they werevery short-lived.That remains ourexpectation with thelatest restrictionsthat came into forcelate last year, andwhile values maydrop a little furtherin coming monthsthey will likely beginto increase again bymid-year.Annual and Quarterly Change in Value19
Sales VolumesNationwide Sales VolumesSales volumesdropped throughoutmost of 2016, andby mid-year hadbegun to drop belowthe same month ayear earlier. Thisdownward trend insales volumes wasalready well in playby the time the latestrestrictions kicked in.TROPERELPMSAThe previously hotmarkets of Hamiltonand Tauranga sawthe biggest annualdrop in sales activity,while Auckland andWellington had amore modest drop.Christchurch andDunedin were moreor less steady yearon year.Nationwide Annual Changein Sales Volumes20Regional Sales VolumesYear-on-Year
RentNational Annual Change in Value and RentWhile the pace ofvalue increase hasslowed, the rateof rent increaseshas gradually beenpicking up. Thiscould be landlordsseeking to offsetthe increased costof lending fromthe latest round ofrestrictions imposedby the Reserve Bank.TROPERELPMSAAs a result of theincreasing rents,nationwide grossyield has been flat forthe past few months,a change from thedecline in yieldswhich began in 2011.All the main centreshave lower yieldsthan this timelast year as valueincreases have stilloutstripped rentincreases.Gross Rental Yield - NationalGross Rental Yield - Main CentresSource: MBIE, CoreLogic NZ21
Market ActivityMarket Activity Relative to pre-Christmas 2015There has been asignificant declinein market activityin Auckland sinceNovember. The firstfew weeks of the NewYear have been wellbelow the same timelast year.TROThis suggests thatthe latest round oflending restrictionsare particularlyimpacting Aucklandbuyers. The restof the country hasrebounded topre-Christmas levels,but this does varyin places.PERELPMSALatest 3 Weeks Year-on-YearAuckland82%Hamilton City88%Tauranga City88%Wellington Region106%Christchurch City88%Dunedin City124%This market activity is based on the number of automated valuations run by bank staffusing our systems each week. This number of valuations correlates very closely to thenumber of sales that will subsequently occur so this is an extremely timely measureof buyer demand, more than any measure of sales. We can also track across anygeographic area.22
Valuations CompletedMarket ActivityThis map showsactivity in thelatest three weekscompared to thesame three weekslast year.TROCompared to a yearago activity is downin Auckland, steadyin the middle of theNorth Island, and upyear on year in thelower part.PERELPMSAIn the South Islandactivity is steady inmany areas, but up inMarlborough, Nelson,and much of Otagoand Southland.* Size of bubble represents the level of activityfor the period 2 January 2017 - 22 January 201723
ListingsNew ListingsNew listings havebegun to pick upagain after theChristmas break.It is still too early toget a decent readon how the year hasstarted, but in bothAuckland and therest of the countrythe number of newlistings appears to beat expected levels.TROPERELPMSA24New ListingsAverage last 3 weeks1 month change1 year changeNew %12%Bay of 2%-12%Otago50-35%-23%
Total ListingsThe total numberof listings typicallydrops away at thistime of year as thesales activity thatcarries on overDecember andJanuary outstripsthe number of newlistings coming tomarket.TROPERELPMSAFrom about lateJanuary onwardsthe total number oflistings begins to pickup again with theseasonal surge in newlistings.The total number oflistings in Aucklandis similar to last year.But that is no goodthing as total listingshave been low forseveral years inAuckland, making ittough for buyers.Across the rest of thecountry total listingscontinue to dropbecause there havebeen more sales thannew listings.Total ListingsLatest week1 month change1 year changeNew 14-6%-20%Bay of 4,297-7%-11%Otago1,025-8%-41%25
Buyer ClassificationBuyer Classification - New ZealandThe data for Q4 isnow complete andwe are beginning tosee the first signs of aweakening in investoractivity in responseto the latest lendingrestrictions.TROMover activitycontinues to be underpar, while first homebuyers are now backat the same levelthey were before thefirst round of LVRrestrictions came into force in late 2013.PERELPMSA26
House Price IndexAverage Dwelling ValueValues in Aucklanddropped inDecember, asthey did briefly inresponse to previouslending restrictions.TROHamilton has alsolevelled off, andthe latest data wehave suggests thatTauranga is doinglikewise.PERELPMSAThat is a big changefrom the rapidgrowth both of thosecities experiencedlast year. The rateof growth has alsoslowed in Wellington,but in Dunedin thesteady increases invalue seem to becontinuing.December 2016Current Value3 months12 monthsSince PeakNew Zealand 627,9051.3%12%52%Auckland 1,047,1791.5%12%92%Hamilton 534,8601.1%20%48%Tauranga 672,1974.3%24%40%Wellington 574,4103.9%21%26%Christchurch 494,247-0.3%3%30%Dunedin 354,1334.4%15%24%Source: CoreLogic NZ QV Monthly House price index27
House Price IndexAnnual Value ChangeOver the past yearvalues have beenincreasing in almostevery town and city,the notable exceptionbeing Canterbury.There wasparticularly stronggrowth in theareas surroundingAuckland, the lowerNorth Island, and inQueenstown LakesDistrict.TROPERELPMSA*Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the Territorial Authority28
Three Month Value ChangeThe three monthchange in valuesbegins to show apatchier picture.Parts of Auckland areno longer increasing,along with Hamiltonand parts of thecentral North Island.For the time beingthere is continuingstrength in mostother areas butwe expect thatto moderate overthe next couple ofmonths.TROPERELPMSA*Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the Territorial Authority29
Main Cities HousingMarket IndicatorsTROPERELPMSA30
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Auckland ValuesAverage Value of Housing Stock - AucklandThe house priceindex for Decemberdropped fromNovember, and as aresult the change invalues over the pastthree and twelvemonths has slowedconsiderably acrossAuckland.TROThe previous roundof LVR restrictionsin October 2015targeted at Aucklandcaused a short termdrop in values andwe expect that overthe coming monthsvalues will continueto drop.PERELPMSAAnnual and Quarterly Value Change - AucklandBeyond that theupward forces oflow interest rates,high migration anda housing shortageare likely to onceagain see values inAuckland begin torise from mid-year,although at a moremodest pace thanwe have seen inrecent years.December 201632Current Value3 months12 monthsSince PeakRodney 929,1623.8%14%58%North Shore 1,218,2540.9%12%89%Waitakere 840,6392.0%12%98%Auckland City 1,218,9792.0%11%96%Manukau 904,5161.0%14%98%Papakura 681,9532.1%13%90%Franklin 659,9064.9%14%67%
Current AucklandSuburb ValuesMedian Value of Housing StockAs a result ofincreasing valuesthere are now nosuburbs in Aucklandwhere the averagevalue is less than 500k.20 kmThese may brieflyreturn if valuescontinue to dropin Auckland. 104Auckland suburbshave an averagevalue of over 1m.TRO10 kmPERELPMSA*Based on CoreLogic Median E-valuer33
Auckland SuburbValue ChangeThree Month Value ChangeWhile all Aucklandsuburbs are showingan increase invalue over the pastyear, the fastestpercentage growthhas been acrossManukau and inthe CBD apartmentmarket.TROPERELPMSA*Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the suburb. Based on CoreLogic Median E-valuer34
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Buyer Classification - AucklandAuckland investoractivity has begun totail off in responseto the latest lendingrestrictions.First home buyerspicked up in Q4 aftergradually slidingduring 2016 and arenow nearly back atthe same level theywere before thefirst round of LVRrestrictions wereimposed in 2013.TROPERELPMSA36
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Hamilton ValuesAverage Value of Housing Stock - HamiltonThere has beena significantturnaround in valueincreases in Hamilton.From increasing at30% year on yearduring 2016, thehouse price indexfor December showsvalues droppingslightly.TROThe slowdown isparticularly evident inthe Central and NorthWest of Hamiltonwhere quarterlygrowth has nowdropped to under 1%.PERELPMSAAnnual and Quarterly Change in Value - HamiltonDecember 201638Current Value3 months12 monthsSince PeakHamilton Central& North West 499,7010.9%20%40%Hamilton North East 681,2720.6%21%52%Hamilton South East 484,5661.4%19%39%Hamilton South West 467,4351.2%19%37%
Buyer Classification - HamiltonThere has been achange in mix of thetype of investorsactive in the Hamiltonmarket.The latest quarterhas seen a significantdrop in activity fromAuckland basedinvestors. That slackhas been picked upby local investorswho were
corelogic new zealand monthly property market & economic update. january – february 2017. report
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