OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK: BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRY
OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK:BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRYLeticia PhillipsRepresentative, North AmericaWashington,August 1, 2012
KEY NUMBERS - BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR Number of mills: 413 Sugarcane growers: 70,000 Direct employment: 1.18 million Sector annual revenue: US 28 billion Foreign Revenue (Exports): US 16.2 billion % Energy Matrix: 18% - 2nd source (behind oil)and 1st source of renewable energy1st SUGAR PRODUCER IN THE WORLD 25% of world production 50% of world exports2nd ETHANOL PRODUCER IN THE WORLD 20% of world production 20% of world exportsFonte: LMC, F.O.Licht’s, Secex, UNICA e Rais.
BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX INPUTWorld Energy Supply Structure (%)45.5OtherCoal and renewablesderivatives4.0%Uranium5.2%1.4%Natural Gas10.3%Wood es37.6%Sugarcane17.8 %12.97.687.192.454.5Brazil (2010) World (2008) OECD (2009)Non-renewable#1 Source of Renewable Energy in BR(million toe)5040302010001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Toe: tons of oil equivalentSource: Balanço Energético nacional BEN (2011) and International Energy Agency. Key World Statistics 2010. Elaboration: UNICA
MULTIPLE SUGARCANE USESugar for domestic marketEthanol for domestic fuel marketEthanol exportsDetergents,solventslubricantsSugar exportsOther usesBioeletricityDiesel from sugarcane
LAND USE IN BRAZILMillion Ha*Total AreaNative VegetationLand in Actual UseOther Uses85155426038100%65%30%5%ConservationPermanent Other NativeUnits and ILs Protected Areas Vegetation20413521424%16%25%Pastures Crop Land19860Sugarcane23%7%9.5SugarcaneFOR ETHANOL1%4.60.5%Ethanol Productivity16.00012.0008.0004.000Source: ICONE, Gerd Sparovek, IBGE, MMA, INPE/TerraClass, Embrapa, PAM2010.Elaboration: Cosan and UNICA.Note: ILs Indigenous Lands. Other Native Vegetation include Legal Reserves (RLs)070 sTodayFuture
SUGARCANE AGROECOLOGICAL ZONING IN BRAZIL1. Excludes sugarcane production inthe most sensitive biomes, e.g.Amazonia and Pantanal.2. Excludes any type of nativevegetation for sugarcaneexpansion, e.g. Cerrados, Campos.3. Feasible areas for sugarcaneexpansion: 64.7 m hectares, or 7.5%of the Brazilian territory. Currently 1%of the area is used for sugarcane.
NATIONAL SUGARCANE CRUSHINGSUGAR AND ETHANOL: HISTORICAL OVERVIEWOverview of35Sugar (million tons)Ethanol (billion liters)FFVthe lastdecadeProalcool program1st phase: stronggovernmentintervention; pureethanol vehicles 030015200101005SugarcaneSource: UNICA and MAPA. Note: 11/12* - estimated /8077/78075/760Sugarcane (million tons)45
NATIONAL LIGHT VEHICLE FLEETToday, 12 automakers offer over 90 models of flex fuelvehicles, which already account for 50% of the Brazilian lightvehicle fleet.6050Millions403081%201051%02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Flex fuelSource: UNICA.GasolineEthanol (only)
DECADE OVERVIEW1. World vehiclesacquisitionsinvolving affected companies financialLaunch of crisisflex fuelin 2003 Globalinterestinin threeethanol2. Weatherproblemsconsecutive harvestsStagnation10.5%a.a.7003. Loss ofEthanol:domesticcompetitivenessfor ethanol compared to gasolineSugar:8.9% a.a.Million tons600560 MT500400300200100SugarEthanol - exportsSourcee: UNICA and Ministry of Agriculture,Livestock and Supply. Nota: 11/12 – estimateEthanol - domestic 05/062004/052003/042002/032001/022000/01-
POTENTIAL OF CELLULOSIC ETHANOL IN BRAZILConventionalConventional Cellulose1 hectareCANE JUICE MOLASSES1 hectareCANE JUICE MOLASSES BAGASSE STRAW1850 G3302 G( 78%)or moreProject in Alagoas 21.6 MG Start of Production 2013/14;with bagasse straw approximately 35% increase inproductivity (technology M&G, DSM, Novozymes)
TECHNOLOGY STATUSProductLaboratoryPilot PlantDemonstrationPlantMarketEthanol 1stgenerationEthanol 2ndgenerationBioHC (Diesel, JetFuel etc)Butanol 2ndgenerationCommercial scale plants are expected to start operation within next two-threeyears but it will take close to a decade until production reach significantvolumes. Could this time be shortened by better technologies?!
PRODUCTION EVOLUTION IN THE CENTER-SOUTH REGIONIN çúcar ¹218.279170.561Açúcar ¹11.988Etanol anidro ,73%Etanol hidratado ²5.5604.292-22,81%1.031930-9,81%Etanol total ²8.7246.423-26,37%1.6461.605-2,50%ATR ¹27.43520.709-24,51%5.5185.506-0,21%ATR/ tonelada de cana Litros etanol/ tonelada de cana39,9737,66-5,78%40,5738,05-6,20%Kg açúcar/ tonelada de cana54,9254,68-0,44%63,7162,49-1,91%Mix (%)Variação (%)Fonte: UNICA. Nota: ¹ - mil toneladas; ² - milhões de litros; ³ - kg de ATR/ tonelada de cana; dados sujeitos a pequenos ajustes.Variação (%)
SALES OF FUEL ETHANOL BY THE CENTER-SOUTH MILLSAmount in thousand LMêsETANOL ANIDROETANOL HIDRATADOETANOL onte: UNICA. Nota: as vendas no mercado interno de etanol anidro incluem as importações por produtores e não produtores. "Jul*" refere-se à primeira quinzena deJulho.
SALES OF ETHANOL FOR EXPORT BY THE CENTER-SOUTHMILLSAmount in thousand littersMêsETANOL ANIDROETANOL HIDRATADOETANOL 4,0%Fonte: UNICA. Nota: "Jul*" refere-se à primeira quinzena de Julho.
TOTAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY OF THE CENTERSOUTH CANE FIELS7876.47676.876.876.775.174.9747272.7Smaller productivity in the beginning ofthe harvest was compensated by thegains observed in the last two months.7069.76866abrilmaioSafra 2011/2012junhojulho*pSafra 2012/2013Fonte: CTC. Elaboração: UNICA. Nota: “julho* ”os valores da produtividade refere-se ao levantamento realizado nos primeiros 15dias do mês.
MONTHLY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY OF THECENTER-SOUTH CANE FIELDS8280.28078ton cana/ha7676.776.273.87475.471.67270 12%75.169.7686664abrilmaioSafra 2011/2012junhojulho*Safra 2012/2013Fonte: CTC. Elaboração: UNICA. Nota: “julho” os valores da produtividade refere-se ao levantamento realizado nos primeiros 15dias do mês.
OUTLOOK OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF ETHANOL FOR THE2012/2013 HARVEST (APRIL/MARCH)Bilhões de 325,2%Etanol anidro8,377,63-0,74-8,8%Etanol hidratado11,2612,140,887,8%Etanol total19,6319,770,140,7%Gasolina C36,7938,481,694,6%Gasolina A28,4230,852,428,5%Vol.%DEMANDA CICLO OTTO (exceto GNV)Volume em gasolina eq.CONSUMO DE ETANOLCONSUMO DE GASOLINAFonte: UNICA.
U.S. RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD (RFS-2)40Sugarcane Ethanol isAdvancedRenewable Fuel with61% GHG Reduction35Billions of Gallons3025GHG20151050LOWER20092010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Celulosic Advanced0.10 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.75 3.00 4.25 5.50 7.00 8.50 10.50 13.50 16.00Biomass-based Diesel0.50 0.65 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00Non-celulosic Advanced 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.00Conventional Biofuels10.50 12.00 12.60 13.20 13.80 14.40 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00Source: EISA of 2008, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (RFS-2) Final Rule.
LCFS WITH “INDIRECT LAND USE”PENALTYDespite Modeling Errors, Sugarcane Ethanol is Lowest Carbon LiquidGrams of CO2 per megajouleFuelFonte: California Air Resources Board’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
Thank youwww.unica.com.br/enwww.sugarcane.org
BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE INDUSTRY . Fonte: LMC, F.O.Licht’s, Secex, UNICA e Rais. . SUGAR AND ETHANOL: HISTORICAL OVERVIEW Overview of the last decade. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 . CANE JUICE MOLASSES CANE JUICE MOLASSES BAGASSE STRAW 3302 G( 78%) or more POTENTIAL OF CELLULOSIC ETHANOL IN BRAZIL Project in Alagoas 21.6 MG Start of Production 2013 .
8 Sugarcane plantation area change by province, 2011. 15 9 World producers of sugarcane, 2011 (thousand tonnes). 15 10 Global consumption of sugarcane, 2011/2012 (thousand tonnes). 16 11 Sources of Indonesia's sugarcane imports, 2011 (tonnes). 16 12 Indonesian exports of sugarcane, 2011 (tonnes). 17 13 Cassava plantation area, 1990-2011. 18
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