City Of Palo Alto (ID # 10335) City Council Staff Report
City of Palo Alto(ID # 10335)City Council Staff ReportReport Type: Study SessionMeeting Date: 5/13/2019Council Priority: Transportation and TrafficSummary Title: Caltrain Business Plan Review and DiscussionTitle: Presentation and Discussion With the Peninsula Corridor Joint PowersBoard (Caltrain) Staff Regarding the 2040 Caltrain Business PlanFrom: City ManagerLead Department: TransportationRecommendationStaff recommends that City Council receive a presentation and discuss the 2040 CaltrainBusiness Plan with the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board (Caltrain).DiscussionIn 2018, Caltrain began the Caltrain Business Plan discussions with initial workshopsinvolving key local, regional, and state stakeholders. Development of the Business Planis a joint effort with agency partners and communities along the corridor to plan forchanges in housing and jobs in San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties.The intent of the business plan is to understand and plan for future transportationneeds in the region. The Business Plan accounts for Caltrain electrification that providesfor increased train service.The City Council requested this presentation.Recent Documents Related to the Business Plan: The May Quarterly Board Update PowerPoint (also available online CBP Quarterly Board Update May2019.pdf) The Caltrain Fact Sheet for Palo Alto (also available online CBP CIA Factsheet PaloAlto.pdf)At the City Council study session, Caltrain will discuss the following documents: Attachment A: Palo Alto Specific Information the Caltrain Business PlanCity of Palo AltoPage 1
Attachment B: The General Caltrain Business Plan Fact SheetAttachments: Attachment A: Palo Alto Specific Information the Caltrain Business Plan Attachment B: The General Caltrain Business Plan Fact SheetCity of Palo AltoPage 2
CaltrainBusinessPlanPalo Alto City CouncilMay 2019
Overview
What isthe CaltrainBusiness Plan?WhatAddresses the future potential ofthe railroad over the next 20-30years. It will assess the benefits,impacts, and costs of differentservice visions, building the casefor investment and a plan forimplementation.WhyAllows the community andstakeholders to engage indeveloping a more certain,achievable, financially feasiblefuture for the railroad based onlocal, regional, and statewideneeds.
What Will the Business Plan Cover?Technical TracksServiceBusiness CaseCommunity Interface Number of trains Frequency of service Number of peopleriding the trains Infrastructure needsto support differentservice levels Value frominvestments (past,present, and future) Infrastructure andoperating costs Potential sources ofrevenue Benefits and impacts to Organizational structuresurrounding communitiesof Caltrain including Corridor managementgovernance and deliverystrategies andapproachesconsensus building Funding mechanisms to Equity considerationssupport future serviceOrganization
Where Are We in the Process?Board Adoptionof ScopeInitial Scopingand StakeholderOutreachStanford Partnership andTechnical Team ContractingTechnical ApproachRefinement, Partnering,and ContractingBoard Adoption of2040 Service VisionBoard Adoption ofFinal Business PlanPart 2: BusinessPlan CompletionImplementationPart 1: Service Vision DevelopmentWe Are Here
Electrification is the Foundation forGrowth with Plans for More
2040 Demand2015 Population & JobsThe Caltrain corridor is growing By 2040 the corridor expected to add1.2 million people and jobs within 2miles of Caltrain ( 40%)1 80% growth expected in San Franciscoand Santa Clara CountiesMajor transit investments are openingnew travel markets to Caltrain Downtown Extension and CentralSubway Dumbarton Rail, BART to San Jose, andimprovements to Capitol Corridor andACE HSR and Salinas rail7
Exploring the Potential Long Term Demand for Caltrain ServiceUsing Plan Bay Area numbers for projected growth in jobs and housing, an unconstrained model runof high frequency, all-day BART-like service in the Caltrain corridor suggests that by 2040 there couldbe underlying demand for approximately 240,000 daily trips on the system250,000200,000150,000Description2017:92 Trains/Day2040: 360 eak12,00055,000100,00050,0002017, 92 Trains per DayPeak2040, 360 Trains per DayOff-Peak
Amount of Investment /Number of Trains2040 Service Scenarios:Different Ways to GrowHigh GrowthModerate GrowthBaseline Growth2033202920222018CurrentOperationsStart of ElectrifiedOperationsHSR Valleyto Valley &DowntownExtensionHigh SpeedRail Phase 12040ServiceVisionDesign Year
GilroySan MartinMorgan HillBlossom HillCapitolTamienSanta ClaraCollege ParkSan Jose DiridonSunnyvaleLawrenceSan AntonioMountain ViewCalifornia AveMenlo ParkPalo AltoRedwood CityAthertonBelmontSan CarlosSan MateoHayward ParkHillsdaleMillbraeBroadwayBurlingameSouth San FranciscoSan BrunoBayshorePEAK PERIOD ,EACH DIRECTION4th & King / 4th & TownsendSkip StopHigh Speed Rail22nd StService TypeSalesforce Transit Center2040 Baseline Growth Scenario (6 Caltrain 4 HSR)2 Trains / HourService Level(Trains per Hour)2 Trains / Hour2 Trains / Hour4321 14 Trains / Hour4 Trains / HourInfrastructureConceptual 4 TrackSegment or StationFeatures Blended service with up to 10 TPH north of Tamien(6 Caltrain 4 HSR) and up to 10 TPH south ofTamien (2 Caltrain 8 HSR) Three skip stop patterns with 2 TPH – most stationsare served by 2 or 4 TPH, with a few receiving 6 TPH Some origin-destination pairs are not served at allPassing Track Needs Less than 1 mile of new passing tracks at Millbraeassociated with HSR station plus use of existingpassing tracks at Bayshore and LawrenceOptions & Considerations Service approach is consistent with PCEP and HSR EIRs Opportunity to consider alternative service approacheslater in Business Plan process
Service Level(Trains per Hour)GilroySan MartinMorgan HillBlossom HillCapitolTamienSanta ClaraCollege ParkSan Jose DiridonSunnyvaleLawrenceSan AntonioMountain ViewCalifornia AveMenlo ParkPalo AltoRedwood CityAthertonBelmontSan CarlosSan MateoHayward ParkHillsdaleMillbraeBroadwayBurlingameSouth San FranciscoPEAK PERIOD ,EACH DIRECTIONSan BrunoHigh Speed RailBayshoreLocalExpress4th & King / 4th & Townsend22nd StService TypeSalesforce Transit CenterModerate Growth Scenario (8 Caltrain 4 HSR)4 Trains / Hour4 Trains / Hour4321 14 Trains / Hour4 Trains / HourInfrastructureConceptual 4 TrackSegment or StationFeatures A majority of stations served by 4 TPH local stop line, but MidPeninsula stations are serviced with 2 TPH skip stop pattern Express line serving major markets – some stations receive 8 TPH Timed local/express transfer at Redwood CityPassing Track Needs Up to 4 miles of new 4-track segments and stations: Hayward Parkto Hillsdale, at Redwood City, and a 4-track station in northernSanta Clara county (Palo Alto, California Ave, San Antonio orMountain View. California Ave Shown)Options & Considerations To minimize passing track requirements, eachlocal pattern can only stop twice between SanBruno and Hillsdale - in particular, San Mateo isunderserved and lacks direct connection toMillbrae Each local pattern can only stop once betweenHillsdale and Redwood City Atherton, College Park, and San Martin servedon an hourly or exception basis
4 Trains / HourService Level(Trains per Hour)4 Trains / Hour4 Trains / Hour4321 14 Trains / Hour4 Trains / HourInfrastructureConceptual 4 TrackSegment or StationFeatures Nearly complete local stop service – almost allstations receiving at least 4 TPH Two express lines serving major markets – manystations receive 8 or 12 TPHPassing Track Needs Requires up to 15 miles of new 4 track segments:South San Francisco to Millbrae, Hayward Park toRedwood City, and northern Santa Clara Countybetween Palo Alto and Mountain View stations(shown: California Avenue to north of Mountain View)Options & Considerations SSF-Millbrae passing track enables second express line;this line cannot stop north of Burlingame Tradeoff between infrastructure and service along MidPeninsula - some flexibility in length of passing tracksversus number and location of stops Flexible 5 mile passing track segment somewherebetween Palo Alto and Mountain View Atherton, College Park, and San Martin served on anhourly or exception basisGilroySan MartinMorgan HillBlossom HillCapitolTamienSanta ClaraCollege ParkSan Jose DiridonSunnyvaleLawrenceSan AntonioMountain ViewCalifornia AveMenlo ParkPalo AltoRedwood CityAthertonBelmontSan CarlosSan MateoHayward ParkHillsdaleMillbraeBroadwayBurlingameSouth San FranciscoSan BrunoPEAK PERIOD ,EACH DIRECTIONHigh Speed RailBayshoreLocalExpress4th & King / 4th & Townsend22nd StService TypeSalesforce Transit CenterHigh Growth Scenarios (12 Caltrain 4 HSR)
Ridership ProjectionsHighGrowthGrowthHigh200,000On its current, baseline path, Caltrain wouldexperience demand of up to 161,000 daily ridersby 2040. The Moderate and High Growthscenarios would increase demand to 185,000 and207,000 riders, respectively.Moderate GrowthBaseline GrowthCrowding may impact Caltrain’s ability to fullycapture future demand. When projected ridershipis constrained to 135% of seated capacity, all-dayridership in the baseline scenarios could be 6%lower and 4% lower in the moderate growthscenario. There is sufficient capacity in the highgrowth scenario to serve all projected demand.25% IncreaseElectrification20% IncreaseExisting50,000Downtown Extension100,000Business Plan Growth Scenarios150,00020052010201520202025203020352040
Peak Hour Throughput as Freeway Lanes8Caltrain’s peak load point occurs around the mid-Peninsula.Today, Caltrain serves about 3,900 riders per direction during itsbusiest hour at this peak load point. This is equivalent to 2.5 lanesof freeway traffic. 5.5LanesFreeway Lanes of Ridership7The Baseline Growth Scenario increases peak hour ridership toabout 6,400 riders at the peak load point – equivalent to wideningUS-101 by 2 lanes. Peak hour demand exceeds capacity by about40%.65 2.5Lanes4The Moderate Growth Scenario increases peak hour ridership toabout 7,500 riders at the peak load point – equivalent to wideningUS-101 by 2.5 lanes. Peak hour demand exceeds effectivecapacity by about 35% due to higher demand for express trains. 2Lanes3Existing2The High Growth Scenario increases peak hour ridership to over11,000 at the peak load point – equivalent to widening US-101 by5.5 lanes. All ridership demand is served.1Baseline GrowthModerate GrowthExisting Freeway Lanes"New" Freeway LanesHigh GrowthAssumes capacity constrained to a 135% max occupancy load
ServiceHow do weChoose aService Vision?Choosing a long range “Service Vision”is not just about picking which servicepattern looks the best- it requiresevaluating which package of service andinvestments will deliver the best value tothe corridor and the regionThis update describes differentillustrative 2040 service concepts thatunderlie each Growth Scenario. Thedifferent concepts shown are notproposals or recommendations. Theyrepresent an indicative range of optionsfor how Caltrain service could grow givendifferent levels of investment in thecorridorBusiness CaseDuring the spring of 2019 the Business Planteam will develop a detailed “BusinessCase” analysis for each of the differentgrowth scenarios. The Business Case willquantify the financial implications and widercosts and benefits of each growth scenario
The Interface Between the Railroad and itsSurrounding Communities Creates bothOpportunities and ChallengesLocal/Regional MobilityLand Use OpportunitiesPlace-MakingNoise/VibrationPhysical StructuresEconomic DevelopmentVisual ImpactTraffic/Safety
Grade Separationsare a Critical Investment 42 at-grade crossings on the corridor Caltrain ownsbetween San Francisco and San Jose 28 additional at-grade crossings on the UP-ownedcorridor south of TamienAt-Grade Crossing by County in Caltrain Territory San Francisco: 2 at-grade crossings San Mateo:30 at-grade crossings Santa Clara:10 at grade crossings(with 28 additional crossingson the UP-owned corridor)Today, during a typical weekday, Caltrain’s at-gradecrossings are traversed by approximately 400,000 cars.This is equivalent to the combined traffic volumes onthe Bay Bridge and San Mateo Bridge17
Grade Separationsare a Critical InvestmentCrossingsWith Grade Separationsor Closures Planned orUnder Study byLocal JurisdictionsCalculating the Need Across the corridor, cities are undertaking studies andprojects to look at grade separationCaltrain has accounted for all of these projects in ouranalysis of the potential need for grade separation in thecorridor as well as additional investmentsIn total, the Business Plan team estimates that the totalneed for investment in grade separations could bebetween 8.5 and 11 Billion dollarsTaking the Next Step Incorporate grade separation investments into BusinessPlan financial and funding analysisDevelop corridor wide grade separation strategyaddressing topics like; Risk assessment and prioritization factors Construction standards and methods Project coordination and sequencing Community resourcing and organizing Funding analysis and strategy18
Focus on Palo Alto
Palo AltoCorridorConceptual Overtakes and Passing TracksRequired to support service “concepts”: Baseline- None Moderate- A single 4-track “passingstation” would be required somewherein northern Santa Clara County. Thisstation could be Palo Alto, CaliforniaAve, San Antonio, or Mountain View High- A longer 4-track section would berequired in northern Santa ClaraCounty. This segment would generallyfall within the area of the corridorbetween Palo Alto Station and justnorth of Mountain View Station
Potential Service Levels andProjected RidershipPalo )34812618,020
Potential Service Levels andProjected RidershipCalifornia 0Moderate(2040)116424,840High(2040)116424,220
Potential GateDown TimesThe table on the right shows how bad gatedowntimes could be if nothing were done Gate downtimes shown are indicative projectionsbased on extrapolating existing crossing gateperformance Projected downtimes do not increase linearlywith number of trains - primarily due toincreasingly large numbers of overlapping gateactivations at higher levels of train servicePotential Gate Downtimes by Scenario(AM Peak Hour)At-GradeCrossingExisting(minutes /peak hour)Baseline(2040)Moderate(2040)High(2040)Palo AltoAvenue(Alma 0019:00W. 13:0016:0019:00
GradeSeparationGrade Separation Projects:The Caltrain Business Plan is incorporating thecost of a major investment in grade separationsand crossing improvements throughout thecorridor – including those under consideration inPalo Alto; Key projects include potential gradeseparation projects at Churchill, East MeadowDrive and Charleston Road as well as apotential future project at Palo Alto AveThe plan is currently carrying placeholder coststhat fall within the range of cost estimates beingconsidered by the City. These costs can beupdated as Palo Alto advances its study process
Next Steps, Outreach &Engagement
Next StepsOver the next two months the Business Planteam is working to complete a full set of draftmaterials to support Board consideration andadoption of a 2040 Service VisionOngoing Analysis Service simulation and integration analysis Capital costing and Operations andMaintenance Analysis Economic analysis and benefits calculations Organizational assessment Community Interface documentation and peercase studiesUpcoming Milestones Major Board Workshop targeted for July toreview expanded set of materials and discussrecommended “Service Vision” Subsequent adoption of Service Vision inAugust timeframe pending Board discussionand stakeholder feedback26
Next StepsFollowing Board designation of a long range“Service Vision” staff will work to complete a fullBusiness Plan document by the end of 2019Work to be Undertaken following BoardAdoption of a “Service Vision” Near- and mid-term service planning First- and last mile analysis Additional organizational analysis Funding analysis including; Commercial revenue strategiesPotential new sources of funding27
Outreach Activities to DateJuly 2018 – March 2019 Timeline2018July2019AugSeptLocal Policy Maker GroupCity/County Staff Coordinating GroupProject Partner CommitteeCommunity Jurisdiction Meetings(One Per Jurisdiction)Stakeholder Advisory GroupPartner General ManagerWebsite & Survey LaunchCommunity Meetings (SPUR SJ & SF, Friends of Caltrain, Reddit TownHall)Sister Agency PresentationsOctNovDecJanFebMar
Outreach Activities to DateJuly 2018 – March 2019 by the NumbersStakeholders Engaged21268893JurisdictionsPublic AgenciesStakeholderMeetingsOrganizations in StakeholderAdvisory Group261000 7,90027,000Public Meetingsand PresentationsSurvey ResponsesWebsite HitsSocial Media EngagementsPublic Outreach
Business PlanWebsite is Up!-Project timelineProject summaryCorridor-wide factsheetJurisdiction-specific factsheetsMonthly presentationsGlossary of key termsFAQswww.caltrain2040.org30
F O R M O R E I N F O R M AT I O NW W W. C A LT R A I N . C O M
CALTRAINBUSINESSPLANA 2040VISIONFOR THECORRIDORCaltrain is one of the busiest commuter rail systems in the countryand demand for our service is growing.The Caltrain Business Plan is a joint effort with agency partners andcommunities along the corridor to plan for this growth. The Business Plan will helpus develop a better understanding of the region’s future transportation needs and willidentify opportunities and strategies for how the Caltrain system can help.WHY THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE CORRIDOR?The Bay Area population and economy have continued to grow, leading to:Traffic congestion andlonger, unreliable commutesOver-crowded trainsIncreased costof transportationand housingCaltrain provides a cost effective, convenient alternative to drivingand connects jobs and housing, but the system will need to grow tomeet current and future demand.Electrification of theCaltrain corridor is alreadyunderway and will allowCaltrain to run faster,more frequent servicewhile reducing noise andemissions.Electrification also creates the potential for expandedCaltrain service that will meet the current and futureneeds of our region. The Business Plan will identifythe best strategies for maximizing this potential bydeveloping a long-term service vision for the corridor,defining the infrastructure needed to support thatservice vision, and identifying opportunities to fundthe implementation of these improvements.WHAT IS THE CALTRAIN BUSINESS PLAN?The Caltrain Business Plan includes four major focus areas thataddress key questions shaping the future of the railroad:SERVICEDaily Riders62,000Local Jurisdictions21What is the best serviceCaltrain can provideto meet the needs ofour customers andthe communities weserve? How manytrains should we run?How do we best matchservice to riders’ needs?What infrastructureimprovements willbe needed to provide theservice? How can Caltraineffectively connect toother transit services?COMMUNITYINTERFACEWhat are the benefitsand impacts of increasingservice on the corridor toeach community? Howcan we work together togrow the railroad in a waythat balances the needsof all communities alongthe corridor with theneed to expand serviceand operate a safe andefficient railroad? How canwe ensure this planningprocess and the outcomesare equitable?BUSINESS CASEWhy should we choose oneservice vision over another?How can we maximizethe value of current and futureinvestments in the Caltraincorridor? How much will theservice cost to operate? Howwill we fund it?ORGANIZATIONWhat is the bestorganizational structure foroverseeing and growingCaltrain service in the future?
WHO IS INVOLVED?The Caltrain Business Plan is a collaborative effort led by Caltrain with funding and participation from Stanford University and otherorganizations. We understand that each of the local jurisdictions we serve has a unique set of priorities, projects, and plans for growth.We are working closely with policymakers, stakeholders, Caltrain riders, and community members to make sure the Caltrain BusinessPlan considers everyone’s needs.WHEN IS IT HAPPENING?2018Initial Workshop withKey Local, Regional,and State Stakeholders2019Business PlanDevelopmentBegins2020Adoption of aService Vision bythe Caltrain BoardDetailed Analysis and ReviewAdoption of the FullBusiness Plan bythe Caltrain BoardImplementationPublic Outreach and FeedbackFOR MORE INFORMATIONWe recognize that Caltrain is woven into the diversecommunities we serve and want to hear from youabout your needs and what you’d like Caltrain serviceto look like in the future.Check the project website for ways to get involved,regular project updates, and a calendar of ltrain.com
From: City Manager Lead Department: Transportation Recommendation Staff recommends that City Council receive a presentation and discuss the 2040 Caltrain Business Plan with the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board (Caltrain). Discussion In 2018, Caltrain began the
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