Original Research Pulmonary Subtypes Exhibit Differential .

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414Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDChronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases:Journal of the COPD FoundationOriginal ResearchPulmonary Subtypes Exhibit Differential Global Initiative forChronic Obstructive Lung Disease Spirometry Stage Progression:The COPDGene StudyKendra A. Young, PhD1 Mathew J. Strand, PhD2 Margaret F. Ragland MD, MS3 Gregory L. Kinney, PhD1Erin E. Austin, PhD4 Elizabeth A. Regan, MD, PhD5 Katherine E. Lowe, MSc1 Barry J. Make, MD5Edwin K. Silverman, MD, PhD6 James D. Crapo, MD5 John E. Hokanson, PhD1 for the COPDGene InvestigatorsAbstractRationale: We classified individuals into pulmonary disease subtypes based on 2 underlying pathophysiologicdisease axes (airway-predominant and emphysema-predominant) and their increased mortality risk. Our nextobjective was to determine whether some subcomponents of these subtypes are additionally associated withunique patterns of Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) spirometry stage progression.Methods: After accounting for intra-individual measurement variability in spirometry measures betweenbaseline (Phase 1) and the 5-year follow up (Phase 2) of the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene )study, 4615 individuals had complete data that would characterize patterns of disease progression over 5 years(2033 non-Hispanic whites; 827 African Americans; 48% female). Individuals could express increased riskfor mortality on one or both of the primary subtype axes (airway-predominant or emphysema-predominant)and thus they were further classified into 6 groups: high-risk airway-predominant disease only (APD-only),moderate-risk airway-predominant disease only (MR-APD-only), high-risk emphysema-predominant diseaseonly (EPD-only), combined high-risk airway- and emphysema-predominant disease (combined APD-EPD),combined moderate-risk airway- and emphysema-predominant disease (combined MR-APD-EPD), and no highrisk pulmonary subtype. Outcomes were dichotomized for GOLD spirometry stage progression from Phase 1 toPhase 2. Logistic regression of the progression outcomes on the pulmonary subtypes were adjusted for age, sex,race, and change in smoking status.Results: The MR-APD-only group was associated with conversion from GOLD 0 to preserved ratio-impairedspirometry (PRISm) status (odds ratio [OR] 11.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.7–22.1) and GOLD 0 to GOLD2–4 (OR 6.0, 95% CI 2.0–18.0). The EPD-only group was associated with conversion from GOLD 0 to GOLD 1(OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2–4.6), and GOLD 1 to GOLD 2–4 (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.0–6.9). Conversion between PRISm andGOLD 2–4 (31%–38%) occurred in both the APD-only and the MR-APD-only groups.Conclusion: Differential conversion occurs from GOLD 0 to PRISm and GOLD 0 to GOLD 1 based on groupsexpressing airway-predominant disease or emphysema-predominant disease independently or in combination.Airway-predominant and emphysema-predominant subtypes are highly important in determining patterns ofearly disease progression.Abbreviations: Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease, GOLD; COPD Genetic Epidemiology, COPDGene ; high-riskairway-predominant disease only, APD-only; moderate-risk airway-predominant disease only, MR-APD-only; high-risk emphysemapredominant disease only, EPD-only; combined high-risk airway and emphysema-predominant disease, combined APD-EPD; combinedmoderate-risk airway and emphysema-predominant disease, combined MR-APD-EPD; preserved ratio-impaired spirometry, PRISm; oddsFor personal use only. Permission required for all other uses.journal.copdfoundation.org JCOPDF 2019Special Issue 2019

415Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDratio, OR; confidence interval, CI; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD; computed tomography, CT; 6-minute walk distance,6MWD; longitudinal follow-up program, LFU; wall area percentage, WA%; Hounsfield units, HU; forced expiratory volume in 1 second,FEV1; forced vital capacity, FVC; preserved ratio-impaired spirometry, PRISm; body mass index, BMI; standard deviation, SD; percentagelow attentuation of area, LAA%; analysis of variance, ANOVAFunding Support: The COPDGene study is funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grants U01 HL089897 and U01HL089856. The COPDGene study is also supported by the COPD Foundation through contributions made to an Industry AdvisoryCommittee comprised of AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Genentech, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Pfizer, Siemens, and Sunovion.Date of Acceptance: October 29, 2019Citation: Young KA, Strand MJ, Ragland MF, et al for the COPDGene Investigators. Pulmonary subtypes exhibit differential Global Initiativefor Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry stage progression: the COPDGene study. Chronic Obstr Pulm Dis. 2019;6(5):414-429.doi: 6Department of Epidemiology, Colorado School of Public Health,University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, AuroraDivision of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Office of AcademicAffairs, National Jewish Health, Denver, ColoradoDepartment of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine,University of Colorado School of Medicine, AuroraDepartment of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Universityof Colorado at DenverDepartment of Medicine, National Jewish Health, Denver,ColoradoChanning Division of Network Medicine, Brigham and Women’sHospital, Boston, MassachusettsAddress correspondence to:Kendra A. Young, MSPH, PhDDepartment of EpidemiologyColorado School of Public HealthUniversity of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus13001 East 17th AvenueRoom W3142, Campus Box B-119Aurora, CO 80045Phone: 303-724-4441Email: Kendra.Young@cuanschutz.eduKeywords:chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COPD; progression;subtypes; spirometry; airway-predominant; emphysemapredominant; COPD Genetic Epidemiology study; COPDGene IntroductionChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) isa heterogeneous disorder.1 The Global initiative forchronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines2are currently used to grade the severity of spirometricdisease. Previous studies have indicated that lungfunction declines and progression occurs acrossGOLD stages,3-6 although decline varies and manyindividuals remain stable. While smokers withoutspirometrically defined COPD commonly showindications of lung impairment and disease,7,8 the riskand pattern of progression to spirometrically definedCOPD under GOLD stages is unclear. Previous studieshave indicated that only 20% progress9 to definedCOPD, but that may be an underestimation of the truenumber.10,11 Progression from preserved spirometrymay depend on subtypes12 or clinical phenotypessuch as increased air trapping.13,14Recently, we identified continuous pulmonary diseaseaxes based on the correlational structure of Phase 1chest computed tomography (CT) and pulmonaryfunction tests that were associated with mortality risk.15The pattern of risk indicated a complex relationship,and we further classified individuals into high-riskpulmonary subtype groups based on mortality riskwithin the 2 underlying pathophysiologic diseaseaxes (airway-predominant disease [APD] andemphysema-predominant disease [EPD]).16 Thesegroups were associated with mortality independent ofGOLD spirometry stage, and they appear to representdifferent disease pathways. We found that for theemphysema-predominant axis, marked increased riskfor mortality occurred in the highest 2 deciles of theaxis. In contrast, the airway-predominant axis showeda more robust differentiation of mortality risk with thetop 60% showing an enhanced hazard ratio and the top2 deciles the greatest increase in mortality hazard ratio(Figure 1).Because some high-risk individuals expresscharacteristics of both the airway-predominantand emphysema-predominant subtypes, a furthersubdivision was done to create 6 groups that sharecommon characteristics in terms of mortality riskand their relationship to the airway-predominant andemphysema-predominant subtypes. Our objectivein the current analysis is to determine whether thesehigh-risk groups are uniquely associated with GOLDspirometry stage progression.For personal use only. Permission required for all other uses.journal.copdfoundation.org JCOPDF 2019Special Issue 2019

416Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDMethodsCOPD Genetic Epidemiology StudyThe Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene )study (www.copdgene.org) is a longitudinalmulticenter observational study designed to identifygenetic and epidemiologic factors associated withthe development of COPD and to characterizedisease progression using pulmonary function testsand volumetric CT scans.7 The COPDGene studyrecruited 10,198 non-Hispanic whites and AfricanAmericans aged 45-80 years at 21 clinical centersacross the United States beginning in 2008. Of the10,198 participants enrolled at Phase 1 (baseline),8157 had complete data required to assess diseaseaxes.15 Of the 8157 Phase 1 participants, 4615 (3301non-Hispanic whites and 1314 African Americans;49% female) completed a 5-year Phase 2 follow-upwith complete pulmonary subtype data and a definedGOLD spirometry stage at both Phase 1 and Phase 2(Table 1). In order to assess disease-related progressionto a different GOLD stage, we removed individuals whowere sufficiently close to a GOLD boundary in Phase 1that change across the GOLD boundary could likely beattributed to intra-individual measurement variabilityalone. Thus, 1755 individuals were removed from thePhase 2 progression analysis to reduce the impact ofthis random variability (see detailed methods below),leaving 2860 individuals for analysis. Descriptivecharacteristics of the study population stratified bythese high-risk groups are reported in Table 2.The COPDGene cohort is made up of individualswith a heavy smoking history. All were current andformer smokers with least 10 pack years of smokinghistory; however, the mean smoking history forall groups ranged from 37-53 pack years.17 TheCOPDGene study was approved by the institutionalreview board at each center, and all participantsprovided written informed consent. In addition, allprotocols were approved by the institutional reviewboards at National Jewish Health and the Universityof Colorado-Denver. Individuals underwent detailedbaseline characterization, including demographics;anthropometrics; medical and smoking history; preand post-bronchodilator spirometry as well as 6-minuteFor personal use only. Permission required for all other uses.journal.copdfoundation.org JCOPDF 2019Special Issue 2019

417Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDwalk distance (6 MWD) testing according to AmericanThoracic Society standards18,19; and inspiratory andexpiratory CT scans using a standardized protocol.7Enrollment in Phase 1 of the COPDGene study tookplace between 2008 and 2011, and participants wereprospectively followed every 6 months by telephoneand web-based inquiry as part of a longitudinal followup program (LFU) to determine mortality, comorbiddisease events and disease status.20 Participantsenrolled in Phase 1 were invited to participate in a5-year follow-up study visit (Phase 2, 2012–2016).Thoracic CT scans were acquired at full inspirationat both Phase 1 and Phase 2 using the samestandardized protocol.7 Quantification of airway wallthickness, emphysema and gas trapping was performedby Thirona (Thirona, The Netherlands). Lung andairways structures were automatically extractedfrom inspiratory CT scans and visually approved bytrained analysts. Airway wall thickness was assessedusing wall area percentage (WA%) for segmentalairways.21,22 In this analysis we report WA% which wefound to be the most robust airway measurement forour primary assessment of airway disease. Emphysemawas defined as the percentage of low-attenuation areabelow 950 Hounsfield units (HU) (% emphysema).23Current smoking status and pack years of smokingwere determined by questionnaire. COPD wasgrouped as spirometric grades 1–4 based on the GOLDguidelines.2 Participants without spirometric evidenceof airflow obstruction (forced expiratory volume in 1second [FEV1] to force vital capacity [FVC] ratio 0.70and FEV1 80% predicted) were classified as GOLD 0.Participants with FEV1/FVC 0.70 and FEV1 80%predicted were classified as preserved ratio-impairedspirometry (PRISm).8Mortality AscertainmentVital status (mortality assessed through January31, 2018) was determined through the COPDGene participant tracking LFU program and augmentedwith searching the Social Security Death Indexon the subset of participants with available socialsecurity numbers. Results were aggregated centrally.Participant follow-up time was the time between theirPhase 1 study visit and identified death or most recentactive LFU participation. Mortality for these analyseswas limited to those who died between Phase 1 andPhase 2 (5 years) to account for their removal from theprogression analyses.Identification of High-Risk Groups Based onthe Airway-Predominant and EmphysemaPredominant Disease AxesFactor analysis of 26 spirometry and CT variableswere used to classify 8157 COPDGene participantsonto disease axes. The loading of the variables on theFor personal use only. Permission required for all other uses.journal.copdfoundation.org JCOPDF 2019Special Issue 2019

418Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDFor personal use only. Permission required for all other uses.journal.copdfoundation.org JCOPDF 2019Special Issue 2019

419Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDaxes described different disease processes. Two ofthese disease processes, the emphysema-predominantand airway-predominant axes, had increased mortality(Figure 1); in addition, a synergistic interactionbetween these 2 disease axes indicated that mortalitywas significantly increased at higher values of bothaxes in combination.15To account for the non-linear association withmortality observed in our previous work and todetermine if the association remained significantafter adjustment for additional covariates, a Coxproportional hazards regression was used to assessmortality risk across deciles of both the emphysemapredominant and airway-predominant axes. Themodel included age, sex, race, pack years of smoking,current smoking status, body mass index (BMI), highblood pressure, a square term for the airway diseaseaxis factor score (to account for part of the non-linearassociation with mortality), the gas trapping axis,the CT intensity variability axis, and the total lungcapacity and functional residual capacity axis.15While increased risk of mortality was observed acrossmost deciles of the airway-predominant axis, the 9thand 10th deciles had the highest risk of mortality.The next 3 deciles (6th, 7th and 8th) also showed anincreased mortality hazard ratio (Figure 1). Across theemphysema-predominant axis, increased mortalitywas observed only in the 9th and 10th deciles of theemphysema-predominant factor. Based on theseresults, individuals were classified into 6 high-riskgroups (Figure 2; Supplementary Figures S1-S6): APD-Only: High-risk airway-predominant disease—participants in the 9th or 10th deciles of theairway-predominant axis who are not also in the9th or 10th deciles of the emphysema-predominantaxis. MR APD-only: Moderate-risk airway-predominantdisease only—participants in the 6th, 7th or 8thdeciles of the airway-predominant axis and who arenot also in the 9th or 10th deciles of the emphysemapredominant axis. EPD - only: High - risk emphysema - predominantdisease only—participants in the 9th or 10th decilesof the emphysema-predominant axis who arenot also in the 9th or 10th deciles of the airwaypredominant axis.Combinedhigh-risk Combined APD-EPD:airway and emphysema-predominant disease—participants in the 9th or 10th deciles of the airwaypredominant axis who are also in 9th or 10th decilesof the emphysema-predominant axis. Combined MR APD-EPD: Combined moderaterisk airway and emphysema-predominant disease—participants in the 6th, 7th or 8th deciles of theairway-predominant axis and who are also in the9th or 10th deciles of the emphysema-predominantaxis. No HR or MR: No high-risk or moderate-riskpulmonary group—participants not in the 6th to10th deciles of the airway-predominant axis andalso not in the 9th or 10th deciles of the emphysemapredominant axis.Statistical AnalysesStatistical analyses were performed using SAS 9.4(SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina). P-values lessthan 0.05 were considered statistically significant.Data are presented as means (standard deviation [SD]),n (percentages [%]), or odds ratios (OR) and 95%confidence intervals (CI) where appropriate. Phase1 demographic and clinical characteristics betweengroups were compared with the chi-square test forcategorical variables and one-way analysis of variance(ANOVA) for continuous variables.Change in smoking status between Phase 1 andPhase 2 was classified into 4 categories: currentcurrent, former-former, current-former, and formercurrent. Outcomes were dichotomized as yes/no forGOLD spirometry stage progression from Phase 1 toPhase 2 for:1) GOLD 0 to PRISm (FEV1% predicted 80%,FEV1/FVC 0.70);2) GOLD 0 to GOLD 1;3) GOLD 0 to GOLD 2–4;4) PRISm to GOLD 2–4;5) GOLD 1 to GOLD 2–4.Due to the small number of individuals in thecomparison group (No HR or MR) in PRISm (n 9),multivariable regression models were not run forPRISm to GOLD 2–4 for this group. Therefore, weused 4 logistic regression models of the progressionoutcomes on the high-risk and moderate-risk groupsto calculate OR and 95% Cis compared to the NoHR MR group after adjustment for age, sex, race, andchange in smoking status. Due to a priori hypotheses,we did not correct for multiple testing.For personal use only. Permission required for all other uses.journal.copdfoundation.org JCOPDF 2019Special Issue 2019

420Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDIntra-Individual Measurement Variability ofPulmonary FunctionTwenty-nine participants in COPDGene hadduplicate visits within 6 months during which fullclinical assessment was completed including bothreplicate CT scans and replicate pulmonary functionstudies. These participants were used to assessintra-individual measurement variability in repeatspirometry. The coefficient of variation of thesepairs (mean/1 SD) for FEV1% predicted 15.7%and for FEV1/FVC 10.5%. To reduce the impactof measurement variability on our assessment ofprogression across GOLD boundaries, we removedindividuals whose Phase 1 and Phase 2 FEV1%predicted was within 15.7% of 80% (67.44–92.56%)or whose Phase 1 and Phase 2 FEV1/FVC ratio waswithin 10.5% of 0.70 (0.6265–0.7735). This resultedin excluding 1755 individuals from the Phase 2progression analysis. Thus, 2860 individuals withcomplete data and for whom a change across a GOLDboundary would likely represent disease progressionand not just acute changes in pulmonary functionwere used for the Phase 2 progression analysis. Theexclusion of all participants close to the GOLDboundaries from progression analysis will likely resultin a conservative estimate of progression that wouldbe expected to underestimate total progression. Inaddition, disease progression that does not result incrossing a GOLD boundary is not considered in thisanalysis. Changes in GOLD stage irrespective of intraindividual measurement variability are presented inFigure S7 in the online supplement.ResultsThere were marked differences in all-cause mortalityamong the different high-risk groups definedby unbiased factor analysis. Five-year all-causeFor personal use only. Permission required for all other uses.journal.copdfoundation.org JCOPDF 2019Special Issue 2019

421Differential Pulmonary Subtype Progression in COPDmortality for the high-risk and moderate-risk airwaypredominant subtypes (APD-only and MR-APD-only)were 21.6% and 11.0% while 5-year mortality for thehigh-risk emphysema subtype (EPD-only) was 9%(Table 1

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disorder.1 The Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines 2 are currently used to grade the severity of spirometric disease. Previous studies have indicated that lung function declines and progression occurs across

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