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Contents5Foreword by Thomas Buberl6Foreword by Ian Bremmer8Executive summary10Section 1COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape20Section 2Countries ignore climate change at their peril26Section 3Cybersecurity and geopolitical tension remainformidable foes32Section 4Experts now comfortable with tech risk, but newthreats emerge34Section 5Mental health and misinformation: candidates fortomorrow’s top threat38About the research


Foreword05Forewordby Thomas Buberl,CEO of AXAAs the world faces the unprecedented COVID-19 crisisand its consequences, AXA’s Future Risks Report, nowin its seventh year, has never been more relevant.Measuring and analyzing the perception of emergingrisks to anticipate major trends is essential for aninsurance company with a long-term focus and isbeneficial for society at large.The first lesson we take from this edition is that health isnow the top priority. While it is unfortunate that it tooksuch a tragic context for it to reach number one in ourranking, we find the increased awareness of health risksencouraging when compared with previous years. AXAhas long been convinced that health is one of the mostimportant challenges of our time and is committed toprotecting people and societies from the associated risks.The second lesson of this report is the decreasedperceived risk of climate change. While it remains thehighest priority for our European respondents, we notethat climate change has dropped to second place overall.Given the context, this may not seem unusual, but thedrop in absolute terms is concerning, especially amongour American and Asian respondents, as we believethat shorter-term issues around the pandemic shouldnot completely overshadow longer-term threats. I amconvinced that we must remain fully committed to doingour part to tackle climate change, and AXA certainly is.Last, this edition reinforced our observation fromprevious years: risks are increasingly connected andinterdependent. The current pandemic exemplifieshow they are global, complex, and, therefore, difficultto address. Insurers cannot tackle them alone. This iswhy AXA was the first insurer to suggest the creationof a pandemic insurance scheme to share the burdenbetween governments and private actors.“.health is nowthe top priority— Thomas BuberlOur research also shows that 73% of the general publicand 83% of risk experts believe that populations aroundthe world are more vulnerable today than they were fiveyears ago. In an increasingly uncertain world with morecomplex and connected risks, I believe that insurance canoffer protection, expertise, and clarity, thus contributingto individual peace of mind and collective improvement.This is why at AXA, in line with our purpose, we act forhuman progress by protecting what matters.

Foreword06Forewordby Ian Bremmer,Eurasia Group and GZERO Media PresidentI’m so pleased that Eurasia Group is againcollaborating with AXA on the Future Risks Report,especially as the world grapples with the response toand recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.This report—and the collaboration behind it—feelsparticularly urgent. We need deep, subject-specificexpertise to navigate the risks explored in this report.But that’s not enough. We also need to anticipate howgovernments and other actors will respond to new risks,and we need to understand how the risk landscape isshaped by changes underway in the global economyand its geopolitical foundations. The partnershipbetween Eurasia Group and AXA allows us to developthat understanding.Public health is, of course, now the top priority fornearly anyone who manages risk. COVID-19 and theeconomic and social damage it brings have shockedand challenged governments, people, and companiesin every corner of the globe. It has required urgentadaptation from all of us, from how we live our daily livesto how we interact with others and how we work (and, formany, if and when we work).“Ultimately, however, the pandemic will make its deepestmark on the world as the great accelerator of technology,geopolitical, economic, and social trends already inplace, but only incrementally emerging, when COVID-19first hit. Before COVID-19, these trends were visible butlooked set to unfold over five to ten years. With COVID-19,these transformations—digital adoption, remotelearning, US-China technology competition, supply chainreordering, and many others—are taking place in asingle year.This great acceleration influences all the emergingand present risks identified and explored in this year’sFuture Risks Report. It makes all of them more urgent. AsThomas says, it also makes it more urgent that we worktogether to overcome the daunting set of challenges nowfacing the world.COVID-19 has required urgent adaptationfrom all of us, from how we live our dailylives to how we interact with others andhow we work.— Ian Bremmer


Executive summary08Executive summaryPreparing for the future requires an in-depthassessment of emerging risksTechnological revolution, climate change,pandemics, and increasing geopolitical instabilitymake it harder for policymakers, businesses, andindividuals to anticipate coming changes, overcomechallenges, and grasp opportunities.Therefore, for the seventh consecutive year, AXA soughtto highlight experts’ perceptions of future risks byconducting a structured survey of more than 2,700 riskexperts from 54 countries. In addition, this year, AXAworked with the research specialist Ipsos to gaugethe perception of the general public by surveying closeto 20,000 people. AXA has also continued itspartnership with Eurasia Group for its unique take ongeopolitical themes.This edition of AXA’s Future Risks Report was written inunprecedented circumstances. As this report was beingwritten, more than 33 million people worldwide hadbeen infected, and more than one million had died as aresult of COVID-19.1 Countries that had initially broughtthe virus under control were starting to experience aresurgence in cases.The onset of COVID-19 transformed pandemics andinfectious diseases—previously an important yet perhapsdistant and unlikely risk—into an immediate and deadlythreat to the entire global population. As a result,surveyed experts today rank pandemics and infectiousdiseases as the emerging risk that is the greatestthreat to society in the next five to ten years, up fromeighth place last year. In parallel, the general public1Worldometer, Coronavirus death toll, 28 September 2020ranks health concerns as the risk to which they feel mostvulnerable, alongside computer-related risks.As pandemics and infectious diseases rose up theagenda, climate change slid for the first time since 2015,from the first to the second-most-important emergingrisk to society. But more significantly, the breakdown ofthe survey results by country reveals strong disparities inthe perception of climate-related risks. While Europeanexperts continue to identify climate risks as the mostpressing threat to society, the number of North Americanbased experts that consider climate change to be a topemerging risk fell to 46%, from 71% last year. In parallel,experts located in Asia are less concerned about theimpact of climate change than the global average.The countries that downplay the risk of climate changeare among those that contribute most to its accelerationand are most likely to feel its effects. There is, therefore, areal danger that in focusing only on COVID-19, the threatthat is right in front of us, other long-term challenges areoverlooked by the general public and decision-makers.Similarly, the survey data also shows that risks relatedto natural resources are decreasing in importance, eventhough the biodiversity crisis is accelerating.In many ways, the crisis has been acting as anaccelerant of existing or nascent trends. All of theemerging risks that experts consider most importanttoday have been reshaped or exacerbated by COVID-19.Cybersecurity risk, which experts rank as third-mostimportant, has intensified as COVID-19-related phishing

Executive summary09emails have surged and as employees have been usingpersonal devices for work. Geopolitical instability, whichexperts rank as fourth-most-important, has heightenedas some governments exert control over medical suppliesand protect strategically important businesses. Evensocial discontent and local conflicts, experts’ fifth-mostimportant risk, could surge as COVID-19 exposes andwidens economic and social inequality.That’s all before taking into account the devastatingimpact of COVID-19 and resulting lockdowns on theeconomy; experts consider macroeconomic risk to be theseventh-most-important risk to society. In addition to thedirect impact of lockdowns on economic activity, there’sa danger that the economic fallout will worsen if thepandemic causes prolonged feelings of uncertainty andvulnerability among the general population, which,in turn, leads to less consumption. Our survey alreadyfinds evidence of this. Almost three-quarters of thegeneral public say people feel more vulnerable comparedwith five years ago.These examples illustrate the growing connectivity ofrisks, which we presented as one of the main findingsof last year’s report. This interlinking requires a global,interdisciplinary, and multi-stakeholder approach toprevention and protection.In addition to uncovering the emerging risks consideredmost important today, this report also identifies therisks that have slipped under the radar. Last year, wehighlighted pandemics and infectious diseases as anoverlooked risk. This year, we believe mental health andmisinformation are important risks that deserve focusand have not yet fully captured the attentionof experts.This report endeavors to identify which risks matter toexperts and the general public. The findings will hopefullystimulate a debate about how they can be mitigated. Indoing so, we hope to further our purpose: act for humanprogress by protecting what matters.We hope you enjoy reading it.

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape010COVID-19 reshapes theemerging risk landscapePandemics are now the top emerging riskPandemics and infectious diseases are the mostimportant risks to society in the next five to ten years,according to our surveyed experts. Last year, they rankedeighth. The number of experts that rank pandemics asa major emerging risk more than doubled, from 23% to56%. The general public agrees: in our research, they rankhealth risks as their top cause of vulnerability, alongsidecomputer-related risks.Given the current focus on tackling COVID-19, it isnatural that experts’ primary concern when it comes topandemics and infectious diseases relates to new strainsof diseases and that other threats are deprioritized. Thisis illustrated in our survey data: the proportion of expertswho are concerned about antimicrobial resistance andsuperbugs, for example, has tumbled from 29% last yearto 9% this year.This is no surprise. When the survey for this report wascarried out in July 2020, more than half a million peopleworldwide had succumbed to COVID-19,2 and manycountries were in lockdown.There may have been a decrease in the perceived severityof antimicrobial resistance, but it still has the potentialto create a future health crisis. Global spread of bugs’resistance to common antibiotics could dramaticallyraise the risk level of common healthcare treatmentssuch as chemotherapy, organ transplants, caesareansections, and hip replacements. This would not onlyprolong illness but also significantly increase the cost ofhealthcare. The impact of these risks may be less suddenthan a pandemic, but the long-term effects have thepotential to be equally devastating.So, unlike some of the other risks discussed in this report,this is a risk that is playing out today in an extreme way.That is why 58% of experts describe this risk as “alreadythere,” and more people say that the risk of pandemicsand infectious diseases is already present than they doabout any other emerging risk.However, pandemics and infectious diseases are notjust the top emerging risk because of the very currentand tangible threat to the general population’s health.Spiralling public debt, escalating geopolitical tension,growing mental health concerns, and surging inequalityare other emerging risks that have been triggered oraccelerated by COVID-19. In addition, there is a risk thatthe public authorities’ focus on addressing COVID-19might lead to the neglect of other major but lessimminent threats.2Worldometer, Coronavirus death toll, 24 August 2020

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape011Pandemics and infectious diseases now top emerging risk20202019Pandemics and infectious diseases56%23%54%Climate change51%Cybersecurity risks38%42%Geopolitical instability17%Macroeconomic risks16%Financial risks15%Pollution0%10%24%22%Natural resources and biodiversity risks56%33%28%30%Social discontent and local conflictsNew threats to security67%27%21%20%23%20%30%40%50%60%Fig 1 Q. Out of these 25 risks, please select the top five emerging risks that may have a significant impact on societyat large in the next five to ten years.The public feel most vulnerable to health and computer-related risksHealth risksComputer-related risksClimate change risksRoad risksFinancial risksFood risksNatural risksThe risk of unemploymentThe risk of being mugged or robbedThe risk of an attack/terrorismThe risk of a domestic accident4.3Industrial risks012346. 2 Q. How vulnerable do you feel to the following risks, on a scale of zero to ten? Zero meaning that you do notfeel vulnerable at all, and ten that you feel highly vulnerable.

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape12Are the authorities prepared to tacklethe fallout from the pandemic?Encouragingly, surveyed experts believe that publicauthorities are more prepared to tackle pandemicsand infectious diseases than any other emerging risk.The proportion that believes public authorities are wellprepared has increased to 33% from 22% last year.Although there are clear examples of mistakes, mostgovernments around the world acted decisively toaddress the impacts of COVID-19. In France, for instance,the “temporary unemployment” scheme, under whichthe state pays subsidies to businesses to fund thesalaries of those prevented from working, was set upto avoid mass bankruptcies and layoffs. At the end ofApril 2020, close to nine million workers were benefitingfrom this emergency scheme. Many other countries haveintroduced similar measures.“Governments reacted really quickly to COVID-19,”says George Stansfield, AXA Deputy Group CEO andGroup General Secretary. “In most major industrializedcountries, packages were put in place very quickly toprotect workers from unemployment. This is in starkcontrast to 2008.”However, governments may have acted swiftly to mitigatethe immediate direct impacts of COVID-19, but it remainsto be seen how well they cope with the long-termchallenges that may follow.The perceived competence of public authorities variessignificantly around the world. For example, 45% ofexperts in Asia-Pacific say that public authorities arewell prepared for pandemics and infectious diseases,compared with 34% in Europe, 22% in Africa, and just16% in the Americas. In 2019, only 31% of experts in Asiaand 18% in Europe said that their public authorities werewell prepared for pandemics and infectious diseases.This reflects the fact that many Asian countries havemore experience in dealing with infectious diseases, suchas SARS in the early 2000s and, more recently, MERS inSouth Korea.Public authorities in Asia-Pacificare considered best prepared forpandemics and infectious diseasesPercentage that are absolutely or somewhatprepared for pandemics and infectious uropeAfrica16%The AmericasFig 3 Q. Would you say that public authorities in yourcountry are well prepared for the emergence of this risk?

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape13Why did AXA participate inthe development of aninsurance mechanism againstexceptional risks?Alban de Mailly Nesle, AXA Group ChiefRisks & Investment OfficerThe crisis we are currently experiencing is exceptional inmany ways and presents a so-called “systemic” risk event(i.e., it affects the entire system). It is worth mentioningthat insurance is based on the principle of mutualizationof risks between policyholders, which is how insurancepremiums are calculated. If all individuals are affected,which is the case in a systemic risk event, insurance canno longer function as traditionally understood.It, therefore, seemed important to consider these newrisks and the insurance mechanisms that could be putin place to deal with them. This is why AXA joined theFédération Française de l’Assurance working group at theend of April to participate in the definition of a possiblefuture insurance scheme for exceptional catastrophes(“CATEX” scheme) through the appointment of Jacquesde Peretti, CEO of AXA France, as co-sponsor of theindustry working group.How would this scheme work?The French scheme is intended to be a simplemechanism with a rapid compensation process. In theevent of a claim, it is crucial to provide financial supportas quickly as possible to professionals, particularly SMEs,who face sudden interruptions or significant reductionsin their business income.Accordingly, the CATEX scheme has two main features.First, compensation would be automatic, based onthe principle of parametric insurance. Compensationwould then be triggered when one (or more) predefined event(s)—such as an administrative closurelinked to a pandemic, natural disaster, or terroristact—is pronounced by the public authorities. Then, thecompensation would be a lump sum. This would avoidthe need to assess the operating losses incurred, thussignificantly speeding up the claims management and,therefore, the compensation process.Regarding the amount of the lump-sum compensation,this system would be based on a public–privatepartnership. The insurers and reinsurers would committo an annual compensation capacity based on aproportion of the premiums collected. The CATEX projectthus provides for an annual compensation capacity byinsurers and reinsurers of up to two billion euros. Beyondthis capacity, the state alone would take over throughCCR, the public reinsurer.What are the next steps?Last June, the CATEX project was presented to theMinistry of the Economy and Finance, which chose toopen public consultation on the subject in order toallow all interested stakeholders, such as companiesand industry associations, to express their needs andpreferences in terms of coverage for exceptional riskssuch as pandemics before a debate with French MPs.The consultation ended on August 31, and we are nowawaiting the directions that the Minister wishes to give tothis project.

14COVID-19 accelerates long-termshifts in the risk landscape: insightsfrom Eurasia GroupThe COVID-19 pandemic is stress testing governmentsaround the world, straining their resilience, institutionalcapacity, and response effectiveness. In key globalmarkets in Europe, North America, and Asia, thepandemic is bringing about a wide range of destabilizingshocks to healthcare systems, economies, andhouseholds.Each of these will continue to force governments torespond to and recover from shocks that are alreadyrealized and prevent and mitigate the impact of thosethat are still to come. Insufficient responses will prolongthe economic and financial damage from the pandemicand, in some cases, will cause political instability asdissatisfied citizens punish ineffective governments.Most immediately, the pandemic is exposing globalpublic health vulnerabilities, highlighting weakness innational and global preparedness around healthcarecapacity, response coordination, and readiness aroundtherapeutic and preventative responses, includingvaccine development and equitable distribution. Asthe world shifts in late 2020 and into 2021 from crisisresponse to treatment and recovery, the geopoliticsof health—challenged by greater nationalism andan impaired multilateral system of governance—willcontinue to shape how quickly and how well the worldemerges from the pandemic.Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscapeBeyond health, the pandemic is acting as an accelerantof existing or nascent geopolitical themes and trends.These pre-existing trends now accelerated by COVID-19include the trajectory of China’s relationship with theworld (and especially the United States), technologycompetition, supply chain reordering, policy responsesto global climate change, nationalist and protectionistpolicies, and the role and appropriate use of industrialpolicy, among many other themes.Moreover, the pandemic’s potential role as an accelerantgoes beyond economic and geopolitical trends; it hasthe potential to accelerate the rise of all emerging risks inunforeseen and unexpected ways. For so many of thesethemes and their associated risks, the pandemic meansthat what otherwise would have unfolded over manyyears is, instead, taking place over just months. In otherwords, slow tectonic shifts in the landscape have insteadbecome earthquakes, bringing ruptures and large-scaledislocations to the global risk landscape.

15Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscapeHeightened interconnectivitydemands a coordinated responseLast year’s Future Risks Report found that there is anincreasing potential for risks to influence each other inunpredictable ways. The COVID-19 pandemic is adding tothat interconnectivity.Take social discontent and local conflicts, which ourexperts rank as the fifth-most-important emerging risk tosociety. COVID-19 could plunge an estimated 49 millionpeople around the world into extreme poverty in 2020.3This will accelerate local conflicts and discontent, both inlower- and high-income countries.Interdependencies between risks demand greatercollaboration: governments must act together toaddress truly global threats such as climate change andpandemics. When asked the level at which decisionsshould be taken to counteract emerging risks, 50% ofthe general public say at the global level, and 11% say atthe continental level. Just 30% say that decisions shouldbe taken at the country level, and just 9% say at the citylevel. Interestingly, European cities still have a longway to go: the general public is not convinced bythe effectiveness of city-level decisions to faceemerging risks.Public authorities, the private sector, and civil societymust collaborate to address challenges that need amultifaceted and coordinated response. Even withinindividual businesses, leadership must work together tounderstand how a risk in one area of the business couldmorph to impact another.“Today’s emerging risks are more integrated and havemultiple angles, so businesses need everyone in the roomwhen it comes to tackling them,” says George Stansfield,AXA Deputy Group CEO and Group General Secretary.3The World Bank, The impact of COVID-19 on global poverty, 20 April 2020“At the government level, one of the positive outcomes ofthis could be better collaboration with the private sector.It’s in the interest of both to work together to address someof the most important threats, such as climate change.”“The pandemichas exacerbatedinequality. The factthat white-collarworkers could safelywork from homeduring lockdowns,but blue-collarworkers couldn’t,and were thereforemore exposed to thevirus, symbolizedthis. It’s anotherfactor that mayundermine socialcohesion in manyWestern countries.— Renaud Guidée, AXA Group ChiefRisk Officer

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape16COVID-19 deepens the public’s sense ofvulnerability, but will it last?Unlike previous crises, COVID-19 and the resultinglockdown measures are having a direct and personalimpact on people of all ages in all countries. As a result,73% of the general population say they believe thatpeople across the world feel more vulnerable than theydid five years ago. Notably, people in Italy, Mexico, andSpain, some of the areas most impacted by COVID-19,feel more vulnerable to emerging risks than those in theUK, Germany, and Switzerland. Risk experts are evenmore pessimistic: 83% consider that the vulnerability ofpopulations has increased worldwide in the pastfive years.In addition to feeling more vulnerable, the general publicis now more risk-averse: 65% now take less risk in theirdaily lives than before COVID-19. Heightened feelings ofvulnerability and risk aversion have their own associatedimpacts. For example, 81% of the general population saythat emerging risks have or will soon affect their travelplans, and three-quarters say that they have negativelyaffected their purchasing power.This lower risk tolerance explains most of the decisionsmade by governments in the first months of the COVID-19crisis. It is also a key driver of the general public’sincreased demand for protection: even though 85% agreethat zero risk does not exist, they want and expect to beprotected, both by public authorities and private insurers.The emerging risk landscape is so dominated byCOVID-19 that it is not yet clear whether these behavioraltrends will continue when the pandemic ultimatelyrecedes. If they do, such a long-term shift in publicbehavior will have a profound impact, not only on civilsociety but also on the economy.People in Mexico, Italy andSpain feel most vulnerable toemerging risksItalyGLOBAL (5.4)6.2Mexico6.2Spain5.9Hong 4 Q. How vulnerable do you feel to the followingrisks, on a scale of 0 to 10? 0 meaning you do not feelvulnerable at all, and ten that you feel highly vulnerable.

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape17Respondents in the US andHong Kong experience the greatestincrease in vulnerabilityPercentage that are more vulnerable comparedwith five years agoHong 9%25%Fig 5 Q. When you think about the way in which thingshave been evolving in the past five years, would you saythat people are more or less vulnerable?

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape18Macroeconomic risk shootsup the agendaThe COVID-19 pandemic is just as much an economiccrisis as it is a health crisis. Lockdowns caused GDP toplunge 12% in the EU4 and 33% in the US5 in the secondquarter of 2020. Globally, the IMF predicts that GDP willshrink by 4.9% in 2020.6It is, therefore, no surprise that experts now considermacroeconomic risk to be the seventh-most-importantemerging risk. Last year, they ranked it tenth. When askedwhich macroeconomic risks are most important, expertsrank durable mass unemployment first. In the long term,younger people who are just entering the job market arelikely to be affected most.Macroeconomic risk is felt most acutely in Spain (where35% of experts consider it an important risk), Italy (31%),and Mexico (31%). This could be because these countrieshave been particularly affected by COVID-19. However,unemployment in the US has risen to above 10%, yet just13% of US experts consider macroeconomic risk to beimportant—the lowest proportion globally.Financial risks have also risen up the agenda to beexperts’ ninth-most-important emerging risk this year,and increased public and private debt levels are ofparticular concern. Global net public debt is expectedto rise to 85.3% this year from 69.4% last year.7 This willchange the playing field for younger generations, who willinherit unprecedented levels of debt.“Debt is going to be a major issue in the next 10 to 20years,” says Gilles Moëc, Chief Economist of AXA Group.“We are responding to the crisis by allowing a massiveincrease in both public and private sector debt. It’sunavoidable and the right thing to do, but we mustacknowledge that many countries will have more debt asa percentage of GDP than at any time since the SecondWorld War. That’s fine now, as monetary policy is veryaccommodating, but when normal monetary policyresumes, it may cause a crisis—particularly foremerging markets.”Are public authorities prepared to respond tomacroeconomic and financial risks? Our surveyedexperts are confident that they can respond to financialrisks, but are much less confident when it comes tomacroeconomic risks.This reflects the fact that while many governments andcentral banks have already responded much more rapidlythan they did to the 2008 crisis, it may not be enoughgiven the unprecedented scale of the economic impact.Eurostat, GDP down by 12.1% in the euro area and by 11.9% in the EU, 31 July 2020CNBC, Second-quarter GDP plunged by worst-ever 32.9% amid virus-induced shutdown, 30 July 20206IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020, 24 June 20207Financial Times, Governments face ‘massive’ rise in public debt, IMF warns, 15 April 202045

Section 1: COVID-19 reshapes the emerging risk landscape19Experts in Spain, Mexico and Singapore aremost concerned about macroeconomic riskPercentage that rank macroeconomic risk as a top five emerging anAustraliaUS14%13%Fig 6 Q. Out of these 25 risks, please select the top five emerging risks thatmay have a significant impact on society at large in the next 5–10 years.

20Section 2: Countries ignore climate change at their perilCountries ignore climatechange at their perilExperts outside Europe deprioritize climatechange risk at an alarming rateIn recent years, there has been a growing consensus thatclimate change poses an immense threat to society, asshown by our survey data. Now, however, that consensusappear

This edition of AXA’s Future Risks Report was written in unprecedented circumstances. As this report was being written, more than 33 million people worldwide had been infected, and more than one million had died as a result of COVID-19.1 Countries that had initially brought the virus unde

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