Modeling The Impact Of Wildfire On Reservoir Capacity
Modeling the Impact of Wildfire onReservoir CapacityMora CamplairOregon State UniversityBiological & Ecological Engineering
Objectives1. Research parameter inputs for a pre-existing capacitymodel and analyze outputs in comparison to survey data.2. Adjust the model to simulate yearly fire frequency viamodified sedimentation rates.
Tributaries upstream of RuthLakeNImage source: USEPA (2007). Mad River Total Maximum Daily Loads for Sediment andDelivery. Retrieved d-TMDL-122107-signed.pdf.
Fire-Flood Regime Fire impact Hydrophobic soils lowers soil infiltration Sudden loss of vegetation increases sediment availability Precipitation Cannot infiltrate soil, thus contributes to surface runoff Carries available sediment down stream“Event-based surface runoff to rainfall ratios approached 0.45 duringthe first year post wildfire, compared to reported values 0.01 ”Noske, P. J., P. N. J. Lane, P. Nyman, and G. J. Sheridan (2016), Effects of aridity in controlling the magnitude ofrunoff and erosion after wildfire, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4338–4357, doi:10.1002/2015WR017611.Shakesby, R. A., & Doerr, S. H. (2006). Wildfire as a hydrological and geomorphological agent. Earth-ScienceReviews, 74(3-4), 269–307. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2005.10.006
Methods OverviewI. Review capacity modeling done by Minear and Kondolf.II. Data collection of Ruth Lake and research of variousparameter values.III. Addition to previous model of varying sedimentation rate toreflect fire events.IV. Capacity estimation comparisons between:A. Minear’s original spreadsheet modelB. Survey data of Ruth LakeC. Modified (for fire regime) spreadsheet model
I. Summary of Reservoir CapacityModelby Minear & KondolfObjectives1.Apply the median sedimentation yield of surveyed reservoirs in ageomorphic region to un-surveyed reservoirs of the same region.2.Predict future yearly reservoir capacities in reservoirs based onregion.Minear, J. T., & Kondolf, G. M. (2009). Estimating reservoir sedimentation rates at large spatial and temporal scales: Acase study of California. Water Resources Research, 45(12), 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006703
Sedimentation relationships modeledby Minear and Kondolf Minear, J. T., & Kondolf, G. M. (2009). Estimating reservoir sedimentation rates at large spatial and temporal scales: Acase study of California. Water Resources Research, 45(12), 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006703
II. Data collection of Ruth LakeMinear, J. T., & Kondolf, G. M. (2009). Estimating reservoir sedimentation rates at large spatial and temporal scales: A case studyof California. Water Resources Research, 45(12), 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006703Ruth Lake Community Service District (2014). “Humboldt Bay Municpal Water District R.W. Matthews Dam- Project # tory/.U.S. Geological Survey (2012). The StreamStats program for California, online at http://streamstatsags.cr.usgs.gov/streamstats/
III. Adjustments to Minear’sspreadsheetFire frequencies Each year was assigned as a “fire year” or “non-fire year” Evaluated every 40, 30, 20, 10, and 5 yearsSedimentation, Y, for fire years was estimated using RUSLESedimentation, Y, for non-fire years was evaluated at three differentvalues based on various input parametersMinear, J. T., & Kondolf, G. M. (2009). Estimating reservoir sedimentation rates at large spatial and temporal scales: A casestudy of California. Water Resources Research, 45(12), 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006703Matthews, G. (2007). Mad River Sediment Source Analysis, (December).
IV. Capacity estimation comparisonsModelScenarioCompletelyUnburnedModified firefrequency toevery 10years2015Ruth LakeSurveySedimentationinput unburned(m3/km2/year)Sedimentationinput fire(m3/km2/year)2016 Capacity(m3)W 310.8 km2K 63,894,368 m32016 Capacity(m3)W 313.389 km2K 59,244,044 08155.6882.14147.25------49,741,375
IV. Capacity estimation comparisonsModelScenarioCompletelyUnburnedModified firefrequency toevery 10years2015Ruth LakeSurveySedimentationinput unburned(m3/km2/year)Sedimentationinput fire(m3/km2/year)2016 Capacity(m3)W 310.8 km2K 63,894,368 m32016 Capacity(m3)W 313.389 km2K 59,244,044 08155.6882.14147.25------49,741,375
Implications & Suggestions for FurtherDevelopment Survey data could overestimate volume of Ruth Lake, eventhough capacity seems low compared to other projections Survey capacity 49,741,375 m3 Conducted after 2015 fire, but before a major precipitation event Fire frequency does not have a drastic impact on reservoircapacity in this simplified model adjustment Not to say fire events do not have an impact at all ‘On/Off’ pattern does not encompass ecological complexities such as climate,vegetation, soil factors, and precipitation. Specify sediment yields to reflect rainfall after wildfire Simulate various precipitation events: Intensity-Duration-Frequency curve
Intensity-Duration-Frequency curveSource: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2015). NOAA Atlas 14 Point PrecipitationFrequency Estimates, online at http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds map cont.html?bkmrk ca
Thank youQuestions?
ReferencesMatthews, G. (2007). Mad River Sediment Source Analysis, (December).Minear, J. T., & Kondolf, G. M. (2009). Estimating reservoir sedimentation rates at large spatial and temporal scales: A case studyof California. Water Resources Research, 45(12), 1–8. http://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006703National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2015). NOAA Atlas 14 Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates, online athttp://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds map cont.html?bkmrk caNoske, P. J., P. N. J. Lane, P. Nyman, and G. J. Sheridan (2016), Effects of aridity in controlling the magnitude of runoff anderosion after wildfire, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4338–4357, doi:10.1002/2015WR017611.Ruth Lake Community Service District (2014). “Humboldt Bay Municpal Water District R.W. Matthews Dam- Project # 3430”http://www.ruthlakecsd.org/sidebar/area- history/.Shakesby, R. A., & Doerr, S. H. (2006). Wildfire as a hydrological and geomorphological agent. Earth-Science74(3-4), 269–307. A (2007). Mad River Total Maximum Daily Loads for Sediment and Delivery. Retrieved d-TMDL-122107signed.pdf.U.S. Geological Survey (2012). The StreamStats program for California, online views,
Apply the median sedimentation yield of surveyed reservoirs in a geomorphic region to un-surveyed reservoirs of the same region. 2. Predict future yearly reservoir capacities in reservoirs based on region. Minear, J. T., & Kondolf, G. M. (2009). Estimating reservoir sedimentation rates at large spatial and temp
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