MEASURING GDP IN A DIGITALISED ECONOMY
MEASURING GDPIN A DIGITALISED ECONOMYNadim Ahmad,Head of Trade and Competitiveness Statistics Division,nadim.ahmad@oecd.org
BackgroundMarket capitalisation of AirBnB ( Billions)Increased prevalence of‘new’ transformative(digital) technologiesBut .Trend labour productivity growth . Declining productivity2
– Shortage of ideas (Gordon)– Break-down of the diffusion machine andinequality (OECD)– A business cycle effect The Mis-measurement Hypothesis
?Charles Hulten:Valuing the Net andthe wide range ofapplications ischallenging . andtheir omission orundervaluation surelyaffects GDP.”The U.S. Underestimates GrowthCharlie Bean: “statisticshave failed to keep pacewith the impact ofdigital technology”Diane Coyle: The pace ofchange in OECDcountries is making theexisting statisticalframework decreasinglyappropriate formeasuring the economyThe internet and the productivity slumpWhy we’remeasuring thedigital economyin the wrongwaySome optimistsargue instead thatthe problem is oneof measurement.Technologicalprogress oftenraises productivityin ways thatstatistical agenciesstruggle to detect
But our collective response has (untillately) been less visible.and despite some notableresponses. Challenges to MismeasurementExplanations for the U.S. ProductivitySlowdown, Chad Syverson: NBER WorkingPaper No. 21974, February 2016 there remain morequestions than answers. and calls for action:Does the United States have a productivityslowdown or a measurement problem?Byrne, D., J.Fernald and M. Reinsdorf;Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Spring 2016.5
Partly reflecting the ill defined nature of the ‘digital’, ‘sharing’, ‘uberised’, ‘knowledgebased’ economyWhatSizeWhereWhoHowType
OECD response 2016– OECD Working Paper: Measuring GDP in a digitalisedeconomy 2017– Advisory Expert Group of NSOs (members of OECD WPNA),Eurostat, IMF, UN, and members of OECD WPMADE– OECD-IMF Working Paper: Can potential mismeasurement ofthe digital economy explain the post-crisis slowdown in GDPand productivity growth– OECD-IMF: Measuring Consumer Inflation in a DigitalEconomy– OECD-WTO Task Force on International Trade in Servicesexpert group– OECD-UPU-WTO-UNCTAD initiative on de minimis trade
Survey on measurement of GDP andproductivity in a digitalised economyWhatSizeWhereWhoHowStocktaking ofcurrent and bestpractices of OECDcountries and keypartners29 country responses
Our take on the MMH in 5 domains
1: New forms of intermediation services
Digital intermediariesDigital intermediariesDwelling servicesBusiness& TransportDistribution (e-Bay)Conclusions:Underling activities not new Conceptual framework robust –(VA fees, commissions, margins)But rise in ‘informal’ (occasionallyemployed) activities may requirereviews of estimation methodsImpact of mismeasurement notexpected to be large: Dwelling services vs Imputedrent Distribution services providedby households– margin notexpected be largeDual Use of Uber vehicles has no impact on GDP and only marginal impact on GFCFif recorded as investment – between 0.01% (France) and 0.05% (UK) in 2015
2: Consumers as producers – ‘participativeand displacing production’
‘Participative’ & ‘displacing’ productionHouseholds engaging in the intermediation processHousehold productionof services for ownconsumption:Hotels and flight bookingsNot a new phenomena Accounting frameworkexcludes many other ‘nonmarket’ transactionsSupermarket self-serviceOn-line check-inCash-machines Current price GDPunaffected But volume measuresmay not adequatelycapture qualitychanges
3:Free and subsidised consumer products
Free assetsHouseholds as ‘producers’ of free assetsNot a new phenomenaProduction of freely available ‘public’ goods:Covered in the Handbook on Deriving CapitalMeasures of IPPsWikipedia, SoftwareWikipedia: Page views and estimated advertising revenueNum b er of page views (m illions)WorldGDP(GDPUSD,current prices, constantDis play networkRevenue (USD m illions )CTR 0.35%CPC 0.58Value/ World GDP RatioRevenue (USD m illions )Search networkCTR 1.91%CPC 2.32Value/ World GDP Ratio2010143 3972012152 0962013160 6852015153 3302016183 79665 058 81673 355 55976 787 46683 300 93986 905 .0004%0.0004%6 3546 7407 1206 7948 1440.0098%0.0092%0.0093%0.0082%0.0094%Adjusted for PPPs2010201220132015% change be tw e e n2010 and 2015Re ve nue (USDm illions )Display netw orkCTR 0.35%CPC 0.58266.9274.5280240.4-9.90%Re ve nue (USDm illions )Search netw orkCTR 1.91%CPC 2.325 826.85 992.96 111.55 247.9-9.90%
4: Cross-border flows of intellectualproperty products
Knowledge based capital andglobalisation‘Investment’ outside of the SNA asset boundary and cross-border flowsMany ‘intangible’ assetsalready in the SNA but manyare not:Human capital,Knowledge in databases,Organisational capital ,Not a new phenomenaConsidered in the 2008 SNArevision process but ruled outon practical grounds.BrandsAnd for those assets in theboundary, difficulties withcross-border transactionsremainGuidance developed invarious Task Forces butfurther work needed as thescale of the problemremains unknownCase in point: Ireland’s GDP growth
Digital tradeNot always clear whether flows are cross-border – Mode 1 vs Mode 3 – norindeed the nature of the service – e.g. transportation or business services
De minimis tradePossible that larger sums are falling below the radar screenInformation is patchy :Where evidence is available itpoints to relatively small sums butlikelihood is that these aregrowing.Working with UPU,UNCTAD and WTO
DATA
5: Prices and volumes
Prices and volumesA significant challengeCustomisationOutlet biasQuality changeNot a new phenomenabut challenges remainPrice indices for software investment
Price indices for ICT assets andcommunication servicesAverage annual growth rate in percentage, 2010-2015 (or latest available year)UK showed increases ofnearly 3% per yearAustralia and France showed declines ofmore than 3% per yearNotes: Data reported for Spain for ICT equipment and Computer software and database correspond to the period 20102014. Data reported for Austria for Communication services correspond to the period 2011-2015.Source: OECD National Accounts Statistics, OECD Productivity Database, OECD Prices and Purchasing Power Paritiesdatabase, Australian Bureau of Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analyses and Statistics Canada, February 2017
Impact on GDP growth, usingalternative ICT & communication pricesMost countriesshow around0.2%-pointsBelgium showslargest impact0.4%-points25
Prices and volumes: results from surveyof national practicesIssueResponse Price differences indistribution margins frombuying products on-lineversus in a store: change in price; (16)change in quality. (9) If producer prices of goodsthat appear identical differ: Difference in price (18), inquality (5) Participative production One country (self-servicecheckouts8 countries using or exploring new data sources, such as web-scraping todeal with rapid quality changes. 5 others mention interest for compiling CPI.
Tentative conclusions and on-going actions
Tentative ConclusionsConceptual framework is robustMeasurement in some areas may require improvement and newapproaches for– The occasionally self-employed– International transactions in IPPs– Consistent classification of what is the ‘digital’ economyBut the impact is not expected to be significant for current priceestimatesVolumes and Prices– Evidence so far suggests that this will not be able to explain theproductivity slowdown (at most adds around 0.2% to growth)The problem can be part of the solution Digital intermediaries are increasingly asked to disclose turnover Big data offers new ways for price measurement and qualityadjustments (as in Cavallo and Rigobon 2016
On-going actionsA typology
And satellite accounts30
Thank you
2016 – OECD Working Paper: Measuring GDP in a digitalised economy 2017 – Advisory Expert Group of NSOs (members of OECD WPNA), Eurostat, IMF, UN, and members of OECD WPMADE – OECD-IMF Working Paper: Can potential mismeasurement of the digital economy
measure, and GDP PPP can be used for selected decision making. The key difference between GDP nominal and GDP PPP is that GDP nominal is the GDP unadjusted for the effects of inflation and is at current market prices whereas GDP PPP is the GDP converted to US dollars using purchasing power parity rates and divided by total population.File Size: 390KB
Annual Report - 2016 Profile Overview: Livestock Farming Graph 1 Agribusiness GDP representation in Brazil in 2015. Graph 2 Livestock farming GDP representation in Brazil's agribusiness GDP. Source: IBGE /Cepea - Prepared by ABIEC 2015 R - trillion Other sectors GDP 4.64 Agribusiness GDP 1.27 Total GDP in Brazil 5.9 Agribusiness GDP 21 % .
Maintenance in digitalised manufacturing: Delphi-based scenarios for 2030 Jon Bokrantz*, Anders Skoogh, Cecilia Berlin, Johan Stahre Department of Industrial and Material Science, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
GDP Nominal vs GDP PPP GDP per capita is the measure of the total output of a country where the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is divided by the total population in the country. Income per capita is a measure of income earned per person in a country within a given period of time.File Size: 263KB
GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This takes into account the different costs of living in countries. For example, a country like India will have a higher PPP GDP because although GDP is low, official exchange rates don’t reflect the lower living costs. You can see a comparison here GDP at PPP v GDP in nom
Million GDP ecological footprint, the production of the required resources and energy of the GDP of the ecological land area, can measure the use efficiency of regional resources by calculating the ecological footprint of the unit GDP: Million GDP ecological footprint EF/GDP.
DATA GRAPHIC; OECD IS THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT) DETECTIVES South America GDP grew 108% USA GDP grew 119% Unit 10 134 586640_TED_SB2_U10.indd 134 1/13/15 12:50 PM. Key More than 40,000 25,000 to 40,000 9,514 to 24,999 3,000 to 9,513 Less than 3,000 1980 GDP (black dots) 2009 GDP (all dots) World average: 9,514 Color indicates gross domestic product per .
Reading Comprehension GRADE 10. Student Name School Name. District Name. ELEMENTELEMENTARY & SECONDARYTARAARRY & SECONDAR&RY. Massachusetts Department of. This is a practice test. Your responses to practice test questions must be recorded on your Practice Test Answer Document. Mark only one answer for each multiple-choice question. If you are not sure of the answer, choose the answer you think .
