Charting The Course 2017
MACRO MUSINGSAugust 25, 2017Rush Zarrabian, CFAPortfolio ManagerCharting the course 2017SUMMARY In this issue, we “Chart the Course” by looking at key charts regarding the US economy, inflationand market performance. We find that the data in many of the following charts is consistent withwhat we see in MACROCAST . We hope you enjoy these, and will publish our next traditionalMacro Musings at the end of September.Charting the course: MACROCAST MACROCAST remains firm. The latest reading was strong at 13. According to the model, there is alow probability of recession and/or a major bear market.Charting the course: the economy
Retail Sales remain robust. There is no sign of economic slowdown from Retail Sales, which oftenstalls ahead of a recession.The future of housing looks good. Building Permits are volatile but the trend remains up.
Vehicle Sales are rolling over. With an economy as large and complex as the United States, not everyaspect will be performing well. Auto sales remain high, but have likely peaked for this business cycle.Charting the course. INFLATIONInflation varies significantly depending on whether or not an item is tradeable. A recent study from theU.S Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation from tradeable goods (like oil) has collapsed, whilenon-tradeable items (like childcare) are more stable and continue to rise.
Charting the course: Market & ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCEThe market’s performance is lagging on a long-term basis. The market has performed better than historyover the past 5 years, but its performance over 10 and 20 years is nothing to write home about (data fromBespoke Investment Group).Most asset classes are way up since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. We’ve come a long waysince the unofficial start of the Global Financial Crisis in August of 2007. Most major asset classes arehigher, led by European High Yield Bonds, while Commodities have lost the most value.
Selling after a geopolitical crisis breaks out can hurt. Ned Davis Research looked at market performanceafter various crises and found selling hurt, on average in the long run. (Data from Mark Hulbert)The chart(s)/graph(s) shown is(are) for informational purposes only and should not be considered as a suggestion of anyinvestment recommendation, investment strategy, or as an offer of advice to buy, sell, or exchange any investment product orinvestment vehicle. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. While the sources of information, including anyforward-looking statements and estimates, included in this (these) chart(s)/graph(s) was deemed reliable, Corbett Road WealthManagement, Spire Wealth Management LLC, Spire Securities LLC and its affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy.The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of SpireWealth Management LLC, Spire Securities LLC or its affiliates.All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.MacroCastTM is a proprietary index used by Corbett Road Wealth Management to help assist in the investment decision-makingprocess. Neither the information provided by MacroCastTM nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for thepurchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The phrase “the market” refers to the S&P500 Total Return Index unless otherwise stated. The phrase “risk assets” refers to equities, REITs, high yield bonds, and otherhigh volatility securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Spire Wealth Management, LLC is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through an affiliatedcompany, Spire Securities, LLC, a Registered Broker/Dealer and member FINRA/SIPC
what we see in MACROCAST . We hope you enjoy these, and will publish our next traditional Macro Musings at the end of September. Charting the course: MACROCAST MACROCAST remains firm. The latest reading was strong at 13. According to the model, there is a low probability of recession and/or a major bear market. Charting the course: the .
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14. Discuss how charting course design as presented can improve the learning experience for your student. Examine how WITC meets the QM Essential Standards using WIDS Software as the tool for charting the course design process. Assessment Activities 1. Use the Charting a Course to Quality Student Learning Assessment Task and Scoring Guide in your
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