Section 4 Creation Of New Businesses Through Co-creation .

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Section 4Creation of new businesses through co-creation of new value with emerging countriesamid accelerating digitalization worldwideAmid the trend of slowing growth in developed countries, a population decline coupled with a lowbirthrate has proceeded in Japan in particular, resulting in a rapid decrease in the working-age population.This is casting a long shadow over economic growth. If Japan is to realize sustainable growth in thefuture, it is important for the country to develop and strengthen a mechanism that enables it to be activelyinvolved with emerging and developing countries with growth potential and achieve growth together.As described in Chapter 2, which looked back at the history of globalization and the advance oftechnology, Japan has actively incorporated the second unbundling into its economy. Since the 1990s,Japanese companies, mainly those in manufacturing industries, have succeeded in achieving growthtogether with Asia by starting at an early time to actively invest in Asia and promote internationaldivision of work.Now, Japan is facing a historic turning point, where the global shift to digital economy is proceedingrapidly. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has occurred at a time when promisinggrowth companies capable of using digital technology to resolve social challenges come to the forefrontin countries where social infrastructure are underdeveloped. In this situation, there have been cases inwhich the public and private sectors worked together to accelerate leapfrogging digitalization. Forexample, the government of Asian emerging countries developed a contact tracing app together with aprivate-sector business operator, or a FinTech company received support from the government andcentral bank of an African country in order to mitigate the risk of infection due to hand-to-hand transferof cash. Amid this trend, in Japan, too, there have been cases in which the public sector worked togetherwith local companies to resolve social challenges in order to achieve sustainable growth. The initiativeto promote the digitalization trend in Asia is known as Asia Digital Transformation. This section looksat Japan’s co-creation of new value with local companies in Asia in order to achieve sustainable growthand Japan’s long-term industrial strategy based on that initiative.1. ASEAN and India as partners under the global industrial strategy in the era of digitalizationAt a time when economic growth slows down as a long-term trend and when global digitalcompanies, such as GAFA and BAT, 110 are absent in Japan, there are concerns over the country’spresence in the world. However, as Japan has relationships of trust with Asian countries that have beenbuilt up over many years, it is surrounded by an environment that allows it to continue to be activelyinvolved with those countries. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly important to focus attention onAsia, mainly Southeast Asia and India, from the viewpoints of exploring new markets, enhancingcompetitiveness, increasing Japan’s presence, and managing risks.First, this section shows the potential for strengthening cooperation with ASEAN and India byexamining the economic size, growth potential, business environment, the penetration of digitaleconomy, and workers with digital skills in Asian emerging countries.110 Major players leading digitalization. GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon) are U.S.companies, and BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent) are Chinese companies.354

(1) Economic size and growth potential(A) GDPA comparison of countries around the world in terms of the average annual growth rate of GDPvalue (purchasing power parity basis) in 2016 and 2050 shows that developed countries are expected tobe replaced by emerging countries as the driving force of the global economy. Among noteworthy pointsare the prospect that India will surpass the United States 111 and ASEAN’s growing presence. Morespecifically, Indonesia, which was ranked eighth in 2016, is expected to rise to the fourth place in 2050,and Malaysia, the Philippines and Viet Nam are also expected to rise significantly in the GDP rankings(Table II-3-4-1).(B) PopulationA comparison of countries around the world in terms of the average annual growth rate ofpopulation between 2019 and 2050 shows that the populations of developed countries and regions otherthan the United States will decline. While the margin of decline for Japan is the largest at 0.6% per yearon average, the populations of Europe (a decline of 0.2%) and China (a decline of 0.1%) are alsoexpected to decline. The aging of society coupled with a low birthrate and a population decline affectboth supply and demand sides of the economy. On the other hand, as the populations of India andSoutheast Asia are expected to grow by 0.6% per year on average, economic expansion can be expected(Figure II-3-4-2).(C) Labor forceA comparison of countries around the world in terms of the average annual growth rate of theworking-age population, which forms the core of production activity, shows that the working-agepopulations of developed countries and regions other than the United States are expected to decline. Thepace of decline in the working-age population is expected to be more rapid than the pace of decline inthe overall population. While the pace of decline for Japan is the fastest at by 1.1%, the working-agepopulations of Europe (a decline of 0.6%) and China (a decline of 0.6%) are also expected to decline,meaning an increase in the population onus. On the other hand, the working-age population is projectedto grow by 0.6% in India and by 0.4% in Southeast Asia, with the population of younger generationsincreasing, so India and Southeast Asia are expected to replace China as the world’s main productionand consumer location (Figure II-3-4-3).111 The value of GDP on a purchasing power parity basis was 18.6 trillion dollars in the United States and8.7 trillion dollars in India in 2016 and is estimated to be 34.1 trillion dollars in the United States and44.1 trillion dollars in 2050.355

Table II-3-4-1 Top 30 countries in GDP value (purchasing power parity; estimates in 2016 Saudi nesSouth MexicoJapanGermanyU.K.TurkeyFranceSaudi ArabiaNigeriaEgyptPakistanIranROKPhilippinesViet NamItalyCanadaBangladeshMalaysiaThailandSpainSouth AfricaAustraliaArgentinaPoland: G7: ASEAN countries and IndiaNotes: GDP values are based on a purchasing power parity. Viet Nam ranked the 32nd place in 2016.Source: “The world in 2050” (Pricewaterhouse Coopers Co., Ltd.).356

Figure II-3-4-2Population and average annual growth rates in major countries and regions(2019-2050; estimates)1(%)Average annual growth rate of population0.8Southeast e-0.2-0.4Japan-0.6-0.6-0.8-1Notes: The size of a bubble represents the scale of population. Bubbles in blue show positive averageannual growth rates of population and those in gray show negative rates thereof. The data in thefigure are estimated medium variants. The data on average annual growth rates are those from 2019to 2050.Source: World Population Prospects 2019 (UN).Figure II-3-4-3Working-age population and average annual growth rates in major countriesand regions (2019-2050; estimates)(%) 1.5Average annual growth rate of working-age population1Southeast 1Japan-1.1-1.5357

Notes: The size of a bubble represents the scale of working-age population. Bubbles in blue showpositive average annual growth rates of such population and those in gray show negative ratesthereof. The data in the figure are estimated medium variants. The data on average annual growthrates are those from 2019 to 2050.Source: World Population Prospects 2019 (UN).(D) MarketOver the 20-year period from 1998 to 2018, household consumption expenditure increased only2.4-fold in the United States, 1.9-fold in the EU 112 and 1.3-fold in Japan, while the increases in ASEANand India were much larger, 6.1-fold and 6.0-fold, respectively. Although the figures are smaller thanthe 11.2-fold increase in China, India’s and ASEAN’s markets are expected to continue growing in lightof their population expansion and economic growth potentials (Figure II-3-4-4).Figure II-3-4-4 Household consumption expenditures in major countries and regions (changesover 20-year period)Times (1998-2018)12(Trillion o20Times (right axis)Notes: The data in this figure show private-sector consumption expenditures in GDP (demand side).Source: UNdata.(2) Importance of improving the business environment(A) Global business environmentAccording to the Doing Business 2020 report, published by the World Bank, of the 190 countriessurveyed, Singapore came in second in the overall business environment rankings, 113 while Malaysiaand Thailand were ranked 12th and 21st. The business environment in these countries was assessed to112 Here, the “EU” refers to all 28 EU member countries.113 New Zealand was ranked first.358

be better than the environment in Japan (ranked 29th). As the level of development varies widely acrossthe 10 member countries of ASEAN, the business environment in least developed ASEAN countries,particularly Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar, is underdeveloped, but it is noteworthy that moredeveloped ASEAN countries are ranked higher than Japan in terms of the business environment. Amongother Asian countries, China and India were assessed by the report to be among the “economies with themost notable improvement“ in the world. 114 The rankings of Asian countries are expected to continuerising as a general trend. As there is some degree of correlation between the business environmentranking and inward foreign direct investment, countries assessed to have improved the businessenvironment are likely to be favored as investment destinations by countries around the world (Table II3-4-5).Table II-3-4-5 Ranking of business environment in 2020Rank iaBruneiDarussalamViet NamIndonesiaPhilippinesCambodiaLao PDRMyanmarDealing withProtectingTradingStarting aGetting Registering GettingPayingEnforcing city propertycredittaxescontracts 38.068.155.148.50.020.4Source: “Ease of Doing Business Ranking” (Doing Business 2020 (World Bank)).(B) Assessment of and Expectations for JapanJapan is assessed by ASEAN to be a country that can “do the right thing to contribute to globalpeace, security, prosperity and governance.” 115 In addition, Japan, like the EU, is assessed highly forexercising “leadership in championing free trade” and in “maintaining the rules-based order andupholding international law” (Figure II-3-4-6).114 It is said that in China, efforts to improve the business environment by establishing working groups forindividual sectors covered by the indicator contributed significantly to improvement. Meanwhile, inIndia’s case, it is said that inter-state competition to improve the business environment that arose afterthe creation of a state-by-state business environment ranking contributed significantly to improvement.115 According to a survey conducted by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, a think tank affiliated with thegovernment of Singapore, with ASEAN’s 10 member countries (the survey was conducted onlinebetween November 12th and December 1st, 2019). Respondents were selected from five fields (researchinstitutions, business and finance, public organizations, civil society organizations, and media). Thesurvey examined how ASEAN organizations view the regional situation and partner countries.359

Figure II-3-4-6Countries that ASEAN countries are confident in as those doing the right thingto contribute to global peace, prosperity and 314.61.8China4.74.1EUU.S.Very confident1.4IndiaConfidentSource: The States of Southeast Asia: 2020 Survey Report (ISEAS-Yusfo Ishak Institute)2. Penetration of digital economyTurning attention to digital economy, which is achieving remarkable growth, the internet economyof ASEAN6 116 has rapidly grown, expanding at a rate nearly five times as high as the growth rate ofGDP. One factor behind the rapid growth is the presence of young generations, which account for thebulk of the population. A comparison between nominal GDP and the internet economy (grossmerchandize value, or GMV) in terms of the annual average growth rate between 2015 and 2019highlights the prominent growth of the digital economy, with the growth rate of 33.0% for the interneteconomy far outpacing the growth rate of 6.1% for nominal GDP. Between 2015 and 2025, nominalGDP is forecast to record a steady annual average growth rate of 6.6%, while the internet economy isexpected to continue growing more rapidly, with an average growth rate of 28.2% (Figure II-3-4-7).116 ASEAN6 refers to Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.360

Figure II-3-4-7Changes in nominal GDP and the internet economy (GMV) in terms of annualaverage growth rates in six ASEAN countries otal nominal GDP2015 2019Internet economy (GMV)2019 20252015 2025Source: Google, Temasek, Bain & Company.(1) Expanding internet economyThe number of internet users in ASEAN6 increased from 260 million people in 2015 to 360 millionpeople in 2019. Around half of the internet users, or 180 million people, purchase goods and servicesvie the internet. In short, there is room for a further market expansion.The internet economy in ASEAN6 is rapidly expanding. The value of the internet economy, whichwas 32 billion dollars in 2015, increased to 100 billion dollars in 2019 and is expected to grow to 300billion dollars in 2025 117 (Figure II-3-4-8). In India, the value of the internet economy is expected togrow to 200 billion dollars by 2027. 118Below, the situations in individual ASEAN6 countries will be examined.The annual average growth rate of the size of the internet economy between 2015 and 2025 ishigher than 10% in all of the six countries. The growth rate is particularly high in Indonesia (32%), VietNam (29%), the Philippines (27%) and Thailand (24%).The estimated share of the internet economy in 2025 in nominal GDP is high in Viet Nam (10.9%),Indonesia (8.3%), and Thailand (7.3%), where the shift to digital economy is expected to proceed.The above data indicate that the pace of growth of the internet economy is higher in developingcountries where the per-capita income level is low than in relatively developed countries where the percapita income level is high, such as Singapore and Malaysia (Figure II-3-4-9).117 Local internet sales, travel reservation services, online media, and sharing services are growing.118 A survey by Ernst & Young .cms?from mdr).361

Figure II-3-4-8Internet economy (GMV) in six ASEAN countries (estimates)Unit: 100 million dollars3,0001,000320202520192015Source: Google, Temasek, Bain & Company.Figure II-3-4-9Percentages of internet economy (GMV) in nominal GDP and annual averagegrowth rates of internet economy in six ASEAN countries(%) 40Indonesia35Viet NamAverage annual growth rate ofinternet economy apore1050024681012Percentage of internet economy in nominal GDP (2025; %)14Notes: The size of a bubble represents a scale of the internet economy. The data on nominal GDP arebased on the 2024 estimates as substitute data.Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database (IMF, October 2019), Google, Temasek, Bain &Company.362

(2) Leapfrogging to mobile phonesMost of new subscribers for the internet are young people, and it is said that 90% of all users accessthe internet via mobile phone. A comparison of emerging countries and major countries in terms of thenumber of mobile phone subscriptions shows that the increase in the number is the largest in China,followed by India and the ASEAN area (Figure II-3-4-10).Figure II-3-4-10Changes in number of mobile phone subscriptions in major countries andregions(100 million 0(Year)Notes: The number of mobile phone subscriptions decreased in India in 2012 not because the demanddecreased, but because the mobile phone companies disconnected long-term unused pre-paid SIMcards and canceled contracts thereof to improve their return rates.Source: International Telecommunication Union (ITU).The number of mobile phone subscriptions per 100 persons is high in ASEAN member countries,led by Thailand, where the number is 180, followed by Viet Nam with 147, and Singapore with 146. Inthese countries, mobile phone usage is more widespread than in Japan (Figure II-3-4-11).363

Figure II-3-4-11Number of mobile phone subscriptions in major countries and regions (per 100people)(Number of phones)200180180160147 146140120139 135132 130124 120 119118 115 1141101008780526040200Notes: The data in the figure are the values in 2018 (the data on the Philippine are the values in 2017).The data on Japan include those on PHS phones.Source: ITU.In 2000, developed countries accounted for the majority, or 65.2% of the global number of mobilephone subscriptions, but later, the share of developing countries surpassed the share of developedcountries, coming to 80.2% in 2019. That is because developing countries, unlike developed countries,leapfrogged to mobile phones without going through the process of installing fixed phones on accountof the lower infrastructure development cost and higher convenience and functionality of mobile phones(Figure II-3-4-12). In contrast to the situation in developed countries, where the growth in the numberof subscriptions is already showing signs of slowing down, the number of subscription is expected tocontinue increasing in India (particularly in rural areas) and ASEAN (particularly in least developedcountries).364

Figure II-3-4-12Changes in global number of mobile phone subscribers and changes in sharesof developed and developing ntryTotal: 719 million untryDevelopingcountryTotal: 2.2 billion peopleTotal: 8.3 billion peopleNotes: The data in 2019 are estimates.Source: ITU.(3) Penetration of digitalization in everyday life and expansion of data flow volumeAn international comparison of the average time spent on the internet per day shows that theaverage time in ASEAN4, namely Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, is higher than theglobal average (3 hours and 14 minutes), with Thailand ranked first with 5 hours and 13 minutes. Theaverage time spent on the internet per day in Japan is short at 1 hour and 25 minutes, the same as inFrance (Figure II-3-4-13).Figure II-3-4-13 Average time spent on the internet per day (only for mobile devices) by Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaTaiwanChinaWorldViet NamHong denRussiaSpainPolandNew raliaBelgiumGermanyJapanFrance1:25Notes: The data in this figure only show those on mobile devices.Source: We are Social.365

Moreover, whereas the average time spent on social media per day is 36 minutes in Japan, it is 4hours and 12 minutes in the Philippines, which was ranked first, leaving far behind second-ranked Brazil(3 hours and 34 minutes). The social media penetration rate in the population of people aged 13 or olderis 69% in Japan, while it is 99%, the highest in the world, in Malaysia and the Philippines. 119These data indicate that in ASEAN, digitalization has penetrated incomparably deeper into thepeople’s everyday life than in Japan. The data also show that the penetration of digitalization in India isdeeper than the global average.Given the long time spent on the internet and the large size of user populations, data flow volumesin ASEAN and India are presumed to be increasing rapidly.(4) Abundance of workers with high digital skills in IndiaBecause of the rapid economic digitalization, workers with science and engineering skills arerequired worldwide. While countries around the world have in recent years placed emphasis on STEM(science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education and strived to foster workers adapted toan IT society, India has been particularly successful.Although India was problematic as a production location due to the underdevelopment ofinfrastructure, it has advantages such as the high level of English proficiency, abundance of youngworkers, and low labor cost in addition to its traditional commitment to education. In the 1990s, whenthe IT revolution was about to occur in the United States, major U.S. companies such as Microsoft andIBM turned attention to India and established business operations there, and the business community 120actively lobbied for government support. These moves acted as a springboard for the remarkableadvance of the IT industry. The Indian IT industry’s role has qualitatively evolved, from a supplier ofoffshore outsourcing services concerning IT business processes (business process offshoring, or BPO)in the 1990s and 2000s to a supplier of research and development (R&D) work, upstream design work,and innovation in 2010 and thereafter (Figure II-3-4-14).Figure II-3-4-14 Qualitative evolution of Indian IT industry’s role1990s-2000sOffshore outsourcing(BPO)Commissioned countryIn and after 2010An increase in costs in SiliconValley, causing the IT industryto tend to expand its businessacross the world.Shifting the focus from internetindustries to data industries anddeveloping the latter industriesPower shift from Westerncountries to Asian countries seenfrom the macro-topologyEducation on technologies inIndiaResearch anddevelopmentDesigningupstream processesInnovationSupply destinationSource: Technological Thinking (Ebihara, T.).119 A survey by We Are Social.120 From early on after its foundation in 1988, NASSCOM, an industry association, was strongly requestingthe government to strengthen the IT sector, and as a result, the government implemented an IT strategy.366

The IT industry is supported by higher education institutions in India. Competent workers withscience and engineering skills are produced by the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT), which have 23universities across India, among other educational institutions that place emphasis on collaborationbetween industry, academia and government. In India, there are more than 3,000 science and engineeringuniversities, from which more than 1.5 million students graduate per year, according to publisheddata. 121 This figure is three times as large as the number of new graduates from all universities in Japan(the great majority of whom majored in humanities subjects 122).For reference, the number of higher education institutions and the number of students in India areas shown below. The scale of the difference in the numbers of students at higher education institutionsin Japan and India is apparent, although the comparison is not necessarily precise for reasons such asthe difference in the definitions of education institutions (Table II-3-4-15).Table II-3-4-15 Number of higher education institutions and number of students in IndiaHigher educationNumber ofNumber ofinstitution in IndiaschoolsstudentsUniversityCollegesStand AloneInstitutions99339,931(Reference)Higher educationinstitution in JapanUniversitiesJunior colleges37,400,000 colleges of technology10,725Special training colleges miscellaneous schoolsNumberNumber ofof schoolsstudents7803943,849,6364,355Notes: As the definition of higher education varies among countries, the breakdowns above wereexcerpted from the original text without change.Sources: As for India: All India Survey on Higher Education (Ministry of Human ResourceDevelopment, India); as for Japan: NIHON NO TOUKEI 2019 (Statistics Bureau, Ministry ofInternal Affairs and Communications).Next, the status of human capital development was examined. Indian workers in industrial sectorswill be examined. Regarding the number of employees at IT services companies in India, the number is400,000 people at Tata Consultancy Services, 200,000 at Infosys, and 100,000 at Wipro, and most ofthose employees are engineers. Among foreign companies, IBM employs 130,000 workers andAccenture employs more than 100,000 workers in India. These figures are larger than the numbers ofworkers employed in the United States, and that is also the case with many other companies. Many ofthe CEOs and founders of major global IT companies such as Google, Microsoft and Adobe are first121 According to data compiled by the All India Council for Technical Education.122 According to data concerning the current situation of senior high schools in Japan, students attendinggeneral courses account for around 70% (800,000 students) and students attending specialist coursesaccount for around 30% (300,000 students) of the total number of senior high school students. Of allstudents attending general courses, around 70% (500,000 students) are taking humanities courses. Atmany schools, students are divided into humanities and science courses, starting in the second year ofsenior high school, and tend to not study some particular subjects sufficiently.367

generation immigrants from India, and the presence of Indian workers is also significant in Silicon Valley,where a startup ecosystem has been formed. Among ASEAN countries, Singapore, which is oftenselected as a regional hub, is said to have many Indian workers with science and engineering skills.Cooperating with Indian workers with science and engineering skills is considered to be an effectiveoption for Japan to respond to the rapid economic digitalization.As described above, data analysis was conducted from the viewpoints of economic size, growthpotentials (GDP, population, labor force, and market), importance of improving the businessenvironment, penetration of digital economy (expansion of data flow volume), and workers with digitalskills. If Japan is to respond to the rapid economic digitalization and maintain long-term growth andglobal presence, it should actively cooperate with Southeast Asia and India.3. Examples of digital transformation in Southeast Asia and IndiaIn the ASEAN area and India, many startup companies have emerged in the digital consumerservices sector, and their valuations are rapidly growing. Under business models that are nonexistent inJapan, these emerging companies are engaging in businesses that lead to the development of economicand social infrastructure and to the resolution of social challenges. Below, as examples of suchcompanies, Gojek, Tokopedia, and Zilingo will be introduced.[Gojek]Gojek is a representative emerging digital company in the ASEAN area. While Gojek’s corebusiness is an online car dispatching service, the company also engages in a diverse range of otherservices, including e-commerce site operation, transportation and delivery of goods, food delivery, andelectronic settlement. Gojek was founded in 2010 and became a unicorn company 123 in 2016 with avaluation of 1.3 billion dollars and the second decacorn company 124 in Southeast Asia in 2019 with avaluation of over 10 billion dollars. The number of registered drivers has increased 10-fold (from200,000 in 2016 to 2 million in February 2019), 125 the number of app downloads has surpassed 140million, 126 and the annual number of transactions has come to 2 billion.Gojek’s founder is Nadiem Makarim, 127 who was born in 1984 to an Indonesian family inSingapore. The motivation for founding the company was to improve the efficiency of Indonesia’smotorcycle taxis through technology. 128 The company adopted a business model of earning income by123 Unlisted companies with a valuation of 1 billion dollars or higher.124 Unlisted companies with a valuation of 10 billion dollars or higher.125 “Research on international trends of concerning intermediary business of individual goods and servicesin the transportation field” (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism, p. 22, June2018, 48.pdf).126 As of April 2019.127 After graduating from a U.S. university and working as a management consultant, Makarim obtainedan MBA at the Harvard Business School (HBS). At the HBS, he engaged in the study of business forBoP (Base of the Pyramid), which refers to families at the bottom of the social ladder. Anthony Tan,who is the founder of Grab, a decacorn company providing

Section 4 Creation of new businesses through co-creation of new value with emerging countries amid accelerating digitalization worldwide . Amid the trend of slowing growth in developed countries, a population decline coupled with a low birthrate has proceeded in Japan in particular, resulting in a rapid decrease in the working -age population .

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