International Institute Of Forecasters Presents: The 36th International .
International Institute of Forecasters presents:The 36th InternationalSymposium onForecastingSantander, Spain 19-22 June 2016
ISF 2016 PROGRAMProgram and AbstractsThe 36th International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF 2016)19 - 22 June Santander, SpainISSN 1997-41162
ISF 2016 PROGRAMContentsWelcome from the General Chair ····················· 4Welcome from the IIF President ······················· 5Sponsors ··· 6Organizing and Program Committees ················ 7Invited Session Organizers ····· 7Schedule ··· 8List of Sessions by Topic Area ························· 11ABSTRACTS ···················· 14Guidelines For Speakers ····· 113IIF Membership Benefits ···· 114Index ···· 115Floor Plans – Palace de la Magdelena ·············· 1183
ISF 2016 PROGRAMWelcome to Santander!On behalf of ISF 2016 and the International Institute of Forecasters, I welcome you to the 36thInternational Symposium on Forecasting. And on behalf of the City Hall, the Cantabria Governmentand the Universidad Internacional Menendez y Pelayo, I welcome you to Santander and to Spain. Thisis the second time that ISF is taking place in Spain. So, when I accepted the challenge to organize thisevent, I have no doubt in my mind that given the experience of my previous ISF 2006, the idea ofchoosing again Santander and the Magdalena Palace was a safe bet. As I previously found, Cantabria isone of Spain’s hidden jewels, with a breath taking array of landscapes ranging from spectacularmountains bedecked with flower filled meadows to lush green valleys and dense forests which providea safe haven for some of the country’s few remaining wolves and bears.If you’re thinking of planning a getaway to Cantabria in what is known as Green Spain, you can lookforward to enjoying a trip full of natural landscapes, excellent gastronomy and a unique artistic andarchitectural heritage. This northern part of Spain is home to various prehistoric caves, of which themost famous of all is Altamira, awarded the World Heritage designation and known as the "SistineChapel of Prehistoric Art". Cantabria also lies on the famous Way of Saint James pilgrim route, and itstowns and villages contain a wealth of beautiful monuments such as the monastery of Santo Toribio deLiébana or Gaudí’s “Capricho” monument in Comillas. You’ll also marvel at the spectacularlandscapes, as the coast of Cantabria offers over 60 beaches with fine white sand in holiday resortssuch as Laredo and San Vicente de la Barquera. And further inland, as well as its various naturereserves, nobody should miss a visit to the Picos de Europa National Park, the ideal place for adventuresports. An additional attraction when visiting this area is its first-rate gastronomy. You'll be able tosample typical dishes such as the bean stew known as “cocido montañés”, “sobaos” (sponge cakes) andthe “quesada pasiega” cheesecake. And to relax, what could be better than one of its famous sparesorts?Such a splendid site deserved a truly outstanding scientific program. High quality, and well known,keynote and featured speakers were invited to cover different fields of interest within the IIF and ourcall for papers included more than twenty different areas of research. We received 375 abstracts andthe scientific committee faced a top job of selection and including them into the 93 regular, invited andpractitioner track sessions that constitutes the program that you are about to see. Honoring its name,ISF continues to be a truly international event with more than 350 delegates from 38 different countriescovering all five continents. Also, 130 new delegates registered for the first time at ISF this year. Ihope that this new “breed” will stay with us in future symposia and will be an important driving forcein shaping the future of the institute. To them and to all of you my sincere gratitude for thinking thatISF 2016 was worth it.Organizing an ISF is not a one man’s job. Since I started planning ISF2016 in 2012, many people andorganizations who have helped me, I am very grateful. To all our academic and professional sponsorsfor their generous financial help, to my fellow members of the IIF’s Board for supporting Santander2016, and to the Program Chair, Pilar Poncela, and our Business Director, Pam Stroud, for theirdedication and devotion in preparing the program.Antonio Garcia-FerrerGeneral Chair, ISF 20164
ISF 2016 PROGRAMWelcome from the IIF PresidentOn behalf of the International Institute of Forecasters and its Board of Directors, I welcome you to the36th International Symposium on Forecasting in Santander, Spain, a magnificent city in the northernregion of Cantabria. This is the second time that the Symposium takes place in the Magdalena Palace, amajestic site hosting once more a truly international gathering of academic and industry forecasters.My special welcome to the 130 new delegates registered for the first time at the ISF. The Symposiumprovides excellent opportunities to interact with the world leading researchers and practitioners, and tolearn about new developments and industry practices in the many fields of forecasting. I hope that youactively participate in the many sessions, enjoy the dialogue, and have fun. As a member of the IIF,you will receive the International Journal of Forecasting, the premier forecasting journal; Foresight: theInternational Journal of Applied Forecasting; and The Oracle, our newsletter. Please considersubmitting your work to one of more of these outlets. If you are not an IIF member yet, I would like toinvite you to visit our website http://forecasters.org to familiarize yourself with the activities of theInstitute or visit our registration desk in the premises.Being faithful to our educational mission, the IIF sponsors several initiatives to promote research inforecasting with the highest scientific standards. The generous support of SAS Corporation has allowedus to offer competitive annual awards in the areas of forecasting methodology and applications. Wealso contribute to the professional development of practitioners through alternative certificationprograms. To encourage attendance to the ISF, we continue to offer a limited number of travel awardsto young researchers and Ph.D. students. Since 2003, we have been sponsoring small-scale specializedworkshops on various topics. In this past year 2015, we sponsored three workshops: ICT andInnovation Forecasting in Paris, Tourism Forecasting in Hong Kong, and Advances in Time Series andForecasting in Paris, and we also organized a summer school “Forecasting in a ChangingEnvironment” in Santander. For detailed information on these activities and forthcoming workshops in2016, please visit our website workshops/. I invite youto attend the IIF members meeting, which will be held on Monday June 20th at 6:10 pm. The IIFDirectors and I will be happy to share with you the highlights of the current and future activities of theInstitute and listen to your questions and suggestions.The organization and management of the Institute depends heavily on volunteers. New directors areelected annually to serve a three-year term and the president is elected among the directors. It is mypleasure to welcome two new elected directors, Nuno Crato and Fotios Petropoulos, and I wish themwell in their duties. The outgoing directors, Haiyan Song and Eric Stellwagen, deserve my most sinceregratitude for their contributions to the Institute and their work over the years. Finally, my warmestthanks to Antonio García-Ferrer, the General Chair of the Symposium, Pilar Poncela, Program Chair,and Len Tashman, Chair of the Forecasting in Practice track, for their energy and dedication to makethis Symposium a most memorable event. I am also grateful to our business director, Pam Stroud, whowith her usual diligence has kept everybody on track, and to our sponsors who strongly support ourmission.To all delegates, my best wishes for a productive and enjoyable symposium and a nice stay inSantander!Gloria Gonzalez-RiveraPresident, International Institute of Forecasters5
ISF 2016 PROGRAMWe would like to thank our Sponsors and Exhibitors6
ISF 2016 PROGRAMOrganizing CommitteeProgram CommitteeAntonio Garcia-Ferrer, General ChairUniversidad Autonoma de Madrid, SpainPilar Poncela, Program ChairEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre,ItalyLen Tashman, Program Chair, PractitionerEditor, Foresight, USAJose Luis Gallego, Local OrganizerUniversidad de Cantabria, SpainMohsen Hamoudia, France TelecomAna M. Fuertes, Cass Business School, CityUniversity London, UKGroup, ESDES Business School, FrancePam Stroud, IIF Business Director, USA Gloria González-Rivera, University ofCalifornia at Riverside, USAGael Martin, Monash University, AustraliaDilek Önkal, Bilkent University, TurkeyDaniel Peña, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid,SpainEsther Ruiz, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid,SpainAris Syntetos, Cardiff University, UKInvited Session OrganizersJuha AlhoJoerg BreitungJennifer CastleNuno CratoGianluca CubaddaAna GalvaoDavid HendryTao HongJoão IsslerRobert KunstMarcin ŁupińskiGael MartinGian Luigi MazziElias MorenoMichela NardoDilek OnkalEva OrtegaJavier PerezValerio PotiMaría Jesús Sánchez NaranjoEva SenraPeter YoungUniversity of HelsinkiUniversity of CologneOxford UniversityEC-JRC & University of LisbonUniversity of Rome "Tor Vergata"University of WarwickOxford UniversityUniversity of North Carolina CharlotteEPGE/FGVUniversity of ViennaNational Bank of PolandMonash UniversityEuropean Commission - EurostatUniversidad de GranadaEuropean Commission - Joint Research CentreBilkent UniversityBank of SpainBank of SpainUniversity College DublinUniversidad Politécnica de MadridUniversidad de AlcalaUniversity of Lancaster7
ISF 2016 PROGRAMSchedule Registration will be at Caballerizas & Paraninfo and at the Main Entrance of the Palacio de laMagdalena Tickets for the Gala Event will be available on Sunday, 19 June at the registration desk. Registration HoursSun, 19 June8:30 - 9:00, 15:00 - 17:30Mon-Tue, 20-21 June 8:00 - 17:00 (closed during lunch session)Wed, 22 June8:00 - 10:00Saturday 18 June10:00-16:00IIF Directors MeetingSunday 19 June10:00-16:00IIF Directors Meeting9:00-16:00Workshop 1: Using Time Series and Regression Techniques to ImproveForecast Accuracy in Business Applications (Santo Mauro)Eric Stellwagen, Business Forecast Systems, Inc.9:00-16:00Workshop 2: Forecasting with R (Infantes)Fotios Petropoulos, Cardiff University and Nikolaos Kourentzes, Lancaster University9:00-12:00Workshop 3: Forecasting to meet demand (Bringas)Roland Martin, SAP AG13:00-16:00Workshop 4: Mining Transactional and Time Series Data (Biblioteca)Michael Leonard, Advanced Analytics R&D, SAS Institute, Inc.9:00-12:00Workshop 5: Time Series Modeling with Unobserved Components (Biblioteca)Rajesh Selukar, SAS Institute, Inc.13:00-17:00Workshop 6: The Learning of Neural Networks (Bringas)Hans-Georg Zimmerman, Siemens AG16:30-17:15IJF Editor’s Meeting, (Comedor De Infantes)18:30-20:00Welcome Reception – Palacio de la Magdalena, Hall RoomMonday 20 June8:45-9:00Welcome AddressRodrigo Martinez-Val, Vice Chancellor, UIMPParaninfo9:00-10:00Keynote Address, Edward LeamerParaninfo10:15-11:1510:15-11:35FPT Speaker, Aris SyntetosEnergy Forecasting 1Forecast Evaluation 1Forecasting Methods 1InflationJudgemental ForecastingPredictability in financial marketsRecent advances in distributional forecastingSignal extraction 1Rector Ernest LluchInfantesComedor de InfantesPedro Salinas 2Pedro Salinas 1BringasSanto tdoors12:00-13:00FPT Speaker, Daniel BarrettRector Ernest Lluch8
ISF 2016 PROGRAM12:00-13:20Business CycleData for Forecasting in EducationForecasting in industryForecasting inflationLoad forecasting: research progress and challengesMacroeconomic Uncertainty and ForecastingMultivariate time series models in economics and financeSeasonal Adjustment 1Santo MauroPedro Salinas 1Comedor de InfantesInfantesBringasParaninfoBibliotecaPedro Salinas ed Speaker, Todd ClarkDemand-supply forecastingHealth ForecastingJudgemental Forecasting and disagreementTime SeriesParaninfoSanto MauroBibliotecaBringasInfantes15:40 – 16:40FPT Speaker, Bram DesmetEarly warningsEnergy pricesFiscal forecasting when fiscal policies are uncertainForecast Evaluation 2Forecasting applicationsForecasting turning pointsMacro ForecastingSignal Extraction 2Rector Ernest LluchSanto MauroPedro Salinas 1BringasParaninfoInfantesBibliotecaComedor de InfantesPedro Salinas 216:40-17:00BreakTerrace-outdoors17:00-18:00FPT Speaker, Greg ParlierDemand ForecastingEnergy Forecasting 2Forecast Evaluation 3Forecasting in economics and societyForecasting methods 2Forecasting using Common FeaturesNowcasting and Forecasting 1Risk forecastingRector Ernest LluchPedro Salinas 2Pedro Salinas 1Santo MauroInfantesComedor de InfantesBringasParaninfoBiblioteca18:10-18:30IIF Members MeetingINFANTESTuesday 21 June9:00-10:00Keynote Address, Greg AllenbyParaninfo10:15-11:15FPT Speaker, Dilek OnkalRector Ernest Lluch10:15-11:35Featured Speaker, José DuatoEnergy Forecasting 3Forecast combination 1Forecasting with big dataLearning forecasting methodsMacroeconometrics and ForecastingParaninfoBringasBibliotecaSanto MauroPedro Salinas 0012:00-13:20FPT Speaker, Stephan KolassaApplications in Engineering and FinanceClimate modeling and forecasting IDemographic Forecasting in Diverse WorldEconomics and FinanceRector Ernest LluchPedro Salinas 2BibliotecaSanto MauroComedor de Infantes9
ISF 2016 PROGRAMExpectations and Uncertainty in Survey ForecastsForecast combination 2Forecasting Methods and Applications 1The role of forecasting in climate changeBringasInfantesPedro Salinas :30Keynote Address, Henrik MadsenParaninfo15:40 – 16:40FPT Speaker, Christian SchäferBayesian Methods 1Business cycle analysis 1Financial forecastingForecast combination 3Forecast EvaluationForecasting in PracticeForecasting methods with applicationsPrices and inflationRector Ernest LluchInfantesParaninfoComedor de InfantesSanto MauroBibliotecaBringasPedro Salinas 1Pedro Salinas 216:40-17:00BreakTerrace-outdoors17:00-18:00FPT Speaker, Eric StellwagenApplied forecasting methodsBayesian methods 2Business cycle analysis 2Clustering and other Bayesian methodsEnergy Forecasting 4Financial forecastingForecasting SystemsSources of forecasting uncertaintyRector Ernest LluchBibliotecaPedro Salinas 1ParaninfoSanto MauroBringasPedro Salinas 2Comedor de InfantesInfantesWednesday 22 June9:00-10:00Keynote Address, Adrian RafteryParaninfo10:15-11:35Climate modeling and forecasting IIDensity forecastingForecasting methods in economics and financeForecasting PerformanceForecasting, Uncertainty and RiskSeasonal Adjustment 2The role of forecasts in policyTime series and econometricsBibliotecaBringasInfantesSanto MauroPedro Salinas 2Pedro Salinas 1ParaninfoComedor de Infantes11:35-12:0012:00-13:00BreakFPT Speaker, Nikolaos KourentzesTerrace-outdoorsRector Ernest Lluch12:00-13:20Featured Speaker, Robert FildesParaninfo12:00-13:20Big data, nowcasting and forecastingForecasting ApplicationsForecasting in tourism and sportsForecasting Methods and Applications 2BibliotecaInfantesBringasSanto Mauro13:20-14:30LUNCHTerrace-outdoors10
ISF 2016 PROGRAMList of Sessions by Topic AreaKeynote talks [All Keynote Talks in Paraninfo]K1K2K3K4Edward LeamerMonday, 9:00-10:00Measures of Model Ambiguity for Autoregressive ForecastingGreg AllenbyTuesday, 9:00-10:00Structuring Limited-Information Data for Marketing ForecastsHenrik MadsenTuesday, 14:30-15:30State-of-the-art in Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power GenerationAdrian RafteryWednesday, 9:00-10:00Probabilistic Population Projections with Migration UncertaintyFeatured Speakers [All Featured Talks in Paraninfo]F1F2F2Todd ClarkMonday, 14:30-15:30Time-Varying Volatility and Macroeconomic ForecastingJosé DuatoTuesday, 10:15-11:15Speeding up the execution of numerical computations and simulationsRobert FildesWednesday, 12:00-13:00Research in PracticeForecasting in Practice Track [All FPT Talks in Rector Ernest Lluch]Chair and Organizer: Len Tashman, Editor in Chief, ForesightFPT1 Aris SyntetosMonday, 10:15-11:15Forecasting and Inventory Control: Mind the GapFPT2 Christian SchäferMonday, 12:00-13:00Challenges in Strategic Pharmaceutical ForecastingFPT3 Bram DesmetMonday, 15:40-16:40Forecasting and Supply Chain PerformanceFPT4 Greg ParlierMonday, 17:00-18:00Demand Planning for Military OperationsFPT5 Dilek OnkalTuesday, 10:15-11:15Trust in ForecastingFPT6 Stephan KolassaTuesday, 12:00-13:00Simplicity in ForecastingFPT7 Daniel BarrettTuesday, 15:40-16:40Demand Planning: Lessons from LEGOFPT8 Eric StellwagenTuesday, 17:00-18:00Beyond Exponential Smoothing: How to Proceed when Extrapolation Doesn’t WorkFPT9 Nikolaos KourentzesWednesday, 12:00-13:00Forecasting Temporal HierarchiesRegular tedInvitedContributedContributedInvitedForecasting applicationsApplied forecasting methodsLearning forecasting methodsApplications in Engineering and FinanceForecasting ApplicationsForecasting Methods and Applications 2Forecasting, Uncertainty and g and other Bayesian methodsBayesian methods 2Bayesian Methods 111Infantes, Mon, 15:40-16:40Biblioteca, Tue, 17:00-18:00Pedro Salinas 1, Tue, 10:15-11:35Pedro Salinas 2, Tue, 12:00-13:20Infantes, Wed, 12:00-13:20Santo Mauro, Wed, 12:00-13:20Pedro Salinas 2, Wed, 12:00-13:20Santo Mauro, Tue, 17:00-18:00Pedro Salinas 1, Tue, 17:00-18:00Infantes, Tue, 15:40-16:40
ISF 2016 PROGRAMBusiness CycleContributedInvitedInvitedInvitedBusiness CycleForecasting turning pointsBusiness cycle analysis 2Business cycle analysis 1ClimateInvitedInvitedInvitedClimate modeling and forecasting IThe role of forecasting in climate changeClimate modeling and forecasting IISanto Mauro, Mon, 12:00-13:20Biblioteca, Mon, 15:40-16:40Parainfo, Tue, 17:00-18:00Parainfo, Tue, 15:40-16:40Biblioteca, Tue, 12:00-13:20Parainfo, Tue, 12:00-13:20Biblioteca, Wed, 12:00-13:20Combination ForecastsContributedForecast combination 1ContributedForecast combination 3DemandContributedContributedBiblioteca, Tue, 10:15-11:35Santo Mauro, Tue, 15:40-16:40Demand-supply forecastingDemand ForecastingSanto Mauro, Mon, 12:00-13:20Pedro Salinas 2, Mon, 17:00-18:00Economic FinanceInvitedInflationPedro Salinas 1, Mon, 10:15-11:35InvitedMultivariate time series models in economicsand financeBiblioteca, Mon, 12:00-13:20ContributedForecasting inflationInfantes, Mon, 12:00-13:20InvitedEarly warningsSanto Mauro, Mon, 15:40-16:40InvitedForecasting using Common FeaturesBringas, Mon, 17:00-18:00InvitedRisk forecastingBiblioteca, Mon, 17:00-18:00ContributedForecasting in economics and societyInfantes, Mon, 17:00-18:00InvitedExpectations and Uncertainty in Survey ForecastsBringas, Tue, 12:00-13:20ContributedEconomics and FinanceComedor de Infantes, Tue, 12:00-13:20ContributedFinancial forecastingComedor de Infantes, Tue, 15:40-16:40ContributedPrices and inflationPedro Salinas 2, Tue, 15:40-16:40EconometricsInvitedMacroeconometrics and ributedContributedContributedEnergy Forecasting 1Infantes, Mon, 10:15-11:35Load forecasting: research progress and challengesBringas, Mon, 12:00-13:20Energy pricesPedro Salinas 1, Mon, 15:40-16:40Energy Forecasting 2Pedro Salinas 1, Mon, 17:00-18:00Energy Forecasting 4Bringas, Tue, 17:00-18:00Energy Forecasting 3Bringas, Tue, 10:15-11:35Infantes, Tue, tributedForecast Evaluation 1Forecast Evaluation 2Forecast Evaluation 3Sources of forecasting uncertaintyForecast EvaluationForecasting PerformanceComedor de Infantes, Mon, 10:15-11:35Parainfo, Mon, 15:40-16:40Santo Mauro, Mon, 17:00-18:00Infantes, Tue, 17:00-18:00Biblioteca, Tue, 15:40-16:40Santo Mauro, Wed, 12:00-13:20Predictability in financial marketsFinancial forecastingSanto Mauro, Mon, 10:15-11:35Pedro Salinas 2, Tue, 17:00-18:00GovernmentInvitedFiscal forecasting when fiscal policies are uncertainHealthContributedHealth ForecastingBringas, Mon, 15:40-16:40Biblioteca, Mon, 12:00-13:2012
ISF 2016 PROGRAMJudgementalInvitedContributedJudgemental ForecastingJudgemental Forecasting and disagreementBringas, Mon, 10:15-11:35Bringas, Mon, 12:00-13:20MacroeconomicsInvitedMacroeconomic Uncertainty and ForecastingParainfo, Mon, 12:00-13:20ContributedMacro ForecastingComedor de Infantes, Mon, asting Methods 1Signal Extraction 2Forecasting methods 2Forecasting with big dataForecasting Methods and Applications 1Forecasting methods with applicationsDensity forecastingNowcastingInvitedInvitedNowcasting and Forecasting 1Big data, nowcasting and forecastingDemographicsInvitedDemographic Forecasting in Diverse WorldPolicyInvitedThe role of forecasts in policyParainfo, Wed, 12:00-13:20PredictionContributedContributedSignal extraction 1Forecast combination 2Parainfo, Mon, 10:15-11:35Infantes, Tue, 12:00-13:20SeasonalityInvitedInvitedSeasonal Adjustment 1Seasonal Adjustment 2Pedro Salinas 2, Mon, 12:00-13:20Pedro Salinas 1, Wed, 12:00-13:20TourismContributedForecasting in tourism and sportsTime SeriesContributedContributedContributedTime SeriesInfantes, Mon, 12:00-13:20Forecasting methods in economics and financeInfantes, Wed, 12:00-13:20Time series and econometricsComedor de Infantes, Wed, edContributedRecent advances in distributional forecastingBiblioteca, Mon, 10:15-11:35Data for Forecasting in EducationPedro Salinas 1, Mon, 12:00-13:20Forecasting in industryComedor de Infantes, Mon, 12:00-13:20Forecasting SystemsComedor de Infantes, Tue, 17:00-18:00Forecasting in PracticeBringas, Tue, 15:40-16:40Pedro Salinas 2, Mon, 10:15-11:35Pedro Salinas 2, Mon, 15:40-16:40Comedor de Infantes, Mon, 17:00-18:00Santo Mauro, Tue, 10:15-11:35Pedro Salinas 1, Tue, 12:00-13:20Pedro Salinas 1, Tue, 15:40-16:40Bringas, Wed, 12:00-13:20Parainfo, Mon, 17:00-18:00Biblioteca, Wed, 12:00-13:20Santo Mauro, Tue, 12:00-13:20Bringas, Wed, 12:00-13:2013
ISF 2016 PROGRAMABSTRACTSThe IIF will publish electronic proceedings of this symposium (ISSN 1997-4124).Please submit your paper or presentation at forecasters.org/ISF.14
ISF 2016 PROGRAMMonday, 20 June8:45 – 10:00Keynote Session I (Paraninfo)Chairperson: Antonio Garcia-Ferrer, Universidad Autonoma de MadridEdward LeamerChauncey J. Medberry Professor of Management, Professor of Economics,Professor of Statistics, and Director of the UCLA/Anderson Business ForecastProject, USAProfessor Leamer received a B.A. degree in mathematics from PrincetonUniversity and a Ph.D. degree in economics and an M.A. degree inmathematics from the University of Michigan. After serving as Assistant andAssociate Professor at Harvard University, he joined the University ofCalifornia at Los Angeles in 1975 as Professor of Economics and served asChair from 1983 to 1987. In 1990 he moved to the Anderson Graduate School of Management andwas appointed to the Chauncey J. Medberry Chair. Professor Leamer is a Fellow of the AmericanAcademy of Arts and Sciences, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society. In 2014 he won the awardfor “Outstanding Antitrust Litigation Achievement in Economics.” awarded annually by the AmericanAntitrust Institute.Arnold Zellner Memorial Keynote Address: Measures of Model Ambiguity for AutoregressiveForecastingMeasures of statistical uncertainty presume certain or probabilistic knowledge regarding the time seriesmodel or mixture of models that generates the data, but actual forecasting usually begins with anexploratory phase in which the model is discovered. Forecasts are typically less accurate than the finalmodel promises because both model uncertainty and model ambiguity are ignored sources ofinaccuracy.10:15 – 11:15 Forecasting Practitioner Track 1 (Rector Ernest Lluch)Aris Syntetos, Chaired Professor in Operational Research and OperationsManagement, Cardiff UniversityForecasting and Inventory Control: Mind the GapDemand forecasters often assume that forecasting is an end in itself. Conversely,inventory planners often assume no preceding stages of computation, i.e. thatdemand and its parameters are known. However: i) demand forecasts are merelyinputs into a stock control model; ii) demand parameters (typically the mean and variance) are notknown but rather they have to be estimated. The performance of the whole system can be judged onlyon the basis of the resulting inventory investments and the service levels we offer to our customers. Inthis presentation, the interactions between forecasting and stock control are discussed and commonshortfalls, resulting from a lack of appreciation of such interactions, are demonstrated through practicalexamples for both fast and slow moving products, as well as cases where judgemental adjustmentsoccur. We then present an assessment of the extent to which the lack of integration between forecastingand stock control can be harmful. We close with research based suggestions for addressing the gapunder concern, and we emphasise the importance of this issue for any practical inventory forecastingapplication.15
ISF 2016 PROGRAM10:15 - 11:35 Energy Forecasting 1 (Infantes)Chair: Jonathan Farland, DNV GLModelling of extreme non-winter peak electricity demand: An application to South African dataCaston Sigauke, University of VendaIn this paper we present an application of both xed and time varying thresholds in the modelling ofextreme non-winter peak electricity demand using South African data for the period 2007 to 2013. It isduring the non-winter period that Eskom, South Africa's power utility company usually carries out itsmaintenance of power plants. Extreme peak loads together with high unplanned and planned outagesusually cause disruptions to the power plants' maintenance programmes during this period. If notproperly managed this may result in negative economic impacts as electricity is one of the majordrivers of any economy. Initially the data is made stationary by using a nonlinear detrending model.We then obtain an optimum xed threshold using extremal mixture models and threshold stability plotsafter which we decluster the exceedances and t the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to clustermaxima. Empirical results show that the developed modelling approach provides a good t of the GPDto cluster maxima. Most of the cluster maxima during the sampling period, years 2007 to 2013, areexperienced in January, April and August. This modelling approach helps in the planning ofmaintenance programmes of South Africa's power plants.Technology Foresight Scenarios for Solar Photovoltaic (Pv) In IndiaDeepak Singh, Jawaharlal Nehru University; Eugen Panaitescu, Northeastern University; PranavDesai, Jawaharlal Nehru University; Marc Meyer, Northeastern University; Latika Menon,Northeastern UniversityIndia is a rising economic power and with a large population its energy hunger translates exponentialdemand trajectories. A lot has been talked and written about the potential role of abundant solar energythrough Solar Photovoltaics (SPV) in quenching India’s energy hunger. This research can be broadlydivided into two segments. In the first segment an attempt is been made to explore (SPV technologies,actors and their policy objectives/actions) the Indian energy technology innovations system (ETIS). Inthe second segment an attempt is made through a primary survey to capture the space for absorption forvarious SPV technologies in the urban and rural areas in India. The scope of the work is for bothenergy security and adoption of appropriate SPV technologies to address climate change policy ofIndia. Methodology: Based on technology foresight analysis combining both qualitative andquantitative tools. This comprises of literature review, consumer survey, SPV technological assessmentthrough expert interview, iterative Delphi rounds for consensus building. Data and Analysis: Primarydata was collected from the consumers through a questionnaire, apart from secondary data availablefrom various ministries. Results: Futures scenario are projected in the from of a priority matrix whichcan be used by policy makers to enhance the space of SPV in India’s ETIS in short, medium and longterm futures.Analysis of Electricity Demand and Price patterns of the United States Electricity SectorSuman Gautam, DNV GL; Robert D. Weaver, The Pennsylvania State UniversityThis paper uses extreme value theory (EVT), a widely used concept in the financial market, to analyzedemand and price patterns and to predict future extreme events in the United States electricity market.We create a panel dataset using publicly available hourly demand and electricity marginal cost(lambda
36th International Symposium on Forecasting in Santander, Spain, a magnificent city in the northern region of Cantabria. This is the second time that the Symposium takes place in the Magdalena Palace, a majestic site hosting once more a truly international gathering of academic and industry forecasters.
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