Advancing US-ROK Cooperation On Nuclear Energy

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Atlantic CouncilAtlantic CouncilGLOBAL ENERGY CENTERGLOBAL ENERGY CENTERAdvancingUS-ROKCooperationon NuclearEnergyBy Stephen S. Greene

Atlantic CouncilGLOBAL ENERGY CENTERAtlantic CouncilGLOBAL ENERGY CENTERThe Global Energy Center promotes energy security by workingalongside government, industry, civil society, and public stakeholdersto devise pragmatic solutions to the geopolitical, sustainability, andeconomic challenges of the changing global energy landscape.Cover: The Shin Kori Number 4 reactor of state-run utility KoreaElectric Power Corporation (KEPCO) is seen in Ulsan, South Korea.Picture taken September 3, 2013. REUTERS/Lee Jae-WonThis report is written and published in accordance with the AtlanticCouncil Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solelyresponsible for its analysis and recommendations. The AtlanticCouncil and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarilyendorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions.Atlantic Council1030 15th Street NW, 12th FloorWashington, DC 20005For more information, please visitwww.AtlanticCouncil.org.ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-152-9March 2021This report was designed by Donald Partyka.This work was supported by the KoreaAtomic Energy Research Institute.AdvancingUS-ROKCooperationon NuclearEnergyBy Stephen S. Greene

ADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYTABLE OF CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2INTRODUCTION: US-ROK CIVIL NUCLEAR COOPERATION 3STATE OF THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED STATES 4Implications of the US Election 7STATE OF THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA 9US-ROK CIVIL NUCLEAR COOPERATION 11Existing Frameworks for Cooperation 11Opportunities for Cooperation 13Bilateral Trade 13Advanced Nuclear Technology 15Research and Development 16Collaboration in Third Countries 18Challenges to Cooperation 20CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 231

ADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYEXECUTIVE SUMMARYINTRODUCTION: US-ROK CIVILNUCLEAR COOPERATIONTChe United States and the Republic of Korea(ROK) are longstanding civil nuclear partners, with the potential to intensify theircollaboration, especially as global marketsfor nuclear energy expand. However, both the USand South Korean domestic nuclear industries arefacing challenges that are unique to each country. Inthe US, an ageing reactor fleet is struggling to remainonline in the face of the rapid growth of renewablegenerating capacity and historically low natural gasprices. Although nuclear power provided 30 percentof South Korea’s nuclear power in 2016, South KoreanPresident Moon Jae-in took office in 2017 having run acampaign that emphasized planned reductions in therole of nuclear energy.However, there is reason to anticipate revitalization ineach country’s respective nuclear industry, which willonly be strengthened by increased bilateral cooperation. The US government has taken a renewed interest in nuclear innovation, which has been expressedin bipartisan legislation that provides funding fordemonstrating advanced reactors and streamlinesthe regulatory process. The US has also taken stepsto shore up its civil nuclear export program throughreauthorizing the US Export-Import (Ex-Im) Bankand lifting the US International Development FinanceCorporation (DFC) ban on nuclear project finance. Atthe same time, the ROK-led consortium that is building the Barakah project in the United Arab Emirates(UAE) successfully brought the first of four reactorsonline in 2020, which will likely be a selling point forfuture international projects.To overcome their challenges and capitalize on theirsuccesses, the US and ROK should seek opportunities for collaboration in the following areas: bilateraltrade in which US suppliers provide components andservices to projects in South Korea, and ROK firmssupply components to the United States; a key subsetof bilateral trade supporting the demonstration anddeployment of advanced nuclear technology; cooperation in research and development to jointly pursue goals in new nuclear technologies; and collaboration in third countries, in which US and South Koreanentities work together to deliver projects that deliverimproved value to the host country through collaboration and bring meaningful value to suppliers in bothcountries. To make collaboration along these linesmore effective, both countries should consider the following policy recommendations: Commercial and government entities in the US andROK should identify opportunities for joint participation in third-country projects, especially with aneye toward advanced reactor projects.Both countries should invest in export financingso that they can secure the long-term geopoliticalrelationships that accompany the sale of nuclearenergy technologies.ooperation between the United States andthe ROK on civil nuclear energy began inthe earliest years of nuclear power generation. The United States and South Koreafirst signed a Nuclear Cooperation Agreement onthe Non-Military Uses of Nuclear Energy in 1956, andthe first nuclear power plant in the ROK, Kori 1, was aWestinghouse unit that began operating in 1978.1Today, that history of cooperation takes on even moreimportance. With nations around the world increasing their demands for energy, and the world focusedon the challenge of decarbonization, global interest in nuclear power is expanding in many countries,even as the nuclear industry faces challenges in somegeographies where it has historically been strong. Forexample, nuclear generation plays a key role in theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) 2020 scenariosthat achieve carbon emission objectives; in the case ofachieving net-zero emissions by 2050, primary energydemand from nuclear power increases by 35 percent.2Furthermore, the relationships that the United Statesand South Korea will build around the world in thecontext of civil nuclear power extend into the realmof geopolitics, and can be very long lasting, since theexport of nuclear technology is the start of a century-long relationship that includes security and nonproliferation, training, regulatory support, and ongoingservices and supplies.3 Russia and China are also pursuing these openings, using the tools of state-owned,vertically integrated enterprises, but without US discipline on nonproliferation and safety.4 Therefore, it is allthe more important that the United States and SouthKorea work together on international civil nuclearmatters, both to counter the influence of Russia andChina and to overcome the challenges that the UnitedStates and South Korea both face in their domesticnuclear industries.The US and ROK governments should pursuecooperation on civil nuclear research, including thepotential for cost-sharing on the US Versatile TestReactor (VTR).The nuclear energy industries in both countries should increase commercial cooperation onadvanced reactors in order to strengthen the supply chain for initial deployment.ROK nuclear firms should restore opportunitiesfor US firms to participate in the ROK’s domesticnuclear energy infrastructure.1Jeffrey C. Crater and George David Banks, “The U.S.-Republic of Korea Nuclear Relationship—an Indispensable Alliance,”American Council for Capital Formation, December 2016, S.-ROKReport-FINAL.pdf; “Nuclear Power in South Korea,” World Nuclear Association, last updated November 2020, ry-profiles/countries-o-s/south-korea.aspx.2 “World Energy Outlook 2020,” International Energy Agency, October 2020, 20.3 “Leading on SMRs,” Nuclear Innovation Alliance, October 2017, smrs/.4 Restoring America's Competitive Nuclear Energy Advantage: A Strategy to Assure U.S. National Security, US Department ofEnergy, 20Advantage 1.pdf.23

ADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYSTATE OF THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRYIN THE UNITED STATESDespite a renewed focus on decarbonizing theelectricity sector, US nuclear power—whichin 2019 provided 20 percent of US electricgeneration and 55 percent of its carbon-freeelectric generation—is in decline.5 Since 2013, morethan 8,400 megawatts (MW) of nuclear generationhave retired prematurely, and another 8,300 MWare projected to close by 2025, according to publicannouncements. A further 13,800 MW of potentialclosures were avoided through state policy actions.6Construction of new generation, which seemed promising prior to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident,has fizzled. Two new reactors at the Vogtle nuclearpower plant in Georgia are being completed, but theyare many years delayed, and will cost almost twicethe initial estimate.7 The abandoned construction oftwo new reactors at the VC Summer plant in SouthCarolina led to the demise of SCANA Corp, the formerparent of South Carolina Electric & Gas Company.8US nuclear power is being pressed by several factorsthat are particular to US electric markets, including therapid growth of natural gas and renewable generating capacity, historically low natural gas prices drivenby shale gas production, and the specific structuresof energy markets governed by independent systemoperators (ISOs). US natural gas prices for electricgeneration averaged 2.50 per thousand cubic feetin the twelve months through July 2020, resulting inan equivalent fuel cost component for modern natural gas combined cycle generation of less than 17per megawatt hour.9 Furthermore, because fuel represents more than 80 percent of the operating costof generation from gas-fired units, increased variablerenewable generation has less of an impact on gasfired generators than on nuclear generation.10 In 2018,the Union of Concerned Scientists concluded that 35percent of US nuclear power plants, representing 22percent of US nuclear capacity, were “at risk for earlyclosure or slated to retire.”11 Exelon Generation, whichoperates the largest US nuclear fleet, has said that itexpects to retire two generating stations in Illinois infall 2021, and that two more Illinois plants are at risk.12US nuclear suppliers have been severely weakened,and the US industry has relied on multinational companies and investors for manufacturing and financialsupport. Westinghouse Electric Company, which hadbeen constructing the Vogtle and VC Summer reactors, was forced into bankruptcy, was purchased by5 “Net Generation, United States, All Sectors, Monthly,” US Energy Information a/browser/.6 “Closing Panel—Christopher Crane, Exelon,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, September 25, stopher-crane-exelon.FIGURE 1US Natural Gas and Marginal Fuel Cost for Power /Mcf /Mcf (12-mo. avg.) /MWh fuel cost for power (12-mo. avg.) /Mcf /MWh 6 30 5 25 4 20 3 15 2 10 1 5 0JAN ’18 0APR ’18JUL ’18OCT ’18JAN ’19APR ’19JUL ’19OCT ’19JAN ’20APR ’20JUL ’20SOURCE: US ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATIONNOTE: Natural gas price is the US average natural gas for electric generation (https://www.eia.gov/opendata/qb.php?sdid NG.N3045US3.M). Fuel cost for power incorporates the “benchmark” heat rate of 7,000 Britishthermal units (BTU) per kilowatt hour (kWh) used in the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) daily pricereporting (see kfield Business Partners in 2018, and is primarilyfocused on providing services.13 The United States haslost its ability to forge the pressure vessels for largelight water reactors (LWRs); Doosan Heavy Industriesand Construction (Doosan) fabricated the pressurevessels and steam generators for the WestinghouseAP1000 reactors at the Vogtle units in Georgia.14General Electric (GE) reorganized its nuclear businessinto an alliance with Hitachi, now GE Hitachi NuclearEnergy (GE Hitachi or GEH).15 The United States onceprovided the entire world outside the former SovietUnion and its allies with nuclear fuel, but no longerhas any enrichment production using US technology.The only enrichment production located in the UnitedStates is UUSA, a subsidiary of Urenco, which is ownedby European governments and government-supported entities and uses European technology.16The decline of the US nuclear industry has consequences for national security.17 Reductions in manufacturing and service work for civilian nuclear powerplace a greater burden on the military to maintainsupport for businesses with capabilities and qualifications that meet nuclear standards. It is more difficult to attract military personnel to work in nuclearfields if there are fewer civilian nuclear jobs, or if thosejobs are less attractive because of a poor outlook for7 Sonal Patel, “How the Vogtle Nuclear Expansion’s Costs Escalated,” Power, September 24, ar-expansions-costs-escalated/.8 Alex Crees, “The Failed V.C. Summer Nuclear Project: A Timeline,” Choose Energy, December 4, led-v-c-summer-nuclear-project-timeline/.9 US Energy Information Administration data and author calculations; incorporates EIA’s “benchmark” heat rate of 7,000 BTU/kWh.10 Zeke Hausfather, “Mapped: The US Nuclear Power Plants ‘at Risk of Shutting Down,’” CarbonBrief, July 24, lear-power-plants-at-risk-of-shutting-down.11 “The Nuclear Power Dilemma: Declining Profits, Plant Closures, and the Threat of Rising Carbon Emissions,” Union ofConcerned Scientists, October 9, 2018, emma.12 David Roeder, “In ‘Power Play,’ Exelon Vows to Close Byron and Dresden Nuclear Plants,” Chicago Sun-Times, August 27,2020, nts;Aaron Larson, “Exelon Makes Plans to Retire Byron and Dresden Nuclear Plants in 2021,” Power, August 27, .413 “Brookfield Business Partners Completes Acquisition of Westinghouse Electric Company,” Brookfield, press release,August 1, 2018, 08-01-2018-211711827; “Our Vision and Values,”Westinghouse, nd-values.14 Matt Bowen, Strengthening Nuclear Energy Cooperation between the United States and Its Allies, Columbia School ofInternational and Public Affairs, July 28, 2020, n-united-states-and-its-allies.15 “About Us,” GE Hitachi, hitachi.16 “UUSA: The National Enrichment Facility,” Urenco, https://www.urenco.com/global-operations/uusa.17 Atlantic Council Task Force on US Nuclear Energy Leadership, US Nuclear Energy Leadership: Innovation and the StrategicGlobal Challenge, Atlantic Council, May 20, 2019, tion-and-the-strategic-global-challenge-2/.5

ADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYthe industry.18 Nuclear exports enable US leadershipworldwide in nuclear safety and nonproliferation.19to develop advanced nuclear technologies being pursued in the United States and Canada.23In contrast to the specter of retirements and the poornear-term outlook for new nuclear power plants,operations at existing power plants have been stellar.Improvements in refueling and other aspects of operations have increased capacity factors (the percentageof output available throughout the year) from 70 percent in the early 1990s to an average of more than 93percent in 2019, which translates proportionally intoincreased generation output.20 In addition, the industry has been able to achieve power uprates at existingplants of more than 2,000 MW since 2010 and almost4,000 MW since 2001.21Two developers have begun the process of obtaining license approvals from the US Nuclear RegulatoryCommission (NRC). NuScale Power is workingwith Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems(UAMPS) to construct a modular 720-MW project ona Department of Energy (DOE) site in Idaho.24 TheDOE recently approved a cost-share award of up to 1.4 billion to support the construction of this project.25 NuScale received its Final Safety EvaluationReport from the NRC in August 2020, clearing theway for UAMPS to pursue a construction and operating license.26 Oklo Power is seeking to build a 1.5-MWmicro nuclear reactor at an Idaho National Laboratorysite; in June 2020, the NRC accepted its applicationfor a combined license review.27Furthermore, there is increasing optimism around theprospects for several advanced nuclear power technologies being developed throughout the UnitedStates. Recently, many innovative technology startups,as well as established nuclear leaders, have begun topursue approaches to nuclear power that are very different from the current generation of gigawatt-sizedreactors, with their attendant long construction timesand significant risk of cost overruns. These technologies use a variety of technical approaches, but allfocus on modular construction, factory fabrication,shorter construction times, and passive safety.22 As ofOctober 2019, there were more than seventy projectsThe US government has recently taken several steps tosupport advanced reactor development. The NuclearEnergy Innovation Capabilities Act of 2017 (NEICA)and the Nuclear Energy Innovation and ModernizationAct (NEIMA) received bipartisan support and becamelaw in 2018 and 2019, respectively, providing researchsupport for, and reinforcing regulatory changes tofacilitate, advanced nuclear development. 28 TheNuclear Energy Leadership Act (NELA) was proposed, and passed by the Senate, as an amendmentto the National Defense Authorization Act for FiscalYear 2021, and it provided the basis for the portionsof the Energy Act of 2020 that address advancednuclear energy. 29 It would facilitate funding foradvanced nuclear development and enable the federal government to purchase power from advancednuclear projects.30 The Nuclear Energy Research andDevelopment Act (NERDA) has been introduced in theHouse. Moving forward on this legislation potentiallyenables President Biden to obtain bipartisan supportfor an element of his climate agenda. The proposedAmerican Nuclear Infrastructure Act of 2020 (ANIA)would support advanced nuclear development and, inparticular, remove restrictions on foreign funding fornuclear investments.31Congress has funded advanced reactor demonstrations, appropriating 230 million in the fiscal year (FY)2020 budget.32 With this funding, DOE is embarkingon an Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program withthe intent of demonstrating two reactors so that theycan be operational within the next five to seven years.Under this program, the DOE has awarded 80 millioneach to TerraPower and X-energy to build demonstration plants.33 In addition, the Department of Defensehas contracted with three teams to begin design workon mobile nuclear reactor prototypes to supportdefense logistics, with the expectation that at leastone will be built out.34In addition, Congress and the administration havestrengthened support for US exports of nucleargoods and services. In 2019, with bipartisan support,Congress reauthorized the US Ex-Im for an additionalseven years, representing the longest reauthorizationin the agency’s history.35 Additionally, in 2020, the USDFC changed its Environmental and Social Policy andProcedures (ESPP) to enable the support of nuclearpower projects.36 This change was one of the key recommendations of the United States Nuclear FuelWorking Group established in 2019.37The 2020 US elections could introduce changes inobjectives, policies, and implementation that couldhamper or reverse some of the support that nuclearpower has recently received. However, the recognitionthat nuclear power is likely to be needed as a component of the effort to decarbonize energy supply, in theUnited States and worldwide, makes that less likely.38IMPLICATIONS OF THE US ELECTIONPresident Biden’s energy plan commits to a carbon-pollution-free power sector by 2035.39 Toachieve that, the plan recognizes the need tocontinue to leverage the carbon-free energy providedby existing nuclear power plants. His energy and climate plans both acknowledge the need for innovation to address the challenge of climate change and,29 "Advanced Reactors in the Energy Act of 2020 and the New Administration," Nuclear Innovation Alliance, January 18 Robert F. Ichord, Jr., and Bart Oosterveld, The Value of the US Nuclear Power Complex to National Security, Atlantic Council,October 2019, pdf.19 Jane Nakano, “The Changing Geopolitics of Nuclear Energy: A Look at the United States, Russia, and China,” Center forStrategic and International Studies, March 12, 2020, .20 “U.S. Nuclear Industry Capacity Factors,” Nuclear Energy Industry, rindustry-capacity-factors.21 “U.S. Nuclear Industry Yearly Power Updates and Capacity Additions,” Nuclear Energy 22 See, e.g., “Advanced Nuclear Energy: Need, Characteristics, Projected Costs, and Opportunities,” Clean Air Task Force, April2018, anced Nuclear Energy.pdf.23 John Milko, Jackie Kempfer, and Todd Allen, “2019 Advanced Nuclear Map,” Third Way, October 17, 2019, lear-map.24 “UAMPS Carbon Free Power Project,” Fluor, https://www.fluor.com/projects/carbon-free-power. UAMPS is a joint-actiongovernmental agency that provides energy services to forty-six community-owned power-system members locatedthroughout the intermountain western states.25 Larry Pearl, “DOE Approves Up to 1.4B to Test 12-Module NuScale Reactor,” Utility Dive, October 19, 5/.26 “NuScale Power Makes History as the First Ever Small Modular Reactor to Receive U.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionDesign Approval,” NuScale, press release, August 28, 2020, lt.aspx.30 A portion of NELA was passed by the Senate as an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year2021 (NDAA, S 4049); see “US Senate Passes Nuclear Energy Leadership Act,” World Nuclear News, July 27, 2020, ate-passes-Nuclear-Energy-Leadership-Act; Jackie Kempfer, “Raising the NextGeneration of Nuclear: A Road Map for Deployment,” Third Way, October 17, 2019, ration-of-nuclear-a-road-map-for-deployment.31 “Barrasso Releases Draft Legislation to Revitalize America’s Nuclear Infrastructure,” US Senate Committee on Environmentand Public Works,” press release, July 29, 2020, america-s-nuclear-infrastructure.32 “U.S. Department of Energy Launches 230 Million Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program,” US Department of EnergyOffice of Nuclear Energy, press release, May 14, 2020, ration-program.33 “US DOE Selects Advanced Reactor Designs for Demonstration Plants,” World Nuclear News, October 14, 2020, -selects-advanced-reactor-designs-for-demons.34 “DOD Awards Contracts for Development of a Mobile Microreactor,” US Department of Defense, March 9, 2020, nt-of-a-mobilemicroreactor/source/GovDelivery/.35 “President Donald J. Trump Signs Historic Seven-Year Long-Term Reauthorization of EXIM,” Export-Import Bank of the UnitedStates, press release, December 20, 2019, n-exim-0.36 “DFC Modernizes Nuclear Energy Policy,” US Internal Development Finance Corporation, July 23, 2020, nizes-nuclear-energy-policy.37 Restoring America's Competitive Nuclear Energy Advantage.27 Sonal Patel, “NRC Accepts Crucial Advanced Nuclear Applications from Centrus, Oklo,” Power, June 25, 8 Josh Siegel, “Biden Pledges to Eliminate Carbon from Power Plants by 2035 as Part of 2 Trillion Clean Energy Plan,” July 14,2020, -by-2035as-part-of-2-trillion-clean-energy-plan.28 Nuclear Energy Innovation Capabilities Act of 2017, S.97 (2017), e-bill/97;Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act, S.512 (2017), e-bill/512.39 Biden for President, “The Biden Plan to Build a Modern, Sustainable Infrastructure and an Equitable Clean Energy Future,”accessed December 16, 2020, https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/.67

ADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYin particular, to recognize the need to pursue the“future of nuclear energy” to achieve climate objectives, and the opportunity presented by advancedreactors.40 It is relevant that while the Trump administration has made significant strides in support ofadvanced reactors, such as through the AdvancedReactor Demonstration Program, the Department ofEnergy’s initial steps on this effort were begun duringthe Barack Obama administration, when Biden wasvice president.41Furthermore, Biden’s climate plan recognizes thevalue of exporting clean energy technologies, forboth his climate objectives and US economic growth.In addition to the bipartisan legislation on nuclearenergy mentioned in the previous section, moving forward on more recent pieces of legislation—especiallyADVANCING US-ROK COOPERATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGYNERDA and ANIA—may enable Biden to obtain bipartisan support for an element of his climate agenda,especially if a Republican-controlled Senate limits hisplans for broader climate legislation.Biden also appears likely to seek international cooperation in pursuit of his objectives on energy and climate. His record and the foreign policy team he hasannounced both indicate that he will aim to achievepolicy objectives through engagement with US allies.Additionally, his appointment of former Secretary ofState John Kerry as his administration’s special envoyfor climate indicates that he views climate policy anddiplomacy as inextricably linked. Such an approachis likely to enhance the opportunities for cooperationdescribed in this paper.STATE OF THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRYIN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREANuclear power provided 30 percent ofSouth Korea’s electricity in 2016, and itsnuclear-generating capacity has continuedto grow. 42 South Korea was the world’seighth-largest energy consumer in 2017, and 87percent of that consumption was powered by fossilfuels, almost entirely imported.43 Given its dependenceon imported energy, South Korea’s substantial nuclear-generating sector is an important counterweight.Shin Kori 3 and 4, the first domestic units to use KoreaElectric Power Corporation's (KEPCO) APR-1400design, were added to the grid in 2016 and 2019.44 By2019, South Korea was the fifth-largest nuclear powergenerator in the world.45However, the growth of nuclear generation, includingthe completion of the Shin Kori units, belies a fundamental change in the trajectory of nuclear power inSouth Korea that began with events in 2011 and 2012.In 2011, the tsunami in Japan, and the resulting failureof the Fukushima nuclear power plant, caused a reassessment of nuclear power around the world, including in South Korea.46 In 2012, the South Korean nuclearindustry’s credibility was damaged as a result of scandals including forged safety certificates for parts insome South Korean nuclear plants, which led to extensive investigations.47FIGURE 2Share of total annual electricity generation fromnuclear, top five nuclear power producers (2019)nuclearUnited Statesall otherUnited States20%FranceNumber of operation

the ROK on civil nuclear energy began in the earliest years of nuclear power gener-ation. The United States and South Korea first signed a Nuclear Cooperation Agreement on the Non-Military Uses of Nuclear Energy in 1956, and the first nuclear power plant in the ROK, Kori 1, was a Westinghouse unit that began operating in 1978. 1

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