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BRIEFING NOTERegional Analysis ofYouth DemographicsTANZANIAKey messages1 Tanzania's population is projected to increase from53.9 million in 2015 to 186.9 million by 2065. Youngpeople aged 15-34 are projected to increase from 17.8million to 62.3 million by 2065.2065. For instance, demand for primary school placescould increase from an estimated 10 million in 2015 tobetween 18 and 27 million by 2065. For Tanzania to benefit from its youthful populationto reap a demographic dividend, it must intensifyprogrammes to reduce child mortality, significantly lowerfertility levels, invest in developing its human capital andequitably generate and distribute decent jobs to improveliving standards. As a result of persistent high fertility total dependencyis high with about 92 young and old-age dependents(0-14 years and 65 years) for every 100 people ofworking age (15-64 years) thus putting severe pressureon state and household resources. The demand for basic services such as schooling,housing and healthcare will increase significantly byContextTanzania’s long-term development plan, Vision 2025,seeks to transform the country from a least developedto a semi-industrialised middle-income country with amodernised economy and high quality human capitalby 2025.2 Despite robust economic growth in thepast decade, the country remains low income, withhigh poverty levels. Efforts to address these economicchallenges and achieve the development goals ofVision 2025 are undermined by high populationgrowth rate, which stands at 3.1% per annum.3 Rapidfertility decline can have positive economic benefitsby increasing the ratio of the working age peoplerelative to dependants, thus enabling the country toharness the demographic dividend; a temporaryeconomic benefit created by a significant increasein the ratio of working-age adults relative to youngdependents.4Currently, Tanzania’s population is very youthful.Children below 15 years comprise about 44% ofthe population and an additional 19% are youthbetween 15-24 years.5 As a result, the populationage-sex structure has a large base (Figure 1).Tanzania defines youth as those aged between 15and 35 years, (same as the East African Communitydefinition), while the United Nation’s definition is15-24 years. In 2012, youth (15-35 years) constituted1Figure 1: Projected age-sex distribution, Tanzania, 2016(Source: Population and Housing Census, 2016 Projections)MaleFemale80 25-2920-2415-1910-145-90-4963about 35% of the population.3 In absolute numbers,the youth aged 15-34 were 17.8 million in 2015 andare projected to increase to 62 million under the UNMedium variant or 47.7 million under Low variantscenarios by 2065.5Tanzania’s high fertility rate (at 5.2 children perwoman on average)6 has declined by only onechild over a 25-year period while the under-fiveDisclaimer: This document is an output from a project funded by the UK Department for International Development(DFID) through the Research for Evidence Division (RED) for the benefit of developing countries. However, the viewsexpressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of, or endorsed by DFID, which can accept noresponsibility for such views or information or for any reliance placed on them.2United Republic of Tanzania, 1998. Tanzania Development Vision 2025.3National Bureau of Statistics. (2013). 2012 Population and Housing Census (PHC). Population Distribution by Age and Sex4Bloom, D., David Canning, & Sevilla, J. (2003). The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic0369child mortality rate has fallen by more than 50%,from 141 deaths per 1,000 live births to 67 per1,000 during the same period. Consequently,Tanzania’s population increased from 12.3 millionin 1967 to 43.6 million persons by 2012.3 It isprojected to increase to 138 million in 2050 underthe UN Medium variant scenario.5 Not surprisingly,Tanzania’s dependency ratio is very high. In 2012,Consequences of Population Change, by, RAND MR-1274-WFHF/DLPF/RF, 2002, 100 pp., ISBN: 0-8330-2926-6. SantaMonica, CA, USA5United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The2017 Revision. Accessed in August 20176Ministry of Health, Community Development, Gender, Elderly and Children (MoHCDGEC) [Tanzania Mainland], Ministryof Health (MoH) [Zanzibar], National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS), andICF. (2016). Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey (TDHS-MIS) 2015-16. Dar es Salaam,Tanzania, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: MoHCDGEC, MoH, NBS, OCGS, and ICF.Briefing Note - Tanzania1

there were 92 dependants (0-14 years and65 ) for every 100 people of working age(15-64) or if we use the alternative dependencyratio calculation, 143 dependents (01-19 yearsand 65 ) per 100 people (20-64 years).5 Thecountry’s low level of female education, lowstatus of women, preference for large familiesand poor access to contraception among ruraland young women are the main factors thatcontribute to high fertility.7This briefing note summarises a review ofliterature and policies on youth demographicsand implications from our scenario modellingof the short, medium and long-term projectionsof the youth population in Tanzania, andtheir demand for services. From the literaturereview and participatory workshops on thedemographic dividend in the four East AfricaCommunity countries (EAC), we have identifiedfour major domains for youth development:health including access to sexual andreproductive health services; education and skillsdevelopment - including information technologyand communication; employment; and migrationand urbanisation. Gender is a cross-cuttingissue for youth development. This briefing notefocuses on these domains, while acknowledgingthat there are other important domains in youthdevelopment that should be addressed. It alsodraws from the country’s demographic dividendreport (2017) for which the African Institutefor Development Policy (AFIDEP) providedtechnical leadership.8Tanzania’s YouthDemographics andProspects for aDemographic DividendEminent scholars have defined the “youth bulge”as a temporary demographic phenomenonwhich occurs when child mortality and fertilityrates fall rapidly such that the previous cohort ofbirths is larger than subsequent cohorts.9 As thelarge birth cohorts move into the working ages(15-64 years), we get a bulge in the populationage-structure and an increase in the ratio ofthe working age population relative to youngdependents. Another benefit can arise becausefewer dependents implies that resources thatwould have paid for education, health, andbasic services for large numbers of children canbe re-invested for longer-term economic growthand capital development. Examples of thistemporary “youth bulge” were seen in countriessuch as South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia inthe 1980s and it is thought that this phenomenoncontributed to their economic growth bybetween 25-33%.10, 11, 12 Many African countriescurrently have youthful population age-structuresas portrayed in Figure1. Such an age-structure,not to be confused with a youth bulge, has anunfavourable ratio of working-age populationto dependents and countries are unlikely tobenefit economically unless there are significantinvestments to rapidly reduce fertility. With afertility rate of 5.2 children per woman, Tanzaniadoes not have a youth bulge, and is unlikely tohave one soon, even with the projected fertilitydecline to 3.4 by 2050 and 2.9 by 2065 underUN’s Medium variant scenario. Therefore, thecurrent high dependency burden will continuefor the next 50 years, unless there are seriousinvestments in policies to accelerate fertilitydecline.Demographers use the inverse of thedependency ratio as a proxy for the supportratio (ratio of effective producers to consumers),in effect assuming that everyone between15-64 years (or 20-64 years) is contributing tohousehold income and the rest are consumersrather than producers. The rate of change of thesupport ratio can be used to show the timingwhen the window of opportunity for harnessingthe demographic dividend opens and closes.While the rate of change of the theoreticalsupport ratio is positive, the window ofopportunity to reap the demographic dividend isopen. However, once the rate of change of thesupport turns negative, the dividend becomesnegative, implying that the demographic changeacts as a brake on economic growth rather thanan impetus for economic growth.13Figure 2: Demographic Dividend Windows of Opportunity: Rate of change in the support ratio for four East Africancountries and Sub-Saharan Africa0.150Rate of change in theoretical support Agwanda A. and Haidari Amani. (2014). Population growth, structure and momentum in Tanzania. THDR 2014:Background Paper No. 7 ESRF Discussion Paper 61. r-Tanzania, UDSM, AFIDEP, 2017. Prospects and challenges of harnessing demographic dividend inTanzania. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania9Justin Yifu Lin. (2012). Youth Bulge: A Demographic Dividend or a Demographic Bomb in DevelopingCountries? n-developing-countries.10Lee R., and A. Mason, principal authors and editors. 2011. Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A2Briefing Note - TanzaniaTanzaniaSub-Saharan AfricaGlobal Perspective. Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar Publishing11Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. TheWorld Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.12Bloom DE, Humair S, Rosenberg L, Sevilla JP, & Trussell J. (2014). Capturing the demographic dividend:Source, magnitude and realization. 2014. Pp 23-39 in A Soucat and M Ncube (Eds). One Billion People OneBillion Opportunities: Building Human Capital in Africa. Tunis: African Development Bank.13Oosthuizen MJ. Bonus or mirage? South Africa’s demographic dividend. The Journal of the Economics ofAgeing. 2015/04/01/ 2015;5(Supplement C):14-22.

Figure 2 shows that the window of opportunityfor Tanzania and other countries in the EAC andsub-Saharan Africais open from now until 2100,when the ratio of effective producers relative toconsumers will become unfavourable. It shouldbe emphasised that this window of opportunitycan close without a country reaping a sizeabledemographic dividend if the youth do not havethe relevant skills for the labour market or thecountry is unable to create enough quality jobsfor the workers.In realisation of the potential of its youthdemographics, the country has developedpolicies to address challenges faced by youth,including unemployment, poverty, HIV/AIDS,environmental degradation, drug abuse andvulnerability to communicable and noncommunicable diseases. The 2007 NationalYouth Development Policy (NYDP), aims toaddress youth social and economic problems.14Critics of the NYDP however argue that thepolicy was developed too quickly withoutconsultation on the realities on the ground.Furthermore, the policy is criticised for lackingclarity regarding the main implementer sincethe proposal to form a National Youth Councilhas not been implemented.15 The 2nd five-yearNational Development Plan (NDP) focuseson addressing the challenges experienced byyoung people by ensuring a broad-based andinclusive economic growth through increasedproductive capacities and job creation.16Health status and access to sexualand reproductive health servicesAccording to the Institute of Health Metrics andEvaluation (IHME), HIV/AIDS is the leadingcause of death in Tanzania, followed closely bylower respiratory tract infections and diarrhoealdiseases. A recent study showed that HIV/AIDS, violence and injuries were the leadingcause of deaths among young people inseveral African countries, including Tanzania.17Access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH)information and services among youth remainspoor. According to the 2015-16 TanzaniaDemographic and Health Survey (TDHS),more than 30% of sexually active unmarriedyoung women (15-24 years) had an unmetneed for contraception (women with unmetneed are those who are want to stop or delaychildbearing but are not using any methodof contraception), compared to 17% amongsexually active unmarried women 25-34 yearsand 22% among unmarried women 35-49years. Not surprisingly, about 27% of girls aged15-19 had started childbearing, with 132 birthsfor every 1,000 girls aged 15-19 in 2015.6 Thehigh childbearing at young ages is partly due tothe high prevalence of child marriages; in 2015,about 30% of women 20-24 years reported tohave been married by 18 years. These issuescurtail the educational achievement of youngpeople especially girls, and consequently theirpotential economic productivity in the future.Although the population policy and the NYDPhighlight the need to provide quality youthfriendly SRH services for men and women inboth rural and urban areas by removing alllegal, regulatory, structural, and attitudinalbarriers to accessing such services, the highunmet need for contraception among youthimplies that the policies are not effective.Tanzania participated in the CDC/WHOsponsored Global School-based StudentHealth Survey (2008) which showed high levelsof alcohol experimentation among youth 13-15years, risky sexual behaviours and violence.18Although sexuality education is integrated insecondary school curriculum, pupils’ sourceof sexuality knowledge is largely from sourcesother than school.19 Drugs and substance use arealso reported to be high among the youth aged15-24, with a very high ever use prevalence of82% among university students and 66% amongfemale sex workers.20Education and skills developmentA well-educated and highly skilled labourforce is essential to propel Tanzania to asemi-industrialised middle-income economyas envisioned in the country’s Vision 2025.Quality education is a key pillar of Vision 2025and is seen as an enabler to responding tothe country’s development challenges andpositioning it to be effectively competitiveregionally and globally. Tanzania needs toinvest heavily to develop its human capital.At present, a sizeable proportion of youthare inadequately skilled with many facingunemployment, a combination of deflatingfactors for accelerated economic growth.16Overall, the net enrolment rate for earlychildhood development (pre-school) wasestimated at 46.7% in 2016; 74% for primaryschool and 24.7% for secondary school.Gross enrolment rate for tertiary education14United Republic of Tanzania (2007). National Youth Development Policy – December 2007. Dar-es- Salaam,Tanzania: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Youth Development http://www.youthpolicy.org/national/Tanzania 2007 National Youth Policy.pdf Accessed on 23rd/August/201715Chambi Chachage (2008), Does the new youth policy reflect youth demands?16United Republic of Tanzania, 2016. National Five-Year Development Plan 2016/17 – 2020/21. Ministry ofFinance and Planning.17Patton, George C et al.2016. Our future: a Lancet commission on adolescent health and wellbeing. The Lancet,Volume 387 , Issue 10036 , 2423 – 247818United Republic of Tanzania (Ministry of Health and Social Welfare), CDC, and World Health Organization,(2008). Tanzania Global School-based Student Health Survey Report. Dar es Salaam.19Magreth Bilinga & Nkuba Mabula, (2014). Teaching Sexuality Education in Primary Schools in Tanzania:Challenges and Implications. Journal of Education and Practice Vol.5, No.27.20Francis, J. M., Grosskurth, H., Changalucha, J., Kapiga, S. H. & Weiss, H. A. (2014). Systematic reviewwas only 5.2% in 2014.21 Although genderparity has been achieved at primary and lowersecondary levels, girls lag far behind their malecounterparts in access to senior secondary andtertiary level education. Developing qualitybasic and tertiary education and providingtechnical and vocational training opportunitiesfor developing globally competitive humancapital and for attracting foreign directinvestments that contribute to creation of jobs forthe youth. The NYDP emphasises quality basiceducation for all young men and women anddeveloping a demand-driven vocational andtechnical education system. However, it hasbeen observed that there is a mismatch betweenthe skills that graduates have to offer and theneeds of the labour market.16Employment and job creationThe country has experienced impressiveeconomic growth in the last decade, withannual growth averaging 7% between 2007and 2016, and GPD per capita increasing fromUSD 563 to USD 979 over the same period.22Despite this growth, Tanzania faces seriousdevelopment challenges, with about 28% of thepopulation living in poverty,23 and 10.3% beingunemployed.21, 24 The burden of unemploymentis skewed towards the youth (15-24 years) andwomen, with unemployment rates of 13.7%and 12.3%, respectively, in 2014, against anunemployment rate among men of 8.2%.21Even among those employed, about 11.8% areunderemployed,25 again with young peopleage 15-24 bearing the heaviest burden (15.2%among males; 12.8% among women). The highlevels of underemployment are explained inpart by the fact that a majority of Tanzanianswork in the agricultural sector for subsistence.The 2014 Integrated Labour Force Survey(ILFS) showed that about two-thirds (65.8%) ofemployed youth (15-35 years) were engagedin agriculture, forestry and fishing. The reportalso showed that 82.3% of the employed youthwere in vulnerable26 employment, thus unlikelyto have access to benefits or social protectionprogrammes.24 Another key problem givingrise to youth unemployment is lack of equitableaccess to available jobs due to corruption,nepotism and other discriminatory practices. Inaddition to creating a favourable environmentfor individuals to create their own enterprisesin the formal economy, Tanzania’s EmploymentPolicy (2008) advocates for equal employmentand meta-analysis: prevalence of alcohol use among young people in eastern Africa. Tropical medicine &international health, 19, 476-488.21National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) [Tanzania]. (2016). Tanzania National Panel Survey Report (NPS) - Wave4, 2014 - 2015. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: NBS.22National Bureau of Statistics. (2017). National Accounts of Tanzania 2007 – 2016.23Poverty rate refers to the national poverty line which estimates the population living with less than 1 perday. It’s based on the minimum expenditure to intake of minimum calories for survival but also non-foodexpenditure for subsistence.24National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) [Tanzania] (2014). Tanzania Integrated Labour Force Survey 2014, Dar esSalaam, Tanzania: NBS.25Labour underemployment refers to working part-time when people are available to work full-time, implyingthat people are not earning sufficient wages and are thus likely to be among the working poor.26Vulnerable employment rate of youth measures the share of young own-account workers and contributingfamily workers in total youth employmentBriefing Note - Tanzania3

opportunities for males and females, promotingequity and equality in employment opportunitiesand increased access to labour marketinformation. This policy however does notaddress current unemployment challengesamong the young people. With the growingnumbers of youth joining the workforce, thecountry will face a serious unemploymentchallenge.Migration and UrbanisationThe rapid increase in urban population haslargely been driven by natural increase (i.e. thedifference between births and deaths) withinurban areas, which accounts for about 75%of the urban growth in Africa, compared toabout 50% in Asia.27 Although the contributionof migration to urban growth is low in Africacompared to other developing regions, there isa distinct pattern of rural–urban migration in thecontinent28 characterised by significant mobilityof young adults who navigate the perceivedworsening rural economic conditions and theunpredictable livelihood opportunities. Tanzaniais urbanising very rapidly, at 5.4% in 2012,and although only 29.6% lived in urban areasin 2012,3 the urban population is projectedto increase to 53% by 2050. Historically,urbanisation has offered important opportunitiesfor economic and social development, acting asan engine of economic growth. Yet in Tanzania,as in much of Africa, cities and other urbancentres are struggling to provide an enablingenvironment for innovation, rapid economicgrowth, and job creation. Many urban residentslack basic social services, including affordablehousing. The 2016 UN Habitat report showedthat about half of Tanzania’s urban population(50.7%) lived in slum-like conditions withoutpotable water and decent sanitation.29 Althoughthis is an improvement from the 2005 levelof 66.4%, it still implies the need for seriousplanning and investments to improve theliving conditions of half the urban population.Tanzania’s Land Use Policy (1997) and HumanSettlement Development Policy (2000) highlightthe management of urban development as anational priority. However, the policy documentsare out-dated and they do not make particularreference to the youth and their needs.Future Implications ofYouth Demographics inTanzaniaFertility is the most influential determinant ofpopulation change in Tanzania. A reduction intotal fertility levels and delayed childbearingbeyond adolescent and early adult ages (25 )has a long-term impact in reducing the youthas well as total population of Tanzania. Dueto the high population momentum created bydecades of high fertility, the population willcontinue growing for decades to come evenif fertility was to decline to replacement levelof 2.1 immediately. As Figure 3 below shows,Tanzania’s youth population will increase to62.3 million by 2065 under the UN Mediumvariant scenario. However, if the Low variant– which assumes rapid fertility decline to 3.0in 2065 – is followed, the population of youthwill increase to 47.7 million people by 2065(Figure 4).Figure 3: Tanzania-Projected youth population, 2015-2065, UN MediumVariant Scenario (in thousands)Using UN models to generate populationprojections for 2030, 2050, and 2065, weassessed the future demand for schools, familyplanning services, and jobs. The UN Mediumvariant scenario assumes that increases incontraceptive use will result in fertility patternssimilar to the experience of other countries thathave gone through the demographic transition.The UN Low variant scenario, assumes thatfor most of the projection period, fertility ishalf a birth lower than the Medium variantscenario. The UN models make allowancefor high mortality due to HIV/AIDS in highprevalence countries and migration in countrieswhere there is significant people movement(see UN methodology for fuller discussion].30We also analysed an Accelerated model,where we assumed that Tanzania acceleratedprogrammes for fertility decline so that totalfertility reached replacement level (2.1) by2065. The Accelerated scenario and Lowvariant model are almost identical up to 2050in terms of the projected populations.Future demand for school placesThe official primary school age range forTanzania is 7-13 years, while the officialsecondary school age range is 14-17 years.Figure 5 shows that under the UN Mediumvariant population projections, the primaryschool age population is expected to increasefrom an estimated 10 million children in 2015to 26.7 million children by 2065. The numberswill rise at a much slower pace under theAccelerated model with the population ofprimary school age children increasing to 18.2million by 2065. The secondary school ageFigure 4: Tanzania- Projected youth population, 2015-2065, UN Low VariantScenario (in 201515-19203020-24205025-29206530-3427BChen N, Valente P, Zlotnik H. (1998). What do we know about recent trends in urbanization? In: BilsborrowRE, ed. Migration, Urbanization, and Development: New Directions and Issues. Norwell, MA: UNFPA–KluwerAcademic; 1998: 59–88.28Beguy D, Bocquier P, Zulu E. (2010). Circular migration patterns and determinants in Nairobi slumsettlements. Demographic Research. 2010; 23(20): 549–586.4Briefing Note - ABITAT. (2016). Urbanization and development: Emerging Futures. World cities report, 2016. Nairobi,Kenya30United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World PopulationProspects: The 2015 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections,Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.242

population under the UN Medium variantprojection is expected to increase from anestimated 4.8 million in 2015 to 14.2 millionby 2065 while under the Accelerated model,there will be 9.7 million children by 2065 (seeFigure 6).The expected significant increases in the schoolage population at both primary and secondaryschool level in Tanzania means that the countrywill have to devote significant resources toexpand school infrastructure, hire more teachingand management staff and pursue innovativeeducation and training ventures such as onlinedigital learning. This is the only way Tanzaniawill ensure the success of quality and relevanteducation and training in the short-term sincefree basic education policies have beenextended to secondary school level since2015. It is worth noting that in 2014/15, thenet enrolment in secondary school was only25% while it was 74% for primary school. If theenrolment rates are to increase to the currentaverage levels of upper-middle-incomecountries, then the primary school net enrolmentrates should increase to 95% while thesecondary school net enrolment should increaseto 79%. Such increases will also require anexpansion of access to tertiary education andtechnical and vocational training to absorbthe young people who will graduate from theexpanded secondary school stream.Demand for contraception amongfemale youthUsing the UN Medium variant populationprojections for 2015-2065, we estimated thefuture total demand for contraception amongsexually active female youth (married andunmarried) in Tanzania. Total demand includeswomen using contraception and those whohave unmet need for contraception. For the2015 period, we use the 2014/15 TanzaniaDHS total demand for contraception for ages15-34 years. For the 2030 projections, whenTanzania’s total fertility rate (TFR) will be about4.3 we use the average distribution by agebased on the current demand levels for lowand middle income countries with a TFR ofbetween 3.8-4.5; for 2050, when Tanzania’sTFR is projected to be around 3.4, we use thedistribution for countries with TFR of around3.1-3.4; and for 2065 we use the distribution forcountries with TFR of 2.7-3.0 since Tanzania’sTFR is projected to be about 2.98. The resultsare shown in Figure 7 and reflect significantincrease in the demand for contraception foryouth of all age-groups.The Guttmacher Institute, in their 2014 ‘AddingIt Up’ publication estimate that in low incomecountries, the cost of providing adequatecontraception per woman is around 10, andthat each dollar invested in contraceptionreduces the costs of meeting the healthcareas a result of unintended pregnancies,unsafe abortion, HIV in pregnancy care, andunplanned births by 1.47. Assuming constantcosts between 2014 and 2065, the cost and20502065Figure 5: Estimated number of primary school age population (age 7-13), Tanzania (in thousands)Accelerated model18,152UN Medium variant26,668Accelerated model17,1222030UN Medium variant22,094Accelerated model14,2972015UN Medium variant15,091Accelerated model10,329UN Medium 0030,00020502065Figure 6: Estimated number of secondary school age population (age 14-17), Tanzania (in thousands)Accelerated model9,679UN Medium variant14,190Accelerated model9,4672030UN Medium variant11,412Accelerated model7,4572015UN Medium variant7,553Accelerated model4,762UN Medium variant4,76205,00010,00015,000ThousandsBriefing Note - Tanzania5

Figure 7: Number of Tanzanian youth, 15-34 years in need of contraception, 2015-2065 (in 0-24201525-292030205030-342065Figure 8: Cost of providing contraception to Tanzanian female youth, 15-34 years (US thousands) and benefit due topregnancies and births averted 250,000 206,728 200,000 153,972 150,000 140,631 104,743 100,000 83,036 53,541 50,000 56,487 36,423 0201520302050Costbenefit of providing contraception to femaleyouth is shown in Figure 8.Youth population not in education,employment or trainingThe share of the young people not in education,employment or training (NEET) provides abroad measure of the untapped potential ofyoung people who could contribute to nationaldevelopment through work. The InternationalLabour Organisation (ILO) points out that thisgroup is also important since they are neitherimproving their future employability throughinvestments in skills nor gaining experiencethrough employment. As a result, the group isparticularly at risk of both labour market andsocial exclusion.The 2014 ILFS shows that the 15-35 age groupNEET was 17% and almost twice as high forfemales (21%) than for males (12%). Assumingthat these NEET rates remain constant overthe next forty years, we find that the absolute6Briefing Note - Tanzania2065Benefitnumbers of the 15-35 years NEET are expectedto rise alarmingly (Table 1). From a baselineof 3 million in 2015, the numbers could riseto 5 million, 7.4 million and 8.3 million in2030, 2050 and 2065 respectively underthe Accelerated model. The number of NEETin this age group could rise as high as 10.7million by 2065 under the UN Mediumvariant scenario. Apart from these sociallyexcluded young people being at a high riskof falling into the poverty trap, they are als

ICF. (2016). Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey (TDHS-MIS) 2015-16. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: MoHCDGEC, MoH, NBS, OCGS, and ICF. Tanzania's population is projected to increase from 53.9 million in 2015 to 186.9 million by 2065. Young people aged 15-34 are projected to increase .

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