The Future Of Wealth Management In Switzerland - Deloitte
The future of wealth managementin SwitzerlandStrategy in times of uncertainty
Table of contentPrefaceExecutive summaryPreface 3Executive summary 4Wealth management at a crossroads 5The biggest uncertainties 11Scenarios for wealth management in 2030 14Creating a future-proof strategy 19Five things private banks should do today 23Authors and key contacts 26Private banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyPrefaceThe Swiss wealth management industry faces challenging times,with flattening or even decreasing profitability levels.The underlying causes remain and new drivers of change areadding to the mix that will shape the wealth managementindustry of the future. The industry continues to consolidateand many banks are deciding to exit the business.This study has been carried out in collaboration with 25executives of leading Swiss private banks, collectively responsiblefor over CHF 2tn in assets under management.We are confident that it provides a valuable guide to Swissprivate bank executives about the future and its implications,and how to formulate a winning role in a successful Swiss wealthmanagement industry.Our objective with this study is to help contribute to the Swisswealth management industry changing path to a growing andprosperous future.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030We present a picture of what the industry in Switzerland mightlook like in 2030, and the implications for banks, and we makerecommendations about what private banks should be doingtoday. We also explain how dealing with an uncertain future willrequire new ways of strategy definition and execution, and adifferent organisational mind-set.Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and referencesJean-François LagasséManaging PartnerFinancial Services IndustryGlobal Wealth Management LeaderPatrik SpillerPartnerSwiss Wealth Management Industryand Strategy & Analytics Leader3
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyExecutive summarySwiss wealth management executives are facing challenging timesand the level of uncertainty is reaching new heights; for example,platform businesses seem to be getting ready to enter the market.These challenges and uncertainties create strong headwinds forSwiss private banks. Profitability levels are below expectations inan expanding market, and potential growth opportunities in thetraditional offshore business are limited. As a result there is continuingconsolidation in the industry. The underlying problems will not bealleviated any time soon: on the contrary, new drivers of change willadd further to the mix that shapes the wealth management industryof the future.To gain a better understanding of the key uncertainties facingwealth management in Switzerland, we conducted a deep diveresearch into relevant trends, and explored them jointly with 25executives of leading Swiss private banks, collectively responsiblefor over CHF2tn in assets under management. Here we report thefindings of this work and present key recommendations for Swissprivate banks.Our research identified five key uncertainties: the client interactionmodel; differentiated value creation by wealth management;control of the value chain; ownership of client relationships; andthe ability to monetise and use data.For each of these scenarios, this report sets out the implicationsfor clients, incumbents and new competitors as well as potentialstrategic moves of players.Dealing with uncertain futures requires acceptance of thesecircumstances and new ways of strategy definition. Wealthmanagement executives should follow five steps to deal with thisuncertainty: develop a shared long-term view; determine the futureposition; stress test the strategic choices; select focus initiatives forthe near-term; and create momentum.Irrespective of their long–term view and future position, executivesshould adopt five recommendations now to prepare for the future:develop strategic discipline; learn to partner in ecosystems; focusrelentlessly on client experience; empower relationship managers;and increase organisational adaptability.These actions will result in organisations that are much morenimble and able to deal with the emerging world of the futureand take a proactive approach to shaping the new face of wealthmanagement in Switzerland.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and referencesIn the context of these uncertainties, four scenarios for wealthmanagement unfold that describe different yet plausiblefuture worlds:1. A world of family office ecosystems2. Open wealth management marketplaces3. Tightly controlled digital islands4. A world of prestigious ‘club feeling’ private banks4
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyWealth management at a crossroadsSwiss wealth management executives face a number of challenges and need to takedecisions today in anticipation of an uncertain future. The challenges might not benew. Yet the level of uncertainty has reached new heights, and the shift in wealthmanagement has already made its mark, as manifested in the weak performance ofmany Swiss financial institutions.The profitability of Swiss banks has not kept up with the growing market potential. While the wealth ofhigh net worth individuals globally has increased by 44 percent between 2013 and 2018 and is expectedto continue to grow at six to eight percent annually, pre-tax profit margins of Swiss private banksdecreased by 17 percent (Figure 1). Due to continuing pressure on revenues and margins, banks shouldnot expect a reversal of this trend without radical cost reduction measures or innovative offerings.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFigure 1. Profitability of Swiss private banks vs. global wealth210HNWI’s wealth190Five things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and 013201420152016201720182023Indexed HNWI global wealth evolution ( USD1m; 2013 100)Indexed average profit margin of Swiss private banks (2013 100)Source: Monitor Deloitte analysis based on Credit Suisse and annual reportsThe analysis in this chapter is based on all Swiss banks active in wealth management excluding cantonal and Raiffeisen banks for which data forreferenced years was publicly available.15
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintySmall and medium-size players have been struggling the mostto adjust to the new environment. Large players were able tocapture 82 percent of all net new money flows between 2013and 2018 compared to 15 and three percent respectively formedium-size and small banks. In contrast, medium-size andsmall banks together experienced 68 percent of outflows in thesame period (Figure 3). Overall the private banks in our samplegenerated positive net new money flows of CHF755bn andnegative flows of CHF94bn over the period.Figure 2. Allocation of money in-/outflows per bank sizeover 2013-2018PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesLargeMediumSmallScenarios for wealth management in 203082%Creating a future-proof strategyInflowsCHF 755bn15%3%10%OutflowsCHF94bnFive things private banks should do today32%58%Authors, key contacts and referencesSource: Monitor Deloitte analysis based on annual reports6
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyThe challenging industry dynamics have resulted in an activeM&A market and industry consolidation has re-shaped thecompetitive landscape. The consolidation is mainly driven byforeign-owned banks exiting the market as non-core to theirbusiness, and smaller banks looking to merge to gain scale.Recent examples include the acquisition of Notenstein La RochePrivate Bank by Vontobel, the merger of Banque Heritage andSallfort Privatbank, and the sale of Bank Hapoalim’s Swiss andLuxembourg businesses to Bank J. Safra Sarasin. The ongoingconsolidation of the industry can be demonstrated by lookingat Swiss banks with a large wealth management business: thesedecreased in number from 148 in 2013 to 127 in 2018, a threepercent reduction per year as a result of mergers, acquisitionsand business closures.Figure 3. Number of banks registered in Switzerlandwith wealth management services-3% CAGR148144140136131127PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references201320142015201620172018Source: Monitor Deloitte analysis based on Swiss National Bank7
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintySeveral factors have contributed to the current challenges – and theyare not expected to go away soon. As a consequence of regulatoryinitiatives since the financial crisis, private banks have facedincreasing compliance costs as well as fee erosion due to increasedtransparency, the shift to passive investments and low interest rates,all aggravated by changing client preferences such as a trend toredomicile assets to onshore offerings. Also, non-traditional wealthmanagement players (e.g., asset managers, insurance companies)are able to attract a growing share of young clients who value digitalcapabilities over brand. Most of these factors are here to stay,questioning the traditional business model of private banks.Future growth might not come from the same markets as in thepast. International wealth management has been facing headwindsfor a few years. As a result, the cross-border business of Swiss bankshas decreased from 60 to 53 percent of assets under management,and internationally assets booked offshore fell from 7 to 5 percent.Only six of the largest geographical markets in 2022 are also growthleaders between 2018 and 2022 (see Table 1). Therefore privatebanks will need to decide whether to focus on large and maturemarkets or whether to seek growth opportunities in potentiallysmaller, more volatile and less sophisticated markets.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references8
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyLeaders by growth 2018-2022Leaders by size in 20221TurkeyUSA2RomaniaUnited Kingdom3Others Middle EastJapan4ColombiaFrance5United KingdomCanada6IsraelGermany7IndiaChina8ChinaOthers Asia tralia15Others Western EuropeOthers Western EuropePrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references9
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintySo what should private banks do today to prepare for an uncertainand challenging future? Together with executives from leadingprivate banks in Switzerland we set out to answer this question.We conducted a number of interviews with clients, regulatorsand banking professionals and discussed the findings with 25executives responsible for more than CHF2 trillion of assets undermanagement in a series of intense one-day workshops, to identifykey uncertainties and construct plausible scenarios of the future.All the scenarios we identified seem relevant and plausible, and it isdifficult to predict which one will prevail – it may be a combinationof the scenarios that actually materialises. However, the realpurpose of developing the scenarios was not to predict a definitefuture, but rather to suggest what to watch out for as we progresstoward 2030, and identify ‘non-regret’ moves to make today.In the following sections, we summarise the key findings of thisresearch, together with recommendations for private banks.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references10
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyThe biggest uncertaintiesStarting with more than 50 industry drivers, we identified six key clusters ofuncertainty – clusters of trends whose realisation remains highly uncertain, butwhose impact could be critical for the shape of the wealth management industryin 2030. For each key uncertainty we defined two plausible extreme outcomes.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Machine-centeredClient interaction modelHuman-centeredCreating a future-proof strategyNot differentiated vs.alternative playersValue creation by wealth managementSignificant differentiationFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and referencesClosely controlledControl of the value chainCompletedisintermediationOwnership of client relationshipsIncreasing use ofshared dataAbility to monetise dataOpenPrivate banks as centerpoint of ecosystemPredominantly use ofcaptive data11
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyClient interaction modelWhile new technologies have made possible significant efficiencygains in back office activities, their impact on client interactionsremains difficult to predict. While 59 percent of surveyed HNWIsprefer an in-person meeting with their relationship manager tomake important investment decisions, 67 percent of millennials saythey prefer robo advisory compared to 30 percent of GenerationX and baby boomers. Will digital-native millennials adapt theirexpectations as they accumulate wealth and face more difficultinvestment decisions, or will they remain comfortable interactingmainly with a machine or via digital channels?Control of the value chainWe believe that private banks of the future will be assembled –not built. The uncertainty nonetheless resides in the extent towhich private banks are able to control their own ‘assemblage’:will relationships with external providers remain controlled andmanaged, or will banks entertain a much more open relationshipwith their ecosystem? While 58 percent of recently-surveyed Swissbanks aspire to remain orchestrators of their ecosystem, it is clearthat only a few (if any) will be able to do so. And with the advent ofdistributed ledger technologies, to what extent will the traditionalbanking value chain remain relevant at all?Value creation by wealth managementEven activist investor par excellence Warren Buffett advisesinvestors to put 90 percent of their wealth in passive instrumentson a broad index and ten percent in short-term bonds. Indeed,in order to identify confidently portfolio managers who generatesuperior returns, we would need to observe their yearly returnsfor more than 100 years. So, to what extent will clients perceivethe services of a private bank as more value-adding than thoseof other providers such as asset managers, retail banks orchallengers? Will they succeed in attracting clients with valueadded services beyond investment management (e.g., financial,tax, and estate planning, or complex financing solutions)?Ownership of the client relationshipsAs ecosystems become more important, the ownership of clientrelationships may slowly shift away from private banks, withclient experience becoming the new loyalty. To make the point:45 percent of millennials would switch to alternative solutions insearch of the best option. And only 38 percent of HNWI clients inSwitzerland are very satisfied with their bank. For how long willfinancial stability, good reputation and the high-touch service bybanks’ relationship managers give private banks an edge overemerging alternative providers?PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references12
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyAbility to monetise dataBanks have recently started to appreciate the value of the clientdata they possess – yet, what should they do with it? 75 percentof consumers across continents said they are willing to share(sensitive) data in exchange for products or services they valueand a brand they trust. Indeed, the majority of surveyed bankswill leverage client data to enhance their products and services.However, they are reluctant to exchange data with third partieseven if this would enable them to personalise services further. Towhat extent and how quickly this might change depends on thewillingness of wealth management clients to grant access to theirpersonal data, and the ability of ecosystem players to protectprivacy. Will privacy and security concerns prevail overgreater convenience?OutlookWhile the wealth management executives in our workshopsidentified a number of uncertainties that might significantly impactwealth management in Switzerland, they were also optimistic thatprivate banks remain relevant to their core clients by focusing onwhat they really need. In this regard, identifying the uncertainties(and the certainties) is a first step towards developing a futureproof business. By combining these uncertainties and exploringtheir joint effect, different plausible scenarios of the future can beconstructed. In the following section we describe four of them.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references13
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyScenarios for wealth managementin 2030PrefaceJointly with the executives we chose the uncertainties with the largest impact andleast correlation as the basis for exploring the future of wealth management in 2030:control of the value chain, and the client interaction model. Given that each keyuncertainty could have two extreme outcomes, combining these extremes leads tothe definition of four scenarios. In developing the narrative of each scenario, we didnot ignore the remaining uncertainties, but factored them into our analysis.Executive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyClub feelingFamily office ecosystem Incumbent players tightly controlvalue chain Collaboration of specialized providers in anecosystem centered around client needs Players with strong brands offering hightouch premium services Tailored, family-office-like offerings Clients mainly served digitally bymonolithic ecosystemsthe value chain Bifurcation of industry: A few verylarge incumbent players dominating theirecosystem, and select small playersFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and referencesOpenControl ofClient interaction modelClosely controlledHuman-centered Digital first client interfaces andopen platforms with reduced switchingbarrier Speed, price and convenience aswinning factorsDigital islandsWealth management marketplaceMachine-centered14
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyFamily office ecosystemDescriptionOpen architecture simplifies collaboration and enables privatebanks to provide their clients with the best product experts,financial planners and tax experts from within their internal andexternal networks. Basic banking services, including custody,become a low-cost commodity that is sourced from the mostcost-efficient provider. Private banks exit parts of the value chainand focus on high-quality tailored advice, leveraging strongnetworks of internal and external experts. The competitionfor differentiation leads to family-office-like offerings, even forlower value clients. While clients are willing to pay for high-value,human-centred and holistic advice, client loyalty erodes if servicequality expectations are not met.What it means for .clients: Highly relevant and individual solutions for everyone Premium fees for high quality services.private banks: Re-invention of business models Focus on specific parts of the value chain Investments in connectivity and collaborationImplicationsOnly players that master the ecosystem (either as trustedadvisor, orchestrator, niche producer or infrastructure provider)will succeed in this scenario. The client interface will be wonby those who have the deepest understanding of client needs(across all wealth bands and life circumstances) beyondinvestment management. Value is generated by joint efforts ofspecialist providers to deliver solutions that fit. Seamless digitaland ‘offline’ integration of a broad range of services will be a keydifferentiator.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references challengers: Entry opportunity for lower-end “family offices” andintermediary type business models Market entry by asset managers as suppliers Competition for highly skilled wealth management talent15
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyWealth management marketplaceDescriptionDigital interfaces and open platforms enable clients to choosetheir wealth management services from various suppliersaccording to their specific needs and preferences, with very lowswitching costs. Excellent customer experience as well as pricingand performance of digital services are the key differentiatingfactors in this scenario, and many digital-native players suchas BigTechs successfully gain market share. Successful privatebanks re-invent themselves as modular integrators of services toreduce complexity for their clients, relying on services offered byother participants in the ecosystem.What it means for .clients: Low cost, low human interaction Large variety of outstanding digital service offerings tochoose from Low switching costs.private banks: Loss of control over clients and value chain State-of-the-art digital client experience as the keysuccess factor Integration into (digital) ecosystems critical for meaningfulservice offeringImplicationsThe open environment in this scenario allows new technologicallyadvanced players to enter the market successfully if they raiseclient experience to new heights. A few “marketplace” platformswill emerge that require incumbents to collaborate moreclosely with external parties via APIs and find their place in theresulting (digital) ecosystem(s). As client interactions take placeincreasingly via digital channels and are often automated, fewerbut more technologically-savvy client advisors are required.Success in 2030 will also be determined by players’ ability toinnovate continually to improve the convenience and speedof their services. This is also the only scenario where priceleadership constitutes a true differentiating factor.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references challengers: Low market entry barriers allow for easy access Opportunity for BigTechs to succeed in the wealthmanagement market by creating scalable platforms Short life for innovations16
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyDigital islandsDescriptionVirtual interfaces are the main channel for client interactions andthe delivery of standardised, yet sophisticated, products andservices. Private banks are able to respond to new competitionfrom BigTechs due to their clients’ lack of trust in tech players,in particular with respect to data sharing. The industryconsolidates progressively around the largest and financiallystrongest incumbents that invested heavily in technology earlyon. Superior digital client experience, scale and cost efficiencyare the primary factors for success. This leads to a small numberof closed ecosystems dominated by private banking giants, witha number of niche players serving one or several of them asspecialist providers. Usually, clients stick with one ecosystem,due to high switching costs.What it means for .clients: Limited human contact with providers Satisfied by offering and security of incumbents instead ofchoice from alternative players Stuck with one ecosystem due to limited inter-operabilityImplicationsIn this world, large and financially sound incumbents developtheir own monolithic ecosystems based on tightly controlled,integrated platforms. Their key activities evolve around offering asuperior client interface and guaranteeing the quality of servicesand data protection. Services are either provided by themselvesor by carefully selected ecosystem participants. Prudentialregulations, which aim at preventing the creation of institutionsthat are too big to fail, and regional protectionism allow severalecosystems to co-exist. In this scenario, large incumbents needto invest heavily in technology to become attractive platformsand not all of them will succeed. Smaller or medium–sizedplayers focus on specific products and services and maintain arelationship with one or several of the emerging ecosystems.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references.private banks: Largest, financially strong and most technology-savvyplayers dominate Efficiency gains necessary to finance enormous investmentsin technology, platforms and innovation Medium-sized players without state-of-the-art digital platformor top-notch products struggle challengers: Relatively high barriers to enter the market Existing customer base required to build wealth managementoffering on top (e.g., retail banks)17
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyClub feelingDescriptionIncumbent players exercise tight control over the entire valuechain, and interactions with clients are human-centred. Clientslook for high-quality offerings and superior services for whichthey are ready to pay a premium. Some incumbents establishthemselves as leading players that leverage their strong brandand differentiated services to remain ahead of the competition.Similar to a members-only club, these players retain clients byoffering unique experiences and a feeling of exclusivity. Topplayers command margins that can be higher than today, butthe industry also faces limited opportunities for cost reductioncompared to other scenarios, due to limited inter-operabilityacross the value chain and the human-centred service model.This scenario is vulnerable to shifting client preferences and theemergence of disruptive competitors.What it means for .clients: Highly personal service Premium fees for services from trusted and prestigious brands.private banks: Brand and reputation is everything High cost base to provide personalized offeringImplicationsIn this scenario, mainly established incumbents inheriting astrong brand and able to heavily invest in a clear USP will survive.As a result, newcomers – probably lacking one or both of thesecharacteristics – face difficulties entering the market. Disruptingplayers such as FinTechs or BigTechs are not a real threat: forincumbents, it is all about standing out from the current crowd.For private banks today, preparing for a “Club Feeling” world oftomorrow would require building a premium brand and investingin client retention via service quality, a differentiated offering andunique client experiences. Players with a lack of focus will sufferfrom a high cost base.PrefaceExecutive summaryPrivate banking at crossroadsThe biggest uncertaintiesScenarios for wealth management in 2030Creating a future-proof strategyFive things private banks should do todayAuthors, key contacts and references challengers: High barriers to entry Exclusive luxury brand to build on as a prerequisite Hiring of talented relationship managers from incumbents18
The future of wealth management in Switzerland Strategy in times of uncertaintyCreating a future-proof strategyExpressing uncertainty and scenarios about the future is only an initial step towardsdefining a future-proof strategy. A process leading to the development of a robuststrategy in such an environment looks as follows:1.2.3.4.5.synthesise a shared view of the long-term direction ofwealth management;determine what the business needs to looklike in the future in order to succeed;stress test where to play and how-to-win choices;identify two to three initiatives over the next six to twelvemonths that have the greatest potential to accelerateprogress toward that
Scenarios for wealth management in 2030 Authors, key contacts and references The Swiss wealth management industry faces challenging times, with flattening or even decreasing profitability levels. The underlying causes remain and new drivers of change are adding to the mix that will shape the wealth management industry of the future.
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1.2 The Scope of our Wealth Management Services 1.3 Components of Wealth Management 1.4 Process of Wealth Management 1.5 Need for Wealth Management 1.6 Expectation of Clients 1.7 Challenges to Wealth Management in India 1.8 Code of Ethics for Wealth Managers 1.9 Review Questions 1.1 Introduction to Wealth Management What is 'Wealth Management'?
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