White Paper Globalization 4.0: Shaping A New Global .

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White PaperGlobalization 4.0:Shaping a New GlobalArchitecture in the Age of theFourth Industrial RevolutionConsultation DraftJanuary 2019

Consultation DraftWorld Economic Forum91-93 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.: 41 (0)22 869 1212Fax: 41 (0)22 786 2744Email: contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org 2019 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication may bereproduced or transmitted in any form or by anymeans, including photocopying and recording, orby any information storage and retrieval system.

Consultation DraftContentsPreface4Introduction5Globalization 4.0 and its antecedents5Towards an Operating System Upgrade for Global Cooperationand Domestic Governance7General Design Parameters7Specific Architectural Innovations and Improvements9Trade and investment9Financial and monetary system12Global public goods and the environment14Technology16Cybersecurity20New social narrative: the future of work and human capital22Industry and corporate governance24Geopolitical and geoeconomic cooperation27Conclusion: Shaping a New Global Architecture27A Call for EngagementEndnotes2728Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution3

PrefaceRichard Samans,Managing Director,Head of Policy andInstitutional Impact,World EconomicForumAs the World Economic Forum’s communities gather for the Annual Meeting 2019, there is awidespread sense that international relations and the world economy are at a turning point. Thisis reflected in the theme of the meeting – Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Global Architecturein the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – which is explained in a recent opinion piece andforthcoming article in Foreign Affairs authored by the Forum’s Founder and Executive Chairman,Professor Klaus Schwab.1The essential thesis is that major shifts underway in technology, geopolitics, environment andsociety are combining to give birth to a new phase of globalization – Globalization 4.0 – whosetrajectory will depend in large measure on how well governance at multiple levels – governmental,corporate and international – adapts to these changes. Strengthening our governance architectureto ensure its effectiveness in this new era will require deeper engagement and heightenedimagination by all stakeholders, beginning with robust and sustained dialogue among them.This White Paper, which is being distributed as a consultation draft, is intended to help concretizethese discussions and place them in the systemic context. It seeks to raise their level of ambition,in part by spotlighting some of the most important practical opportunities available to strengthenthe world’s cooperative architecture in the form of existing initiatives and proposals that areworthy of wider consideration and support. The aim is to encourage everyone to respond to thecall for engagement inherent in the Annual Meeting’s theme by thinking about how they and theirorganizations could contribute concretely to the policy and enabling architecture improvementsneeded in this new era by supporting one or another of these initiatives or indeed by bringingothers to the table.The paper’s introductory section describes how the interplay of technological progress, businessstrategy and international economic policy shaped previous phases of globalization. Its secondsection argues that the transformations driving Globalization 4.0 will require an “operatingsystem upgrade” for global cooperation and domestic governance and provides a blueprint ofeight general design parameters for strengthening and adapting cooperative institutions andarrangements to this new context.The paper’s third section highlights many of the most important existing initiatives and proposalsthat are available for modernizing our cooperative architecture in line with these designspecifications, providing an actionable roadmap of practical opportunities for engagementby Annual Meeting participants and the international community at large. It presents thesepossibilities first in three traditional domains of global governance: trade, finance and global publicgoods, including particularly climate change and the environment; second, in the relatively newareas of technology and cybersecurity governance; third, in the two critical areas of domesticgovernance and institutional strength, workforce and human capital development as well ascorporate governance; and finally, in the area of geopolitical and geoeconomic cooperation.The paper’s content has been compiled through consultation with members of a number ofWorld Economic Forum communities, including many of its Global Future Councils, SystemInitiatives and Centres. It does not seek to be exhaustive or prescriptive. Nor does it representan institutional position of the Forum, its members or partners, or these communities andcentres. Thanks are due to all of those who have made suggestions, including the heads ofthe corresponding Forum Centres and Initiatives, as well as my colleagues Nicholas Davis andThomas Philbeck.Comments and suggestions on this consultation draft can be sent to G4.0@weforum.org. A finalversion incorporating ideas and suggestions arising during the Forum’s Annual Meeting will beissued thereafter.4Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Consultation DraftIntroductiongovernance at multiple levels – governmental, corporate andinternational – adapts to these changes. Modernizing ourgovernance architecture to make enhance its effectivenessin this new era will require wider engagement andheightened imagination by all stakeholders. Engagement indirect, open dialogue will be crucial, as will the imaginationto think systemically, which is to say beyond one’s ownshort‑term institutional considerations.A strengthened framework of global cooperation isneeded to accelerate progress on shared challenges andlessen tensions among and within countries. After theSecond World War, leaders worked together to developnew institutional structures and governance frameworksto help build a more stable and prosperous future. Theworld has changed dramatically since then, and inresponse to the vital challenges of the 21st century weneed to engage in such a process again.We must begin by understanding how profoundly thecontext for governance and cooperation is changingdue to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Economies,businesses, societies and politics are being transformedby technological advances in such areas as artificialintelligence and machine learning, the internet of things,autonomous vehicles, drones, precision medicine andgenomics, advanced materials, smart grids, robotics andbig data.This technological transformation is posing a fundamentalchallenge to the way economies and societies organizethemselves in domestic policy and how the internationalcommunity cooperates through institutions andarrangements. New policy models and cooperativearrangements are needed to help societies maximize thebenefits and mitigate the risk2 of these advances, whichare fuelling the wholesale disruption and recombination ofindustries; the dematerialization of value creation; a shiftin the nature of competition in domestic product, capitaland labour markets as well as countries’ internationaltrade and investment strategies; growing questions aboutcorporate and government stewardship of personal dataas they become ever more central to economic activityand the exercise of citizenship; and rising concern thatall of these changes could further exacerbate inequalityand generate worker and community dislocation at adisorderly pace and scale.This wave of technological disruption is coincidingand interacting with three other, equally epochal,transformations in the global economic and politicalcontext:–– An increasingly urgent set of ecological imperatives,including but not limited to global warming–– The growing multipolarity of international relations andplurilateralization of the world economy–– Rising social discontent within many countriesregarding the inequity of socioeconomic outcomesfrom economic growthThese four transformations are combining to give birth toa new phase of globalization – Globalization 4.0 – whosetrajectory will depend in large measure on how wellThat is the purpose of this year’s Annual Meeting of theWorld Economic Forum, whose theme is Globalization4.0: Shaping a New Global Architecture in the Age ofthe Fourth Industrial Revolution. This White Paper hasbeen prepared to help orient participants to the Meeting’stheme and intended call for engagement. It provides anoverview of some of the important weaknesses in theworld economy’s cooperative architecture that have beenexposed by the changes, described above, in its operatingcontext. And it spotlights some of the most promisingopportunities available to address these weaknesses,which are deserving of greater consideration andcommitment by government, business and other leadersin Davos and beyond.Globalization 4.0 and its antecedentsBroadly speaking, there have been three phasesof global economic integration in modern times.The first was the period leading up to 1914, whenimmigration and cross‑border capital and trade flowswere quite large even by contemporary standards,3but the global institutional architecture was extremelylimited. People were free to travel from one countryto another without passports; immigration policy waseffectively free of governmental limitation; and onlya handful of international economic agreements andinstitutions existed, e.g., International Telegraph Union(1865), Universal Postal Union (1874) and InternationalAssociation of Railway Congresses (1884).Globalization’s second phase was the period extendingfrom the Second World War to the late 1990s in whichthe post‑war international economic enabling architecturewas established (trade, financial and developmentinstitutions and agreements) and multinational corporationsgreatly expanded their operations across the globe,aided by not only policy liberalization but also improvedcommunications. By some measures, trade and capitalflows took nearly this long to reach the level of cross‑borderintegration attained just before the First World War.The third phase ran from the late 1990s until very recentlyand was characterized by the advent of the internet, theestablishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO)and the formal entry of China into the trading systemthrough its accession to that institution. There were alsocritical improvements in information and communicationsGlobalization 4.0: Shaping a New Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution5

Consultation Drafttechnology during these decades. Critical improvementsin information and communications technology as wellas financial risk management tools combined withcontinued trade and capital liberalization – particularlythrough regional free trade agreements and bilateralinvestment treaties – brought the integration of marketsand cross‑border expansion of value chains to a newplateau. Trade as a proportion of world GDP has risen byhalf since the mid‑1990s.4Globalization 4.0 is only now taking shape. However,Brexit, the Trump administration’s shifts in US policy, anddevelopments surrounding such issues as immigration,data privacy and security, China’s Belt and Road Initiative,multi‑speed European integration, and automation’simpact on the future of work and economic developmenttogether strongly suggest that we have entered adistinctly new era in which many of the assumptions ofprior periods no longer hold.Like its precursors, Globalization 4.0 will be shaped by acombination of governance decisions and technologicaldevelopments. As emerging technologies transformour systems of health, transportation, communication,production, distribution and energy, to name just afew, we will need to construct a new synergy betweenpublic policy and institutions on the one hand, andcorporate behaviour and norms on the other, whichenables humanity to rise above the false choices that aresometimes posed.We do not face a stark choice between free trade andprotectionism, technology and jobs, immigration andnational identity or economic growth and social equity.These are false dichotomies. However, the prominenceof these polemics in contemporary political discourseillustrates how underprepared we are for Globalization4.0. More imaginative approaches are urgently needed totranscend them and assure an often sceptical public thatglobal integration and technical change do not inherentlypit countries against each other in a zero sum game or,worse yet, a race to the bottom.Because the changes underway today are not isolatedto a particular country, industry or issue, they requirea global and systemic approach. Indeed, the veryuniversality of this governance challenge creates animportant opportunity for international relations. It couldprovide the basis for a common project at a time whenthe international community has been fracturing alongmultiple lines. Cooperation on this shared imperativecould help to build trust among countries and otherstakeholders in ways that spill over positively into otherareas of international relations.In approaching this challenge, the internationalcommunity might usefully draw inspiration fromDumbarton Oaks and Bretton Woods, the twoprocesses of international reflection and dialogue thatgave birth to the United Nations system and BrettonWoods institutions, respectively, after the Second WorldWar. These extended discussions created the necessary6space for their participants to draw practical lessonsfrom the recent past and translate them into a sharedview of the governance architecture needed to enable abetter future.What is needed today is an analogous but more inclusiveand sustained process of reflection and dialogue aboutthe meaning of the Fourth Industrial Revolution andthe big ecological, geopolitical and social changesof our time for the modernization of public policy,corporate governance and international institutionsand arrangements. How are these four simultaneoustransformations affecting the effectiveness of ourgovernance architecture, and what correspondingmodifications to it are needed going forward?The World Economic Forum is dedicating its activitiesover the next year to furthering such reflection anddialogue on a global, multistakeholder basis, beginningwith its Annual Meeting 2019. This White Paper has beenprepared to inform and concretize these discussionsas well as to place them in a systemic context. It isorganized as follows:–– General design parameters – a series of observationsregarding what these four transformations imply for thegeneral design specifications of effective internationalcooperative architecture in the age of the FourthIndustrial Revolution.–– Specific architectural innovations – an illustrativeset of promising existing initiatives and proposals toimprove the performance of international institutionsand arrangements in part by embodying one or moreof these design features.These general design parameters and specificarchitectural innovations are presented for the purposeraising the ambition of the discussion in part bygrounding it in a practical understanding of the some ofthe most important available opportunities for progressin key domains. The White Paper has been compiledthrough consultation with members of a number ofForum communities, including the Forum’s GlobalFuture Councils, System Initiatives and Centres. It doesnot seek to be exhaustive or prescriptive. Nor doesit represent a formal position of the World EconomicForum or its members or partners. Rather, its aim is toinspire everyone to respond to the call to action inherentin the Annual Meeting’s theme and think seriouslyabout how they and their organizations might bestcontribute concretely to shaping the enabling architectureimprovements needed in this new era of human history,beginning by engaging in the dialogues organized at theAnnual Meeting and continuing in the Forum’s Centresand regional activities during the course of 2019.Globalization 4.0: Shaping a New Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Consultation DraftTowards an Operating System Upgrade for GlobalCooperation and Domestic GovernanceGeneral Design ParametersThe transformations described above have exposedsignificant weaknesses in policy models andcooperative arrangements in virtually every domain.In order to remain fully effective in this new era, manyinternational governance mechanisms in particularwill need to adopt at least some of the followingcharacteristics. Together, these begin to describe theenhanced operating system for global cooperation thatGlobalization 4.0 requires. And they offer a frameworkfor thinking about how the international community canmodernize and strengthen the absolutely indispensablemultilateral core of the international system.Indeed, all international organizations and cooperativearrangements, whether multilateral or not, would dowell to evaluate themselves in relation to the questionsposed below, as the design features they highlightare likely to help them function more effectively in ourmore technologically dynamic, politically multipolar andenvironmentally stressed world in which public trust isan increasingly precious resource:–– Outcome‑oriented. Is the policy framework orinstitution in question focused sufficiently onproducing results as opposed to administeringprocesses? Process is important, but it is a meansto accomplish actual improvements in policy orcooperation, and producing tangible outcomesis ultimately as important a determinant of aninstitution’s legitimacy as proper processes.–– Multidimensional. Is the cooperative institution orarrangement in question mobilizing all of the mostrelevant expertise and resources available to helpachieve its intended outcomes, even if they areoutside its formal thematic or stakeholder remit? Inorder to achieve the scale, efficiency or innovationneeded to produce such outcomes, governancemechanisms increasingly need to engage multipledimensions of cooperation, including, but goingwell beyond, intergovernmental cooperation. Tobe effective they will often need to engage privateactors, whether from companies, academia orcivil society, as well as operate in ecosystems andvalue chains, as opposed to isolated thematics orsectors. Subnational governments are also criticalactors. In other words, an effective governancemechanism often needs to be focused as muchon the orchestration of an entire system ofcooperation as it is on delivering the desired resultthrough its own devices. In a world of complexinterdependence, this concept of multidimensionalcooperation, which includes but extends beyondmultilateral (inter‑state) cooperation, is increasinglyessential for effective governance.5–– Agile. Is the policy model or institution paying sufficientheed to the spectrum of governance tools availableto address a given challenge, ranging from formallegally binding norms (treaties, laws and regulations)to “soft law” standards, guidelines, principles andmethodologies to improvements in the alignment ofmetrics, disclosure and benchmarking practices? Allof these have the potential to influence behaviour, butsome will be more appropriate than others dependingupon the circumstances. Indeed, some of the informalor “soft law” approaches may be useful steppingstones to more formal rules insofar as they allow forthe experimentation, feedback loops and iterativerefinement that are the hallmarks of agile governance,an increasingly important feature of effectivepolicy‑making, particularly when technology is a factor.–– Interoperable. Will the policy or institutional approachunder consideration work adequately in differentgovernance systems or has it been built with only onemodel of economic or political governance in mind?We live in a multiconceptual as well

a new phase of globalization – Globalization 4.0 – whose trajectory will depend in large measure on how well governance at multiple levels – governmental, corporate and international – adapts to these changes. Modernizing our governance architecture to make enhance its effectiveness in this

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