The Ocean As A Solution To Climate Change
Commissioned byThe Ocean asa Solution toClimate ChangeFive Opportunities for ActionCONVENING LEAD AUTHOROve Hoegh-GuldbergEXPERT AUTHORS:Ken Caldeira, Thierry Chopin, Steve Gaines, Peter Haugan, Mark Hemer,Jennifer Howard, Manaswita Konar, Dorte Krause-Jensen, ElizabethLindstad, Catherine E. Lovelock, Mark Michelin, Finn Gunnar Nielsen,Eliza Northrop, Robert Parker, Joyashree Roy, Tristan Smith, Shreya Some,and Peter Tyedmersoceanpanel.org
About this PaperEstablished in September 2018, the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (HLP) is a uniqueinitiative of 14 serving heads of government committed to catalysing bold, pragmatic solutions for oceanhealth and wealth that support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and build a better future for peopleand the planet. By working with governments, experts and stakeholders from around the world, the High LevelPanel aims to develop a roadmap for rapidly transitioning to a sustainable ocean economy, and to trigger,amplify and accelerate responsive action worldwide.The Panel consists of the presidents or prime ministers of Australia, Canada, Chile, Fiji, Ghana, Indonesia,Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Norway, Palau and Portugal, and is supported by an Expert Group,Advisory Network and Secretariat that assist with analytical work, communications and stakeholderengagement. The Secretariat is based at World Resources Institute.This report was prepared in support of the work of the HLP to provide the robust science base and practicalrecommendations for action across issues central to the attainment of a sustainable ocean economy. Thearguments, findings, and recommendations made in this report represent the views of the authors. Whilethe HLP supports the general thrust of the findings and recommendations, members have not been asked toformally endorse the report, and should not be taken as having done so.Suggested Citation: Hoegh-Guldberg. O., et al. 2019. ‘‘The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action.’’ Report. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available online athttp://www.oceanpanel.org/climate
Table of ContentsForeword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Ocean-based Renewable Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Ocean-based Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Coastal and Marine Ecosystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47Fisheries, Aquaculture, and Shifting Diets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59Carbon Storage in the Seabed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69Wider Impacts of Ocean-based Actions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Glossary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110About the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Foreword
FO RE W O R DThe Ocean: FromVictim to SolutionConcerned about the accelerating impacts of climate change, cognizant of the paucity of attention to ocean-basedmitigation options, and motivated to accelerate progress to address climate change, the High Level Panel for aSustainable Ocean Economy (HLP) asked us, the co-chairs of the HLP Expert Group, to convene an internationalteam of scientists and other experts to evaluate the potential for ocean-based actions to contribute to reducinggreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.1Previous and recent reports describe the important role of the ocean in climate change – including its uptakeof heat and CO2— and the serious consequences of climate change on ocean ecosystems. The most recentIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in aChanging Climate, highlights the dire impacts on the ocean that are already underway and provides a sense of evengreater urgency to reduce GHG emissions aggressively.This HLP report provides a timely pivot from ‘problem’ to a significant missing piece of the ‘solution’. Heretofore,climate mitigation policy has concentrated intensively on land-based mitigation activities. The HLP report offers thefirst comprehensive, integrated assessment of the mitigation potential of a suite of ocean-based activities: renewableenergy, transport, food production, and ecosystems, and the potential future contribution from carbon storage ifcurrent concerns can be resolved. Each of these five areas is assessed for its potential to close the emissions gapin 2030 and 2050 relative to a 1.5 C degree and 2 C degree pathway. Moreover, each activity is also evaluated forits wider benefits to society (beyond mitigation). Finally, the report highlights the enabling policy measures andresearch required for success.As co-chairs of the HLP Expert Group, we wish to warmly thank the authors, the reviewers, and the Secretariat atWorld Resources Institute for responding rapidly and effectively to the opportunity to conduct novel analyses,hold them up to scrutiny through peer review, and hopefully accelerate serious reductions of GHG emissions. Withthis report, we launch the first in a series of products of the HLP Expert Group that are responsive to the interestsof the members of the HLP and designed to provide actionable analyses, syntheses, and recommendations forconsideration by the HLP and other interested parties. Our goal is to deliver timely scientific analysis that respondsdirectly to policy requests and societal needs.We also thank the members of the HLP for their vision in suggesting this analysis. We hope they and other partiesact on the report’s information with an urgency that is commensurate with the seriousness of the problem. Forwardlooking policies that both combat climate change and enable a sustainable ocean economy are feasible and neededwithout delay.Hon. Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D.Oregon State UniversityProfessor Peter Haugan, Ph.D.Institute of Marine Research, NorwayHon. Mari Elka Pangestu, Ph.D.University of Indonesia 1. This study was undertaken by the co-chairs of the HLP Expert Group, ably assisted by the Secretariat, at the request of the Members of the HLP. Onbehalf of the co-chairs, J. Lubchenco served as the report arbiter, overseeing the selection of authors, independent peer review, and approval ofthe final report. Co-chair P. Haugan, co-author and contributor to the report, was not involved in the arbitration process.The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action 1
Executive SummaryThe ocean is a dominant feature of our planet,covering 70 percent of its surface and driving itsclimate and biosphere. The ocean sustains lifeon earth and yet is in peril from climate change.However, while much of recent attention is focusedon the problems that the ocean faces, the ocean isalso a source of potential solutions and innovation.This report explores how the ocean, its coastalregions and economic activities can provideopportunities in the fight against climate change.The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action 3
Highlights Until recently, the ocean was thought to be so largethat its response to climate change was thought to beminimal; it has now taken centre stage in the impactsand solutions. Ocean-based mitigation options to reduce orsequester and store emissions offer significantpotential to contribute to global efforts to limit globalwarming and for achieving the goals of the ParisAgreement. Ocean-based mitigation options could reduce globalgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by nearly 4 billiontonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) perannum in 2030 and by more than 11 billion tonnesper annum in 2050, relative to projected business-asusual (BAU) emissions. Reductions of this magnitudeare larger than the emissions from all current coalfired power plants world-wide and more than China’stotal emissions in 2014. Ocean-based mitigation options could reduce the“emissions gap” (the difference between emissionsexpected if current trends and policies continue andemissions consistent with limiting global temperatureincrease) by up to 21 percent on a 1.5 C pathway, andby about 25 percent on a 2.0 C pathway, by 2050. This report considers five areas of ocean-basedclimate action to mitigate GHG emissions: oceanbased renewable energy; ocean-based transport;coastal and marine ecosystems; the ocean-basedfood system (wild capture fisheries, aquaculture, andshifting human diets towards food from the sea); andcarbon storage in the seabed.4 High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy Ocean-based renewable energy production currentlyoffers the greatest potential for delivering cleanenergy and reducing GHG emissions, with theexpansion of floating wind and solar facilities beingexciting frontiers. When wider impacts on the environment andsocial well-being are considered, nature-basedinterventions—especially protection and restorationof mangroves, seagrass and salt marshes—offer thebest combination of carbon mitigation and broadercobenefits. While innovation is required to improve manyspecific technologies and practices, four of theocean-based climate action areas are ready tobe implemented today (ocean-based renewableenergy; ocean-based transport; coastal and marineecosystems; the ocean-based food system). Thiscould offer many cobenefits in terms of creatingjobs, improving air quality and human health, andsupporting livelihoods if implementation addressestrade-offs with sustainable development dimensionsappropriately. The fifth, carbon storage in the seabed,has significant theoretical potential to divert carbonfrom the atmosphere, but it currently faces significanttechnical, economic, and sociopolitical challenges(e.g., environmental safety) that must be adequatelyexplored prior to deployment at the scale requiredto make a substantive contribution to solving theclimate problem. Ocean-based mitigation options must beaccompanied by deep cuts in emissions acrossterrestrial GHG sources, including measures to phaseout fossil fuels, create sustainable food systems, andincrease carbon sequestration and storage in forestsand other natural ecosystems.
Climate ChangeThreatens the OceanThe world needs to move rapidly and systematically toreduce emissions of green house gases (GHGs) to theatmosphere if it is to avoid irreversible climate impacts(IPCC 2014; IPCC 2018). Greater efforts are essential toaccelerate and scale decarbonisation of the economyand pursue a pathway to net-zero emissions by themiddle of the century. The sooner widespread actionbegins, the more cost-effective it will be, and the greaterthe chance of avoiding the worst impacts of rapidhuman-driven climate change.Following the findings of the IPCC Special Report on theimplications of 1.5 C warming above the preindustrialperiod (IPCC 2018), it is now abundantly clear thatstronger action to mitigate GHG emissions is a globalimperative that will require an inclusive approach acrossthe whole of the global economy. To date, much of theattention has been directed to the role of terrestrialsources of emissions and sinks. The ocean and itscoastal regions, however, offer a wide array of additionalpotential mitigation options.The ocean plays a fundamental role in regulatingglobal temperatures. Not only does the ocean absorb93 percent of the heat trapped by rising anthropogeniccarbon dioxide (CO2), but it also absorbs approximately25 to 30 percent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions thatwould otherwise remain in the atmosphere and increaseglobal warming. The ocean also produces around50 percent of the oxygen on the planet through thephotosynthetic activity of marine plants and algae.The ocean’s ability to contribute to these fundamentallyimportant services, however, is at risk (IPCC 2019). Oceanwarming and acidification (the latter being a direct resultof the extra CO2 dissolving into the ocean) are damagingmarine ecosystems and compromising the ability of theocean to provide food, livelihoods, and safe coastal livingon which billions of people depend (IPCC 2014, 2018,2019).Efforts to protect the ocean and its vitally importantecosystems cannot be considered in isolation from thechallenge of stabilising the global climate. To securethe long-term health of the ocean and the livelihoodsand economies that depend on it, atmosphericconcentrations of GHGs must be urgently reduced. Thisreport outlines a suite of options for how the ocean andcoastal regions can contribute to lowering projectedemission trajectories and help achieve the temperaturestabilisation goals established in the Paris Agreement onClimate Change (UNFCCC 2015).The Ocean is a Major Partof the Climate SolutionOcean-based mitigation options do not feature asprominently as they could in countries’ nationallydetermined contributions (NDCs) or long-term lowgreenhouse gas emission development strategies underthe Paris Agreement. This report presents a wide array ofpotential ocean-based mitigation options and providesdetailed analysis of their potential contribution toclosing the emissions gap in 2030 and 2050 (Box ES-1).Box ES-1. Why the World Needs to‘‘Close the Emissions Gap’’Each year, the United Nation’s Emissions Gap Report compareswhere global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are headedwith where they need to be if the world is to avoid the worstimpacts of climate change. Scientists first collect the latestinformation on countries’ climate commitments, expressedin their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), andcalculate their projected emissions pathway. They thencompare this pathway with the latest models on how warmingcould be limited to either 1.5 C or 2.0 C, the temperature goalsto which countries committed under the Paris Agreement ofDecember 2015, and the limits scientists say are necessaryfor preventing some of the worst climate change impacts.The most recent report (UNEP 2018) concludes that unlesscountries strengthen their ambition and cut 2030 emissionsbeyond the targets established in their current NDCs,exceeding a temperature rise of 1.5 C “can no longer beavoided.” And unless the emissions gap is closed by 2030, it isunlikely that warming can be held below 2.0 C.Source: Levin et al. (2018).The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action 5
Five areas of ocean-based climate action are consideredin this report: Ocean-based renewable energy, including offshorewind and other energy sources, such as wave andtidal power. Ocean-based transport, including freight andpassenger shipping. Coastal and marine ecosystems, including protectionand restoration of mangroves, salt marshes, seagrassbeds, and seaweeds. Fisheries, aquaculture, and dietary shifts away fromemission intensive land-based protein sources (e.g.,red meat) towards low carbon ocean-based proteinand other sources of nutrition. Carbon storage in the seabed.Additional ocean-based carbon storage options, such asdirect injection into the deep ocean, alkalinity addition,and iron fertilisation are discussed, but due to thecurrent uncertainty regarding their viability and higherrisk of adverse impact on the ocean, they have beenexcluded from the calculated mitigation potentials.Offshore oil and gas drilling, although the mostsignificant source of ocean-based CO2 emissions, is notdiscussed in the report, as it has been comprehensivelytackled by other reports and its tracjectory is clear.Within each area, this report assesses the set ofindividual mitigation options that could be undertaken,along with the technology developments and policiesrequired to advance implementation. These mitigationoptions are summarised in Figure ES-1, along with theirmitigation potential in 2050. We also examine currentand future deployment scenarios and suggest researchFigure ES-1. Ocean-based Mitigation Options Explored in This Report and Associated Annual Mitigation Potential in 2050Offshore Wind0.65–3.50 GtC02eInternational Shipping0.75–1.5 GtC02eDietary Shifts0.3–1.06 GtC02eDomestic Shipping0.15–0.3 GtC02eAquaculture0.02–0.04 GtC02eOcean Energy0.11–1.90 GtC02eWild Capture Fisheries0.08–0.14 GtC02eSource: Authors6 High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean EconomyMangroves0.18–0.29 GtC02eSeaweedFarming0.05–0.29 GtC02eSalt Marshes0.05–0.10 GtC02eSeagrasses 0.22–0.70 GtC02eSeabed Storage of Carbon0.5–2.0 GtC02e
priorities to improve the feasibility and scale of eachoption. The inclusion of any particular mitigation optionin this report does not imply endorsement.2030 and 2050 as shown in Figure ES-2. Table ES-1 showsthe total mitigation potential (expressed as a range) foreach of the intervention areas.This report concludes that actions across all five oceanbased climate action areas of intervention have thepotential to reduce emissions by up to 4 billion tonnesof CO2e per annum in 2030, and by more than 11 billiontonnes of CO2e per annum in 2050, thereby making asignificant contribution to closing the emissions gap inFigures ES-3 and ES-4 below show the emissionreduction and/or sequestration potential of each areaof ocean-based climate action, including individualmitigation options, for 2030 and 2050.Table ES-1. Summary of Global Mitigation Potential Offered by Each Area of Ocean-based Climate Action2030 MITIGATIONPOTENTIAL (GTCO2E/YEAR)2050 MITIGATIONPOTENTIAL (GTCO2E/YEAR)0.18–0.250.76–5.400.24 – 0.470.9 – 1.803. Coastal and marine ecosystems0.32–0.890.50–1.384. Fisheries, aquaculture, and dietary shifts0.34–0.940.48–1.24AREAS OF OCEAN-BASED CLIMATE ACTION1. Ocean-based renewable energy2. Ocean-based transport5. Carbon storage in the seabed (Action in this Area RequiresFurther Research Prior to Implementation at 1.82Total percentage contribution to closing emissions gap(1.5 C pathway)4–12 %6–21%Total percentage contribution to closing emissions gap(2 C pathway)7–19%7–25%Source: AuthorsThe Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action 7
Figure ES-2. Contribution of Ocean-based Mitigation Options to Closing the Emissions Gap in 205070656025%Current Policy baseline555045GtCO2e4035Pathway to limitwarming to 2oC302520Pathway to limitwarming to 1.5oC15105020152020202520302035Source: Adapted from UNEP 2018, Climate Action Tracker (2018).8 High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy204020452050Remaininggap to staywithin2oC limitProportionof emissionsgap thatcould beclosedby oceanmitigation21%Remaininggap to staywithin1.5oC limit
Maximum annual emissions reductions (GtCO2e)*Figure ES-3. Contribution of Five Ocean-based Clima
The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action 5 Climate Change Threatens the Ocean The world needs to move rapidly and systematically to reduce emissions of green house gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere if it is to avoid irreversible climate impacts
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