One Nation - One Vision
www.pc.gov.pkPA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5i
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www.pc.gov.pkOne Nation - One VisionPA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5iii
ContentsSocioeconomic Performance Review5 7 Framework for Growth and DevelopmentKey EnablersPillar II: Achieving Sustained, Indigenous and Inclusive GrowthPillar IV: Water, Energy and Food SecurityPillar V: Private Sector and Entrepreneurship Led Growth25 Goals for Pakistan 20250111202427314251586874859097100
www.pc.gov.pkIntroductionPA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 51
One Nation - One VisionOur Shared DestinationFor a nation to progress it must have a clearidea of its longer-term aspirations. Withoutthis clarity it will neither be able to preparea coherent roadmap for action nor adoptand implement the policies that would leadtowards the objectives. A national vision ismeant to provide clarity to our shared visionof the future. Indeed, Pakistan was foundedon such a vision—the “Pakistani Dream”, avision of a prosperous, equitable, tolerant,and dynamic society—which was at the heartof the Independence Movement, even if, overthe years, its clarity has diminished. It wasthe foundational vision for the new country,inspired by that generation of leaders, andarticulated through the struggles of our peoplefor independence and nationhood. The purposeof this document and all that has gone into itspreparation is to recreate this vision, re-buildupon it, and help translate it into reality.Since 1947, Pakistan has made considerableprogress on many fronts. However, on theeve of our 68th independence day, there isconsensus that the pace of progress has notbeen commensurate with the promise andpotential of our nation; we need to do betterand faster. There is a general misconceptionthat faster means no or less planning andmore action. The reality is that the quality ofplanning is one of the key determinants ofthe speed of action and desired outcomes.Over time, the nature and role of planninghas undergone a major transformation.Today the national planning process is moreparticipatory, collaborative, people andmarket oriented. Plans succeed when theymanifest the aspirations of a nation, empowerthe citizens, and especially the private sector,2PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5
www.pc.gov.pkto play their respective roles, provide equalequitable opportunities to all and assign a verywell defined role to government as a supporter,facilitator, regulator and performance drivenservice provider.Pakistan Vision 2025 is designed to representan aspirational destination. It will serve asa critical guide-post for the development ofan effective strategy and road-map to reachour national goals and aspirations. It is notmeant to represent the resultant strategy andprogramme itself. The Vision will be realizedthrough strategies and programmes defined inassociated five-year and annual plans.Pakistan today faces formidable social,economic, security and governance challenges.Many nations have faced similar challengesin history and successfully turned theminto opportunities through sound economicplanning, good governance and consistencyin policy implementation. We believe that,once effectively addressed, our challengeslikewise offer unprecedented opportunitiesfor transformational progress. As we passthrough an era of unprecedented change andcomplexity, it is imperative that we refreshour framework for national development.A renewed commitment to the foundingvision is needed, both to address the currentchallenges and set out realistic and ambitioustargets for the future—including ensuring thatPakistan succeeds in achieving the proposedSustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ofzero poverty and hunger, universal access tohealth services, education, modern energyservices, clean water and sanitation, and jointhe league of Upper Middle Income countriesby 2025. Our ultimate aspiration is to seePakistan among the ten largest economies ofthe world by 2047 – the centennial year of ourindependence.Pakistan is currently facing serious challengeson various fronts. These include thecombination of low growth and high inflation,which is one of the major factors leading to theperpetuation of poverty and unemployment.Energy shortages have posed great problemsto the citizens as well as businesses andagriculture. Social indicators reflect seriousdeficiencies in education, health andpopulation, gender equity and social services.The law and order situation in the countryOur ultimate destinationis to see Pakistanamong the ten largesteconomies of theworld by 2047 – thecentennial year of ourindependence.poses a critical threat to security as well as theeconomy. The decade-long struggle againstterrorism and extremism continues to imposeimmense social, economic, and human costs.The challenges are compounded by a number ofadverse exogenous developments, especiallythe looming threat of climate change, theaftermath of global economic, financial, andenergy crises, unabated fragility of the globalfinancial system, and the continued stagnationin developed country import demand as wellas aid flows.The situation calls for a consensus-basednational vision and comprehensive strategyto not only combat these challenges, but alsoproactively embrace the future based on ‘ThePakistani Dream’, which lay at the heart of themovement for the creation of Pakistan.PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 53
One Nation - One VisionNotwithstanding the multitude of challenges,recentdevelopments,bothinternaland external, also provide a basis foroptimism. Recent years have witnessed thetransformational impact of the deepening ofdemocratic culture and institutions. There isa growing consensus that the future of thecountry is linked with the upholding of theprinciples of the rule of law, independence ofthe judiciary and constitutionalism. The spacefor freedom of expression through the growingvoice of a vibrant media has expanded. Inspite of attacks on journalists, the resolve ofPakistan’s media has only grown stronger toshow that this phenomenon is irreversible.There is a growing and engaged civil societyin the country, which is giving greater voice tocitizens in shaping the future direction of thecountry.The passing of the 18th constitutionalamendment by consensus is a proof of greaterpolitical maturity in our leadership. 2013 wasa landmark year in Pakistan’s history. Thecountry witnessed its first democratic transferof power in 65 years upon completion of afull term by an elected government. The newgovernment, elected with a mandate to fix andreform Pakistan’s economy and make it one ofthe leading economies in Asia, has taken severalimmediate steps to arrest economic declineand stagnation. These include measures toreduce non-productive expenditure and raiserevenues, managerial changes to stop thehaemorrhaging in public sector enterprises, the4PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5announcement of an energy policy, resolutionof the circular debt issue, rationalization ofsubsidies, and introduction of incentives forthe private sector. These steps have helped instabilizing the macroeconomic environmentof the country, which is evident from growingforeign exchange reserves, robustness in thestock market, growing economic engagementof friends of Pakistan in the developmentsector, and stabilization of the Pak Rupee. Thecountry’s first National Security Policy wasannounced and a consensus was developed totackle the law and order situation across thecountry.Having taken necessary short-term actionsto stabilize the economy, it is logical that thefocus shifts towards the medium to long termframework that will bring Pakistan’s economyto its full strength and potential. PakistanVision 2025 should be seen as the first stage inthe development journey, providing a balancedand solid platform of sustainable growth anddevelopment, and enabling the achievementof the larger vision of transforming Pakistaninto a high income economy by 2047 - the firstcentenary of Independence.
www.pc.gov.pkPakistan Vision 2025privatesectorentrepreneurs,In order to streamline discussions and obtaincoherent inputs from all sectors of the economy, thedevelopmenttanks, independent experts, Non-GovernmentalNovember 22, 2013. The conference was chairedMinisters of all four Provinces and the PrimeMinister of AJ&K, as well as over one thousandbest ideas put forward in earlier vision documentsand medium-term plans were also drawn upon inpreparing Vision 2025.PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 55
One Nation - One VisionThe Founding VisionOn the eve of independence the Quaid-e-Azam heldout a simple but compelling vision for Pakistan’sfuture—a responsible government, based on the ruleof law, constitutionalism and democracy, striving forthe prosperity, well being, and security of the people,especially the poor.Although the country has exhibited respectableeconomic growth with a phenomenal increase in thequantum of inherited infrastructure, it continues tolag behind in the sphere of human and social capitaldevelopment and national cohesion.These are daunting challenges. However, thePakistani nation has overcome overwhelming oddsin the past; its creation and very survival in theearly years was seen by many as impossible, butin the first decade after independence a sharedmoral purpose and dedicated leadership changedthe impossible into the possible. Today, Pakistanagain needs this winning combination to recreatethe Pakistani Dream: a national vision to providea shared destination, a motivation for synergisingefforts, and a structure to enable leap-frogging onthe development pathway.“ the first duty of a government is to maintain law andorder, so that the life, property, and religious beliefs of itssubjects are fully protected by the State . if we want tomake this great State of Pakistan happy and prosperous weshould wholly and solely concentrate on the well-being ofthe people, and especially of the masses and the poor.”Unfortunately the deviation from the foundingvision of the Father of the Nation, starting in 1958,contributed to the erosion of an overarching socialconsensus, leading to the division of the countryinto sub-national and sectarian identities. It is timeMuhammad Ali Jinnah (August 11, 1947)to recover the founding vision of the Father of theNation.These are ambitious goals but not unprecedented in recent history. Indeed, the achievements of the Asian Tigersrepresent the pursuit of precisely these integrated goals: high levels of human development (including universalaccess to health and education services, poverty eradication, and empowerment of women), rapid rates ofsustainable and inclusive economic growth, adherence to the rule of law, and steady progress towards democraticand transparent governance, achievement of water, food, and energy security, strong incentives for the privatesector, sustained investment in knowledge resources, and optimal reliance on regional connectivity as an engineof growth.Our Vision today is to make Pakistan the next Asian Tiger6PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5
www.pc.gov.pkimpact of population growthPakistan’s population is projected to increaseto over 227 million by 2025. The populationwill also comprise a much larger proportionof younger people (63% below the age of 30).These demographic projections raise a numberof issues for the country.First, other than oil-rich economies, no countryhas been able to break into the high-incomeclub without a radical reduction of its populationgrowth rate. The first implication of the highpopulation is the downward pressure it puts ongrowth. This is mainly because investment fundshave to be concentrated in meeting the needsof the growing population (education, health,housing, police, and other infrastructure), ratherthan productivity growth. As such, the need forlowering the growth rate of population is moreurgent than ever.Second, on the positive side, the declining fertilityrates during this period will create a demographicdividend, in which the dependency ratio (the ratioof working to non-working people, i.e., adultsversus children and old people) will fall. This cancreate an opportunity for the country to boostits productive capacity because of the increasein the supply of human resources. However,whether or not this demographic dividend isrealized depends on the investments being madein human development, especially education,training, and health. Demographic dividend is awindow of opportunity that is available till 2045beyond which aging trend will set in.Third, a critical component of these investmentsin human development is catering to the foodand nutrition needs of the growing population.Given the prospect of climate change anddepleting water resource, this will constitute onePA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 57
One Nation - One Visionof the major challenges faced by the country inthe coming years. The recent National NutritionSurvey noted that approximately 60 per centof the country’s population is facing foodinsecurity and nearly 50 per cent of the womenand children are malnourished. These nutritionalinadequacies hinder the development of theintellectual faculties of school-going children andyoung adults consigned to such diets, and couldthus perpetuate intergenerational inequalities ofopportunity and income. The growing populationin Pakistan poses a significant threat to foodsecurity, Pakistan’s development and socialindicators and stability. A responsible and accountable governmentand public sector An entrepreneurial private sector that cangenerate the required number of jobs. Ensuring that the economy can engageeffectively with and benefit from theopportunities emerging outside the borders,especially regional opportunities. Ensuring competitiveness in the modernworld that has shifted towards a knowledgeeconomy.Fourth, it will also be a huge and urgentchallenge to provide meaningful jobs for thegrowing number of individuals entering theworkforce. About 1.5 million new jobs willneed to be created every year just to keep theunemployment at its existing rate. Providing fullemployment is important not only for increasingproduction levels, but also to raise family incomesand consumption, ensure the maintenance ofthe self-esteem of individuals, reducing incomedisparities, and thus protecting the social fabric. Protecting natural resources and addressingclimate change. Perhaps most importantly, ensuring rapidgrowth of the GDP in order to generatethe required number of jobs, with anemphasis on ‘inclusive growth’, mindful ofthe regional and social inequalities whichexist in our economy. A concerted effort tocreate balanced growth and provide equalopportunities to all Pakistanis.This means that the translation of this visioninto action will require focusing on a number ofpriority areas.8 Meeting the basic needs of this growingpopulation, including in particular their accessto essential services—health, education,energy, water, and sanitation.In order to achieve our desired growth anddevelopment goals, it is necessary to understandthe new global context and realities and inparticular how these affect Pakistan. In addition,it is also important to review our developmenthistory and extract key lessons for futureplanning and development to avoid the mistakesof the past. Providing the social, legal, and physicalinfrastructure needed to empower peopleand ensure that they are able to live theirlives with dignity, and that human rightsare protected, lives are secure, there is fullemployment (i.e., over 1.5 million additionaldecent jobs are created every year), womenare empowered, and that poverty and hungerare eliminated.There are lessons from newly developed andemerging economies. However, our approach isthat while we learn from the best practices ofother nations we must develop our indigenousmodel of development - a ‘Pakistani model’based heavily on inclusive growth and indigenousfactors focused on improving productivity ofresources deployed across our agricultural,manufacturing and services sectors.PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5
www.pc.gov.pkElements of the VisionPeople conomyGovernanceVision 2025PrivateSectorWaterEnergyFoodPA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 59
One Nation - One VisionThe realization of this vision requires simultaneous attention to a number of areas. Thenation-wide stakeholder consultations have identified 7 priority areas or pillars. Each of thesefinds resonance with one or more of the latest proposals for the Sustainable DevelopmentGoals (SDGs), and Pillars 1-4 with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).1.PillarPeople First: Developingsocial and human capitaland empowering women2.Growth: Sustained,indigenous, and inclusivegrowth3.Governance: Democra cgovernance: ins tu onalreform andmoderniza on of thepublic sectorSecurity: Energy, water,and food security4.5.6.7.Links with MDGsThis pillar encompasses povertyeradica on (MDG1), access to healthand educa on services (MDGs 2, 4, 5,and 6), and gender empowerment(MDG 3).While this was not an explicit goal, itwas a key driver of MDGs, as well asbeing implicit in MDG 1 (equity, decentwork), and MDG 6 (environmentalsustainability).Again, while not an explicit goal, there isabundant evidence that shows theposi ve impact of good governance onthe human development goals.Links with SDGsSDGs 1 (poverty), 3,(health) 4 (educa on),and 5 (gender)These are incorporated in MDG 1(hunger), and MDG 6 (water)Linked to SDG 2 (zerohunger), 6 (watersecurity), 7 (energysecurity), and 11(urban)This is linked to SDG9 (foster innova on)Entrepreneurship:Private Sector andentrepreneurship-ledgrowthKnowledge Economy:Developing acompe ve knowledgeeconomy through valueaddi onConnec vity:Modernizing transportinfrastructure andregional connec vityThe target is virtuallyiden cal to SDG 8,and also to SDGs 10,12, 13, 14, 15Again, the language issimilar to that of SDG16SDG 9 (innova on),and 4 (educa on)SDG 9(infrastructure), and17 (globalpartnership)The Vision 2025 process builds upon the largely successful pursuit of the MDGs, and is alaunching pad for the complete fulfilment of the SDGs before their target date of 2030.10PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5
www.pc.gov.pkNew GlobalContext, Trends& RealitiesPA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 511
One Nation - One VisionWe are living in an era of unprecedented changeand complexity in which the paradigms of humanprogress, prosperity and development are undergoing fundamental shifts. While industry andmanufacturing will continue to be the engines ofgrowth, the era of industrial revolution is over anda new ‘Knowledge Revolution’ era has dawned.This has changed the rules of success and failure for nations. To chart the future developmentcourse, it is imperative to apprehend the new realities and trends. Such points of inflection offergreat opportunities to leap frog and become oneof the fastest growing economies in Asia.Economic TrendsFour major trends economic trends may havesignificant implication for the future of the worldeconomy and the prospects for developmentin middle-income countries. These include the“rise of the South”, continuing globalization andregionalization, the advent of the knowledgerevolution, and the impact of the global recessionon international cooperation.12PA K I S TA N V I S I O N 2 0 2 5New global trends relatingto economic, physical andenvironmental, and socialdevelopments presenta mix of challenges andopportunitiesIt is important tounderstand this contextand its implications forthe realization of PakistanVision 2025.
www.pc.gov.pkEconomic TrendsShifting epicenter of global economic activityMost growth over the next few decades willbe in emerging markets. Asia has emerged asthe new continent of growth. India and Chinaare expected to contribute a fifth of the increase in global consumer demand over thenext decade. The renewed upward trend inenergy prices is creating new sources of capital in the Gulf regi
towards the objectives. A national vision is meant to provide clarity to our shared vision of the future. Indeed, Pakistan was founded on such a vision—the “Pakistani Dream”, a vision of a prosperous, equitable,
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