Florida Orange Juice Outlook, Research And Marketing
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CITRUSFlorida Orange Juice Outlook,Research and MarketingPresented to International Citrus & Beverage ConferenceClearwater Beach, FloridaWednesday September 12, 2019
Overview(1) Trends influencing domestic orange juice availability;(2) Current OJ retail sales trends and consumer demand;(3) Overview of current scientific research on OJ nutrition andcommunication to consumers.3
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CITRUSFlorida Processed Orange Trends
USDA Citrus Crop Forecast – Oct. ’18 to July ‘19USDA July Forecast:71.4 mil boxes, up 58.8%USDA Oct. Forecast:79 mil boxes, up76%Citrus forecast Data Source: USDA
FCOJ/ReconNFCFlorida Citrus Season (Oct - 2-93Millions 90-lb BoxesFlorida Processed Orange UtilizationUtilization – 96.5% of Florida oranges into processed16014012010053.76015.20
Florida OJ Availability Beginning inventory Pack from Fruit: production, juice yields– Estimated pack from fruit declined since USDA October forecast by32 million SSE gallons Net ImportsMovementEnding InventoryExternal Trends*7
Beginning Inventory – FCOJ/Recon 14%, NFC 6% YOYMillions SSE Florida Citrus Season (Oct - Sept)8
NFC from Florida oranges – up 59% YOYSSOJ Net PS from Fruit, is equiv to309,101,386 million SSE Gallons.
FCOJ/Recon from Florida oranges – up 112% YOYFCOJ Net PS from Fruit, is equiv to84,826,793 million SSE Gallons.
FL Processor OJ Imports* and Juice from FL fruit comparison*Includes Domestic Receipts; 2018-19STD Season-to-date through August 10, 201911
Origin of Florida Processor ImportsFCOJ Imports/Domestic Receiptsdown by -9% through August 17,2019NFC Imports/Domestic Receipts upby 5% through August 24, 201912
FL Processor OJ Exports**2018-19 Season-to-date through August 24, 2019
Florida FCOJ/Recon and NFC Movement –Florida Processor Movement and Pack , By Season and TypeFCOJ/Recon Movement700Millions SSE Gallons6005004003002001000FCOJ/Recon PackNFC MovementNFC Pack
Current Weeks 44Florida Processor Inventory - FCOJ , SSOJ Millions SSE Florida Citrus Season (August - July)
Historical Beginning OJ Inventories(measured in Weeks Supply)SeasonWeek 30.627.341.548-50 weeksSSOJ17.719.021.521.927.624.824.417.728-30 weeks*Estimated 2018-19 Beginning Weeks Supply based on current movement/importtrends16
03/16/1904/13/1905/11/1906/08/1907/06/19SALES (Millions Equiv Gallons )762661559458357256155054Nielsen 4-week PeriodSALES UNITS EQU - GALLON BASISOunces per unitounces per unitShifting trends in packaging – ReconRecon OJ 50 to 70-Ounce Package Category60
03/16/1904/13/1905/11/1906/08/1907/06/19Sales (Millions Equiv Gallons )181258108566544252050Nielsen 4-week PeriodSALES UNITS EQU - GALLON BASISOunces per unitounces per unitShifting trends in packaging - NFCNFC OJ 50 to 70-Ounce Package Category62166014
Retail Orange JuiceMillions GallonsTL OJTL OJ REF NFCNFC 11ozNFC 11-20ozNFC 20-50ozNFC 50-70ozNFC 70-110ozNFC 110ozTL OJ REF RECONMillions DollarsPrice per EQ Gallon4 Wks YA4 Wks% Chg4 Wks YA4 Wks% Chg4 Wks YA4 Wks% Chg28.0326.90-4.0% 192.73 189.38-1.7% 6.88 7.042.4%16.2715.31-5.9% 132.74 131.01-1.3% 8.16 8.564.9%0.170.16-2.6% 2.00 1.98-1.0% 11.91 12.121.7%0.530.51-2.5% 7.86 7.961.2% 14.88 15.463.9%0.140.12-14.4% 1.81 1.73-4.6% 13.29 14.8211.5%10.759.78-9.1% 83.30 80.84-3.0% 7.75 8.276.7%3.964.031.8% 32.92 33.752.5% 8.32 8.370.7%0.730.71-2.8% 4.85 4.76-1.9% 6.64 6.700.9%9.699.63-0.7% 47.36 46.67-1.5% 4.89 4.85-0.8%Nielsen, FDOC Report #11 of the 2018-19 season period ending 8/03/2019
Displacement of NFC within OJ Category for Recon and Shelf StableOJ BLSS OJ6.59%3.07%FRZ OJ3.73%RECON OJ32.61%Note: SS stands for Shelf Stable JuiceNFC OJ54.00%Share of Volume Sales in OJ CategorySource: FDOC custom Nielsen databaseShare Chgfrom 2017-18Share Chgfrom 2016-17NFC OJ-1.92%-2.58%RECON OJ1.86%3.05%FRZ OJ-0.11%-0.20%SS OJ0.27%0.31%OJ BL-0.10%-0.57%Share2018-19:16 Wks Ending 06/08/192017-18:16 Wks Ending 06/09/182016-17:16 Wks Ending 06/10/17
Share of NFC and Recon dollars sales SS OJ3.20%OJ BL7.07%Note: SS stands for Shelf Stable JuiceShareFRZ OJ2.57%RECON OJ22.28%NFC OJ64.88%Share of Dollar Sales in OJ CategorySource: FDOC custom Nielsen databaseShare Chgfrom 2017-18Share Chgfrom 2016-17NFC OJ0.18%0.01%RECON OJ0.12%0.58%FRZ OJ-0.13%-0.24%SS OJ-0.12%0.17%OJ BL-0.05%-0.52%2018-19:16 Wks Ending 06/08/192017-18:16 Wks Ending 06/09/182016-17:16 Wks Ending 06/10/17
NFC – %Chg in Share of Volume Sales by Activity100%% Share Chg vsYANoPromoFeaturesDisplayFeatures& DisplayPriceReduction 11oz0.41-0.190.43-0.03-0.6311oz – 20oz0.99-0.850.05-0.04-0.1520oz – 50oz4.31-1.01-0.33-0.10-2.8660%50oz – 70oz-0.200.75-0.39-0.07-0.1050%70oz – 110oz5.55-1.84-0.97-0.03-2.7140% 110oz0.110.76-0.660.01-0.2290%80%70%30%52 Wks Ending 6/08/1952 Wks Ending 6/09/1820%10%0%NO PROMO 11ozFEATURES ONLY11oz - 20ozSource: FDOC custom Nielsen databaseDISPLAY ONLY20oz - 50oz50oz - 70ozFEATURES & DISPLAY70oz - 110ozPRICE REDUCTION 110oz
Shopping LocationsWhere have you personally shopped for food in the past 30 days?Source: Florida Department of Citrus, 2019
Summary OJ Retail Sales Trends Incremental decline in total OJ Category YOY. Decline in total NFC volume and dollar sales associated withdecline in distribution and expenditures for promotional activity. Decrease in price and/or higher promotional activity contributedto increase in volume and/or dollar sales within some categoriesof container sizes this season. Adjustment in packaging skews YOY comparison for NFC 50-70ozcontainer range.
Consumer Demand for OJ Increases with Positive AwarenessMessage AwarenessPositive MessageSocial MediaOther PromotionCitation: Y. Heng, R.W. Ward, L.A. House and M.L. Zansler. “Assessing key factorsinfluencing orange juice demand in the current US market,” Agribusiness. 2018;1–15.25
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CITRUSFlorida Orange JuiceNutrition ResearchSamantha LaneGlobal Marketing Director26
100% Orange Juice A Nutrient Dense BeverageExcellent Source:Phytonutrients:Vitamin CCalcium, Vitamin D (fortified)Flavonoids Hesperidin – unique to citrus NaringeninGood SourcePotassiumFolateThiaminVitamin B6Lesser Amounts ( 10% DailyValue):MagnesiumRiboflavinNiacinVitamin ACarotenoids Beta-carotene Alpha-carotene Beta-cryptoxanthin Lutein Zeaxanthin8 oz.serving27
Research Supporting 100% OJ Heart Health Higher diet quality andincreased levels of key nutrients Brain Health No Association with Weight Gain Blood Sugar Hydration and rehydration afterworkouts28
Bioactives: PolyphenolsPolyphenols are associated withbenefits seen with cocoa/chocolate, red wine, green tea,grape seeds and skinHesperidin plays a valuable role in theoverall benefits of 100% orange juiceand may play a positive role in: Antioxidant activitiesAnti-inflammatory processesHeart and vascular healthGlucose metabolismCognitionOJ is the only commonly consumed food that is a SIGNIFICANTSOURCE OF HESPERIDIN
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CITRUSCommunicating the ResearchSamantha LaneGlobal Marketing Director30
2018-2019 Methods to Reach ConsumersWebsiteSocial ed Media31
OJ Nutrition Website: Floridajuice.com32
Nutrition Website: Weight Management33
Sep 12, 2019 · NFC –%Chg in Share of Volume Sales by Activity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% NO PROMO FEATURES ONLY DISPLAY ONLY FEATURES & DISPLAY PRICE REDUCTION 11oz 1
Virgin Pina Colada Virgin Mojito (Lime Juice, Mint Leaves, Brown Sugar) Virgin Mary (Tomato Juice, Tabasco, Celery Stick) Ocean Surfer Froster (Pineapple Juice, Orange Juice, Strawberry Juice, Kiwi) Berry Sweetheart (Cranberry Juice, Apple Juice, Honey, Cherries) Mystic Falls (Cranberry Juice, Apple Juice, Grapefruit Juice) Virgin on the Beach
Kellogg's Sugar Frosted Flakes Post Alpha-Bits Quaker Cap'n Crunch peaches pears grapefruit banana banana banana apple, red delicious apple, mcintosh apple, yellow delicious pear, red/green anjou orange, navel peach/nectarine orange juice - 100% orange juice - 100% orange juice - 100% cranberry-apple juice grape juice pineapple-grapefruit juice
Following are some tasty juice combinations you may wish to try: 5 oz. carrot juice with 3 oz. celery juice - for improved flavor, process a small amount of ginger (1/2" diameter x 1/2" long) or add a few drops of lemon juice. 4 oz. carrot juice with 4 oz. apple juice 6 oz. carrot juice with 2 oz. cabbage juice
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We get orange juice delivered to our door with the milk, on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. We get one pint of milk one carton of orange juice. So, one Monday morning I go out there and there's one pint of milk and no orange. 3. The narrator doesn't get the orange juice delivered. What reasons can you think of to explain why there is no .
Vanilla Ice-cream, Milk, Banana 35 Cookie Milk Shake Chocolate Ice-cream, Milk, Cookies 35 MOCKTAILS Cranberry Chill Cranberry Juice, Pineapple Juice, Orange Juice, Ginger Ale 45 Virgin Mojito Mint, Sprite, Lime Juice 45 Fruits Mocktail Mango Juice, Pineapple Juice, Orange Ju
Packaged orange juice is made from frozen orange juice concentrate (see Box 3 on 'fresh' juice). 72% of this commodity comes from Brazil1 and the process of growing, harvesting, extracting, concentrating and freezing takes place there. A total of 420,000 people work in the Brazilian orange juice industry. Nearly 80% of these are seasonal
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