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EDHEC-Risk Institute393-400 promenade des Anglais06202 Nice Cedex 3Tel.: 33 (0)4 93 18 32 53E-mail: research@edhec-risk.comWeb: www.edhec-risk.comForce-fitting CDS Spreadsto CDS Index SwapsApril 2011Dominic O’KaneProfessor of Finance, Edhec Business School

AbstractIssues of contemporaneity, liquidity, different restructuring clauses and market supply anddemand, all contribute to the fact that the market quoted term structure of CDS index spreadsdoes not always agree with the term structure of CDS index spreads implied by the CDS termstructures of the constituent credits. This can cause problems for those who wish to calibrateno-arbitrage pricing models in order to price and hedge index derivatives. This is true even if bidoffer spreads prevent the arbitrage from being tradeable. This problem is especially relevant forsingle tranche index derivatives where the model must calibrate to the index tranche prices butthe output hedges are expressed in terms of single-name CDS. This paper presents an approachwhich can be used to overcome this problem which is simple, intuitive and fast.Keywords: CDS Indices, CDO, Synthetic Tranche, Numerical methods.The author would like to thank Lutz Schloegl for his comments on an earlier version of this paper.Helpful comments from two anonymous referees are also acknowledged.EDHEC is one of the top five business schools in France. Its reputation is built on the high qualityof its faculty and the privileged relationship with professionals that the school has cultivatedsince its establishment in 1906. EDHEC Business School has decided to draw on its extensiveknowledge of the professional environment and has therefore focused its research on themes thatsatisfy the needs of professionals.2EDHEC pursues an active research policy in the field of finance. EDHEC-Risk Institute carries outnumerous research programmes in the areas of asset allocation and risk management in both thetraditional and alternative investment universes.Copyright 2011 EDHEC

Credit default swap (CDS) portfolio indices make it fast, easy and relatively inexpensive for creditmarket participants to assume or hedge an exposure to an index of typically 125 individualcredits. Their high liquidity has also meant that they have become the underlying for a numberof advanced credit derivative structures, including index options and single tranche CDOs.In the case of single-tranche CDOs, whose pricing is discussed in Hull and White [2004], it is notpossible to hedge the single-name risk using the indices. This is because the sensitivity of thevalue of the single tranche CDO to a particular credit, known as its delta, depends on the CDSspread curve of that credit name and the degree of default correlation it has with other credits inthe index as shown in Greenberg and Schloegl [2003]. As a result, different credits have differentdeltas, and hedging with an index of equally weighted credits does not work. Instead, dealershedge the credit specific risks of single-tranche CDO using single-name CDS contracts.However, care must be taken since there is a theoretical link between the index spreads and theindividual CDS spreads. Since the protection leg of a CDS index can be exactly replicated by theprotection legs of a portfolio of underlying CDS, no-arbitrage considerations require that theexpected present value of the index upfront payment plus subsequent spread payments mustequal the total expected present value of the premium legs of the underlying CDS.In practice, the higher liquidity, more frequent quotation and differences in convention that mayexist between the index and single-name CDS market mean that these no-arbitrage requirements arenot always obeyed exactly. This can cause problems since trading desk analytics for single-trancheCDOs will attempt to calibrate to the single-tranche CDO market quotes which are at an index levelusing a model which captures the individual spread curves of the credits in the reference portfolio.Such a model will fail if the expected loss of the reference portfolio implied by the index spreadsis not consistent with the expected loss of the reference portfolio implied by the individual CDSspreads at different maturity points. The most liquid maturity points are at 3, 5, 7 and 10 years. Oneway to overcome this problem is to force-fit the CDS spreads. By this we mean that we assume thatthe index spreads, with their higher liquidity, are correct, and we then adjust the individual nameCDS curves to conform to the no-arbitrage relationship. There are a number of ways of doing thisand in this paper we present an approach which is simple, intuitive and computationally efficient.The arbitrages which we are attempting to eliminate here are theoretical arbitrages - we definea theoretical arbitrage as one which assumes a bid-offer spread of zero. Whether or not they aretradeable arbitrages depends on the size of the bid-offer spread in the CDS index market and thesingle-name CDS market. These are currently about 1 basis point for the index swaps but can bemuch wider for single-name credits. For example, Citibank was trading at 155/168bp, a bid-offerspread of 13bp in January 2010. Due to the wide bid-offer spreads found in the market we findthat the arbitrages are usually not tradeable. However they are certainly large enough to createproblems when it comes to calibrating and pricing single-tranche index derivatives.The structure of this paper is as follows. We first introduce the CDS index and then set out avaluation approach for both single-name CDS and the CDS index. We show how we can usethis to determine the no-arbitrage relationship. We then describe reasons for the existence ofthe basis between the index and underlying CDS. After this we describe the mathematics of theadjustment methodology and we propose three algorithms. We then test these algorithms usinga real-world example.The CDS IndexA CDS index is an over-the-counter bilateral contract. The “buyer” of the CDS index is a buyer1of credit risk (and a seller of protection) who receives the coupon but takes losses if there are1 - This reverses the convention used in the single-name CDS market which is to consider a “buyer” to be a buyer of protection rather than a buyer of credit risk. It reflects the fact that the single-nameCDS market is primarily a market used by banks to hedge their loan book credit risk, so buying a contract means buying protection. However, the CDS index market is an investor-driven market in whichinvestors seek to take exposure to a diversified portfolio of credits, so “buying an index” means assuming credit risk in order to get paid a coupon.3

defaults in the index portfolio. The “seller” of the CDS index has shorted the credit index (andbought protection) and has the opposite position. The index value is therefore quoted as the cashamount paid by an index buyer (protection seller) to enter into a CDS contract.The most liquid CDS portfolio indices are the investment grade indices of iTraxx and CDX. Eachcontains 125 investment grade reference credits chosen to represent the most liquid investmentgrade credits satisfying the index criteria. For iTraxx, these require that all the issuers in the indexare domiciled in Europe. For CDX, these require that the 125 credits are all domiciled in NorthAmerica. Both the CDX and the iTraxx families of indices follow the same rules in terms of howthey work and can therefore be treated within the same modelling framework.CDS indices are issued semi-annually, each with a series number to denote when it was issued,and a coupon which is fixed for the lifetime of that series. For the investment grade iTraxx andCDX indices, the issue dates are the 20th March and 20th September. Indices are issued withnominal maturities of 3, 5, 7 and 10 years. Each series of an index will share the same underlyinglist of reference credits. Care must be taken to note that the so-called 3, 5, 7 and 10 year indicesdo not have exactly 3, 5, 7 or 10 years to maturity on their issue date. At issuance the time tomaturity of a T-year index is typically T 3 months, declining to T-3 months when the next indexis issued and it is no longer on-the-run. For example, a 5-year iTraxx index issued on the 20thMarch 2009 matures on the 20th June 2014 and so has 63 months to maturity on the issue date.Mechanics of single-name CDSUnlike CDS indices, which are issued semi-annually, single-name CDS contracts are issued quarterly.Depending upon when it was traded, a T-year CDS contract will mature on whichever of the fourstandard maturity dates2 that follows the T-year anniversary of the initial trade date. For example,a 5-year CDS contract traded on the 16th March 2009 matures on the 20th March 2014, while onetraded 10 days later on the 26th March 2009 matures on the 20th June 2014.Prior to 2009, the coupon of a CDS contract was set at contract initiation in order to ensure thatthe initial value of the CDS contract was equal to zero. However, in early 2009, the InternationalSwaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) began the “recouponing” of North American CDS aspart of the “Big Bang” revision of the CDS market. This change in market convention was intendedto facilitate the process of contract netting within the CDS market and so reduce the risk of asystemic contagion event due to counterparty risk. This change was also intended to facilitatethe centralised clearing of CDS contracts.Prior to this recouponing, a purchase of CDS protection by party A from party B followed bya later sale of CDS protection by party A to the same party B to the same contract maturitydate resulted in a risky annuity with a cash flow equal to the difference in the value of thecoupons.3 This stream of coupons was exposed to the risk of default since it terminated eitherat default or contract maturity, whichever occurred first. However the main disadvantage of theongoing annuity was that the two offsetting positions would continue to sit on the books of thecounterparties to these two contracts until default or contract maturity, exposing each party tothe other parties’ counterparty risk. Furthermore, if these trades were cleared via a centralisedclearing house, the ongoing existence of these payment legs would require the warehousing ofmany tens of thousands of offsetting contracts and the administration of all of the contractualannuity payments. The technological, administrative and operational burden associated with thiswould have been significant.To avoid this problem, the mechanics of the standard CDS were amended. By fixing the couponon all contracts linked to each issuer, the offsetting sale of CDS protection occurs at the exact42 - These are the 20th March, 20th June, 20th September and 20th December. If these dates fall on weekends or holidays, then any scheduled payments will roll to the next business day.3 - For simplicity we consider a purchase and sale of protection between the same counterparties A and B. In practice the offsetting transaction may be done with a third counterparty.

same coupon as the earlier purchase of protection and consequently the net cash flows on theresulting annuity will be zero. As a result, both offsetting contracts can be terminated. However,the fixing of the coupon means that a new contract can no longer have zero initial cost4 and sothere must be an initial upfront exchange of cash.The recouponing of legacy contracts took place in Europe and the US during 2009 and themechanics of the recouponing are discussed in the Appendix. The coupon assigned to the CDScontracts of each issuer depends on its credit quality5 and its region of domicile.6 For this reason,we assume that each CDS contract pays an issuer-specific coupon Cm.Mechanics of a CDS indexTo determine the value of a standard T-maturity CDS index, we need to know what payments aremade, under what conditions, and when. Exhibit 1 shows the payment mechanics of a typicalCDS index. The contract is entered into on trade date t and is cash settled 3 days later. On thisdate, the buyer of the index contract (seller of protection) makes an upfront payment to theseller of the index contract (buyer of protection) given by UI (t,T).On the issue date of an index, this value is typically close to zero. This is because at inception, theindex coupon CI (T) is set close to the fair-value spread of the index. It is not set exactly equalto the fair-value spread as the index coupon is usually chosen to be a round multiple of 5bp.Following the issue of the index, the upfront value of the index, UI (t,T), can become positive ornegative, depending on the evolution of the index spread.Following settlement, the index buyer has a contract which pays the index coupon. This is usuallypaid quarterly according to an Actual/360 basis convention. This is the same as the standard CDSpremium leg convention. If there are no credit events on the underlying portfolio, then the samecoupon (ignoring variations in the day count fraction) is paid until the contract matures at timeT. However, if there is a credit event, and assuming that the portfolio consists of M credits, whathappens is:1. The index buyer pays 1/M of the face value of the contract to the seller in return for deliveryof a defaulted asset also on 1/M of the contract notional. In practice an ISDA auction is used todetermine a cash settlement price for the recovery value of the credit in the CDS index whichexperienced a credit event.2. The index buyer receives the fraction of coupon which has accrued from the previous coupondate on the defaulted credit.3. The notional of the contract is reduced by a factor of 1/M . As a result, the absoluteamount of index coupon received on the premium leg is reduced.Exhibit 1: The mechanics of a CDS index. We show the cash flows on a CDS index of M credits with a face value of 1 which is initiated attime t and settles at time tS . The index coupon is C and the upward arrows denote the incoming payments for a protection seller. We showa scenario in which there are two defaults in the index at times τ1 and τ2. Following each default, there is a contingent payment from theprotection seller to the protection buyer and a reduction in the notional on which the index coupon is paid.4 - Except if by chance the fixed coupon exactly equals the CDS spread.5 - The reason for assigning different coupons is to keep the initial entry cost of the contract close to zero. For example, a sale of protection on a AA-rated credit with a fixed coupon of 500bp would havea large up-front cost as 500bp is not commensurate with its risk. A coupon of 50 or 100bp would be more appropriate.6 - The standard for North American corporate-linked CDS is to have fixed coupons of either 100bp or 500bp. The standard for European corporate-linked CDS is to have a coupon of one of 25, 100, 300,500, 750 or 1000bps.5

Exhibit 1 shows what happens if there are two credit events over the life of a portfolio index.Inboth cases we show the default loss and the payment of the accrued coupon at default. We alsoshow how a default reduces the size of the subsequent coupon payments.Spread Quotation Conventions and NotationThe recouponing of CDS contracts has made them mechanically more similar to CDS indices asall contracts linked to the same reference credit now have the same fixed coupon Cm. IndividualCDS contracts are also now being quoted using the same conventions as CDS indices. The mostdirect quotation convention is simply the upfront price paid by a protection seller to enter intoa T-maturity CDS contract on reference credit m which is given by Um (t, T) . While this is theactual value of the contract, market participants prefer to use a spread-based measure to quoteprices since it makes it easier to compare the pricing of contracts at different maturities andto compare the pricing of CDS contracts on different issuers which may have different fixedcoupons.Exhibit 2: A list of the notation used with descriptions.6

There are two different spread measures. The first is the par spread Sm (t, T). This is the spread thathas been traditionally used in the CDS market prior to recouponing as it used to represent thecoupon paid by a newly traded CDS contract with an initial value of zero. Although the contractno longer works like this, this spread measure is still calculated and used for quotation. By itselfit is not sufficient to recover the upfront value Um (t, T) of a contract since this is a function ofthe full term structure of par spreads to time T. Using this spread measure, the upfront value ofa CDS contract is given byEquation (1)where the annuity term Am (t, T) is defined as the expected present value of a 1 annuity paidon the premium (coupon) leg of the CDS contract taking into account that the coupon paymentsstop at a credit event or contract maturity, whichever occurs sooner. It is a function of the entireterm structure of CDS par spreads out to maturity time T and the issuer expected recovery rateRm. Given an upfront value, a knowledge of the CDS par spread and the CDS coupon, the marketvalue of Am (t, T) can be implied out from equation (1). If we are given just a term structure ofCDS spreads then it must be calculated using a CDS valuation model (see equation 5). This is defined as the level at whichThe second spread measure is the flat par spreada flat CDS curve used with the standard CDS valuation model would reprice the contract to itsmarket quoted upfront value Um (t, T) . The advantage of this spread is that it permits a one-toone mapping between price and spread. However, the cost of doing this is that we must ignorethe shape of the term structure of spreads in exactly the same way that a bond yield-to-maturityignores the shape of the yield curve. Formally, the upfront value of a CDS contract is given byEquation (2)where the annuity term is different to the one in equation 2 since it assumes a flat spread curve,.i.e. it is only a function ofA model is needed to determine the value of the annuity term in both cases. This standard CDSvaluation model was set out in O’Kane and Turnbull [2003] and is now provided formally by theISDA.7 To clarify these different quotation conventions, a list of notation and a correspondingdescription is provided in Exhibit 2.The Market Quoted Value of a CDS IndexCDS indices are quoted using the index flat par spread. The relationship between the indexis given bycoupon CI (T), upfront index value UI (t, T) and the index flat par spreadEquation (3)whereis the index risky annuity which is calculated using the standard CDS valuationand an assumption about the index expectedmodel with a flat spread curve at a spreadrecovery rate RI. The value of this recovery rate is set according to market convention which iscurrently 40% for the investment grade CDS indices CDX and iTraxx.Exhibit 3 shows the maturity date, coupon, index spread and upfront value of the 3, 5, 7 and10-year maturity issues of series 13 of the North American CDX investment grade index. This isthe “on-the-run” series of this index in January 2010. The index spread is defined as the level ofthe flat spread curve at which the index, valued as a CDS contract, would re-price the upfront. If the index spread is greater thanvalue of the index. According to our notation, it isthe actual fixed coupon on the index, as it is in the case of the 10-year index, then the index hasa negative upfront value UI (t, T) from the perspective of an index buyer. As a result, an investorwho wishes to buy the 10-year index today would actually receive a cash payment equal to0.40% of the index face value.77 - See www.cdsmodel.com for the source code of the standard CDS valuation model.

Exhibit 3: The term structure of quotes for the CDX NA IG series 13 investment grade indices as of January 4th 2010. The coupon is thecontractual coupon on the premium leg of the CDS index while the index spread is the market quoted flat par spread. The upfront cost isthe initial payment which must be made by a protection seller to enter into the respective CDS index contract. The relationship between thecoupon, index spread and upfront cost is given in equation 3. Source: MarkitThe Intrinsic Value of a CDS IndexAt time t, an investor buys (sells protection) on a CDS index with maturity time T. The contractpays the investor a fixed coupon which we denote with CI (T). To enter into this contract, theinvestor has to make an initial upfront payment of UI (t, T) which may be positive or negative.This is the quoted market value of the index.We now introduce another value for the index. This is the intrinsic value of the index based onthe underlying constituent CDS spread curves. We denote it with VI (t, T). If VI (t, T) UI (t, T) thenthe intrinsic value calculated from the underlying CDS equals the upfront value quoted in themarket and there is no arbitrage. If VI (t, T). If VI (t, T) UI(t, T) there is a theoretical arbitrage.8To determine the intrinsic value of the CDS index in terms of the CDS spreads, we consider theprotection and premium (coupon) legs separately. Until this point, the entire discussion has beenmodel-independent and based on no-arbitrage relationships. However, the calculation of theintrinsic value of a CDS index will require us to make use of a specific pricing model and for thiswe use the market standard valuation model.Protection LegWe index the M reference credits in the CDS index with m 1, ,M. The default of a reference creditm at time τm results in an immediate loss of (1—Rm(τm)) to the index buyer. We can thereforewrite the expected present value of the protection leg of the index at valuation time t aswhere 1τ T if τ T and zero otherwise. The expectation is taken in the risk-neutral measure. Weassume independence between the default time, interest rates and recovery rate for each creditin the index. We can then write the value of the protection leg in terms of the reference entitysurvival curve Qm(t, T) and the Libor discount factor Z t, T) as followsEquation (4)and Rm is the expected recovery rate of credit m at default, i.e. CDS contracts on a specific credit m with a fixed coupon Cm have an initialupfront value Um (t, T). According to the standard CDS valuation model, this is given bywhere.The first term is the present value of the coupon payment leg. This is given by the fixed couponmultiplied by the risky annuity Am (t, T). This is the value of an annualised payment of 1 paid onthe coupon leg. Including the effects of the accrued coupon paid following a credit event, this88 - Note that all input prices used in pricing models for calibration are mid-prices. Adjustments for bid or offer side pricing are made to the output price by the trader.

has been shown by O’Kane [2008] to be very well approximated by. Equation (5)The index n enumerates the coupon payment dates between today and contract maturity and nis the accrual factor for the period tn-1 to tn in the market standard Actual/360 basis.The CDS par spreads Sm (t, T) m are defined as the coupon on a T-maturity CDS on reference creditm which would make the initial CDS value equal zero, i.e.Equation (6)Substituting this into equation (4) allows us to write the present value of the index protection interms of the individual name par spreads and risky annuitiesEquation (7)Premium (Coupon) LegEach credit event in the CDS index portfolio results in a reduction in the contractual notional onwhich the coupon is paid by a factor of 1/M. The value of the CDS index premium leg is thereforea sum over the reference credits and payment dates, with a payment only being made if it occursbefore the default time, to giveAssuming independence of the default time and interest rate process for each credit we can writethis as the discounted coupons weighted by their corresponding survival probabilityTo fully model the premium leg we also need to add on the payment of the fraction of theaccrued premium which is paid at default. We can then write the index premium leg value as asum of all M premium legs of the individual CDS with all of them paying the same contractualcoupon CI(T).Equation (8)where Am(t, T) m is the risky annuity term defined in terms of the issuer survival probability curveequation 5.The Intrinsic ValueThe intrinsic value at time t of a long position in the index swap is the present value of thepremium leg minus the present value of the protection leg. This is given by.Equation (9)For reasons discussed in the following section, this may not be the same as the market quotedindex upfront value UI(t, T). No-arbitrage requires that this intrinsic value VI(t, T) equal UI(t, T),the upfront value of the index. Since the upfront value of the index is determined as though itwere a CDS with a flat curve at the index spread, no-arbitrage requires the following relationshipbetween the market quoted index upfront, the CDS spreads and the index flat par spread9

Equation (10)However, for reasons discussed in the next section this relationship may not be observed inpractice.The CDS-Index BasisThe CDS-Index basis is the observed difference between the market quoted index spread and theimplied spread given by the CDS term structures of the constituent credits in the index.The theoretical relationship was set out in Equation 10. In practice, this relationship can breakdown for a number of reasons:1. First is the issue of restructuring clauses. In the case of the North American CDX index, thepayment of protection on the index protection leg is only triggered when the credit event isa bankruptcy or failure to pay. Restructuring is not included as a credit event and this type ofcontract is therefore known as a No-Re contract. However the market standard for single-nameCDS contracts in the US has been based on the use of the Mod-Re restructuring clause in whichrestructuring is included as a credit event (note that this changed in mid-2009 when the marketswitched to using No-Re as the standard CDS convention). The designation Mod-Re refers to thefact that there are certain restrictions on what can be delivered by the protection buyer in orderto settle a CDS contract following a restructuring credit event. Since Mod-Re contracts includean additional credit event trigger, they trade at a wider spread to No-Re CDS contracts. We findthat where both trade, the No-Re spreads are typically about 5-10% lower than Mod-Re spreads.This creates an immediate basis between market quoted single-name CDS spreads and the CDSindex spread. In Europe this issue is less important as both CDS indices and the underlying singlename CDS contracts trade according to the same Modified-Modified restructuring convention.2. Mid-market spreads may also violate Equation 10 for market technical reasons. For example,the CDS index tends to be the preferred instrument used by market participants to express achanging view on the credit market as a whole. As a result, the CDS index may be considered tolead the CDS market wider (tighter) in times of negative (positive) news which do not relate to aspecific credit. This market technical can drive apart the theoretical relationship in Equation 10.3. Another reason for why Equation 10 is not always obeyed by market prices is that it is basedon mid-market spreads. The CDS index market is extremely liquid and presents bid-offer spreadsof less than 1 basis point in the investment grade indices, rising to a few basis points for theless liquid indices such as CDX high-yield. By contrast, CDS spreads are much less liquid and maytrade with bid-offer spreads equal to between 5% and 10% of the spread. Assuming an averagebid-offer spread of 10 basis points, the index spread and the intrinsic mid-market spreads wouldneed to differ by more than this in order for an arbitrage to be tradable, and this is unlikely. Theposition would also have to be held to maturity to avoid re-crossing the bid-offer spread. If suchan opportunity did appear, trades would be placed by dealers or hedge funds which would pushany mis-pricing back inside these bid-offer limits.There are two approaches to ensuring that Equation 10 is obeyed. The first is to start by adjustingfor the fact that the CDX index is No-Re while the single name CDS are quoted Mod-Re. We thenadjust a second time for no-arbitrage using one of the methods described subsequently. Thesecond way is to simply correct for both the restructuring clause and the theoretical arbitrage inone adjustment. This is the approach used subsequently.The Portfolio Swap Adjustment10One way to ensure that the index swap spread equals the intrinsic swap spread is to adjust theindividual CDS curves in such a way that the adjusted CDS spreads obey Equation 10. The exact

nature of the adjustment is somewhat subjective and arbitrary. However, there are some desirableproperties we would like the adjustment to possess:1. We would prefer a proportional adjustment of the spread since this seems more realistic whenapplied across the broad range of spread levels found in an index. It does present the downsidethat it can change the slope of the CDS curve – while a flat curve remains flat, an upwardsloped curve can become flatter or steeper if the adjustment factor is less than or greater thanone. However, we believe that it is preferable to an additive adjustment which may require anarrowing of all the spreads in the index by the same amount and this can cause the spreads ofhigh quality credits to go negative which is not permitted.2. We require that the proportional adjustment does not induce any arbitrage effects. For example,it should ensure that each adjusted issuer survival curve Qm (t, T) remains a monotonicallydecreasing function of T.3. Speed is another very important consideration. This is because the adjustment of CDSspread curves to agree with CDS index market quotes is an essential pre-processing step to thepricing and risk-management of all index-based correlation

Prior to 2009, the coupon of a cdS contract was set at contract initiation in order to ensure that the initial value of the cdS contract was equal to zero. however, in early 2009, the International Swaps and derivatives Association (ISdA) began the “recouponing” of North American cdS as part of the “Big Bang” revision of the cdS market.

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