The Northern Economic Powerhouse - Deloitte
The NorthernEconomicPowerhouseBE Lobby PaperDecember 2014BE Lobby Report1
The Importanceof the NorthPrefaceLed by the city regions of Leeds, Liverpool,Manchester, Newcastle and Sheffield, theNorthern Economic Powerhouse reflects thecritical importance of transport for sustainableeconomic growth across the North. Alreadythe Chancellor has identified the need fora new strategic approach to connect citiesto drive growth, including the principle ofa northern East-West high speed rail link.The 15m population of the North is larger than London but it has beenrecognised that our economy is trailing behind. Our ambition is for theNorth to be a dynamic counterweight and complement to the London andSouth-East economy, as well as a destination of choice for investors, helpingrebalance and grow the national economy in the decades ahead.Transport, for freight and people, is central to the ambition. Just as thetransport networks in London are fundamental for their economic success,transport is fundamental for the North. But we are finding journey timesacross the North are much slower, service frequencies are lower and theinterconnectivity of our transport networks is much weaker.Therefore, we are calling for transport connectivityacross the North to change.BE Lobby Report3
The Challenge 10 to 15bnInvestment in GreaterManchester transport system15%Increase in passenger capacityUpto50%FasterThe Northern Economic Powerhouse sets outthe proposition for transport and provides aplatform for consideration by the LEPs and bothprivate and public sector organisations across theNorth. The powerhouse plans are to work withthese organisations to develop a prioritised setof economically driven investments to deliver theambition for a transport network that supportsa strong, vibrant and more productive North ofEngland economy for the 21st century.The Built Environment Networking conferenceheld in Manchester on October 23rd 2014provided a platform for the many stakeholdersengaged with the One North plan to outlinethe potency that it would bring to regionaleconomic growth and further development ofvital infrastructure. Importantly the conferenceembraced the widest possible spectrum of activity– drawing on Hull and Humberside in the east,Tyneside to the north, Liverpool and Merseysideto the west and the more central conurbationsof Greater Manchester, Leeds/Bradford and theSheffield City Region, a tandem a very powerfulcollection of communities and business.The challenge laid out in the preface to theconference recognised that there is a needfor a new strategic approach to connectingcities, so that we can drive growth andoutline the idea of new, improved publictransport links for the Northern city areas.The economic benefits to making Governmentfunding available are notable. For example workhas been undertaken that suggests that if weinvest 10-15bn into the Greater ManchesterTransport system then this will not only increaseour passenger capacity by up to 150%,improving reliability, but will make travel 33-50%faster for commuters.Connectivity and capacity between the northern citiesneed to undergo transformational change. To becomean economic powerhouse the North requires:The vision for the transport is clearly ‘multimodal’ both for logistics and for personal travel.Whilst therefore the dominant means of traveltoday is by road, the highway network cannotmeet the burden of expected growth as extracapacity needs to be added elsewhere. The railnetwork is extensive across the North, yet it failsto offer a sense of a joined up network (in theway that London Underground does).A multi – modal investment model will thereforeensure that the North’s economy will becomemore productive, more competitive and moreefficient as it competes in global markets. Wewould be playing to its strengths, helped by theeconomies of scale that come from a balanced,transformed interconnected network.It will improve economic benefits, as it isproven that better connectivity means improvedjourney time reliability, better travel qualityand shorter journeys that will widen andstrengthen the North’s labour markets andimprove business efficiency. ptimisation of strategic highway capacity for both freight and personalOtravel through extended managed motorways and addressing strategicgaps in the road network (including links to ports), with a particularemphasis on improving reliability for freight and business. very high quality (fast and frequent) intercity rail network joining theAcentres of the city regions. It will deliver direct, fast and frequent accessto Manchester Airport for all the North’s city regions to help northernbusinesses access global markets. ity region rail networks that provide the additional capacity neededCto sustain city centre growth. These will be interconnected with HS2services, new intercity services, metro/tram services and with muchexpanded park and ride facilities. They will combine the need to connectinto city region hubs with new direct cross-city services. ‘digital’ infrastructure that offers consumers and businesses full realAtime information systems and improved ticketing options, provides greaternetwork resilience and reliability, more capacity for growth and muchfaster connections between key centres. ood access that enables the efficient and timely movement of largeGquantities of freight by rail, road and water covering not only ports, raillinks and large distribution centres but also light commercial vehicles andairports for premium logistics. T he new TransPennine route could also deliver a new integrated EastWest rail freight capability, linking the major port estuaries and NorthSouth rail routes.In more detail the conference heard about plans for eachof the sectors, notably:4The Northern Economic PowerhouseBE Lobby Report5
RoadWhat is proposed?Benefits it could bring? A managed motorway concept – smart trafficmanagement that will reduce congestion andconsequently speed up journey times. The key benefit that could be realisedthrough the One North strategy is a closerworking relationship between the HighwaysAgency and local level strategic economicinvestment planning. New approaches to non-motorway strategiclinks with new supporting investment.Why is it needed? Continued increases in congestion areleading to extended journey times and lessreliable journeys which have an effect on theeconomy. The Head of the Highways agency hassuggested that with the expected growthrate of tragic we may need to get used to thespeeds declining with 40mph becoming thenew normal.Rail Northern interconnectivity at present is verydependent on the M62 in particular acrossthe Pennines. There is inevitably a limit to itscapacity and the resilience of all the TransPennine routes at times of serve adverseweather is an issue.Why is it needed? Britain’s population is expected to swell by10 million over the next 25 years. Even withconservative rail demand forecasts (1.5% to2% per year) would lead to many intercityroutes being overcrowded in 10 years. A survey in 2012 found that:1) 84% of businesses stated that quality andreliability of transport infrastructureweigh significantly in investment decisions.2) 61% are concerned that the UK’stransport infrastructure lags behindinternational competitors.3) 64% expect HS2 to have a positive impactof UK private sector growth. Integrated rail planning will provide theopportunity to rebuild and rebalancethe UK economy. High Speed Rail 2 alone will deliver around 2of benefits for every 1 invested. We cannot expect the existing motorwaynetwork to bear the brunt of the expecteddemand in growth. By connecting all the cities it will enable themto work, trade and most importantly competeas one economic powerhouse. With the correct investment local arearoute strategy plans could be used as a wayof helping local strategic economic plansreach their full potential. For example in theGreater Manchester Growth Plan it asked fora more collaborative arrangement with theDepartment for Transport. This is where theHighways Agency can really commit to havinglocal road strategy plans that can supportlocal economic growth. Through the use of local economicinvestment plans as a vehicle for investmentin road infrastructure, economic growth andenhanced interconnectivity can be achievedacross all the North regions. Completion of long standing gaps in strategiclinks such as the Sheffield - Manchester corridorwill also be tested and brought forward, ifdeliverable in economic terms. Wider benefits will follow from releasing thecapacity on existing lines such as freight. Having better rail connectivity between thenorthern cities will help them to competeeconomically as one rather than individuals. All regions will benefit from the investmentin High Speed Rail but the North will doparticularly well, In Greater Manchester aloneit is predicted that rail investment couldsee productivity per year increase up to 1.3bn a year or 1.7% of its regionaleconomic output. Over the NorthernPowerhouse cities a 5.4bn increase ofproductivity per year could be achieved.6The Northern Economic PowerhouseBE Lobby Report7
AirWhat is proposed?Why is it needed? Investment in landside business space atthe major regional airports, for example,Manchester and Newcastle. The North is well provided with growingregional airports such as Newcastle, Liverpooland Leeds Bradford. They provide goodservices into Europe and domestically. Greater levels of route developmentto international markets. Better connectivity via rail and metrolink to airports from city centres andvia mainline routes.Benefits it could bring? Manchester airport needs to be driven upin the international league table so that itincreasingly meets the needs of northernbusiness without the need to interchangeat other international airports. There is however an issue in relation to longhaul connectivity to key international marketswith only Manchester capable of fulfillingthis role. The majority of passengers arriving atManchester airport do so by car, which is amajor strategic issue with the M56 forecastto be close to capacity by 2015. Journeytimes and frequencies by rail to Manchesterairport are poor, 3 hours from Newcastleand 2 hours 30 from Hull. With the vision ofgrowing the capacity of Manchester airportit will increasingly become constrained bythe road and network capacity and so thereis a need for enhanced rail connectivity (inparticular the East-West route), light railwayconnectivity and direct cross city services tothe North’s Principle Airport. Manchester Airport is growing passengernumbers (now over 20 million again) androute connectivity. The Manchester AirportMaster plan 2030 recognises that surfaceaccess plays a crucial role in spreading theeconomic benefit across the wider NorthWest. This surface access needs to bebroadened to address the whole of theNorth. This needs to be achieved in orderto help create the demand for more directflights to destinations across the globe.8The Northern Economic PowerhouseBE Lobby Report Having an globally competitive airport willensure that people and goods can get towherever they need to get to, whenever theyneed to get there, at the right price. In addition it will create a real opportunityfor landside international investment atManchester Airport City – the largest realestate project likely to come forward in thenorth of the country over the next decade. Improving connectivity to and from otherregional airports should also form part ofthe One North plan. They are an importantcomponent of the overall transport offeracross the north.9
Saving of 400 percontainerPortsWhat is proposed?Why is it needed? The link between the Humber ports and therest of UK is critical – it is a major hub forbulk cargos, pharmaceuticals and offshore,worth over 26bn to the national economyevery year. Links to and from Humberside aresub - standard.Better transport access to ports. Growth in trade from the major northernports into the business marketplace.Benefits it could bring? Tyneside and Teeside ports are also hugelyimportant in terms of the services theyoffer to the northern business community,both require further investment in transportinfrastructure to increase competitiveness. The ports are of particular importance tomany economic sectors in North. Kellogg’sfactory in Manchester receives its entire rawproduct through the ports in Liverpool andthe Humber ports handle 42% of the totalcoal imports in the UK. The Humber is the largest trading estuaryin the UK (by tonnage) and the secondnationally for handling roll on roll off freight(wheeled cargo). There are 170 shipping linesat this port which provide exceptional logisticlinks to global markets. This highlights how crucial the ports are ineconomic terms for Northern companies andthe North as a whole and why they must beincorporated into the Northern Powerhousemulti modal model. The development of Liverpool SuperPortplans which will bring with a post panamaxcapacity and the potential for rapidexpansion, particularly in containerised goods The ports are one crucial element whichis normally overlooked but they offer hugepotential in helping the North becomean economic powerhouse. With the correctinvestment the supply chain could beradically transformed. The biggest benefit that can come fromthe right investment in ports is the moreefficient and cost effective distributionnetworks for business. Liverpool 2 provides distributers in theNorth a more competitive option. Beforeit was built the closest port for a companyin Trafford Park would be in Southampton,225 miles away. But with Liverpool 2 only 38miles away it can provide a saving of 400 acontainer on road and 150 per container onrail. This is a saving equivalent of 20/tonneof product. Investment will underpin the North’s ability tobe the supply chain hub for the UK.10The Northern Economic PowerhouseBE Lobby Report11
SummaryThere are important changestaking place across the North’stransport networks, and they willbring much-needed and welcomebenefits. But they will still leaveidentifiable gaps in the strategicnetworks and elsewhere.The key argument that we haveis that there is an opportunity forthe North to become a strongereconomic zone.HS2 will bring a huge connectivity benefit forthe North and its connections with the Midlandsand London, but we need to improve ourinner cities’ links first. Evidence points to poorinterconnectivity between the cities of the North,and the gains that HS2 can bring would bedoubled if this weakness is put right.What we do need for each city region isa programme of city region rail servicedevelopment, helping to broaden the benefitsof HS2, characterised by new rolling stock,centred on hub stations but also allowing fordirect connections to maximise connectivitygains. The intention is that this proposition shouldcomplement individual Local Transport Plansat the city region and local level.When looking at the type of connectivityimprovements needed on both the highway andrail networks, it is the rail network where demandis growing at the fastest rate and where there isgreatest scope for transformational change.If we implement this plan of action and ourregion is granted the 10-15bn investment fromthe Government, then the output is an increasein commuting capacity for each city region tomeet the levels of growth forecasted for anexpanding economy, which means increasingpeak capacity by:However, do we need to develop a new strategicinvestment plan across all modes of transport toguide national and local investment decisions overthe next twenty years? If we progress this plan then the key element inthe proposition is a set of highway improvementscontinuing the Highways Agency programme ofprioritised investment. This will deliver key missingstrategic links, including enhanced port access.The Northern Economic PowerhouseLeeds and Manchester%Liverpool, Sheffield and Newcastle120-150% for Leeds and Manchester. 100-130% for Liverpool, Sheffield andNewcastle. Transformed journey times between the fivecity regions and therefore for the wider North.Would a new 125 mph Trans Pennine route,connected to the HS2 lines and the existingrail network, be required to link the five cityregions together with Manchester Airport andthe ports? If so, then a facility will need to beplanned for intensive use as a high-reliabilityall-weather central component in the North’stransport system.121513% A new East-West route serving ManchesterAirport, supporting its expansion and directaccess from every city in the North. A European gauge freight route across thePennines, suitable for port-based logisticsand unitised loads. This could also be usedfor Eurotunnel-style lorry shuttles.BE Lobby Report13
FinalThe Northern Economic Powerhousecollaboration shows that tackling the region’stransport system will enable the region tofulfill its economic potential – but it is essentialthe north develops its own economic model.The UK regions all have an important role toplay in driving growth for the whole of the UK,and getting the right investment in our transportsystems would better connect people and jobs,which is crucial, if we want to rebalance thenational economy.14The Northern Economic Powerhouse
Supported by Deloitte16The Northern Economic Powerhouse
4 The Northern Economic Powerhouse BE Lobby Report 5 The Northern Economic Powerhouse sets out the proposition for transport and provides a platform for consideration by the LEPs and both private and public sector organisations across the North. The powerhouse plans are to work with these organisations to develop a prioritised set
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The People’s Powerhouse puts people at the heart of the Northern Powerhouse agenda. What started on social media discussing gender imbalance at one event, soon became a focal point for many about the need to shift the focus of Northern Powerhouse discussions on physical infrastructure and economic growth. The People’s Powerhouse tapped into
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Northern Powerhouse Network Connectivity 34 7.1.6. Integration of NPR with HS2 35 7.1.7. A Vision for Northern Powerhouse Railfreight 36 7.1.8. Minimised Dependency on HS2 38 7.1.9. A Complete Vision for Northern Powerhouse Rail 39 7.1.10. Technical Excellence for the Northern Powerhouse 39
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