Forces Shaping The Future Of Food
Forces Shapingthe Future of Food124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor Palo Alto, CAwww.iftf.org 650.854.6322 SR-1255 B
About .THE INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is an independent, nonprofit research group with over40 years of forecasting experience. The core of our work is identifying emerging trendsand discontinuities that will transform global society and the global marketplace. Weprovide insights into business strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas.Our research generates the foresight needed to create insights that lead to action. Ourresearch spans a broad territory of deeply transformative trends, from health and healthcare to technology, the workplace, and human identity. The Institute for the Future islocated in Palo Alto, CA.THE GLOBAL FOOD OUTLOOK PROGRAM Food is integral to our lives, but it is about more than just sustenance and nutrition. Ourrelationship to food is intertwined with politics, economics, environmental concerns, culture, and science. At IFTF, we see these strands forming a global food web. And from foodchains to supply chains, from food markets to fuel markets, from agricultural ecologiesto wilderness ecologies—this global food web is undergoing rapid change. Our Food Web2020 program provides an analysis of the trends and drivers shaping the future of foodand food markets on a global scale.ACKNOWLEDGMENTSAuthors: Miriam Lueck Avery, Bradley Kreit, Rod FalconContributors: Jamais Cascio, Jay Dautcher, Tessa Finlev, Kathrine Hoersted,Mani Pande, David ZaksPeer Reviewer: Kathi VianArt Directors: Diana Arsenian, Jean HaganProducer: Jean HaganEditor: Lorraine AndersonProduction Editor: Lisa MumbachDesign & Production: Robin Bogott, Karen Lubeck, Jody RadzikSR-1255 B Food Web 2020 is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0.For more information, visit creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/. All other brands and trademarks are theproperty of their respective owners.
Table of ContentsList of Figures. iiiExecutive Summary. vIntroduction: The Changing Food Web. 11. Disruptions: Eight Forces Reshaping the Future of Food. 52. Innovations: Responses from Around the Globe. 173. Forecasts: Five Key Shifts in Direction. 254. Implications: Weathering the Storms . . 315. How to Use this Report: Crafting Resilient Strategies . 35Acknowledgments . . 41Endnotes . 43
List of FiguresFigure 1-1Diversifying diets in developing countries include more meat.Figure 1-2Incidence of most food-borne illnesses is declining, but public anxiety is not.Figure 1-3Sixty percent of the world’s people are dissatisfied with their weight.Figure 1-4More countries are leasing land abroad for food production.Figure 1-5Global production, prices, and undernourishment.Figure 1-6Hunger and malnourishment remain major problems for countries around the world.Figure 1-7Price volatility and political turmoil.Figure 1-8Agriculture contributes to CO2 in the atmosphere.Figure 1-9Areas likely to experience water stress in 2050 span the globe.Figure 1-10Sustainability metrics can be graphical icons or numeric life-cycle analyses.Figure 1-11Productive pastures for potential biofuel production can be found on every continent.foodweb 2 0 2 0iii
Executive SummaryFood sustains and nourishes us, and it also increasingly connects us to a global food webthat is intertwined with politics, economics, environmental concerns, culture, and science.This global food web is undergoing rapid change, presenting considerable challenges andsignificant opportunities. Every one of the six broad areas of activity in the food system—agriculture and stewardship, manufacturing and branding, distribution and logistics, retailand information, consumption and taste, and disposal and renewal—is being affected. Asthe impacts of disruptive forces are felt over the next decade, strategic responses will berequired from your organization and other stakeholders in the food system. This reportand its companion map, FoodWeb 2020, identify the forces reshaping the food web, shareexamples of innovative responses, forecast key shifts in direction, and present principles forlong-term business decision-making that will confer competitive advantage while increasingthe resilience of the food web by 2020.We identify eight disruptions that are pushing stakeholders at every level—from individualconsumers and small-scale farmers to food companies and national governments—to rethinktheir relationships to the food system. These range from new taste imperatives to growing foodfears, from new attention to health impacts to an upsurge in food rights activism, from increasing cost volatilities to cascading environmental emergencies, and from a growing demand forsustainability metrics to an expanding effort to reduce the environmental footprint of food. Wealso look at innovative responses to these disruptions that have already emerged in locationsaround the globe.We then forecast five key shifts in the food web that will present both threats and opportunities for producers and retailers at all scales. The first shift is toward greater transparencythrough labeling and through consumers developing a more personal relationship with theirfood sources. The second is toward preserving crop biodiversity by deemphasizing monocropping and standardized foods, and finding ways to offer locally differentiated products. The thirdis toward decentralizing food production and distribution as demands for safe, local, sustainable food increase. The fourth is toward improving food’s environmental footprint by incorporating flexible farming and manufacturing strategies that address resource limits and takeinto account the whole life cycle of a product. And the fifth is toward collaboration in order toimprove capacities and sustainability at both local and global scales.Finally, we discuss the resilience principles that characterize products, processes, and organizations that have staying power. It is through incorporating flexibility, diversity, decentralization,collaboration, transparency, foresight, graceful failure, and redundancy that stakeholders in thefood web can cultivate adaptation and competitive advantage—even as they embark on a journeyto ensure that the world’s food supply in 2020 will be more resilient than it is today.foodweb 2 0 2 0v
IntroductionThe Changing Food WebAs legendary American chef and food writer James Beard once observed, “Food is ourcommon ground, a universal experience.” Food sustains and nourishes us, and it alsoincreasingly connects us to a global food web that is intertwined with politics, economics,environmental concerns, culture, and science. Now as environments, technologies, andpopulations shift and evolve, this global food web is undergoing rapid change, presentingconsiderable challenges and significant opportunities. This report and its companion map,FoodWeb 2020, portray the tensions and possibilities of the food landscape to provide youwith new ways of thinking about innovative and creative responses.Forces Shaping the Future of FoodIn our research, we found that to forecast the future of food, it’s not enough simply to lookfor change across the supply chain, at the set of actors that get a food product from farm tofork. Political and economic influences affect supply chains, and thus we have to look at thecomplex relationships between food systems and natural environments, cultural environments,and globalization.The future of food will take shape in a world where biodiversity is declining, the climate ischanging, infectious diseases are spreading more widely and rapidly, and global food sourcingis raising safety and sustainability concerns. Current worldwide migration trends will createnew burdens as the rural-to-urban movement continues and population growth soars. The useof arable land for food production will compete with demand for fuel crops, while our oceansface degradation and decline in consumable marine life.In this context, governments and their citizens are redefining food security, seeing it notas access to markets but as the ability to produce food—a shift that could help reinvigorateregional food production. Water- and energy-supply issues are also pushing in the direction ofless-global supply chains for food while also contributing to volatile and uncertain agriculturalprices. In addition, efforts to account for the environmental costs of agriculture and food production pose challenges to the just-in-time delivery of foods shipped around the globe.Despite these constraints on food production, consumer demands for cheap, tasty, convenient,and increasingly functional food show little sign of abating. Indeed, the ability to obtain justabout any food—regardless of local growing conditions—is practically a given for many U.S.consumers, and any effort to reimagine food systems will inevitably need to manage theseexpectations. At the same time, such an effort will need to confront the irony of the coexistenceof malnutrition and obesity, as education, income, and health gaps grow worldwide.In the face of these challenges, innovations are emerging globally from organizational leadersand grassroots enterprises. Dynamic technologies and policies are addressing energy volatility and unequal water scarcity. New and old coalitions seek to shorten and safeguard supplyfoodweb 2 0 2 01
Introductionchains, forming unexpected alliances to repurpose spaceand infrastructures. Institutional and citizen science alreadyoffers new insights and strategies for managing organisms,land, and ecosystems. And countless social justice and philanthropic efforts are burgeoning around the world to betterthe health and livelihoods of global citizens.Stakeholders around the world in all food system activitiesare responding to today’s disruptive forces. The stories oftheir innovations, told in Chapter 2, are signals of what’s tocome. They illustrate how individuals, communities, cities,countries, and organizations are redefining the activities inthe food web or creating entirely new activities.The Evolution of Food System ActivitiesThese disruptions and the innovations arising in responseform the basis of our forecasts regarding the future of food.These forecasts, outlined in Chapter 3, relate to the way weeat as well as to the nature and relationships of activities inthe food system. The food web that will emerge out of thiswill encompass greater cultural and ecological complexity,impact current activities and stakeholders, and generatenew ones. The forecasts situate us all in a food web futurethat is both fragile and potentially resilient.One way to think about the food web of the future is to relatethe changes taking place in six broad areas of activity in thefood system: agriculture and stewardship, manufacturingand branding, distribution and logistics, retail and information, consumption and taste, and disposal and renewal. Asthe impacts of disruptive forces are felt, these activities areevolving to form new relationships and interconnections.(See Page 3).Over the next decade, strategic responses will be requiredfrom stakeholders across all these activities in the foodsystem. In this report, we prescribe principles for long-termbusiness decision-making that identify vital attributes ofresilient strategies. Applying these principles will guardagainst potential risks and confer competitive advantageover the next decade, as well as increase the resilience ofthe food web as a whole.About This Report and How to Use ItIn The Future of Foodscapes, IFTF focused on thedisruptive relationship of food and health and on the newunprecedented powers of consumer-citizens in brokeringthis disruption in the food system. Here, in Chapter 1 welook more broadly at additional disruptions that will reshapethe global food system, both through their direct impactsand through local, regional, and global responses to them.These disruptions are pushing stakeholders at every level,from individual consumers and small-scale farmers tolarge food companies and national governments, to rethinkfood systems.2I N S T I T U T E FO R THE FUTUREThus situated, we have the opportunity to design strategiesthat create competitive advantage for those who make thefood system more resilient. Therefore Chapter 4 enumerates a set of principles that are key to designing resilientsystems. These principles, and the exercises that followin Chapter 5, are IFTF’s recommendations on how you canfoster resilience in the food web while keeping your organization’s interests in mind. While perfect resilience may beimpossible, improved resilience certainly is not.
Food System ActivitiesOne way to think about the food web of the future is to relate the changes taking place to six broadareas of activity in the food system: agriculture and stewardship, manufacturing and branding,distribution and logistics, retail and information, consumption and taste, and disposal and renewal.As the impacts of disruptive forces are felt, these activities are evolving to form new relationshipsand interconnections.Agriculture and StewardshipRetail and InformationThe business and science of producingfood will evolve in response to continuedpressures from growing populations,shrinking arable land, species vulnerability,and environmental disruptions.Venues for selling food range from guerillafood trucks to big box giants. Regardlessof their size and scale, these vendors areincreasingly becoming places to shareinformation on nutritional content and otherkey data about the food they sell.Manufacturing and BrandingWhile processing giants balance thecomplexities of international sourcing andconflicting standards, local and artisanprocessors proliferate. A variety of entitiestinker with brands to capture market shareon the basis of value, trust, and taste.Distribution and LogisticsDevelopments in technology continue toimprove efforts to track granular informationabout water, seed, fuel, and other factorsinvolved in moving food from farm to fork,both near and far.consumption and tasteNew global connections are dramaticallyexpanding the range of food choices andexperiences we have. These experienceswith new foods are shaping consumerpreferences and demands, while scientificunderstandings of taste preferences offeropportunities for innovation.disposal and reNewalDrives toward sustainability have placed anincreased focus on developing integratedsystems for managing waste products andon the optimal use and reuse of resources.foodweb 2 0 2 03
4I N S T I T U T E FO R THE FUTURE
1 DisruptionsEight Forces Reshaping the Future of FoodActivities in the global food web—from our ability to grow sufficient quantities offood to the opportunity to sit down and enjoy a nice dinner—are being challenged by majordisruptive forces inherent in the food system. We previously explored the myriad ways consumers are linking the consumption of food and health in IFTF’s Future of Foodscapes.1 Here,we broaden our scope to look at additional disruptive forces that will remake the ways weproduce, distribute, brand, sell, consume, and dispose of food.We have identified eight disruptions that are pushing stakeholders at every level—fromindividual consumers and small-scale farmers to international food companies and nationalgovernments—to rethink their relationships to the food system. These range from new tasteimperatives to growing food fears, from new attention to health concerns to an upsurge in foodrights activism, from increasing cost volatilities to cascading environmental emergencies, andfrom a growing demand for sustainability metrics to an expanding effort to reduce the carbon footprint of food. While these disruptions have been building over decades, many of theirimpacts are only now becoming apparent.foodweb 2 0 2 05
1 Disruptions1. New taste imperativesAmplifying food experiences, straining ecological capacitiesConsumer tastes, both entrenched and rapidly proliferating,are straining the capacities of the food web. Foods that wereonce local, seasonal, and occasional can now be found inalmost any part of the world at almost any time of year. Butthis global demand for novel and tasty foods—persistent insome regions and emerging in others—is straining ecological resources, contributing to rising obesity rates, and radically altering traditional foodways. Maintaining a richnessand variety of tastes while keeping food system activitiessustainable will become an increasingly acute challenge.This expanded availability of food has disconnected manyconsumers’ choices from the practical limits of climate andlocation and instead created an expectation that food willbe increasingly abundant, diverse, cheap, and pleasurable.The intense tastes possible through modern food sciencealso excite our palates and alter traditional tastes. At thesame time, we see countertrends rejecting this paradigm ofglobal abundance and emphasizing instead the novelty andsustainability of local, seasonal foods, also evoking taste asan added motivator.Luxurious expectationsStrained capacitiesTaste preferences that have evolved over thousands ofyears in contexts of geographical constraints and scarcityhave been reconditioned to a food system with dramaticallyexpanded options. The globalization of local tastes thatbegan with Marco Polo has exploded on an unprecedentedscale. Erstwhile local delicacies continue to spread as theyare recontextualized to satisfy new appetites in locationsfar from the foods’ roots. One example: urban dwellers inNorth America can now eat fresh mangos and papayas inthe middle of winter.While regional tastes have spread globally, production ofmany of the foods themselves is still constrained by localconditions including weather, season, and geography.Thus, global demands for certain food products are alreadystressing key components of the food system.Figure 1-1Diversifying diets in developing countries include moremeat.Changes in historic and projected composition of dietSimilarly, ongoing demand for meat and dairy productsin the United States and Europe, coupled with rapid shiftstoward more meat and dairy consumption in emergingmarkets (see Figure 1-1), has contributed to environmentaldamage, increases in commodity crop prices, and hunger insome of the world’s most impoverished places. It has alsoimpeded responses to other disruptive forces. For instance,people in emerging markets just now gaining regular accessto the flavors and social status offered by meat are turninga deaf ear to calls to adopt vegetarianism for environmental reasons. As the dietary proportion of meat increases,so too does the proportion of the world’s cereal productionused to produce animal feed, further straining agriculturalresources. Already, nearly half the world’s cereal grainsare used for animal feed, with this proportion projected toincrease in tandem with global meat consumption.Kilocalories per capita/day3000OtherPulsesRoots and tubers2000MeatSugarVegetable oils1000Other cerealsWheatRice01964 - 66 1997 - 992030Source: AC NeilsenSource: FAO 2003; based on a chart drawn by Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/dieta
The future of food will take shape in a world where biodiversity is declining, the climate is changing, infectious diseases are spreading more widely and rapidly, and global food sourcing is raising safety and sustainability concerns. Current worldwide migration trends will create
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Le genou de Lucy. Odile Jacob. 1999. Coppens Y. Pré-textes. L’homme préhistorique en morceaux. Eds Odile Jacob. 2011. Costentin J., Delaveau P. Café, thé, chocolat, les bons effets sur le cerveau et pour le corps. Editions Odile Jacob. 2010. Crawford M., Marsh D. The driving force : food in human evolution and the future.
Le genou de Lucy. Odile Jacob. 1999. Coppens Y. Pré-textes. L’homme préhistorique en morceaux. Eds Odile Jacob. 2011. Costentin J., Delaveau P. Café, thé, chocolat, les bons effets sur le cerveau et pour le corps. Editions Odile Jacob. 2010. 3 Crawford M., Marsh D. The driving force : food in human evolution and the future.
