The Global Diamond Industry 2018
The Global Diamond Industry 2018A resilient industry shines through
This work was commissioned by AWDC and preparedby Bain & Company and AWDC. It is based on secondary marketresearch, analysis of financial information available or providedto Bain & Company and AWDC, and a range of interviews withcustomers, competitors and industry experts. Bain & Companyand AWDC have not independently verified this informationand make no representation or warranty, expressed or implied,that such information is accurate or complete. Projected marketand financial information, analyses and conclusions contained hereinare based (unless sourced otherwise) on the information describedabove and on Bain & Company’s and AWDC’s judgment,and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guaranteesof future performance or results. Neither Bain & Company norAWDC nor any of their subsidiaries or their respective officers,directors, shareholders, employees or agents accept any responsibilityor liability with respect to this document. This document is copyrightof Bain & Company, Inc., and AWDC and may not be published,copied or duplicated, in whole or in part, without the writtenpermission of Bain & Company and AWDC.Copyright 2018 Bain & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Global Diamond Report 2018ContentsNote to readers ii1.Recent developments in the diamond industry 12.Rough diamond production 73.Cutting and polishing 114.Diamond jewelry retail 155.Key industry trends 196.Recent developments in the lab-grown market 237.Updated supply and demand model 29Glossary 35Key contacts for this report 36Page i
The Global Diamond Report 2018Note to readersWelcome to the eighth annual report on the global diamond industry prepared by the Antwerp WorldDiamond Centre (AWDC) and Bain & Company. This year’s edition covers industry developmentsin 2017 and the first half of 2018 and takes a close look at key industry trends.We begin with important developments along the value chain. In subsequent sections, we reviewfactors that influenced rough diamond production and sales, midstream performance and globaldiamond jewelry demand in major markets.We also provide an update on the long-term outlook for the diamond industry through 2030.The 2030 supply-demand forecast considers announced production plans, recent changesin mining operations, potential additional sources of supply, expected changes in globaland regional macroeconomic parameters, and potential effects of lab-grown diamonds.Readers looking for a brief overview of this report can find key points below: Following a period of high volatility, 2017 was strong for the diamond industry, withapproximately 2% growth across all segments of the value chain. In 2018, revenues are expectedto grow again, even accelerating in the mining and jewelry retail segments. Volatility persistedin 2018; the final outcome for the year will be determined by sales performance duringthe holiday season. Rough diamond mining companies delivered unprecedented production growth of nearly 20%in volume in 2017. The production increase came mostly from mines with lower-qualityassortments. Mining company revenues grew by 2% overall, indicating a positive trajectoryfor the second year in a row. In 2017, some major producers reported decreases in their EBITmargins, mostly due to currency appreciation in production countries. However, miningcompanies’ profitability bounced back in the first half of 2018. Midstream profitability remained positive with margins of about 1% to 3%. Assumingthe demand for diamond jewelry continues to rise through the end of 2018, overall profitabilityof the cutting and polishing segment is expected to improve. Midstream inventories increasedin 2017–18, particularly in lower-quality and small-size assortments, as midstream playersprepared to ride another demand surge for those categories in 2018. India continued to grow itsleadership position in the cutting and polishing segment due to lower labor costs, a favorableregulatory environment and relatively better access to financing. Even though financingavailability remains an issue in the midstream segment, transparent and financially healthycompanies report little impact on their ability to secure funding.I n line with positive luxury market trends, global diamond jewelry sales grew 2% in US dollarterms in 2017, fueled by strong macroeconomic fundamentals in the US, resurging demandfrom Chinese millennials, and increasing sales in the self-purchasing category in China.Page ii
The Global Diamond Report 2018The demand for diamond jewelry is expected to accelerate in 2018. However, if the trade warbetween the US and China continues, it may have a negative effect on the growth prospectsfor global demand in the short to medium term. Three key industry trends are shaping the future of the diamond industry. One of the most important opportunities is the increasing influence of digital technologies.Emerging and maturing digital technologies are affecting all parts of the value chain, enablingdiamond producers, midstream players and retailers to increase efficiencies within their operations.Marketing efforts that use digital technology can also deliver superior customer experiences. The second trend is the growing presence of lab-grown diamonds. Lab-grown diamonds areclearly here to stay. De Beers Groups’ launch of a lab-grown fashion jewelry retailer calledLightbox Jewelery, and the US Federal Trade Commission ruling on diamond terminology weremajor news in 2018. Lightbox does not provide grading reports for its products, as it states thatgrading reports exist as a record of a diamond’s rarity and, therefore, its value — with productsthat can be mass-produced to a particular recipe, Lightbox notes that grading reports couldconfuse consumers about the value of their lab-grown stones. The effects on natural diamonddemand and price will depend on consumers’ perceptions and preferences. If the naturaldiamond industry can differentiate its stones from lab-grown diamonds (perhaps positioninglab-grown diamonds as fashion jewelry rather than luxury items), the effect on natural diamonddemand by 2030 will be limited up to 5% to 10% in value terms. Given the pace of decliningproduction costs and wholesale and retail prices, we expect lab-grown stones to becomeaccessible to a wider consumer audience, potentially increasing demand for diamonds in general.In the short to medium term, growth of lab-grown diamonds will be limited by manufacturingcapacity, access to technology and intellectual property, and availability of funding. The third key trend is the shifting preferences of younger generations of consumers. Youngergenerations of consumers are causing industry players to rethink their sales and marketingstrategies. The self-purchase product category continues to grow as millennial and GenerationZ’s female spending power increases. Younger generations are also more inclined to considerthe opinions of social influencers, customer reviews and “likes” when making purchasingdecisions. Social media shopping is expected to increase significantly as the spending powerof Gen Z rises. Many retailers are already strategizing how the shifts in preferences will changetheir approaches to marketing and operations. The long-term outlook for the diamond market remains positive. Rough diamond supplyis projected to be negative 1% to 1% annually in volume terms. We expect demand for naturalrough diamonds to stay flat or grow up to 2% annually through 2030 in real terms (2% to 4%in nominal), backed by strong fundamentals in the US and the continued growth of the middleclass in China and India. Our outlook incorporates possible demand substitution from lab-growndiamonds, which is estimated to be 5% to 10%. It also reflects fundamental long-term supplyand demand factors rather than short-term fluctuations.Page iii
1.Recent developmentsin the diamondindustry Every segment of the value chain improved in 2017,with industry revenue growing around 2%. In 2018,we expect revenues to continue to trend upward,and project accelerated growth in the miningand jewelry segments. Revenue for rough diamonds increased, continuinga climb that started in 2016. Revenue growth for roughdiamonds is largely attributed to increased productionby smaller players. The top five mining companyaggregates faced unfavorable exchange rates in 2017,which contributed to lower profit margins of about 5%. Cutting and polishing revenues increased slightly in 2017due to healthy demand, marking a turnaround from prioryears. Average profitability was stable at 1% to 3%, withthe most efficient players delivering margins of around 10%.We expect cutting and polishing profitability to improvein 2018, supported by rising prices for polished diamondsand increased demand for diamond jewelry. Midstream inventory has increased in anticipation of higherdemand, particularly in lower-quality and smaller-sizedassortments. Global retail sales of diamond jewelry increased in 2017due to a strong economy in the US, the world’s largestdiamond jewelry market. A resurgence of luxuryspending among Chinese millennials also contributedto the increase. De Beers Group launched Lightbox Jewelry, a lab-grownfashion jewelery retailer with a new linear pricing modeland no grading reports for its products, in September2018. Along the value chain, companies are evaluatinghow to strategically respond. Performance across the value chain was strong duringthe first half of 2018, with accelerated growth expectedamong mining companies and jewelry retailers. The finaloutcome for the year hinges on holiday sales in December.
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 1: Barriers to entry and bargaining power vary across the diamond value chainRough diamondsPolished diamondsDiamond jewelryProductionCutting andpolishingJewelry manufacturing Explorationof diamondresources Roughdiamondproduction,processingand sortingSales Sale of rough Cuttingdiamondsand polishingfrom producersroughdiamonds Roughto producediamondpolishedtradingdiamondsNo. ofplayers:Top 5 playerscontrol 70% 100 ghmediumlowSales Polisheddiamondwholesale Jewelry designand manufacturingRetail sales Jewelry and watches Polisheddiamondtrading 10,000 playersLarge retailers control 35% of the marketlowmediummediumlowlowmedium 5,000 playersSource: Bain & CompanyFigure 2: Revenues improved throughout the process, and the trend is expected to accelerate in2018Rough diamondsPolished diamondsDiamond jewelryRough diamond salesCutting and polishingJewelry manufacturingGlobal revenues by value chain segment, 2% 2% 2% 2% 4–6% 3–5% 4–6%2016Retail sales20172018F*YOY change 2016–17*Forecast (F) made based on FY 2017 resultsNote: Jewelry manufacturing value is estimated at approximately 65% of retail sales based on historic averageSources: Company data; Kimberley Process; Euromonitor; Bain & CompanyPage 3YOY change 2017–18F* 4–6%
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 3: Profitability in the rough diamond segment trended down in 2017 but is expectedto rebound in 2018Rough diamondsRoughdiamondsalesPolished diamondsDiamond jewelryCutting and polishing(including trading)Jewelry manufacturingRetail salesAverage operating margin, 201722–24%9–11%3–5%2–4%1–3%Small retailers( 65% of market)Change inprofitabilityLarge retailers( 35% of market)Rectangle width corresponds to segment revenue in 20172017 vs. 16–5%2018 vs. 17Notes: Analysis of exploration and production is based on data for ALROSA, De Beers Group, Rio Tinto, Dominion Diamond Mines, Petra Diamonds;analysis of large chains is based on data for Chow Sang Sang, Chow Tai Fook, Gitanjali Jewels, Lukfook, Signet Jewelers, Tiffany & Co., Titan CompanySources: Publication analysis; company data; expert interviews; Bain & CompanyFigure 4: Rough diamond sales were stable in 2017 and are expected to rise in 2018World rough diamond sales by producers (including sale of inventories), billions 15YOY change(2016–17)2% 16 15 15 16 12201314151617 111 99Other20%Petra Diamonds–6%DominionDiamond Mines57%Rio Tinto15%De Beers Group–7%ALROSA–5%18EAverage price per carat sold (including sale of inventories), 119 131 114Notes: Estimated realized price is based on an estimate of carats sold if data is published, if not, on production data; ALROSA revenues represent diamond sales only;Dominion Diamond Mines 2017 results based on H1 2017 as the company was delisted and no long publishes the data; Petra Diamonds data converted from year ending in Juneto year ending in December, based on company reports for full year and half year; only diamonds tracked by Kimberley Process are included; other is estimated assuming no price changefor the players of this segment; E is estimate; to estimate average price per carat sold, total value of diamonds sold is divided by total volume of diamonds soldSources: Company data; Kimberley Process; analyst reports; Bain & CompanyPage 4
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 5: Rough and polished diamond prices trended up during the first half of 2018Polished diamond market price index,2004 price 100*Rough diamond market price index,2004 price 100*250200200150 3% 80910111213141516 1% 3%17H1 18100Change of average to previous year*Price index shows change in market price for like-for-like diamond categories weighted according to global rough and polished product mixSources: General polished diamond price index (PolishedPrices.com, data set 2004–16); Kimberley Process; company data; Bain & CompanyFigure 6: Midstream inventories grew in 2017, largely with smaller and lower quality diamondsAccumulated inventory in midstream by value, index 2012 100Inventory declinedue to decreasedrough diamondsales by miningcompanies(fueled by roughprice decrease)Stable inventorydue to increasedrough diamondsales backto normal levelsShift of inventoryfrom producersto midstream(with accumulationof din the second halfof the year dueto growthin demandfor diamond jewelry 168 124 122 130 138 1391718E100201213141516Note: Technological inventories are diamond stocks necessary to maintain regular production and the selling cycles of cutters and polishers, and polished diamond traders(around 9 months of total stock coverage)Sources: Company data; Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain & CompanyPage 5
The Global Diamond Report 2018Page 6
2.Rough diamondproduction All of the top mining companies increased productionin 2017, leading to an unprecedented 19% growthin rough diamond production; volume reached151 million carats in 2017, breaking an eight-yeartrend of flat output. However, the increase was largelyattributed to the processing of lower-quality suppliesand tailings, diminishing the effect on revenues. Canada, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Australia, Botswana and Russia accounted for 90%of the output increase in 2017. Canada led the way, withthe largest production increases coming from commercialmining efforts in Gahcho Kué and Renard, both of whichstarted production in 2016 and early 2017. We believe that 2017 was the pinnacle production levelfor the natural diamond supply. From here on, outputis expected to remain stable at best. Miners’ plansand actual production volumes in the first half of 2018suggest production may even decline in the near future. The most significant decreases are expected from Mirnyin Russia and Voorspoed in South Africa, resulting fromtheir closure; Jubilee in Australia from lower-grademining; and Argyle, also in Australia, becauseof depleted reserves in its block cave. Meaningfulincreases are expected from Orapa and Jwanengin Botswana. Currency adjustments in production countries loweredthe EBIT margins (earnings before interest and taxes)for De Beers Group and ALROSA in 2017. ALROSAreturned to positive in the first half of 2018and maintains the highest margin in the segment,attributable to rises in rough diamond prices, currencydevaluation and strong cost containment. Petra reportednegative EBIT margin in 2017 but rebounded in 2018. Merger and acquisition activity was focusedon the mining segment, with key industry players investingin mining resources and operations. De Beers Grouppurchased Chidliak, a diamond resource in Canada;ALROSA increased its shares in Catoca from 33% to 41%.
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 7: Rough diamond production grew by 19% in 2017, and may decline slightly in 2018Annual production, million caratsYOY change(2016–17) gola17–3%21%5%South sia6%18E**Estimated based on company production plansNotes: Only diamonds tracked by Kimberley Process are included; 2018 data is preliminary estimate and is to be updated with 2018 Kimberley data; due to rounding, some totals may not correspondwith the sum of the separate figures; DRC is Democratic Republic of the CongoSources: Company data; Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain & CompanyFigure 8: Five countries accounted for 90% of the output increase in 2017Annual production by country, million carats25Other 2South Africa 1Russia 2151 03Other 2Botswana 2Australia –3Russia –1Other –2147–7Botswana 2Australia 3DRC 3Canada reaseOutputdecrease2018ENotes: Only diamonds tracked by Kimberley Process are included; 2018 data is preliminary estimate and is to be updated with 2018 Kimberley data; due to rounding, some totals may not correspondwith the sum of the separate figures; DRC is Democratic Republic of the CongoSources: Company data; Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain & CompanyPage 9
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 9: All of the top mining companies increased production in 2017Annual production, million caratsYOY change(2016–17) s3%DominionDiamondMines33%Rio Tinto20%De Beers Group22%ALROSA201415–3%16176%18E** Estimated based on company production plansNotes: Dominion Diamond Mines production includes 40% Diavik and 100% Ekati, and 2017 estimate is based on H1 2017 as the company was delisted and no longer publishesthe data; only diamonds tracked by Kimberley Process are included; 2018 data is a preliminary estimate and is to be updated with 2018 Kimberley dataSources: Company data; Kimberley Process; expert interviews; Bain & CompanyFigure 10: Diamond producer margins showed mostly positive dynamics in the first half of 2018EBIT margin, %4448473736191712151613221925241412EBITDA margin, %45531918–115647ALROSA54262123252235De Beers Group2014423941Rio Tinto15161741322545851Petra DiamondsH1 18Notes: Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton revenues and EBIT include diamond mining only; Petra Diamonds data converted from year ending in June to year ending in December, based on company reports for fullyear and half year; 2017 impairment charges are taken into consideration for Petra Diamond EBIT/EBITDA calculationsSources: Company data; Bain & CompanyPage 10
3. Healthy growth in the diamond jewelry retail marketsupported a 2% increase in cutting and polishingrevenue, putting the segment on positive ground in 2017. While the cutting and polishing segment grew overall,profit gains in 2017 were mostly limited to producersof small stones. Companies that specialize in large,high-quality stones experienced pressure from retailersin 2017. That trend reversed in the first part of 2018.To sustain profitability, cutting and polishing companiesare focusing on four strategies: managing inventorylevels, shortening production cycles, optimizing yieldsand expanding operations. Technology is leadingimprovements in the cutting and polishing segment,from digitally mapping and modeling stonesto automating cutting processes. Because of its low labor costs, favorable regulatoryenvironment and relatively easier access to financing,India continued to gain market share in 2017. India’sgrowth came primarily at the expense of China andother countries. India accounts for more than 90%of global polished diamond manufacturing by value,and it dominates in all size segments, includingthe value-add segment of larger stones. In China, cutting and polishing revenue increasedin 2017, backed by strong domestic jewelry demand. Access to affordable financing continues to be an issuefor some midstream players. Following several defaultsin India, some banks have tightened credit requirements.However, transparent and financially healthy playersin the cutting and polishing segment reported onlylimited influence on their ability to secure funding.Cuttingand polishing
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 11: India’s dominance of the cutting and polishing industry grew in 2017Net import of rough diamonds to cutting and polishing countries, YOY growth(2016–17)10%100%OtherChina 6%2%India11%806040200201314151617Sources: Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council; International Trade Centre; Antwerp World Diamond Centre; China Customs Statistics; Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics; Bain & CompanyFigure 12: Differences in cost efficiency accounted for regional market-share changesin the cutting and polishing segment Continuous cost optimization attracted volumes from other regionsIndia Advancement of technologies and skills led to share gain in larger stonesChina andSoutheastAsia China is the No. 2 country by cost efficiency, but its relatively higher cost structure provedsensitive to margin pressures in 2015 Cutting and polishing sector grew in line with domestic diamond jewelry demand in 2017Africa Market stagnation occurred due to relatively low productivity and high cost structuredespite efforts to increase role in global cutting and polishing industry Relatively more developed diamond financing infrastructure is in place(India accounted for 40% of all borrowings), but affordable financing remains an issue Increase in volumes available for beneficiation due to production growth in region in 2018 Traditionally strong in large stone manufacturing, but slowly relinquishing positionsto India even in more expensive categories due to aging workforce and high costsOther Lack of affordable financing available to cutting and polishing companies in selectedcountries (Israel, US, Russia) Efforts underway in Russia to consolidate local cutting and polishing industry to makeit more competitiveSources: Expert interviews; Bain & CompanyPage 13
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 13: Labor and financing are key factors in the manufacturing costs of polished diamondsCost structure of cutting and polishing*for a typical Indian C&P player ( /ct, 2017)Key factors that affect profit300Revenue Effective assortment management Diverse client baseFinancing Financial transparency to secure low interest rate200 Shorten cutting and polishing cycles to reducerequirements for working capitalFinancing Access to affordable financingSG&A100Selling & admin** Online distribution system to reduce selling costs Lean management organizationProduction Automation of production processesProduction Optimization of yields0 Access to skilled talent poolSmall size(0.2–0.3 ct)Midsize(0.3–1 ct)Large size(1 ct)*Excluding raw materials costs**Includes management and administrative compensation, insurance, utilities, logistics, marketing and certification costsNote: C&P is cutting and polishingSources: Company data; expert interviews; Bain & CompanyPage 14
4.Diamond jewelryretail The luxury category has been stable comparedwith global GDP for the past five years, markinga resilience to generational shifts. The luxury segmenthas adapted to changing consumer preferencesand behavior. Keeping in line with luxury markettrends, global diamond jewelry sales grew 2% in USdollar terms in 2017. Demand for diamond jewelryis expected to continue or even accelerate in 2018,steered by high demand from affluent consumers. An increase in retail diamond jewelry sales is attributedto a strong economy and favorable macroeconomicsin the US, namely growing consumer credit, shrinkingunemployment and higher wages. Demand in China grew for the first time since 2013,picking up momentum from millennial buyers. Favorableadjustments to tax and customs policies should supportcontinued Chinese growth. The online channelis expected to bring additional diamond jewelry salesto regions in China with limited physical retail footprint. As in years past, India had the highest potentialfor diamond jewelry retail growth, yet its revenuesremained flat. Despite inflation and a weaker rupeein the first half of 2018, personal disposable incomeis expected to grow in India and provide basisfor increase in demand. In 2017, performance was tempered in Europeby lower consumer confidence and in Japan by weakeconomic fundamentals. Both are positioned to reboundin 2018, thanks to higher tourism volume and euroappreciation in Europe and decreased unemploymentin Japan. If the US and China continue to dispute trade terms,economic growth prospects in both countries could benegatively affected, or consumer confidence coulddwindle. While nothing detrimental has materialized,the potential outcomes of an ongoing trade war shouldbe considered.
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 14: Personal luxury and diamond jewelry spending remained stable relative to GDP overthe past five yearsGlobal nominal GDP, personal luxury goods* and diamond jewelry markets (2013 index 100, 2013–18E)CAGR(2013–18E)120110Personal luxury 3%Diamond jewelryGlobal GDP 2% 2%100908020131415161718E*Personal luxury goods include luxury jewelry, watches, beauty goods, apparel and accessoriesSources: The Economist Intelligence Unit; Bain & Company Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, 2013–18Figure 15: Global sales of diamond jewelry in 2018 are expected to see the highest growthin five yearsWorldwide diamond jewelry retail sales YOY growth rate, Constant exchange wide personal luxury goods market YOY growth rate, 6Moderation*Compared with previous yearSources: Euromonitor; Bain & Company Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, 2013–18Page 171718ЕRevival
The Global Diamond Report 2018Figure 16: The diamond jewelry market is expected to grow across most major geographicalregionsGlobal diamond jewelry market in 2017, CAGR(2016–17)Key trends and performance in 2017–18CAGR(2017–18E) Slow recovery from demonetization and Goods and Services Tax introduction Rising inflation and depreciating rupee Shift to organized retailing amid continued struggles of the less formal sectorOther Weak economic fundamentals balanced by yen appreciationThe Gulf*India Labor market and consumer spending improvementJapanEurope Steady inbound tourism growth in luxury retail capitals Decreasing consumer confidence following Brexit and US tensionsChina Acceleration of euro appreciation catalyzing domestic consumption Increasing demand for nonbridal jewelry from millennials Government adjustment on tax and customs to boost consumptionUS Healthy GDP growth and consumer-confidence upward trend Robust employment with job creation and wage growth Tax cuts positively affecting consumption2017 Increasing demand from affluent customers*Includes Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain and QatarNote: China includes Hong KongSources: Publication analysis; Euromonitor; Bain & CompanyFigure 17: Currency movements in 2018 support diamond jewelry retail growth, in US dollartermsChange of currency value vs. ,2017 average vs. 2016 averageChinaChina 2%IndiaJapan 3%Japan 3%The Gulf*026%The Gulf*No change 22%Eurozone2% 44%India3%Eurozone 6Change of currency value vs. ,2018E** average vs. 2017 average46% 6*Includes Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar**Estimate based on average of first 9 months of 2018Sources: Thomson Reuters; Bain & CompanyPage 18No change 4 20246%
5. Three trends have the highest potential to affectthe diamond industry in the near term: advancementsin digital technologies, the development of lab-growndiamonds and generational shifts in consumerpreferences. Among other benefits, digital technologies are aidingtransparency and efficiency efforts across all segmentsof the value chain. For example, in 2017 and early2018, blockchain projects were launched to helpconsumers confidently identify the origin of theirdiamonds. Mining companies are using predictivemaintenance, real-time controls and artificialintelligence to mitigate rising operating costs. Cuttingand polishing players are pursuing advanced solutionsin digital mapping, modeling and manufacturingto shorten production cycles and ultimately movetoward fully automated processes to manufacturepolished diamonds. Consumer behavior is alsochanging as technology matures; social media,for example, is enabling and influencing newdirect-to-consumer and online sales models. Two important events occurred in 2018 regardingthe lab-grown diamond market. In July, the US FederalTrade Commission amended its Jewelry Guides,clarifying “a diamond is a diamond” rega
We begin with important developments along the value chain. In subsequent sections, we review factors that influenced rough diamond production and sales, midstream performance and global diamond jewelry demand in major markets. We also provide an update on the long-term outlook for the diamond industry through 2030.
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