Feb 16, 2021 Costs Of Generating Electrical Energy 1.0 .
Updated: Feb 9, 2021Feb 11, 2021Feb 16, 2021Costs of Generating Electrical Energy1.0OverviewThe short-run costs of electrical energy generationcan be divided into two broad areas: fixed andvariable costs. These costs are illustrated in Fig. 1abelow.Fixed costsInterest on bondsReturn to stockholdersProperty taxesInsuranceDepreciationFixed O&MVariable costsFuel costsVariable O&MFig. 1aTypical values of these costs are given in thefollowing Table 1 [1]. Some notes of interest follow: The “overnight cost” is the cost of constructing theplant, in /kW if the plant could be constructed in asingle day. However, values given here are out-ofdate; better data is provided in the next set of notes. Operational values, including emissions rates, are ok.o The “variable O&M” is in mills/kWhr (a mill is0.1 ). These values represent mainly maintenancecosts. They do not include fuel costs.o Fuel costs are computed through the heat rate. Wewill discuss this calculation in depth.o The heat rate values given are average values.1
Table 12
We focus on operating costs in these notes. Our goalis to characterize the relation between the cost andthe amount of electric energy out of the power plant.2.0FuelsFuel costs dominate the operating costs necessary toproduce electrical energy (MW) from the plant,sometimes called production costs. We begin withnuclear. Enriched uranium (3.5% U-235) in a lightwater reactor has an energy content of 960MWhr/kg[2], or multiplying by 3.41 MBTU/MWhr, we get3274MBTU/kg. The total cost of bringing uranium tothe fuel rods of a nuclear power plant, consideringmining, transportation, conversion1, enrichment,fabrication, and disposal was estimated to be (as of12/2011) 2770/kg [3] ([4] gives a lower number asof 3/2017 to be 1390/kg). The two assessments, anda more recent one [5] are provided in the table below.Uranium2Ref [3] EstimateRef [4] EstimateRef [5] EstimatekgkgUS 1300 8.9 605 8.9 6988.9kgU3O8x 146Conversion7.5 kg U x 13Enrichment37.3 SWU x 155FuelFabrication per kgU3O8x 68US 98 7.5 kg U x 14US 1132 7.3 SWU x 52Total, approxUS 2770US 240 per kgU3O8x 78.5 105 Avgofrefs [3, 4] 380 7.3 SWU x 101.50 769.42 105.40 300 Avgofrefs [3, 4] 1390 270 1838“Conversion” here does not mean to electric energy. Rather, uranium concentrates are purified and converted touranium hexafluoride (UF6) or feed (F), the feed for uranium enrichment plants. See EPRI Rprt 1020659, “ParametricStudy of Front-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle Costs Using Reprocessed Uranium,” Jan. 2010.2 Uranium quantities are expressed in the unit of measure U3O8e (equivalent). U3O8e is triuranium octoxide (oruranium concentrate) and the equivalent uranium-component of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) and enriched uranium.3 Separative work unit (SWU): The standard measure of enrichment services. The effort expended in separating a massF of feed of assay xf into a mass P of product assay xp and waste of mass W and assay xw is expressed in terms of thenumber of separative work units needed, given by the expression SWU WV(xw) PV(xp) - FV(xf), where V(x) isthe value function, defined as V(x) (1 - 2x) 1n((1 - x)/x).13
Using the higher value of the above table, the cost perMBTU of nuclear fuel is about 2770/kg 3274MBTU/kg 0.85/MBTU4.To give some idea of the difference between costsof different fossil fuels, some typical average costs offuel are given in the Table 2 [6] for coal, petroleum,and natural gas. One should note in particular The ratio of highest to lowest average price overthe last 20-years for coal, petroleum, and naturalgas are by factors of 2, 5.71, and 2.97,respectively, so coal has had more stable pricevariability than petroleum and natural gas. During 2019, coal is 2.08/MBTU, petroleum 13.40/MBTU, and natural gas 3.03/MBTU, socoal is clearly a more economically attractive fuelfor producing electricity (gas may look better thancoal if a price for CO2 emissions is implemented).Table 2: Receipts, Average Cost, and Quality of Fossil Fuels for theElectric Power Industry, 1991 through 2019, obtained from [6]Table 4.5. Receipts, Average Cost, and Quality of Fossil Fuels for the Electric Power Industry, 1992 through2012All FossilCoal [1]Petroleum [2]Natural Gas [3]FuelsAverage CostAverage CostAvg.Avg.Average AverageYear Receipts ( Receipts ( ReceiptsSulfurSulfurCostCost(Billion per (dollars/(billion(Billionper (dollars/ PercentPercent(cents/ 10 (cents/ 10BTU)BTU)10 6ton) by Weight10 6 barrel) by Weight BTUs)6 Btu)6 0619,036,4781.251,048,0982.1413.551.1This is a very low fuel cost! However, it is balanced by a relatively high investment (overnight) cost – seeTable 1.44
813.4081.290.463.03[1] Anthracite, bituminous coal, subbituminous coal, lignite, waste coal, and synthetic coal.[2] Distillate fuel oil (all diesel and No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 fuel oils), residual fuel oil (No. 5 and No. 6 fuel oils and bunker C fuel oil),jet fuel, kerosene, petroleum coke (converted to liquid petroleum, see Technical Notes for conversion methodology), and waste oil.[3] Natural gas, including a small amount of supplemental gaseous fuels that cannot be identified separately. Natural gas values for2001 forward do not include blast furnace gas or other gas.[4] Beginning in 2002, data from the Form EIA-423, "Monthly Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants Report" for independentpower producers and combined heat and power producers are included in this data dissemination. Prior to 2002, these data were notcollected; the data for 2001 and previous years include only data collected from electric utilities via the FERC Form 423.[5] For 2003 only, estimates were developed for missing or incomplete data from some facilities reporting on the FERC Form 423.This was not done for earlier years. Therefore, 2003 data cannot be directly compared to previous years' data. Additional informationregarding the estimation procedures that were used is provided in the Technical Notes.R Revised.Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. Receipts data for regulated utilities are compiledby EIA from data collected by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on the FERC Form 423. These data are collected byFERC for regulatory rather than statistical and publication purposes. The FERC Form 423 data published by EIA have been reviewedfor consistency between volumes and prices and for their consistency over time. Nonutility data include fuel delivered to electricgenerating plants with a total fossil-fueled nameplate generating capacity of 50 or more megawatts; utility data include fuel delivered toplants whose total fossil-fueled steam turbine electric generating capacity and/or combined-cycle (gas turbine with associated steamturbine) generating capacity is 50 or more megawatts. Mcf thousand cubic feet. Monetary values are expressed in nominal terms.Sources: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-423, "Monthly Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants Report;" FederalEnergy Regulatory Commission, FERC Form 423, "Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants."Check www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ for the mostrecent month’s data on this.2.0Natural gasOne obvious indication from the Table 2 data is thatthe price of natural gas has been reducing. We cansee this another way from Figure 1b below.5
Figure 1b: Price of natural gas, 1997-2021But even with high gas prices, as seen in 2000-2009period, especially relative to the price of coal (lessthan 2.00/MBTU for most of this period) the 20002009 period saw new combined cycle gas-fired plantsfar outpace new coal-fired plants, with gasaccounting for over 85% of new capacity [7] (of theremaining, 14% was wind). The reasons for this wasthat gas-fired combined cycle plants have (i) lowcapital costs, (ii) high fuel efficiency, (iii) shortconstruction lead times, and (iv) low emissions.This trend has been ongoing for some time, asobserved in Fig. 2a [8], where the sharply risingcurve from 1990-2011 is due to gas consumption forelectric. This trend continues to 2011-2020, as shownin Fig. 2b [9]. In addition to the previous (i)-(iv)reasons, there are two more: (v) very low gas prices(due to shale), and (vi) the need for power systemflexibility (due to wind and solar growth).6
Fig. 2a: US Natural Gas Consumption 1950-2011Fig. 2b: US Natural Gas Consumption 2000-20207
This view of natural gas can be also observed inTable 3a, where one sees that in the last row that thesum of coal gas wind remains about constant,showing that energy reduction from coal has beenmainly compensated by energy increases in gas andwind.Table 3a: Electric energy production by resource typeToday’s very low natural gas prices are due to theincreased supply from shale gas, which has alwaysbeen in the ground but not economically attractive toget until hydraulic fracturing was developed. Fig. 3aillustrates hydraulic fracturing, where water and sandare injected into the ground at very high pressures toforce out the gas that resides within shale fissures.8
Figure 3a: Hydraulic fracturingAlthough the Marcellus shale play has been the mostproductive in recent years, there are others, per Fig. 3b.Fig. 3b: US shale plays9
Fig. 3c shows the preponderance of natural gasfueled power plants in the northeast US.Fig. 3c: Gas power plants in the USFig. 3d compares US average gas flows in 2005(before much shale gas production) to those of 2014(when shale gas production was fairly high). Theblack curve is an important interface that shows gasflowing into the northeast in 2005 and out of thenortheast in 2014 (mainly due to the Marcellus play).Fig. 3dFig. 4 shows the (i) reduction in Gulf of Mexico gasproduction, (ii) reduction in Canadian imports, and10
increase in Pennsylvania gas production (mainlyfrom the Marcellus play).Fig. 4: Changes in main gas production resources due to ShaleOver the last five years, most new US generatingcapacity has been natural gas, wind, or solar, asindicated in Fig. 5a [10].Fig. 5a: Capacity additions by year: 2014-2019 [10]Planned capacity will continue to emphasize gas,solar, and wind plants, as indicated in Fig. 5 [11].These plots reflect predicted cumulative capacity ineach year. The plot on the left is for “Tier 1 plannedcapacity” which might be considered to be very likelyto be built. The plot on the right is for “Tier 1 and11
Tier 2 planned capacity,” where Tier 2 might beconsidered to be likely to be built 5 6.WindWindSolarSolarGasGasFig. 5: 10-year projection of US capacity additions [11]3.0 Fuels continued – transportation & emissionsThe ways of moving bulk quantities of energy in thenation are via rail & barge (for coal), gas pipeline, &electric transmission, illustrated in Fig. 6a.5Tier 1: Planned capacity that meets at least one of the following requirements are included as anticipatedresources: Construction complete (not in commercial operation) Under construction Signed/approvedInterconnection service agreement Signed/approved power purchase agreement Signed/approvedInterconnection construction service agreement Signed/approved wholesale market participant agreement Included in an integrated resource plan or under a regulatory environment that mandates a resourceadequacy requirement (applies to vertically integrated entities).6Tier 2: Planned capacity that meets at least one of the following requirements are included as prospectiveresources: Signed/approved completion of a feasibility study Signed/approved completion of a systemimpact study Signed/approved completion of a facilities study Requested Interconnection serviceagreement Included in an integrated resource plan or under a regulatory environment that mandates aresource adequacy requirement (applies to regional transmission organizations (RTOs)/independent systemoperators (ISOs)).12
Fig. 6aAn important influence in the way fuel is moved isrestrictions on sulfur dioxide (SO2) due to the highlysuccessful cap and trade program started in 1995.Coal is classified into four ranks: lignite (Texas, N.Dakota), sub-bituminous (Wyoming), bituminous(central Appalachian), anthracite (Penn), reflectingthe progressive increase in age, carbon content, andheating value per unit of weight. Fig. 3b shows UScoal resources [12].13
Fig. 3b: US coal resources [12]Table 3b below illustrates differences among coalthroughout the country, in terms of capacity, heatvalue, sulfur content, and minemouth price.Appalachian coal is primarily bituminous, mainlymined underground, whereas Wyoming coal issubbituminous, mainly mined from the surface.Table 3b: Coal characteristics from different US 4
Although Table 3b is a little dated (2002), its generalmessage that Wyoming coal (Powder River Basin,PRB) is our most important source is still relevant, asconfirmed by the figure below [13], where we seePRB coal production being over twice that of the nexthighest source; this is due to (a) its /BTU is veryattractive, and (b) it has low sulfur content. As aresult, a great deal of coal is transported fromWyoming eastward, as illustrated in Fig. 7 (the righthand-side of Fig. 7 is an eastbound coal train throughAmes, IA).The Coal Dog .Powder River Basin CoalMovementNWPPPRBMAPPECARMAINAZNM23Fig. 7: PRB coal movement15
We do not have a national CO2 market yet, but thereis a regional one called the Regional Greenhouse GasInitiative (RGGI) that involves 11 eastern states [14].4.0 CO2 Emissions - overviewThere is increased acceptance worldwide that globalwarming is caused by emission of greenhouse gasses intothe atmosphere. These greenhouse gases are (in order oftheir contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth) [15]: Water vapor: causes 36-70% of the effect Carbon dioxide (CO2): causes 9-26% of the effect Methane (CH4): causes 4-9% of the effect Nitrous oxide (N2O): Ozone (O3): causes 3-7% of the effect Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are compounds containingchlorine, fluorine, and carbon, (no H2). CFCs arecommonly used as refrigerants (e.g., Freon).The DOE EIA was publishing an excellent annual report onannual US greenhouse gas emissions; the one published inNov, 2007 (for 2006) is [16], and the one published in Dec,2009 (for 2008) is [17]. One figure from the 2006 report isprovided as Fig. 8a. The information of most interest to usin Fig. 8a is the center, summarized in Table 4.Note each greenhouse gas is quantified by “million metrictons of carbon dioxide equivalents,” or MMTCO2e. Carbondioxide equivalents are the amount of CO2 by weightemitted into the atmosphere that would produce the sameestimated radiative forcing as a given weight of anotherradiatively active gas [16].16
Fig. 8a: Summary of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2006Table 4: Greenhouse Gas Total, 2006SectorsMMTCO2e % total CO2From Power Sector 234439.1*From DFU-transp 188531.4*From DFU-other 166127.7From ind. processes 1091.8Total CO25999100Non-CO2 GHG1141Total GHG7140% total GHG32.8**26.4**23.3**1.5**84.016.0100.*The direct fuel use (DFU) sector includes transportation, industrial process heat, space heating, and cooking fueled bypetroleum, natural gas, or coal. The DFU-transportation CO2 emissions of 1885 MMT was obtained from the lowerright-hand-side of Fig. 9a. The DFU-other CO2 emissions of 1661 MMT was obtained as the difference between totalDFU emissions of 3546 MMT (given at top-middle of Fig. 9a) and the DFU-transportation emissions of 1885 MMT.** The “% total GHG” for the 4 sectors (power, DFU-transp, DFU-other, and ind processes) do not include the NonCO2 GHG emitted from these four sectors, which are lumped into the single row “Non-CO2 GHG.” If we assume thateach sector emits the same percentage of Non-CO2 GHG as CO2, then the numbers under “% total CO2” arerepresentative of each sector’s aggregate contribution to CO2 emissions. The only sector we can check this for istransportation, where we know Non-CO2 emissions are 126MMT, which is only 11% of the 1141 MMT total non-CO2,significantly less than the % of total CO2 for transportation, which is 31.4%.17
Figure 8b [17] is the same picture as Fig. 8a except it is forthe year 2008; the information is summarized in Table 5.Fig. 8b: Summary of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2008Table 5: Greenhouse Gas Total, 2008SectorsMMTCO2e % total CO2From Power Sector 235939.8*From DFU-transp 181930.8*From DFU-other 163627.6From ind. processes 1041.8Total CO25918100Non-CO2 GHG1213Total GHG7131% total GHG33.18**25.5**22.9**1.5**83.017.0100.*The direct fuel use (DFU) sector includes transportation, industrial process heat, space heating, and cooking fueled bypetroleum, natural gas, or coal. The DFU-transportation CO2 emissions of 1819 MMT was obtained from the lowerright-hand-side of Fig. 9b. The DFU-other CO2 emissions of 1636 MMT was obtained as the difference between totalDFU emissions of 3555 MMT (given at top-middle of Fig. 9b) and the DFU-transportation emissions of 1819 MMT.** The “% total GHG” for the 4 sectors (power, DFU-transp, DFU-other, and ind processes) do not include the NonCO2 GHG emitted from these four sectors, which are lumped into the single row “Non-CO2 GHG.” If we assume thateach sector emits the same percentage of Non-CO2 GHG as CO2, then the numbers under “% total CO2” arerepresentative of each sector’s aggregate contribution to CO2 emissions. The only sector we can check this for istransportation, where we know Non-CO2 emissions are 127MMT, which is only 10.5% of the 1213 MMT total nonCO2, significantly less than the % of total CO2 for transportation, which is 30.8%.18
To check the above, I have provided the “emission flow”diagram from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory(LLNL) website [18], below, comparing its values withthose of the 2008 EIA data, see Table 6. The significanttakeaways are that (i) the LLNL diagram does not reportnon-CO2 GHG; (ii) otherwise, the numbers agree very well.Fig. 9a: LLNL Emissions flow diagram for 2008Table 6: CO2 Emissions, 2008, comparing Fig. 8b data (firstnumber in each cell) and Fig. 9a data (second number in each cell)SectorsMMTCO2e % total CO2% total GHGFrom Power Sector*From DFU-transp*From DFU-otherFrom ind. processesTotal CO2Non-CO2 GHGTotal GHG2359, 235939.8, 40.633.18**, NA1819, 188930.8, 32.525.5**, NA1636, 156727.6, 26.922.9**, NA104, 01.8, 01.5**, NA5918, 58151213, Unreported7131, NA19100, 10083.0, NA17.0, NA100.
We now examine more recent emissions data from LLNL.Fig. 9 shows the 2018 LLNL emissions flow diag
1 Costs of Generating Electrical Energy 1.0 Overview The short-run costs of electrical energy generation can be divided into two broad areas: fixed and variable costs. These costs are illustrated in Fig. 1a below. Fig. 1a Typical values of these costs are given in the following Table 1 [1]. Some notes of interest follow:
24-hr Average Flow (cfs) Gage Feb 12, 2021 Feb 13, 2021 Feb 14, 2021 Feb 15, 2021 Feb 16, 2021 Feb 17, 2021 Feb 18, 2021 The Forks* 241 224 179 302 225 157 122
Jan 30 Last day of Ukulele Kids session 1 Jan 30 Dental Screening (K & Gr. 2) Jan 30 Girls Basketball Tournament Feb. 6 Pasta Night Feb 13 School Valentine’s Day celebrations Feb 14 PA Day Feb 17 Family Day Feb 19 Confirmation Retreat Gr. 7 Feb 22 Gr. 7 Confirmation Feb 25 Shrove Tuesday/ Pancake Tuesday Feb 26 Ash Wednesday
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FISH & WILDLIFE COSTS 17TH ANNUAL REPORT TO THE NORTHWEST GOVERNORS PAGE 3 Figures 08 Figure 1: Costs by Major Area, FY2017, as Reported by Bonneville's Fish and Wildlife Division 09 Figure 2: Costs by Types of Species 10 Figure 3: Costs of FCRPS BiOp Projects 11 Figure 4: Costs Associated with ESA Listed Fish 12 Figure 5: Costs by Fund 13 Figure 6A: Costs by Category
Table 2 The Various Measures of Cost: Thirsty Thelma's Lemonade Stand Average Costs Average costs can be determined by dividing the firm's costs by the quantity of output it produces. The average cost is the cost of each typical unit of product. Average Costs Average Fixed Costs (AFC) Average Variable Costs (AVC)
brother’s life ended in death by the hands of his brother. We are going to see what the Holy Spirit revealed that caused the one to murder his flesh and blood. We are also going to see God’s expectation and what he needed to operate in as his brother’s keeper. My desire is for us to all walk away with a greater burden for each other as we see each other as ourselves and uphold each other .
