MIT ICAT Global Aviation Infrastructure

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MITICATGlobal Aviation InfrastructureProf. R. John HansmanWith the help of the Faculty and Students of the MIT GlobalIndustry StudyTraffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian Waitzrjhans@mit.edu

MITICATFreight Trends by RegionOCT 06Freight Tonne-Kilometers by Region6050FTK (billion)North America40Europe30Asia andPacificLatin America& CaribbeanMiddle East20Africa100197019801990Data source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers20002010

MITICATOCT 06RPK by RegionScheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers by Region14001200North AmericaRPK (billion)1000Europe800Asia andPacificLatin America& CaribbeanMiddle East600400Africa2000197019801990Data source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers20002010

MITICATAir Transportation Markets2004 Data

MITChina - India MegamarketsICATSource : Boeing Current Market Outlook 2006

MITChina - IndiaICAT Infrastructure ApproachesIndiaChinaAirline LiberalizationAirline RegulationMarginal InfrastructureInfrastructure InvestmentIndustry PushingField of DreamsInfrastructure“If you build it they will come”

MITICATIndia18 Bilateral MOUs last year1.India - RussiaNew Delhi, 21st February 20062.India - ItalyNew Delhi, 15th February 20063.India - ThailandBangkok, Thailand, 10th February 20064.India - UAENew Delhi, 7th December 20055.India - New ZealandQueenstown, New Zealand, 19th October 20056.India - SingaporeNew Delhi, 24th August 20057.India - PhilippinesNew Delhi, 21st July 20058.India - BhutanThimphu, Bhutan, 6th July 20059.India - CanadaOttawa, 2nd June 200510. India - GermanyNew Delhi, 25th May 200511. India - BelgiumBrussels, 18th May 200512. India - NetherlandsThe Hague, 17th May 200513. India - QatarNew Delhi, 12th May 200514. India - OmanNew Delhi, 27th April 200515. India - USANew Delhi, 14th April 200516 .India - UKNew Delhi, 13th April 200517. India - ChinaNew Delhi, 11th March 200518. India - FranceParis, 23rd February 2005source: Ministry of Civil Aviation

MITICATyChinaBattle for last US RouteThe U.S. Department ofTransportation will award onenew route between China andthe U.S. by the end of 2006.United AirlinesContinental AirlinesWashington,y Four U.S. airlines areRoute:competingRoute: Newark, N.J.D.C. Worth to Beijingfor the route: United,Seats:Northwest,to Shanghai347Seats: 283FlightTime:American and Continental. 15 hr.Flight Time: 14 hr.15 mins.ymap of world and routes, list ofairlines and restrictionNorthwest AirlinesRoute: Detroit toShanghaiSeats: 335Flight Time: 14 hr.45 mins.Source: Detroit Free Press 10/18/2006American AirlinesRoute: Dallas/Ft.Worth to BeijingSeats: 247Flight Time: 14 hr.30 mins.yCurrent services: fromNew York, Chicago andSan Francisco.yThe U.S. Department ofTransportation will award onelast route (until 2008) betweenChina and the U.S. by the endof the year.yFour U.S. airlines arecompeting for the route: United,Northwest,Continental,American

MITICATTraffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian WaitzChina

MITICATComparison of Cost Structure Chinesevs US AirlinesU.S. Airlines, 2005Utils & Office Supplies, 0.6%Other, 21.5%Ad & Promotion, 0.8%Labor, 24.6%Communication, 1.3%Insurance, 0.8%China Airlines, 2001Chinese Airlines, 2001Passenger Commissions,1.3%Maintenance Material, 1.3%Fuel, 24.0%Catering, 1.6%Insurance, 1.0%Landing Fees, 2.1%Professional Services, 8.0%Ownership, 12.1%Maintenance, 8.3%Landing Fees,15.0%Catering, 4.8%High-value Sparesand Supplies, 6.1%Other, 8.9%A/C Depreciation,Operating Lease,Rental, 24.9%Labor, 3.4%Fuel, 27.6%Source: “Cost Analysis of China Airline Industry”, Aviation Industry Development Research Center of China, 10/14/2003.ATA US Airline Cost Index: Major & National Passenger Carriers, Q3 2005.

ChinaGolden TriangleMITICATDistribution of Cities and Towns East region dominates alleconomic metricsMiddle Three economic centersWestEastMiddleBeijing Shanghai Guangzhou BeijingBohai BayShanghaiChangjiangDelta93%100%TaiwanHong KongGuangzhouPearl DeltaLandPopulationGDP in 2002Intl Trade in 20029.6 mn km21,284 mn10,240 bn RMB621 bn USDWestMiddleEast80%58%60%40%20%0%Source: National Bureau of Survey & Mapping of China, NBSLandPopulationGDPIm/Export

Trends of Cargo ThroughputMITICATBased on Average Historical Growth RatesObserved in 1993-2002 (1994-2002 for Mainland)5000Hong Kong9.0%Shanghai group18.8%Airport Throughput (000 tonnes)40003000Taipei7.1%2000Guangzhou group13.0%Beijing group11.7%1000FEDEX HUB IMPACT?01994199619982000200220042006Source: based on data from CAAC, Hong Kong Airport Authority, CAA20082010

MITICATChina Airport DevelopmentBeijing GroupShanghai GroupGuangzhouGroupy 150 commercial airports operational in 2002y237 airports expected by 2010 (CAAC), most are regional airports

MITICATyChina Airport DevelopmentGovernment Airport Spending 14.9 B (1990-2005) 17.4 B Planned (2006-2011)yPlanned Expansion 17.4By42 Airportsy2005 138M Pax,y(15.5% growth rate) CAACyCAAC Projections 14%/yr through 2010 then 11%yBejing 2008 Olympics is a driver

MITICATBejing Airport

MITICATLiuzhau Airport“Field of Dreams”?

MITICATLinzhi Tibet, Lhasa, RNPApproach

MITICATLhasa, Linzhi RNP Approach

MITICATFlight Plans Filed 24 hours inAdvance (must be approved)Sichuan Province Example (398 total flights)

MITICATBejing Corridors3 Arrival Corridors3 Departure Corridors2 Overflight Corridors

MITICATWest China Airway Structure2240 nm aproxBejingB 215 Silk Road AirwayVORVOROverland FANS RouteVORNDB

MITICATTraffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian WaitzIndia

MITICATOct 05 adCochinAhmedabadJihuGoa findia.com/maps/india/percapitaincome.htm (need authorization)

MITICATySignificant Growth yMeta-ObservationsDomestic (Jet, Air Deccan stimulating the market)International (Economy and Open Skies)20% expected to cool to less than 10%Train and Road Infrastructure marginally functionalAirport Capacity/Space Problem Well Recognized and Being Addressed Most Airports have latent capacity but poor runway/taxiway setups Mumbai most difficult point Cochin, Hyderabad, Bangalore, greenfields in progressyMost critical short term constraint is trained personnel Pilots, Controllers, Mechanics, DGACyATC lacks efficiencies but not a major capacity constraint Current controller shortage (450 controllers) Current staffing 1200 controllers, 6000 Technical Equipment Maintenance

MITICATIndiaSource : Boeing Current Market Outlook 2006

MITICATQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.Domestic Airline Liberalization andCompetitiony Indian ALQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture. Government officialsy Air Deccan Emerging Middle Classy SpiceJetQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture. Emerging Middle ClassQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.y Jet Multi-National CorporateQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.y Air Sahara Corporatey Kingfisher CorporateQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.AWST 7/18/05y IndiGoQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture. Emerging Middle Class 100 A-320s?, Rakesh Gangwal (USAir)

MITICAT

MITICATAir Deccan Market StimulationDestinationsQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.

MITICATIndia Air Transportation InfrastructureComponent Capabilityy Airports (high capacity 25 ops/hr 38) Runways 1 Runway ops. Plans for expansion Terminals Weak, PPPs emerging Ramp Parking StandsMajor Domestic Limit (Design Criteria) Ground transport interfaceVery poor but endemic Servicing Controlled by Air India Maintenance Limited training, Hangery Air Traffic Management CommunicationsHF issues, Bay of Bengal etcNavigationGeography, need to check ILS availability & minimumsSurveillanceRadar GapsControlLow Tempo, Controller Shortagey Weather ObservationOK ForecastingOK DisseminationIn face briefings requiredy Skilled personnelPilots, Mechanics, Controllersy Cost recovery mechanismWeak, shifting

MITICAT

MITICATMumbai

MITICATMumbai

MITICATMumbaiHigh Local Population Density Limits Expansion

MITICATMumbaiEncroachment areas in yellowHigh Local Population Density and Topography Limits Expansion

MITICATMumbai Encroachment IssueQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompreare needed to see this pictureHigh Local Population Density and Topography Limits Expansion

MITICATDelhi

MITICATDelhi

MITICATDelhi

MITICAT

MITICATChennai

MITICATChennaiATCArea & Approach ControlProcedural (Non-Radar) ControlApproach Control

MITICATCochin

MITICATCochin “Greenfield” AirportIndigeneous

MITICATBangalore

MITICATBangalore

MITICATBangalore “Greenfield” AirportPPP International InvestmentQuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.Source: Bangalore Airport Watch http://www.karnataka.com/watch/blr-airport/Airport Design:Kaufmann, van der Meer Planer AG

MITICATLeh

MITICATyLeh (IXL)yElevation 10682 ftyRunway Length 10100 ftyVisual Approach OnlyyCivil Enclave

MITICAT

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MITICAT

MITICATNorth America36% Pax26% Cargo 160 Airlines 4100 AirportsLatin America/Caribbean4% Pax3% Cargo 50 Airlines 580 AirportsAir Transportation as Enabling Factor inDeveloping RegionsEurope27% Pax27% CargoAsia/Pacific27% Pax36% Cargo 200 Airlines 2400 AirportsAfrica2% Pax2% Cargo 20 Airlines 300 AirportsMiddle East4% Pax6% Cargo 80 Airlines 1800 Airports 20 Airlines 230 AirportsInfrastructure - Satellite Based Information Technologies have thepotential to allow regions with immature air transportationinfrastructure to rapidly reach parity with mature systemsThe Air Transportation Industry has an obligation to find economicmodels which support investment and economic development inthese regions.Population .doc.htmlAir Transport Source ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus

MITICATTraffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian WaitzAfrica

MITICATTraffic Source: Sage Analysis courtesy Prof Ian WaitzLatin America

MITICATQuickTime and aBMP decompressorare needed to see this picture.

11. India - Belgium Brussels, 18th May 2005 12. India - Netherlands The Hague, 17th May 2005 13. India - Qatar New Delhi, 12th May 2005 14. India - Oman New Delhi, 27th April 2005 15. India - USA New Delhi, 14th April 2005 16 .India - UK New Delhi, 13th April 2005 17. Indi

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