Estimating Air Pollution Emission Abatement Potential In .
REPO RTEstimating air pollutionemission abatementpotential in Sweden 2030Stefan Åström, Tomas Gustafsson, Maria Lindblad,Peter Stigson, and Karin KindbomB 2098June 2013The report approved:2013-07-12John MuntheVice President, Research
OrganizationIVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd.AddressP.O. Box 21060SE-100 31 StockholmReport SummaryProject titleÅtgärdspotential för luftutsläpp till 2030(NV-04257-12)Project sponsorSwedish Environmental ProtectionAgency, Swedish Clean air ResearchProgrammeTelephone 46 (0)8-598 563 00AuthorStefan Åström, Tomas Gustafsson, Maria Lindblad, Peter Stigson, and Karin KindbomTitle and subtitle of the reportEstimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030SummaryThe two principal aims with this project was to adjust the discrepancy between Swedish officialair pollution emission projections and scenarios for Sweden developed by other internationalinstitutions, and to analyse the emission abatement potential in Sweden by 2030.Data used to support the Swedish official emission projections was collected and reformattedto enable a comparison with scenario data for Swedish emissions developed by IIASA. Theresults of this comparison were discussed with IIASA during the bilateral consultation carriedout as a part of the on-going revision of the EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution. In parallelto this consultation, the potential for further emission abatement in Sweden by 2030 wasanalysed by interviewing representatives of power plants and large industrial facilities.The comparison with IIASA emission scenarios for Sweden identified that much of thedifferences between Swedish projections and IIASA emission scenarios originate from thetransport sector, small scale domestic combustion in households, as well as from burning ofagricultural waste. The potential for NO x emission abatement was estimated for the sectors:power plants; refineries; pulp & paper industries; and the iron & steel industry. If all plants inthese sectors were to use the best available technology in 2030, NO x emissions could bereduced by some 13 kton NO x , or 38% of the 35 kton emissions projected from thesesectors by 2030. Abatement costs could in this project only be estimated for 2.3 kton. Forthese, the abatement cost would be 170 million Swedish crowns per year.KeywordAir pollution, emission abatement, emission scenarioBibliographic dataIVL Report B 2098The report can be ordered viaHomepage: www.ivl.se, e-mail: publicationservice@ivl.se, fax 46 (0)8-598 563 90, or via IVL, P.O. Box 21060,SE-100 31 Stockholm Sweden
Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030IVL report B 2098AbstractThis report presents the results from the project “Åtgärdspotential för luftutsläpp till2030 / Emission abatement potential for air pollution in Sweden by 2030”, financed by theSwedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish Clean Air ResearchProgramme (SCARP). The main objective of the project was to support Sweden s positionin the on-going revision of the EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution (TSAP) includingthe bilateral consultations on emission projections and abatement potentials. There weretwo specific aims in the project. One was to adjust the discrepancy between Swedishofficial air pollution emission projections and the scenarios for Sweden developed by otherinternational institutions. The other aim was to analyse the emission abatement potential inSweden by 2030. The air pollutants initially considered were NO x , SO 2 , NH 3 , PM 2.5 , andNMVOC.An extensive background data compilation covering the sectors contributing to airpollutant emissions in Sweden was performed. The data compilation served to provide adata set in a GAINS model 1 format identical to the data set used in the development of theofficially reported Swedish emission projection. Data on energy demand and supply,transport activities, and industrial as well as agricultural activities were collected from theSwedish Energy Agency, the Swedish Road Administration and the SwedishEnvironmental Protection Agency, as well as directly from the project responsible forproducing the official Swedish emission projection (SMED 2). Having acquired this dataset,the data was re-aggregated and re-allocated to fit the GAINS model format, which wasnecessary for a fruitful comparison with the IIASA baseline scenario and the bilateralconsultation with IIASA. The comparison had its main focus on the pollutants NO x andPM 2.5 , and the sectors transport and small scale domestic combustion in households. It wasnot feasible to cover all sectors and all pollutants during the bilateral consultation, althoughsome additional comparisons were made (inter alia NMVOC).During the bilateral consultation it was identified that there are differences between theSwedish emission projection and the IIASA baseline scenario in reported (base year data)and projected data on fuel use, emission factors, and use of emission control technologiesin the road and non-road transport sectors. There is also a difference in the assumed boilerstructure (and type of boilers) for domestic small scale domestic combustion. The use ofemission control technologies in large scale combustion plants also differs betweennational estimates and IIASA calculations. We also noted that emissions from burning ofagricultural waste are included in the IIASA baseline scenario but not in the Swedishemission projection. Burning of agricultural waste is in the IIASA baseline scenario wasassigned around 1 kton of PM 2.5 emissions, or some 5 % of the total projected SwedishPM 2.5 emissions in 2030.1The GAINS model assesses strategies that reduce emissions of multiple air pollutants and greenhousegases at least costs, and minimize their negative effects on human health, ecosystems and climatechange Programs/GAINS.en.html ,as of 2013-0404)2http://www.smed.se/, as of 2013-04-041
Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030IVL report B 2098In order to estimate the current and future use of emission control technologies and theemission abatement potential for stationary combustion in Sweden interviews wereperformed using email questionnaires with representatives for the 111 Large CombustionPlants (LCP) mandated to report official environmental information in accordance with theEuropean Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (EPRTR) directive. The interviewanswers were translated and aggregated to a suitable format. These aggregated interviewanswers were then used as a basis for estimating a national use of NO x emission controltechnologies in Sweden in large scale combustion. As an indication of the potential forfurther emission reductions in Sweden beyond the Swedish emission projection wecalculated the maximum technical feasible emission abatement (MTFR) potential fromLCP:s and other combustion plants in Sweden. This potential was calculated as thedifference between actual emission reductions derived from the questionnaire answers andthe MTFR technological ambition level as specified in an ambitious IIASA scenario. Weused the projected Swedish energy balance in the Swedish emission projection as basis forthe emission calculations. PM 2.5 emission abatement potential for small scale domesticcombustion was estimated by replacing the emission factor used in the Swedish emissionprojection with the emission factor used in the IIASA baseline scenario.Regarding the estimated emission abatement potential, the interview answers providedsupport to estimate NO x emission abatement potential. For the other pollutants, theanswers were not possible to translate into quantitative estimates. NO x emission abatementpotential was estimated for the sectors: power plants; refineries; pulp & paper industries;and the iron & steel industry. Emission abatement costs were calculated for some sectors.If all plants in these sectors were to use the best available technology in 2030, as defined inIIASA TSAP report #1 3, NO x emissions would in our central analysis be reduced by some13 kton NO x , or 38% of the 35 kton expected from these sectors by 2030. In a sensitivityanalysis, the corresponding NO x emission abatement was 10 kton (33%). For the sectorswhere we could estimate emission abatement costs, the additional annual abatement costsfor reducing 2.3 kton of NO x emissions would be 170 million Swedish crowns, whencalculated with the GAINS model 4 method. Unit abatement cost was some 71 Swedishcrowns / kg NO x . In order to get an additional comparison we discussed the results withIIASA experts. The comparative results calculated by IIASA experts based on scenarios inthe IIASA TSAP report #10 5, gave a NO x emission abatement potential of 9 kton, or 20%of the 44 kton NO x emissions expected in the IIASA scenario. The IIASA results for thesectors where emission abatement costs were calculated was an emission reductionpotential of 6.6 kton of NO x to a cost of 260 million Swedish crowns, corresponding toan average 39 Swedish crowns / kg NO x (ranging between 22 – 184 crowns for thesubsectors). The difference between the 35 kton NO x in the Swedish projection and the 44kton NO x calculated in the IIASA scenario are caused mainly by different perspectives onthe expected use of emission control technology in 2030, but also by different projectionson economic activity and fuel use in the sectors, and by different approaches to allocationemission between sectors.3(Amann et al., archPrograms/GAINS.en.html, as of 2013-07-085(Amann et al., 2013)42
Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030IVL report B 2098Estimated NO x emission reduction potential and abatement costs in Swedish large stationaryinstallations 2030 – Central analysis (incl. cost efficiency in sensitivity analysis)SectorMost prominent measuresCostAggregated efficiencyBSLMTFREmission Reduction costinemissions emissions reduction costefficiency sensitivityktonktonktonMSEKSEK / kgNO xSEK / kgNO xPower plantsCombustion modification,selective- and nonselective catalytic ted measures:Selective- and nonselective catalytic reduction0.330.320.014446(735)Industry,process &energy relatedemissionsPulp & Paper and Iron &Steel measures:Combustion modification,selective- and nonselective catalytic reduction25.214.011.2***35.321.813.5Total*No emission abatement costs are calculated for emission reduction from processes in this version of theGAINS modelFor industrial emission sources we could not disaggregate emissions or estimate emissionabatement costs. For the other sectors, the cost efficiency range provided a rough estimateon the cost efficiency if the emission reduction potential (due to different economic andenergy development) would be on the lower range of the potential. Our results indicatedthat the most cost effective NO x emission abatement will be available in power plants2030.The overall conclusion drawn from the bilateral consultation with IIASA was that some ofthe discrepancies between the IIASA baseline scenario and the Swedish official emissionprojection can be avoided by adjusting the IIASA baseline scenario to better representspecific Swedish conditions. This solution applies mainly to the use of emission controltechnologies in vehicles in 2010 for the transport sector and the boiler structure and use ofemission control for small scale domestic combustion in households. The discrepancy inemission factors for the transport sector would need further motivation before adjustmentof the IIASA baseline scenario. Other differences, such as growth in fuel use and futurerenewal of the vehicle fleet, are scenario-specific and should for consistency not beadjusted in an effort to make emission levels calculated in the IIASA baseline scenario tobetter match the emission levels in the Swedish emission projection.It can also be concluded that there is additional potential for Swedish NO x emissionabatement in the sectors: power plants; refineries; pulp & paper industries; and the iron &steel industry, in 2030. It is also likely that there will be additional Swedish PM 2.5 emissionabatement potential from small scale domestic combustion. The results from the interviewswith representatives of the LCP:s indicated that there are differences between the IIASA3
Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030IVL report B 2098baseline scenario and the plant-specific information regarding the current and future use ofemission control technologies in Sweden. This report has focused mainly on technical endof-pipe emission abatement potential for some of the Swedish pollution sources, and thepollutants NO x and PM 2.5 . Further analysis is needed to develop a complete nationalestimate for SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 , PM 2.5 as well as NMVOC.Thanks to the bilateral consultation and the adjustments made at IIASA after thisconsultation, the largest part of the discrepancy between the Swedish emission projectionand following IIASA scenarios are mainly due to different views between Sweden and theEuropean Commission on future economic growth, fuel prices, energy demand, andturnover of the vehicle fleet.4
Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030IVL report B 2098ContentsIntroduction .6Background .7Materials and Method .9Delimitations .9Review of discrepancies between SWE BSL projection and IIASA BSL scenario .9Data compilation . 10Data treatment . 11National data and emission calculations in the GAINS model . 11Estimating emission abatement potential. 12Emission abatement potential in LCP:s . 12Small scale domestic combustion . 15Results. 16Most important identified differences between the SWE BSL projection and IIASA BSLscenario. 16Small scale domestic combustion . 16Road transport . 17Non-road Mobile Machinery (excl. shipping) . 17Other sectors . 18Identified emission abatement potentials . 18Large scale combustion. 18Small scale domestic combustion . 20Other results – Interview answers . 21Discussion . 23References . 25Appendix 1: A summary of the Sweden / IIASA bilateral consultation, 121108 . 27Appendix 2 – Road and non-road transport characteristics . 305
Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030IVL report B 2098IntroductionThis report present the results from the project “Åtgärdspotential för luftutsläpp till 2030 /Emission abatement potential for air pollution in Sweden by 2030”, financed by theSwedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish Clean Air ResearchProgramme (SCARP). The project was performed as support to the Swedish positionsduring the on-going (2013) review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP)(European Commission, 2005), and the EU National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NEC)(Official Journal of the European Union, 2001).To support this revision, the European Commission (EC) is preparing decision support forthe EU member states. Parts of this decision support are air pollution emissions-, andemission control cost scenarios for the EU countries and the following air pollutants:Sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), Nitrogen oxides (NO X ), Ammonia (NH 3 ), Non-Methane VolatileOrganic Compounds (NMVOC), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). However, thesescenarios are not aligned with corresponding Swedish projections and needs furthernational review and alignment. To facilitate the TSAP & NEC revision process the ECarranged the opportunity for the EU member states to participate in bilateral consultationswith the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) during autumn 2012.During these bilateral consultations results and assumptions in the IIASA scenarios couldbe reviewed by national experts for potential adjustments. For an active Swedishparticipation in the revision of the TSAP & NEC it is therefore necessary to perform adetailed comparison between the IIASA scenarios and the Swedish emission projection,and to suggest adjustments where suitable. It is also important to estimate the Swedishemission abatement potential in 2030.There were two principle aims with this project. The first was to review and adjust thediscrepancy between the emission scenarios produced by IIASA and the official Swedishemission projections. The identified causes for the discrepancies between the scenario andprojection should then serve as input to an adjusted IIASA scenario for Sweden. TheIIASA scenario and the Swedish projection should be aligned with respect to emissionfactors and the use of emission control technologies. The second aim was to analyse theSwedish emission abatement potential in 2030. The overall objective with the project wasthat that the results from this project would be useful as a part of the Swedish decisionsupport during the revision of the TSAP & NEC.The key research questions were the following: What are the main sources for discrepancies between Swedish official air pollutionemission projections and emission projections/scenarios for Sweden developed byinternational institutions? How can these discrepancies be avoided?What is the emission abatement potential on top of already expected emissionreductions in Sweden by 2030?6
Estimating air pollution emission abatement potential in Sweden 2030IVL report B 2098BackgroundThe emission scenarios developed as decision support are created in the GAINS model,which is developed by IIASA (Amann et al., 2004, 200
of the IIASA baseline scenario. Other differences, such as growth in fuel use and future renewal of the vehicle fleet, are scenario-specific and should for consistency not be adjusted in an effort to make emission levels calculated in the IIASA baseline scenario to better match the emission levels in the Swedish emission projection.
† Air pollution reduces plant biodiversity and affects other ecosystem services, such as clean water, recreational activities and carbon storage. † Air pollution contributes to climate change, hence air pollution abatement policies have co-benefits for climate change abatement policies. Although air pollution abatement policies have been
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ensure compliance. The abatement cost approach informs decision-making by estimating the value of such changes in abatement activity. For increases in pollution the abatement cost reflects the associated increase in the cost of action while for reductions in pollution it reflects a benefit in terms of avoided costs of action.
1.3 Download Abatement Plan Template in S&CAP After the Facility or Region Staff has created an Abatement Plan (Section 1.2), the Abatement Plan Template can be downloaded as an Excel (.xls) file. The Abatement Plan Template Excel (.xls) file will contain all the Safety I
1.3 Download Abatement Plan Template in S&CAP After the Facility or Region Staff has created an Abatement Plan (Section 1.2), the Abatement Plan Template can be downloaded as an Excel (.xls) file. The Abatement Plan Template Excel (.xls) file will contain all the Safety Inspection's reported deficiencies that need to be abated.
In typical conditions, regional pollution transport constitutes 28-36% of PM 2.5 pollution in the city, and the local pollution emission constitutes 64-72% In local emissions, automobile exhaust constitutes 31.1%, coal combustion emission constitutes 22.4%, industrial pollution emission constitutes 18.1%, fugitive dust
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