Fifth ASISA Insurance Gap Study

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Fifth ASISA Insurance Gap Study(performed by True South Actuaries & Consultants)www.truesouth.co.zaOctober 2019Slide 1 of 29

ContextAgendaMethodologyR34.7 trillionResponsesSegmentsMethodologyR34.7 trillionResponsesSegmentswww.truesouth.co.zaR34.7 trillion(A trillion has 12 zeros)ContextSlide 2 of 29

ContextContext within the SA population landscapeMethodologyR34.7 trillionResponsesSegmentswww.truesouth.co.za57.5 million people,but how manyearners?57.5 million people inSouth AfricaSlide 3 of 29

ContextContext within the SA population landscapeMethodologyR34.7 trillionResponsesSegmentswww.truesouth.co.za 18’s: 34% 65’s: 5%57.5 34.9millionpeople inmillionSouth18Africaagedto 65Slide 4 of 29

ContextContext within the SA population landscapeMethodologyR34.7 s representaround ¼ of SApopulation15.6 millionearnersSlide 5 of 29

ContextContext within the SA population landscapeMethodologyR34.7 6 millionNextNextNext3.1m earners 3.1m2.6m2.6mNext3.1mwww.truesouth.co.zaDiversity in SA:difficult to grasp“Average Earner”RichestPoorest2.6m3.1mSlide 6 of 29

ContextMethodologyMethodologyR34.7 er20% (R3.1m)richest SA earnersPoorestRichest2.6m3.1mSlide 7 of 29

ContextMethodologyMethodology is needed?R34.7 trillionResponsesSegments1 600 0001 400 0001 200 000PoorestRichest2.6m3.1m1 000 000800 000600 000400 000200 000www.truesouth.co.za2039 (62)2037 (60)2035 (58)2033 (56)2031 (54)2029 (52)2027 (50)2025 (48)2023 (46)2021 (44)2019 (42)-Average expectedearnings profile1 800 000Slide 8 of 29

ContextMethodology: Insurance NeedMethodologyHow much insurance is needed?ResponsesSegments1 800 00020% Richest SAearners earnR620K p.a.Need for insuranceEarningsR34.7 trillion1 600 000R0.6m1 400 0001 200 0001 000 000800 000600 000400 000200 000www.truesouth.co.za2039 (62)2037 (60)2035 (58)2033 (56)2031 (54)2029 (52)2027 (50)2025 (48)2023 (46)2021 (44)2019 (42)-Slide 9 of 29

ContextMethodology: Insurance NeedMethodologyHow much insurance is needed?Responses1 600 000R0.6m1 400 00054%1 200 0001 000 000800 000600 000400 000200 000www.truesouth.co.za2039 (62)2037 (60)2035 (58)2033 (56)2031 (54)2029 (52)2027 (50)2025 (48)2023 (46)2021 (44)2019 (42)-On average 54% ofearnings at riskReplacement requirementSegments1 800 000Need for insuranceEarningsR34.7 trillionSlide 10 of 29

ContextMethodology: Insurance NeedMethodologyHow much insurance is needed?ResponsesCapitalisation factor1 600 000R0.6m1 400 00054%1 200 00013.81 000 000800 000600 000400 000200 000www.truesouth.co.za2039 (62)2037 (60)2035 (58)2033 (56)2031 (54)2029 (52)2027 (50)2025 (48)2023 (46)2021 (44)2019 (42)-All future years needto be provided forReplacement requirementSegments1 800 000Need for insuranceEarningsR34.7 trillionSlide 11 of 29

ContextMethodology: Insurance NeedMethodologyHow much insurance is needed?ResponsesCapitalisation factorInsurance need1 600 000R0.6m1 400 00054%1 200 00013.8R4.6m1 000 000800 000600 000400 000200 000www.truesouth.co.za2039 (62)2037 (60)2035 (58)2033 (56)2031 (54)2029 (52)2027 (50)2025 (48)2023 (46)2021 (44)2019 (42)-At the “high end”,average need forinsurance: R4.6m Replacement requirementSegments1 800 000Need for insuranceEarningsR34.7 trillionSlide 12 of 29

ContextMethodology: Actual CoverMethodologyTotal insurance coverResponsesSegmentsActual insuranceR0.6mRetailR1.5mReplacement requirement54%Group LifeR0.8mCapitalisation factor13.8Government grantsR0.0mTotalR2.3mInsurance needwww.truesouth.co.zaR4.6m but average actualinsurance over isonly R2.3mNeed for insuranceEarningsR34.7 trillionSlide 13 of 29

ContextMethodology: Insurance GapMethodologyR34.7 trillionInsurance Gap Insurance Need – Actual CoverActual insuranceR0.6mRetailR1.5mReplacement requirement54%Group LifeR0.8mCapitalisation factor13.8Government grantsR0.0mTotalR2.3mInsurance needR4.6mR4.6m – R2.3m R2.3mAverage death insurance gap for richest 20% of SA earning populationwww.truesouth.co.zaAverage gap:R2.3m per earnerEarningsSegments(Those earning R620k)Need for insuranceResponsesSlide 14 of 29

ContextMethodologyR34.7 trillion (R15.4tn death gap)R34.7 alGAPAdequacyof coverPoorest 20%R0.1mR0.0mR0.1m3.1mR0.3tn3%Next 20%R0.5mR0.0mR0.4m3.1mR1.4tn6%Next 20%R0.9mR0.1mR0.8m3.1mR2.4tn15%Next 20%R1.7mR0.4mR1.3m3.1mR4.1tn24%Richest esouth.co.za37%Averagegap:R1 trillion:Stack of R100pernotesearnerfrom CapeR2.3mTown to BloemfonteinAverageActual(Those earning R620k)AverageNeedSlide 15 of 29

ContextMethodologyR34.7 trillion (R19.3tn disability gap)R34.7 mberpeopleTotalGAPAdequacyof coverPoorest 20%R0.3mR0.5mR-0.2m3.1m-R0.6tn 100%Next 20%R0.8mR0.5mR0.4m3.1mR1.1tn56%Next 20%R1.4mR0.5mR0.9m3.1mR2.7tn39%Next 20%R2.6mR0.8mR1.8m3.1mR5.6tn31%Richest uesouth.co.za46%R1 trillion:Stack of R100 notes from CapeTown to BloemfonteinAverageNeedSlide 16 of 29

ContextR34.7 trillion (R15.4tn death gap R19.3tn disability gap)MethodologyR34.7 xt5.6tn2.6m2.7tn19.3tnDeath Gap: R15.4tnDisability : R19.3tnTotal: R34.7tnDeathSlide 17 of 29

Slide 18 of 29R6 475www.truesouth.co.za(extra income)Seek EmploymentR5 36224%(% reduction)Cut expenses32%2.6%4.6%(% earnings)Buy R34.7 trillionMethodologyContextReactive responses to theA pro-active response to theinsurance gap include cuttinginsurance gap is to buyexpenses or seeking additionaladditional death & disabilityemployment after thecover.death/disability event.

ContextMethodologySegmentsR34.7 xt5.6tn2.6m2.7tn19.3tnDeath Gap: R15.4tnDisability : R19.3tnTotal: R34.7tnDeathSlide 19 of 29

ContextMethodologySegments (Middle group only)R34.7 xt5.6tn2.6m2.7tnDeath Gap: R2.4tnDisability : R2.7tnTotal: R5.1tnDeath19.3tnSlide 20 of 29

ContextDeath Gap: Effect of AgeMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacyof 2%55 .1mR2.4tn15%www.truesouth.co.zaAdequacy of life coverincreases in line with age(possibly due to lump sum natureof risk cover)AverageNeedSlide 21 of 29

ContextDisability Gap: Effect of AgeMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacyof 40%55 1mR2.7tn39%www.truesouth.co.zaAdequacy of disability cover isrelatively similar across age forthe middle income groupAverageNeedSlide 22 of 29

ContextDeath Gap: Effect of EducationMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacyof coverPS or lowerR0.6mR0.1mR0.5m0.3mR0.2tn16%Some .8m3.1mR2.4tn15%www.truesouth.co.zaCover adequacy is much higherfor the group with a degree asthe highest education levelAverageNeedSlide 23 of 29

ContextDisability Gap: Effect of EducationMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacyof coverPS or lowerR0.9mR0.3mR0.6m0.3mR0.2tn34%Some .9m3.1mR2.7tn39%www.truesouth.co.zaCover adequacy is slightly higherfor the group with a degree asthe highest education levelAverageNeedSlide 24 of 29

ContextDeath Gap: Effect of GeographyMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacy ofcoverGautengR0.9mR0.1mR0.8m1.1mR0.9tn17%Western R0.1mR0.8m0.5mR0.4tn12%Eastern CapeR1.0mR0.1mR0.9m0.2mR0.2tn13%North WestR0.8mR0.1mR0.7m0.1mR0.1tn12%Free tn7%Northern 8m3.1mR2.4tn15%www.truesouth.co.zaDeath cover adequacy for themiddle income group is highestin Gauteng and Western CapeAverageNeedSlide 25 of 29

ContextDisability Gap: Effect of GeographyMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacy ofcoverGautengR1.4mR0.5mR0.8m1.1mR1.0tn39%Western R0.6mR0.9m0.5mR0.5tn39%Eastern CapeR1.5mR0.6mR0.9m0.2mR0.2tn42%North WestR1.3mR0.5mR0.8m0.1mR0.1tn37%Free 2tn28%Northern 9m3.1mR2.7tn39%www.truesouth.co.zaDisability cover adequacy for themiddle income group is highestin Western and Eastern CapeAverageNeedSlide 26 of 29

ContextDeath Gap: Effect of GenderMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacyof n15%www.truesouth.co.zaCover adequacy is fairly similarfor male and female earnersAverageNeedSlide 27 of 29

ContextDisability Gap: Effect of GenderMethodologyMiddle income group aloneResponsesR34.7 eTotalGAPAdequacyof n39%www.truesouth.co.zaCover adequacy is fairly similarfor male and female earnersAverageNeedSlide 28 of 29

ContextQuestionsMethodologyR34.7 trillionResponsesSegments“Provision for others is afundamental responsibility of human life.”(Woodrow T. Wilson – 28th American President)www.truesouth.co.zaSlide 29 of 29

Insurance Gap Insurance Need -Actual Cover gap: k) www.truesouth.co.za Need for insurance Earnings R0.6m Replacement requirement 54% Capitalisation factor 13.8 Insurance need R4.6m Actual insurance Retail R1.5m Group Life R0.8m Government grants R0.0m Total R2.3m R4.6m -R2.3m R2.3m Average death insurance gap for richest 20% of SA .

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