From The Ocean To Humans: Integrated Modeling Of Oil Spill Impacts
SYNTHESIS SERIESFROM THE OCEAN TO HUMANS: INTEGRATEDMODELING OF OIL SPILL IMPACTSMonica Wilson, Danielle Bailey, Emily Maung-Douglass, Melissa Partyka,Stephen Sempier, and Tara SkeltonSince the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, scientists have gained awealth of new knowledge about the oil spill’s impacts to the oceanenvironment and its ecosystems in addition to humans livingnear the shore. Understanding a wider range of possible effectshas greatly improved scientists’ ability to model impacts of futurespills. Scientists examined existing models and stakeholder needsto enhance efforts towards integrating models of oil spill impactsto help inform plans and decisions for future oil spill response.EVERY THING ISCONNECTEDThe Gulf of Mexico’s ocean andcoastal environments and thelifestyles and economies associatedwith them are deeply connected.The region is known for seafood,recreational fishing, beachdestinations, and is a highway formarine vessels. It also producesmuch of the oil used and exportedby the United States. The Gulf is amarine system that often has tocope with multiple stressors, suchThe purpose of this publicationis to exclusively reflect findingsfrom synthesis activitiessupported by the Gulf of MexicoResearch Initiative (GoMRI).GoMRI synthesis documentsare the primary references forthis publication. The summarymay also include peer-reviewedpublications and other reportscited in the GoMRI synthesisactivities that help to providefoundation for the topic.as oil spills, hurricanes, stormwaterand agricultural runoff, andindustrial pollution. Because of itsability to withstand adversity andrecover from disasters or stress isgreatly affected by the interactionsof humans and nature, peoplecan play a key role in helping findsolutions to keep the Gulf healthy.1A 10-year period of research fundedby the Gulf of Mexico ResearchInitiative (GoMRI) that followedthe Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oilspill produced more knowledgeabout the Gulf than ever before,knowledge that can help us findthose solutions.Scientists continue to assess theimpacts of oil spills on the oceanenvironment, biological ecosystems,socioeconomics, and human health.(Top left, Carol Highsmith; top right,Jaishree Beedasy; bottom left, NURC/UNCW ; bottom right, GiSR/LauraSpencer)
SYSTEM INTER ACTIONSThe Gulf of Mexico is a complexsystem made up of physical,biological, geological, chemical,ecological, and human components.These components areinterconnected—they all affect andare affected by the environmentand each other. Because theseconnections are complex, someof their links are only now beingunderstood. Much is still unknown.Computer models are tools that canhelp tease out these connections.Scientists need to better understandthe interactions within the Gulfof Mexico before they can createmodels useful for oil spill planningand response. However, this is nosimple task.The ocean environment is dominatedby physical processes, like circulation and mixing, that move materials,such as oil or pollutants, throughoutthe water. Those materials are thenchanged through biological andchemical processes to help makethem available as a potential food orenergy source to living organisms.Living organisms provide food, energy, transportation, and recreation tohumans living nearby, supporting thelifestyles and economies of coastalcommunities. The social and economic condition of coastal communities ultimately influence the physicaland mental health of residents. Bothcan affect how people use livingresources, creating interconnections(also called feedback loops) amongthe ecosystems of the Gulf of Mexicoas well as human health and socioeconomic systems. Scientific understanding of how these systems interact directly affects people’s abilityto effectively manage responses tofuture disasters.1TACTICAL VERSUS STR ATEGIC MODELINGScientists develop some models for tactical reasons and others formore strategic reasons. As the names imply, tactical models focuson specific short-term actions while strategic models focus on thebig picture with a long-term goal in mind. The difference betweentactical and strategic models is most relevant in terms of the purpose of the model and user perspective. Tactical models run overshort time scales (hours or days), when circulation and mixing dominate, making them great tools for response planners to predict theoil’s path in the near future.Strategic models offer a plan to merge many different types ofinformation, which often comes from two or more research disciplines. They operate on times scales of weeks, years, or decadesand are used for damage assessment and recovery planning.These tools are best suited for resource managers and scientists.aINTEGR ATED MODELINGIntegrated modeling is based oninformation shared between two ormore modeling systems that generates an understanding of how theyare connected. In the past decade,scientists have learned about theinteractions between ocean physics,chemistry, biology, and human socioeconomic systems by developingintegrated models.a,1 For example,scientists paired models that simulate the speed of water currents withdeep-sea oil and gas spill modelsto track the movement of oil underwater after the DWH spill. Theyalso coupled different models thatincluded the movement of larvae,impacts of oil on marine organisms,and population dynamics to studythe fate of oil. In some cases, scientists used models to link marine populations and humans through effectssuch as job loss and services liketourism and commercial fishing.a,1As part of a final analysis of theGoMRI program, scientists combedthrough peer-reviewed publications,websites, technical reports, bookchapters, and conference proceed2ings for advancements in integrated modeling. In sources publishedbetween 2010 and 2020, scientistsfound 330 DWH oil spill models funded by many sources, includingGoMRI and the Natural ResourceDamage Assessment (NRDA) program. They categorized the modelsinto the following four domains: Ocean environment—includesmodels of ocean, atmosphere,biology, chemistry, temperature,and water movement, and processes that control the movement of oil. Biological ecosystems—includesmodels that connect organismsgeographically and by their placeon the food web. Socioeconomics—includesmodels of economic impactsacross different regions as wellas non-economic impacts onsociety. Human health—includes modelsof acute and persistent physicaland mental health impacts, aswell as the consequences of prolonged and growing stress.
FIGURE 1. This schematic outlines the four domains that address questions relating to oil spill science to help develop adiagram to visualize connections between fields to be linked. The arrows show the connections between spill response and thefour domains as well as how the four domains interact with one another.b (Reprinted from Solo-Gabriele et al., 2021)These domains were used as aninitial step to identify the areas ofscience needed to address the impacts and effects of oil spill response(Figure 1).a,bMost of the DWH research (65%)used models to study water circulation, mixing, oil plume dynamics, andparticle movement. Many includedchemistry. Twenty-two percent ofthe studies used models couplingphysics and biology, including oceancirculation models, to track fish eggsand larvae. Studies that used biological models (5%) included population and individual-based modelsfor marine animals. The remainingstudies (5%) used a combination ofmodels for ocean physics, biochemistry, and human socioeconomicsystems. Some (or most) of thesestudies paired oil fate models withan ecosystem model to include oilspreading, burial, evaporation, andbreakdown by organisms. Resultsfrom these models estimate potential impacts on human beings,seafood markets, food security, toxinlevels, environmental services, andsome shore-based industries.aNatural and human systemsSome studies address the overlapbetween natural and human systems. Although scientists often basesocioeconomic impacts from disasters on fisheries and shore-basedindustries like ports and shipyards,recreational facilities should alsobe considered. However, models that include these factors arescarce, suggesting that connectingocean-ecosystem models to humansystem models should be a highpriority for future research. To help,scientists came up with strategiesto improve future studies. The firststrategy pairs existing ocean-ecosystem and economic models. Thesecond creates new health and3socioeconomic models that addressimportant feedback loops betweenmental and physical health and socioeconomic activity. The third strategy incorporates socioeconomicsand human health to assess potentialimpacts from decisions made duringand after oil spill cleanup efforts andpossible long-term effects.aGoMRI-funded modeling effortshave focused on developing andexploring a useful structure forresponse decision making to minimize long-term impacts to societyfrom oil spills.2 This approach allowsscientists to consider how an oilspill affects the entire Gulf of Mexico, nature and humans. Scientistsexplored interactions among thesedomains by gathering informationfrom stakeholders, including inputfrom experts about existing models,and combining information througha system dynamics approach.b
SYSTEM DYNAMICSSystem dynamics is a modeling technique used to understand anddiscuss complex systems, issues, or procedures. It ignores the finedetails to focus on how the system works overall. It specifically focuses on modeling series of cause and effect, also known as feedback loops. System dynamics works to place real-life scenarios intocomputer models to show how decision-making policies influencestructure and performance.3CAUSAL LOOP DIAGR AMBuilding a system dynamics modeloften includes the developmentof a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). ACLD helps visualize the connectionsamong the systems or fields to belinked. Displayed as flow diagrams,they have arrows that show howdifferent factors influence andinteract with each other. CLDsprovide a high-level overview ofthe system, making them idealfor looking at complex systems ina way that is easy to understand.GoMRI-funded scientists developeda CLD for impacts of marine oil spillresponse tactics to view, link, andidentify data gaps in hopes thatthey will apply to oil spills in general(Figure 2).bThe CLD also helps assess damagesto the environment, ecosystems, andhuman health systems and exploresthe financial consequences of thosedamages. The four domains—oceanenvironment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and humanhealth—provide a starting point toidentify the fields of science neededto address oil spill impacts as well aseffects of response actions. Thesefour domains help to separate themodeling of oil spill impacts into distinct sets of related and overlappingdisciplines (Table 1).bThe Gulf of Mexico system naturallyseparates into two groups, the domains for ocean environment (bluearrows) and biological ecosystems(green arrows) and the domains forsocioeconomics (teal arrows) andFIGURE 2. This diagram depicts the interconnections among the ocean environment (blue arrows), biological ecosystems(green arrows), socioeconomics (teal arrows), and human health (pink arrows) that can help inform the response communitywhen they prepare and plan for oil spills. The number of arrowheads and line thickness represent time scales of impacts.Three arrowheads with thicker lines represent long/slow time scales, two arrowheads represent medium timescales, and onearrowhead with thin lines represent short/fast timescales.b (Reprinted from Solo-Gabriele et al., 2021)4
TABLE 1. Each area of study in an integrated model requires a different setof expertise and knowledge.MODELOcean EnvironmentEXPERTISE NEEDEDOceanography, climate science, pollution movement, physics, geology chemistry, and biologyBiological Ecosystems Ecology, microbiology, marine sciences, zoology,botany, fisheries, and veterinary sciencesSocioeconomicsEconomics, anthropology, sociology, psychology,and communication studiesHuman HealthEnvironmental health science, public health,medicine, physiology, as well as the study ofgenes and the use of statistics to map riskfactors and health trendshuman health (pink arrows) (Figure 2). The ocean environment andecosystem models could be used toprovide input to the human healthand socioeconomic systems andvice versa. The CLD also shows howhuman systems link to governmentregulations related to spill responseefforts. Because connections between physics and biology are fairlywell understood, advancements inmodeling the ocean environmentand biological ecosystems havegreatly outpaced advancementsfor the socioeconomic and humanhealth domains. The latter are still inthe early stages of development.bCausal Loop DiagramobservationsOcean environmentlarger socio-ecological system. Mostpeople understand that forecastsfrom short-term operationalmodels inform immediate responseactions such as protecting sensitiveresources. However, operationalmodel forecasts and the actionsbased upon them can also influencesocioeconomics and human healthdomains. These outcomes, in turn,influence regulations through publicperceptions of impacts, which canfurther affect operational responses.The CLD also illustrates that mediacoverage can influence humanperceptions, and these perceptionscan impact planning, responsecapacity, and cleanup efforts. Allof these interactions can affectthe amount of oil that remains inthe ocean.bThe CLD illustrates a number ofconnections between the oceanenvironment and oil spill response(gray arrows) (Figure 2). Shortterm links would include immediatepreparedness and cleanup effortsin oil spill response. Long-termlinks would show how the oceanenvironment connects with theBiological ecosystemsThe biological ecosystemportion of the CLD doesnot include importantaspects suchas differentpositionson thefood webor themanyconnections between species. Bykeeping the illustrations uncomplicated, the focus is on the links between oil and living organisms. It alsoshows connections between biological ecosystems and socioeconomics, for example, through seafoodsafety or human contact with oil onthe beach. The CLD also shows thatoil contamination can be ongoingdue to oil-based toxins entering thewater when freed from sedimentscontaining sunken oil. Scientistsexplained the importance of seeingthese connections as a means to improve knowledge and inform actionsin several areas: Those who are interested canhave a better understandingabout the flow of effects triggered after a spill. The response community canmake better estimates of shortand long-term effects thatinform injury assessments andrestoration planning. Resource managers can betteridentify effects on non-marketecosystem services, such asprotection from storm surgesand access to recreation.Although the ocean environmentand biological ecosystems havemany significant feedback loopswithin their individual domains,processes between the domains5
influence them both. For example,ocean currents impact how oilcirculates, causing the oil to spreadand affect marine life. Biologicalecosystems that spread oil evenfurther within the ecosystem canalso influence oil’s path in the oceanenvironment. An example of thiswould be when microbes breakdown oil in the water, changing howthe oil floats and moves.bSocioeconomicsOil spills and response can affectvarious components within thesocioeconomic domain, includingecosystem services (tan arrows)(Figure 2), seafood harvest,seafood prices, seafood industrycapacity, and people’s incomeand employment. When oil hitsa shoreline, it may cause beachclosures, which impact tourism,employment, and income. Beachoiling and subsequent closuresare linked to human physical andmental health, which can directlyimpact people’s productivity.Other spill response actions suchas the closure of fishing groundscould lead to less seafood caught,loss of jobs in the charter fishingindustry, and the closure of beaches,affecting tourism. The informationthat the public receives related toseafood safety can lower consumerconfidence, market demands, andseafood prices. All of these impactsare tied to human welfare, affectingthe productivity and the health ofindividuals and the community asa whole. The diagrams show thelinks between socioeconomics andhuman healthcan be very complex after anoil spill.bHuman healthInformation from operational models that simulate short-term or serious effects from oil spills can influence the forecasts for longer-termimpacts on individual and community health. Typically, direct exposureto oil spill toxins occurs during cleanup efforts, eating contaminatedseafood, and using oiled beaches.bHowever, impacts to human healthare not limited to physical illnesses.Physical and mental health effectshave been reported to be closelyrelated to disasters due to the stressthey put on the environment andcommunities.4 Activities that canimpact physical health may leadto losses in productivity, income,and employment. When incomeand employment are affected, thenhealthcare affordability can become an issue. Employment statusand income are strongly linked withmental health. When the economyis not doing well, stress increases,negatively impacting overallhuman health.b,4The fear of being exposed to toxinsor being unable to use communityplaces affected by oil spill toxins cancause mental health strain. The CLDillustrates many linkages betweenpeople’s physical and mental healthand socioeconomic factors.b Thelinks between socioeconomics andhuman health are so strong that6these two domains should not beseparated. Six factors linked to community resilience5 can potentiallybe impacted by an oil spill: Human and cultural Social Political Natural Infrastructural FinancialTo learn more about the impactsof oil spills on socioeconomics andhuman health, read the Sea Grantpublication Understanding thehuman health and socioeconomicimpacts from the DeepwaterHorizon oil spill.Progress has been made in integrated modeling for ocean environment,ecosystems, and socioeconomicdomains, although there is muchmore to do, especially in integrating human health. Ideally, buildingmore intricate models within thesocioeconomic and human healthdomains would provide scientistswith more knowledge about thecomplexities of these domains.bScientists need many types of socialdata to adequately support modeling needs.aCONCLUSIONThe Gulf of Mexico sits in a regionsubject to a variety of naturaland human-caused threats. Gulfarea disasters impact not onlyits many marine ecosystems butalso the people who depend onthem for their livelihoods andculture. GoMRI-funded researchthat included integrated modelinghas greatly expanded knowledgeabout the interconnections amongecosystems. Additionally, integratedmodeling can reveal where userinterests align and where tradeoffs between competing interests
exist.a This research has also raisedawareness of the risks associatedwith oil spills, the vulnerabilitiesof the natural and human systemsconnected to the Gulf, and the costsand benefits of oil exploration.aAdditionally, integrated modelingcan show where stakeholderinterests align and where trade-offsbetween competing interests exist.During and after an oil spill like DWH,response efforts and energies needto be directed toward public healthand safety, environmental cleanup,and eventually quantifying theextent of the damage.a The GoMRIfunded CLD provides the conceptfor integrated models whoseoutputs and forecasts can helpanswer the many questions relatedto oil spills and subsequent damageassessments. These advancementsprovide big picture views of likelyshort-term oil spill impacts as wellas the potential for a wide range oflong-term indirect effects.bFUTURE WORKConsiderable work is needed toaddress research gaps and createcomprehensive integrative modelsto help decision makers respondto and improve recovery from oilspills. Future versions of CLDs wouldbenefit from inclusion of the mostdisadvantaged members of affectedcommunities as well as cultural andartistic elements. Socioeconomicmodeling efforts could benefit fromfocused efforts to understand howsocieties change after oil spills,to develop best practices relatedto data collection, and to createregional economic frameworks thatinclude a broad range of communityhealth and socioeconomic impacts.bSuch efforts will help scientistsbetter understand the interactionsbetween socioeconomic conditionsand human health to be ready forfuture oil spills.1Shrimping is an integralpart of the seafood industry.Oil spills impact the industryby causing contamination,which can lead to closing offishing zones, resulting in areduction in work and employment for coastal residents.(UF/IFAS/Tyler Jones)GLOSSARYrecover quickly from disasters or stress such as oil spillsand hurricanes.Ecosystem service — The direct and indirectcontributions of the environment and wildlife tohuman wellbeing (such as food, clean water and air,flood control, and employment).Sediment — Naturally occurring material that is brokendown by weathering and/or erosion and transportedby wind, water, or ice. It can consist of rocks, boulders,sand, and/or the remains of plants and animals.Larvae — The immature form of an animal thatundergoes physical changes during its life.Socioeconomics — Science that studies how theeconomy affects social processes and vice versa.This includes the social (or cultural) and economiccomponents of individuals, families, or communities.Population dynamics — The study of how the sizeand age of a species changes over time.Resilience — The ability to withstand adversity and7
REFERENCESPublications resulting from the GoMRI-supportedsynthesis activities serve as the primaryreferences for this work. Additional supportingliterature, either cited in GoMRI synthesis papers ornecessary for foundational information about thesubject, is also included.GoMRI synthesis publicationsa. Ainsworth, C. H., Chassignet, E. P., French-McCay, D.,Beegle-Krause, C. J., Berenshtein, I., Englehardt, J., . . .Zheng, Y. (2021). Ten years of modeling the DeepwaterHorizon oil spill. Environmental Modelling and Software,142, 105070.b. Solo-Gabriele, H. M., Fiddaman, T., Mauritzen, C.,Ainsworth, C., Abramson, D. M., Berenshtein, I., . . .Yoskowitz, D. (2021). Towards integrated modeling of thelong-term impacts of oil spills. Marine Policy, 131, 104554.Supporting literature1. McKinney, L. D., Shepherd, J. G., Wilson, C. A., Hogarth, W.T., Chanton, J., Murawski, S. A., . . . Caffey, R. (2021). TheGulf of Mexico: An overview. Oceanography, 34(1), 30-43.2. Westerholm, D. G., Ainsworth, C. H., Barker, C. H., Brewer,P. G., Farrington, J. W., Justić, D., . . . Solo-Gabriele, H. M.(2021). Preparedness, planning, and advances in operational response. Oceanography, 34(1), 212-227.3. Forrester, J. W. (2010). System dynamics: The foundationunder systems thinking. Retrieved from dynamics/SD2011-01SDFoundationunderST.pdf.4. Sandifer, P. A., Ferguson, A., Finucane, M. L., Partyka, M.,Solo-Gabriele, H. M., Walker, A. H., . . . Yoskowitz, D. (2021).Human health and socioeconomic effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Oceanography,34(1), 174-191.5. National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine(NASEM). (2019). Building and measuring communityresilience: Actions for communities and the Gulf ResearchProgram, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.Retrieved from s-and-the.ABOUT THE GoMRI/SEA GR ANTSYNTHESIS SERIESThe GoMRI Research Board established Synthesis &Legacy committees to review 10 years of oil spill sciencefindings. Look for Sea Grant extension publica tions onthese GoMRI synthesis topics: Observing and modeling oil plumes and circulation Combined ecosystem modeling Combined oil spill modeling How oil weathers and degrades Ecological/ecosystem oil spill impacts Human health and socioeconomic oil spill impacts Microbiology, genetics, and oil spills Dispersant-related impacts from oil spill responseSEA GR ANT SCIENCE OUTREACH TEAMDani Bailey, Texas Sea Grant College Program,danielle.bailey@tamu.eduEmily Maung-Douglass, Louisiana Sea Grant CollegeProgram, edouglass@lsu.eduMissy Partyka, Mississippi-Alabama Sea GrantConsortium, m.partyka@auburn.eduStephen Sempier, Mississippi-Alabama Sea GrantConsortium, stephen.sempier@usm.eduTara Skelton, Mississippi-Alabama Sea GrantConsortium, tara.skelton@usm.eduLaDon Swann, Mississippi-Alabama Sea GrantConsortium, ladon.swann@usm.eduMonica Wilson, Florida Sea Grant, UF/IFAS ecial thanks to the many external reviewers whocontributed to thebetterment of this oilspill science outreachpublication. Thankyou to artist AnnaHinkeldey for thewatercolor icons.SUGGESTED CITATIONWilson, M., Bailey, D., Maung-Douglass, E., Partyka,M., Sempier, S., & Skelton, T. (2021). From the oceanto humans: Integrated modelling of oil spill impacts.GOMSG-G-21-007.Texas Louisiana FloridaMississippi-AlabamaThis work was made possible in part by a grant from The Gulf ofMexico Research Initiative, and in part by the Sea Grant programs ofTexas, Louisiana, Florida and Mississippi-Alabama. The statements,findings, conclusions and recommendations do not necessarilyreflect the views of these organizations.GOMSG-G-21-007September 2021
Ocean environment The CLD illustrates a number of connections between the ocean environment and oil spill response (gray arrows) (Figure 2). Short-term links would include immediate preparedness and cleanup efforts in oil spill response. Long-term links would show how the ocean environment connects with the larger socio-ecological system. Most the
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