Feasibility Study For The Manchester Performing Arts Center Manchester .

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Feasibility Study for theManchester Performing ArtsCenterManchester, New HampshirePrepared by:HVS Convention, Sports and Entertainment205 West Randolph, Suite 1650Chicago, Illinois 60606312-587-9900312-587-9908 FAXSubmitted to:Jay MinkarahManchester Economic Development Office1 City Hall PlazaManchester, NH 03101Phone: (603) 624-6505 x 4103Fax: (603) 624-6308Email: JMinkarah@ci.manchester.nh.usSeptember 22, 2008

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyTable of ContentsTable of ContentsSectionTitle1Executive Summary2Market Analysis3Performing Arts Industry Trends4Competitive and Comparable Facilities5Key Informant Interviews6Facility Program and Site Recommendations7Demand and Financial Analysis8Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions9Certification

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyExecutive Summary 1-11. Executive SummaryOverviewThe City of Manchester engaged HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentFacilities Consulting (“HVS”) to analyze the market potential and anticipateddemand for a performing arts center in Manchester, New Hampshire. HVSworked with a committee of local leaders, and tourism, hospitality, andperforming arts industry representatives, who provided insight into the localmarket and the interests and needs of the community.HVS analyzed market characteristics of the local area, trends in theperforming arts industry, comparable and competing facilities, interviewswith local performing arts centers, performing arts groups, event promoters,and demand and financial potential for the proposed Manchester PerformingArts Center (“MPAC”).Local Market TrendsPerforming ArtsIndustry TrendsManchester benefits from positive economic indicators, with population andpersonal income sufficient to support demand for performing arts events.Manchester’s accessibility and its proximity to Boston may also provideManchester with an advantage, acting as a lower-cost alternative, closer andeasier to access than Boston for a substantial part of the population base.Current trends in the theater industry reveal the importance of non-ticketrevenue sources and fundraising and overall contributed income. From 2005through 2006 the number of theaters receiving endowments substantiallyincreased. The number of donors decreased, but the average contributionrose substantially, resulting in an overall increase in donations. Theaterschanged their revenue mix, as a result of decreases in ticket revenue.Changes in demographics and attendee interests have also caused theatervenues to alter and diversify their programs. Attendance in a majority ofperforming arts event types decreased substantially from 2002 through 2006,especially in touring groups. New England remains above the average of allareas in the United States in attendance for each performing art category.Current attendees of performing arts events want to increase the number ofperformances they attend.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentKey InformantInterviewsManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyExecutive Summary 1-2HVS conducted interviews with representatives of community performingarts groups/producers. These groups throughout New Hampshire indicatedthey mainly host plays and musicals, averaging between 10 and 40performances per year. While a majority of informants from New Hampshireindicated they are satisfied with the current options of venues, mostperforming arts groups from Manchester expressed dissatisfaction with thecurrent venues. Twenty-two percent of informants indicated they would usea new performing arts center 1 to 4 times per year, 17 percent would use it 10to 19 times per year, and 11 percent would use it 20 times per year, withincreases in attendance expected at many of these events. Roughly 50 percentof informants reported that they would never use a new performing artscenter in Manchester, a majority of which are located at least 30 miles fromManchester and near towns/cities with a strong existing supply of performingart venues.Other comments by key informants include the following:Competitive andComparable Venues The current facilities in Manchester do not offer the capacity andtechnologies needed for many types of performances (especiallytheater performances) including a lack of wing space, stage space,lighting capabilities, and good acoustics. Many of the facilities local performing arts groups currently use arelocated in Manchester, but are not in downtown Manchester and givethe perception to potential audience members that the venue is faraway, thereby limiting attendance. A number of performing artsgroups also indicated that they often host their performances outsideof Manchester, which limits attendance.The analysis of local and regional competitive venues indicates that there is alack of affordable, high quality local performing arts venues, whose mainpriority is to serve local performing arts groups. Within the region, a fewvenues including the Verizon Wireless Arena and the Capital Center for theArts host larger, touring performing arts groups. However, the VerizonWireless Arena is unable to sell out seats to these events that typically occupyonly half of their facility, while the Capital Center looks to find a new niche inthe market, as traditional theater-goers decrease in attendance.HVS analyzed venues outside the region that range from 2,000 to 4,000 seatsand are capable of hosting touring shows, and compared their markets toManchester. In comparison to these markets, Manchester’s population within

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyExecutive Summary 1-3a 30-minute drive proves to be a significant disadvantage for any new largetheater. While Manchester has a strong population within a 60-minute drive,it is typically the primary market that drives a majority of capital support andattendance. Therefore the ability for the community to support a new largetheater would be constrained by the limited population. Most large theatershave more than one prominent resident arts group. New Hampshire has fewlarge and prominent performing arts groups, and thus a new large theaterwould have significant complications retaining resident companies withfrequent performances and large audiences. Without these residentcompanies it is difficult for a large theater to succeed.HVS analyzed the markets of venues outside the region that serve primarilylocal theater events and groups with seating capacity ranging fromapproximately 400 to 600 seats. In comparison to these markets, Manchester’spopulation within a 30-minute drive time falls second to last among all midsized theater comparable markets, but it has the largest population within itsactual city limits. Additionally, it ranks above average in all incomeparameters, relative to comparable mid-sized theater markets, providing,along with its strong city population, an advantage in raising capital fundsand the willingness for the community to attend events.Facility Program andSite RecommendationsHVS does not recommend the development of a larger theater (2,000 to 4,000seats), due to a relatively weak primary market area, lack of interest from localperforming arts groups, and potentially negative impacts on existing venues.However, to serve local performing arts groups and attract regionalperforming arts groups, HVS recommends a 500-seat theater along with ablack box experimental theater with capacity for 150 seats. The programrecommendations are described in Section 6 of this report.HVS evaluated potential sites for the proposed MPAC and recommended apreferred site. HVS analyzed the same six sites presented in HVS’ “FeasibilityStudy for the Manchester Convention Center.” HVS used a list of 17 criteriaevaluate each site. Site C, the Pearl Street Site emerges as the preferred site, asit is centrally located, minimizes neighborhood impact, and provides goodaccessibility, as well as being centrally located within downtown Manchester.Demand and FinancialAnalysisHVS used the National Endowment for the Arts 2002 Survey of PublicParticipation in the Arts, as described in Section 3, to estimate the level ofparticipation in the performing arts in Manchester, information on demand atcomparable venues, and user surveys to forecast demand for the proposed

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyExecutive Summary 1-4venue. Table 1-1 shows projected events and attendance by type of event inthe first five years of operations.Table 1-1Projections of Events and tionsPlaysMuscialsDanceChildren's TheaterLecturesReceptionsStudio TheaterStudio e s TheaterLecturesReceptionsStudio TheaterStudio DanceTotal s TheaterLecturesReceptionsStudio TheaterStudio DanceTotalSource: HVS

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyExecutive Summary 1-5For the purposes of this study HVS assumes that the project would open in2011 and its demand would stabilize in 2013 at approximately 95 events in themid-sized theater and 50 events in the studio theater (black box) for a total of145 events.Table 1-2 provides a five-year forecast of financial operations of the proposedMPAC. Event demand stabilized in year 2013 but inflationary growth ofrevenue and expenses (assumed to be three percent per year) drivesubsequent changes in operating revenue and expenses.Table 1-2Five-Year Forecast of Income and Expense2011 O P E R A T IN G R E V E N U EF a cility R e ntalP re se nting R e ve nueF ood & B e ve ra ge (G ross)N ove ltie sB ox O fficeF a cility S urcharge2012% ofT o tal 2013% ofT o tal 2014% ofT o tal 2015% ofT o tal % ofT o %21.6%2.9%11.4%14.0% 21.9%2.7%10.9%13.9% 21.2%2.7%10.8%14.0% 21.2%2.7%10.7%14.1% %21.1%2.6%10.8%14.0%T ota l 559,000100.0% 729,000100.0% 860,000100.0% 903,000100.0% 948,000100.0%O P E R A T IN G E X P E N S E SS alarie sB e ne fitsA dm inistra tive & G e ne ra lE ve nt P rogram m ingMa rke ting & S ale sB ox O ffice E xpe nse 5%33.8%28.8%28.3%1.8% 4%26.2%29.1%21.9%1.6% 5%23.4%29.8%19.5%1.6% 5%23.4%29.8%19.5%1.7% 5%23.4%29.9%19.5%1.6% 1,481,000264.9% 1,548,000212.3% 1,661,000193.1% 1,744,000193.1% 1,831,000193.1%T ota lO P E R A T IN G IN C O ME (L O S S )( 922,000) -164.9%( 819,000) -112.3%( 801,000)-93.1%( 841,000)-93.1%( 883,000)-93.1%N O N -O P E R A T IN G R E V E N U ED onationsInte re st Incom eG rants 631,000126,00063,000112.9%22.5%11.3% 638,000128,00064,00087.5%17.6%8.8% 670,000134,00067,00077.9%15.6%7.8% 704,000141,00070,00078.0%15.6%7.8% 739,000148,00074,00078.0%15.6%7.8%T ota l 821,000146.9% 830,000113.9% 871,000101.3% 915,000101.3% 960,000101.3% 11,00011,0002.0%2.0% 22,00015,0003.0%2.1% 34,00017,0004.0%2.0% 45,00018,0005.0%2.0% 47,00019,0005.0%2.0% 36,0004.9% 52,0006.0% 63,0007.0% 66,0007.0%( 26,000)-3.6% 18,0002.1% 10,0001.1% 11,0001.2%N O N -O P E R A T IN G E X P E N S E SC a pital Ma inte na nce R e se rveInsuranceT ota lT O T A L N E T IN C O ME (L O S S ) 22,000( 124,000)3.9%-22.2%HVS concludes that the ongoing operation of the proposed venue wouldrequire a sustained fund raising operation typical of most performing artscenters. The development of the venue would require a public/privatepartnership led by parties interested in fostering the growth of performingarts in Manchester.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-12. Market AnalysisMarket OverviewThe market area analysis reviews economic and demographic trends thatpotentially affect the ability of Manchester, NH to attract performing artscenter events. The economic vitality of the area surrounding a proposedfacility is an important consideration in forecasting performing arts demand.The market area for a performing arts center is the geographical region wherethe sources of demand and the competitive supply are located.The proposed Manchester Performing arts Center sits in the City ofManchester, the county of Hillsborough, and the state of New Hampshire.The City is part of the Manchester/Nashua Metropolitan Statistical Area(MSA). HVS will focus on economic data and market trends in Manchesterand the surrounding Manchester MSA.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-2Manchester, New HampshireSource: Microsoft Streets & TripsAs the largest city in Northern New England (Main, Vermont, and NewHampshire), Manchester is a market distinct from the larger nearby Bostonmetropolitan area. Approximately 35-square miles in size, Manchester’spopulation remains relatively stable and is currently at around 107,000.Manchester is located along the Merrimack River and is proximate to severalmajor highways and interstates. The city is 58 miles northwest of Boston andless than 12-hours (via car) from several major cities in the eastern UnitedStates and Canada.Economic &DemographicOverviewBased on fieldwork conducted in the area and our in-house data sources,HVS evaluated various economic and demographic statistics to determinetrends in economic growth. HVS used historical statistics from the U.S Censusdata and information published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Aprimary source of economic and demographic statistics used in this analysis is

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-3ESRI (Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.), which provides data,collected and organized by their own geographic information systemtechnology.Population TrendsChanges in population can indicate whether an economy is growing orshrinking. This data can also suggest whether growth rates are sustainable ina community or whether some short-term action or phenomenon is creatingrapid growth or decline. The overall strength and stability of a local economycan contribute to a community’s ability to support a performing arts centerand provide continued investment in visitor infrastructure needed to supportgrowth in the performing arts.Table 2-1 shows historical, current, and projected population data for the cityof Manchester, Hillsborough County, the Manchester-Nashua MSA, NewHampshire, and the nation, as estimated by ESRI.Table 2-1PopulationMarket1990200020072012Manchester City99,545107,006113,964119,310Hillsborough a MSA336,073380,841414,036437,419New Hampshire1,109,2521,235,7861,352,812 1,435,390United States248,709,873 281,421,906 306,348,230 %0.9%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.2%Source: ESRI 2007The City of Manchester experienced small population increases from 2000through 2007 for a compounded annual growth rate of 1.1 percent.Population in the county, MSA, and the nation grew at a rate of 1.4 percenteach; the state’s population is expected to moderate to an annual rate of 1.5percent. According to 2012 projections, slight but steady increases inpopulation will continue to hover around one percent for the city, county,MSA, state and nation.Income TrendsPersonal income levels are one of the most important indicators of acommunity’s economic health. Trends in per capita personal income reflect

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-4the relative spending capacity of area residents, providing anotherbenchmark for assessing the region’s ability to develop and maintain bothpublic and private services and attractions.Table 2-2 shows income trends, as reported by ESRI, in the City ofManchester, the county, MSA, state, and nation.Table 2-2Income Trends200020072012 ProjectionsAverageMedianAverageMedianPerAverage MedianPer CapitaPer CapitaHousehold HouseholdHousehold Household Capita Househol e d Income IncomeManchester City 50,362 40,773 21,244 65,652 52,200 27,441 78,797 61,858 32,967Hillsborough County65,58253,59025,19887,06268,835 33,184 106,07881,08640,449Manchester-Nashua MSA65,58253,59025,19887,06268,835 33,184 106,07881,08640,449New Hampshire61,08349,47423,84479,49662,216 31,18996,06372,79537,842United States56,64442,16421,58773,12653,154 27,91688,68562,50333,873MarketAvg. HH IncomeGrowth 4.0%3.9%3.9%Source: ESRI 2007In 2007, the city of Manchester had a per capita income of approximately 27,441, lower than figures for Hillsborough County, the Manchester MSA,and New Hampshire and slightly lower than the nation. The averagehousehold income in Manchester was 65,652 in 2007. Household incomegrew steadily from 2000 to 2007; projections for 2012 predict continuedforward growth in household income.Work ForceCharacteristicsThe characteristics of a market’s workforce provide an indication of the typeof transient visitation local businesses will likely generate. For example,sectors such as finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE), wholesale trade andservices produce a considerable number of visitors who are not especially ratesensitive. The government sector often generates transient room nights.However, per-diem reimbursement allowances often limit theaccommodations selection to budget and mid-priced lodging facilities.Contributions from manufacturing, construction, and transportation,communications, and public utilities (TCPU) employers can also be importantfor the performing arts industry, depending on the type of company.Providing additional understanding of the local economy, Table 2-3 lists theten largest employers in the City of Manchester.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-5Table 2-3Largest EmployersNumber ofEmployeesCompanyElliot HospitalCatholic Medical CenterVerizon CommunicationsPublic Service of New HampshireCitizen BankTD BanknorthAnthem Blue Cross & Blue ShieldSouthern New Hampshire UniversitySt. Anselm CollegeBank of ource: Manchester Economic Development, Respective EmployersThe healthcare industry accounts for the two largest employers inManchester. The largest employer is Elliot Hospital with 2,821 employees,followed by the Catholic Medical Center with 1,700 employees. VerizonCommunications has 1,650 employees.Figure 2-1 shows the distribution of total employment by sector and thedistribution of earnings by industry for the Manchester-Nashua MSA.Figure 2-1Employment by Sector in MSA & Share of Earnings by Industry for Market MSAShare of Earnings by Employment SectorEmployment by SectorConstruction5%TCPU4%Agriculture,Farming &Mining1%FIRE10%TCPUConstruction re,Farming %Trade19%Source: Woods & Poole 2008Manufacturing21%

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-6The services and trade sectors make up the two largest sectors ofemployment, capturing 33 and 23 percent of the market respectively.Government and FIRE sectors make up 10 percent of the market each. As istypical in most markets, the services sector had the largest share of earningsin 2007 with 30 percent of the subject market; followed by income earned inthe manufacturing and trade sectors. FIRE and government sectors make up11 and 10 percent of market earnings respectively.Unemployment StatisticsLabor market characteristics also can help to indicate economic health.Growth in employment can be an indicator of a growing economy andsuccessful economic development efforts, while unemployment rates canhelp determine the constraints of the subject’s labor market. Additionally,unemployment rates affect labor costs, and consequently will impact manyperforming arts center employees.Table 2-4 gives full employment data for the city of Manchester andunemployment rates for the county, MSA, state, and nation.Table 2-4Labor Force DataCity of 52006YTD 2007Labor mployment 64.7*** 1997-1999 reflects 2000 Census-based geography and new model-based controls at the state level, while 2000-2006 reflects revised inputs,reestimation, and new statewide controls through 2006.** October 2007Source: US Department of Labor StatisticsFrom 1997 through 2001, the city of Manchester maintained anunemployment rate below or equal to the county, MSA, state and nation. The

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-7citywide unemployment rate is currently about 3.7 percent, slightly higherthan the county, MSA, and state of New Hampshire. From 2000 through 2003,unemployment increased in all of the above categories, reflecting the laggingemployment effects of a national economic recession, which occurred in 2001.Since then, unemployment rates declined significantly each year through2006. From 2004 through to the present, the county, MSA and stateconsistently maintain unemployment rates less than the city of Manchester.Year-to-date employment data indicate a relatively stable labor market for2007.TransportationTransportation access is a key variable in determining a community’sattractiveness as a destination for the potential users and audience ofperforming arts events. Typically, potential users seek locations that maximizeattendance and visibility of their performance, while audience members arehighly concerned about access and affordability. Therefore, highway and airtransportation infrastructure is an important consideration for anycommunity planning a performing arts center.The following map shows the road and highway systems serving Manchesterand the greater Manchester-Nashua area.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-8Regional Access Map (50-Mile Radius)Source: Microsoft Streets & TripsManchester is proximate to several major thoroughfares including Interstate93, Interstate 293, and U.S. Highway 3. I-93 moves north toward Concord,NH, Vermont, to Montreal, Canada. To the south I-93 passes through Bostonwhere it merges with Interstate 95, which runs along the eastern coast of USHighway 10, a four-lane, east-west roadway that merges with I-95. It movesnortheast through Massachusetts, Maine, toward Canada. An expansion ofthe I-93 will widen the road from Salem, MA through Manchester; additionalspace is set aside for a proposed commuter line between the two cities.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-9Table 2-5Distance to Metro AreasCityBostonNew York CityMontrealPhiladelphiaQuebecWashington D.C.TorontoDistance Drive 004768.005829.00Source: Microsoft Streets & TripsManchester is roughly an hour drive from Boston, allowing visitors easyaccess to Boston for recreation and/or travel purposes, a strong competitiveadvantage for a performing arts center. New York City and Montreal are 4.50hour drives from Manchester, reasonable drive times for overnight stays. Fourother major northeastern US and Canadian cities are less than nine hoursfrom Manchester, enabling a wide market to reach Manchester.Air AccessAirport passenger counts are important indicators of potential statewide andregional demand. Moreover, an area’s airlift capacity is a key factor indetermining whether a location is suitable for hosting statewide, regional andnational performing art events. Depending on the proximity of other marketsthat may be within driving distance, airport traffic is a key indicator of amarket’s potential to attract major regional or national events. The followingmap shows several of the region’s airport facilities and their proximity toManchester.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-10Airport MapSource: Microsoft Streets & Trips 2007Manchester-Boston Regional Airport, formerly known as the ManchesterAirport, is a public airport located south of the city. The airport lies in twocommunities, Manchester and Londonderry. Formerly known as theManchester Airport, in 2006 the airport changed its name to the BostonManchester Regional Airport, in an effort to increase visibility Majorcommercial airlines that service the airport include Air Canada, Continental,Delta, Northwest, Southwest, United, and US Airways. The airport,continually undertaking expansion and improvement measures since 1992, iscurrently constructing an additional runway and expanding its terminalspace.

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-11Boston Logan International Airport is New England’s largest transportationcenter; the airport boundary encompasses approximately 2,400 acres in EastBoston. The airport features five runways, 33 airlines, and four passengerterminals with 102 gates. Since 1994, the 4.4 billion Logan Modernizationproject produced overhead walkways connecting the central parking garageto the terminals, a new international arrival hall, a new MBTA station, animproved roadway system around the airport, and the state-of-the-artenvironmentally friendly Terminal A.The city of Manchester is proximate to the Concord Municipal Airport, theNashua Municipal Airport, and the Pease International Tradeport. Thesefacilities serve the general aviation market, and offer minimal or nocommercial service. Located in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, the NewHampshire Air National Guard actively uses Pease International to providefull agriculture, customs, and immigration services within its Foreign TradeZone. On occasion, Allegiant Air, which flies to Orlando-Sanford, FL, andBoston-Maine Airways, which flies to Bedford, MA, commercially servesPease International.Table 2-6 shows recent operating statistics for the two commercial airportfacilities serving the proposed subject property’s sub-market.Table 2-6Airport StatisticsYear2000200120022003200420052006YTD 2006YTD 2007Manchester-BostonRegional AirportBoston LoganInternational ge--10.7%-7.3%0.4%14.7%3.6%2.4%-1%Source: Respective FacilitiesBetween 2001 and 2002, total passengers at the Manchester-Boston Regionalincreased 4.1 percent. Manchester-Regional experienced steady increases in

HVS Convention, Sports & EntertainmentManchester Performing Arts Center Feasibility StudyMarket Analysis 2-12passenger volume; in 2004, total passengers increased 11.2, followed by anincrease of eight percent in 2005. By 2006, however, total passengersdecreased by ten percent, partly reflecting a national downtrend in number offlights. YTD 2007 figures indicate a two percent decrease in passenger volumefrom the same time of year in 2006.The Boston Logan International Airport experienced a 10.7 percent decreasein total passengers from 2000 to 2001, followed by a 7.3 percent decrease from2001 to 2002. This loss may be due in part to the events of September 11, 2001,but the nearly 11 percent decrease from 2000 to 2001 suggests additionalreasons for passenger drop off. As one of the nation’s major internationalairport, the event of September 11th surely influenced the continued decreaseof passengers, while Manchester-Regional, as a smaller air facility, did notexperience the same kind of losses. Logan International began to recover fromthe decrease in passenger volume, gaining approximately 15 percent from2002 to 2004. Total passenger volume continued to increase each subsequentyear.Activities &AttractionsThe greater Manchester area benefits from a wide variety of cultural, touristand recreational attractions and activities, including:Manchester Millyard Museum – features historical and cultural exhibits,tours, lectures, school programs, and family events. The ManchesterHistorical Association (MHA) owns and operates the Manchester MillyardMuseum. The MHA sponsors the Millyard Research Center. Their collectionsinclude thousands of archeological artifacts, textiles, books and images

performing arts groups, and potentially negative impacts on existing venues. However, to serve local performing arts groups and attract regional performing arts groups, HVS recommends a 500-seat theater along with a black box experimental theater with capacity for 150 seats. The program recommendations are described in Section 6 of this report.

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