Ecological Compensation Is Necessary To Avoid The Sixth Mass Extinction

Ecological CompensationIs Necessary To AvoidThe Sixth Mass ExtinctionAnthony D. BarnoskyStanford UniversityJasper Ridge Biological Preserve@tonybarnosky

We are killing species fast Wiped out 50% of world’swildlife in the last 40 years 25,000 species known tobe at riskWWF 2014; IUCN

Mass Extinction96% ofspeciesdead1Extinction Rates83% ofspeciesdead25375% ofspeciesdead480% ofspeciesdead76% ofspeciesdead6Background Extinction600400200Million Years AgoNow?

Mass extinction plausible within2 to 3 human lifetimesBarnosky et al Nature 471:51-57

Good news: Very few species actually extinctBarnosky et al Nature 471:51-57

Some success storiesGalapagosTortoise

Need to address the root causes of extinction

We have to produce lots of energyNet PrimaryProductivity(NPP)Fossil able fromNPPAnimalsWE ADD:550 ej/yearWe co-opt 30%(211 ej/year)Humans consume761ej/year

Greenhouse gases heating up the planet at warp speed

How much would continuing current greenhousewarming change landscapes by 2100?4o to 6oC of warmingin tropical forest

Ocean acidificationBy 2070

Quantifying increased risk of extinctiondue to climate changeUrban 2015, Science 348 :571 – 573Foden et al. 2013, PLOS ONE; Ricke et al. 2013, Environ. Res. Lett. 8Barnosky 2015, MRS Energy & Sustainability 2

Habitat loss 51 % of land area has been converted for humans

.au/files/2013/06/15-forest-types 1200.jpgIllegal Wildlife m/news/2015/07/15/poachingconf.jpg

Solutions?People already takingsome extrememeasures

A need for ecological compensationThree scales important Global Inter-regional alliances Local

Global :Cumulative C Emissions (GtC)To minimize climate change, we must quit using fossil fuels1200No reductions incoal emissions1000800Replace all coalwith natural gasby 203060040020002050210021502200Years into the future (starting with 2010)Lower emissions5.1% per year for50 years

Carbon neutral energy feasible globally by 2050SolarElectric VehiclesWindWaterAlgal BiofuelsTides/Waves

Developing world: Leapfrog past fossil fuelsthrough technology transferPasang Lhamu-Nicolle Niquille Hospital, NepalK. Das Shrestha, 2013, Sustainable Nepal

The richest billion produce 60% of greenhouse gasesUnsustainable Consumption of Coal, Oil, and GasT

The cost of fixing the climate problem US 750 billion to US 1000 billion per year ofinvestment and spending for 50 years For the richest 1 billion that is only:US 750 – US 1000 per person per yearAndrew McKillop, Finsia Journal of Applied Finance 2 (2009)

Inter-regional alliancesGovernors’ Climate & Forests Task Forcehttp://www.gcftaskforce.org/“Protects tropical forests,reduces emissions fromdeforestation, promotesrealistic pathways to forestmaintaining and ruraldevelopment” (REDD ) USA (California & Illinois)MexicoPeruBrazilSpainIvory CoastNigeriaIndonesia32% of global tropical forests

Local:Stanford University Habitat Conservation Plan

Stanford University lands8,180 acres30% densely developed Campus buildings Shopping mall Commercial real estate Faculty and student housing70% lightly / moderately developed Cattle grazing and equestrians Green space with hiking trails Jasper Ridge BiologicalBiological Preserve

High biodiversityNative Species 50 species of mammals 175species of birds 20 species of reptiles 12 species of amphibians 10 species of freshwater fishes 650 species of plantsnearly countless species ofinvertebrates

Endangered species:Federal and / or state laws prohibit harming themCalifornia tiger salamanderSteelheadCalifornia red-legged frogWestern pond turtleDusky-footed wood ratSan Francisco garter snake

Ecological compensation practiced for a long timeNew hotel complexdestroyed wetlandsCompensatorywetlands created

Stanford Habitat Conservation Plan formalized in 2013 50 year plan/permit in accordancewith U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service andCalifornia regulations Establishes a comprehensiveconservation program Designed to provide a netenvironmental benefit Includes 4,372 acres of campus Management zones are based on thevalue of the land to the endangeredspecies

Much of the 50-year conservation program of theStanford HCP will occur prior to new impacts No-build zone in lowerfoothills, in place at least50 yearsBuilding California tiger salamander reservesBeforeAfterPond #3 being built in 2003Pond #3 2007 315 acres of uplands and 8seasonal ponds (more to bebuilt) Sites of future easements(to be dedicated whenfuture impacts occur) Extensive management andfuture wetland construction

Danger of ecological compensation:Irreplaceable habitatsSerpentine GrasslandJasper Ridge Biological Preserve

Danger of ecological compensationHistorical EcosystemsNovel EcosystemsGlobal Change The ecosystems wedesign to compensatefor lost ones will neverbe exact duplicates Must build in adaptivecapacity to withstandrapid global change Must take thousandyear baselines intoaccount for successsBarnosky et al., Science (2017)

To sum upAvoiding the Sixth Mass Extinction will requireecological compensation at three scalesGlobalInter-regional AlliancesLocal

But ecological compensation alone will not be enough.Must also:Preserve irreplaceable ecosystemsAddress root causes: Human populationgrowth Climate change Over-consumption ofgoods Over-exploitation ofspecies

Will we succeed?

In preventing the Sixth Extinction?

Maybe. But only if we start today.Questions?@tonybarnosky

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The Sixth Mass Extinction Anthony D. Barnosky Stanford University Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve @tonybarnosky. We are killing species fast Wiped out 50% of world's wildlife in the last 40 years 25,000 species known to be at risk WWF 2014; IUCN. s 600 400 200 Now Million Years Ago Background Extinction Mass Extinction 83% of