Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, California U.S. Department Of Housing And .
C O M P R E H E N S I V EH O U S I N GM A R K E TA N A L Y S I SSanta Maria-Santa Barbara, CaliforniaU.S. Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentOffice of Policy Development and ResearchAs of August 1, 2016SummaryHousing Market AreaKernSanta BarbaraVenturaPacific OceanLos AngelesSan Luis ObispoThe Santa Maria-Santa Barbara HousingMarket Area (hereafter, the Santa BarbaraHMA) is coterminous with the SantaMaria-Santa Barbara, CA MetropolitanStatistical Area. The HMA, which com prises Santa Barbara County in southernCalifornia, is part of the greater CentralCoast tricounty area that includes SanLuis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and VenturaCounties. The HMA’s nutrient-rich soil,particularly in the Santa Maria and SantaYnez Valleys, and proximity to the Pacificcoast have supported growth in worldclass wine production and tourism, twoprominent industries.Market DetailsEconomic Conditions. 2Population and Households. 5Housing Market Trends. 7Data Profile. 13EconomyEconomic conditions have strengthened in the Santa Barbara HMA since2010. Nonfarm payrolls increased by4,800 jobs, or 2.7 percent, to 183,300jobs during the 12 months endingJuly 2016, with the most significantgrowth occurring in the leisure andhospitality, the education and healthservices, and the government sectors.Nonfarm payrolls are expected togrow an average of 1.9 percent a yearduring the 3-year forecast period, ledby expansions in industries related tohealth care and tourism.Sales MarketSales housing market conditions in theHMA are balanced, with an estimated1.1-percent vacancy rate, down from1.7 percent in 2010. During the next3 years, demand is estimated for 1,950new homes, with demand increasingslightly in the second and third yearsof the forecast period (Table 1). The40 homes under construction in theHMA and a portion of the 6,125other vacant units that may reenterthe market will satisfy some of theforecast demand.Rental MarketThe current rental housing marketconditions in the HMA are tight, andthe vacancy rate is estimated at 3.9per cent. Since 2010, the increase in renterhouseholds has outpaced the construction of rental units and the conversionof single-family homes, townhomes,and condominiums to rental units.During the forecast period, demand inthe HMA is expected for 1,075 newmarket-rate rental units; the 320 rentalunits currently under construction willmeet part of the demand in the firstyear of the forecast period (Table 1).Table 1. Housing Demand inthe Santa Maria-SantaBarbara HMA During theForecast PeriodSanta MariaSanta Barbara HMATotal demandUnder tes: Total demand represents estimatedproduction necessary to achieve a balancedmarket at the end of the forecast period.Units under construction as of August 1,2016. A portion of the estimated 6,125 othervacant units in the HMA will likely satisfysome of the forecast demand. The forecastperiod is August 1, 2016, to August 1, 2019.Source: Estimates by analyst
2Economic ConditionsS a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I SThe Santa Barbara HMA econ omy is renowned for agricul tureand tourism, with further supportfrom the military defense, education,and healthcare industries. Agricultureis the largest goods-producing industryin the HMA, with more than one-halfof HMA open land dedicated to agri culture (City of Goleta). The economicimpact on the local economy of thenearly 1,500 farms throughout theHMA is significant, increasing from 1.5 billion in 2000 to 2.8 billionin 2015 (County of Santa Barbara).Farm employment has accountedfor 10 percent of all HMA jobs since2000 and has increased each year byan average 500 jobs, or 2.8 percent,Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Santa MariaSanta Barbara HMA, by Sector12 Months EndingTotal nonfarm payroll jobsGoods-producing sectorsMining, logging, & constructionManufacturingService-providing sectorsWholesale & retail tradeTransportation & utilitiesInformationFinancial activitiesProfessional & business servicesEducation & health servicesLeisure & hospitalityOther servicesGovernmentJuly 2015July 03006003,8005000– 100– 100– 1001,1001,4001009002.73.73.44.72.42.10.0– 2.3– 1.6– 0.44.35.31.72.3Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Based on 12-monthaverages through July 2015 and July 2016.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsTable 3. Major Employers in the Santa Maria-Santa Barbara HMAName of EmployerNonfarm Payroll SectorVandenberg Air Force BaseUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraCottage HealthSanta Barbara City CollegeZodiac AerospaceDignity Health Central CoastChumash Casino ResortAllen Hancock CollegeRaytheon CompanySansum ClinicGovernmentGovernmentEducation & health servicesGovernmentManufacturingEducation & health servicesLeisure & hospitalityEducation & health servicesManufacturingEducation & health servicesNumber 51,1001,000Notes: Excludes local school districts. Data include 2,675 military personnel, who aregenerally not included in nonfarm payroll survey data.Sources: Pacific Coast Business Times, 2016; Vandenberg Air Force Baseannually (State of California Employment Development Department), helping to support the economy duringperiods of contraction. Wine grapesare one of the primary agriculturalcommodities produced. The 190 vine yards in the HMA support more than9,150 full-time jobs and contribute 544million in wages (Wine Institute). TheCaliforniawide drought that began in2012 and is expected to last through2016 had virtually no impact on farmemployment, which increased by 400jobs, or 1.8 percent, to 21,300 jobsduring the 12 months ending July 2016.Drought-tolerant wine grapes, whichproduce a more complex-flavored wineduring periods of drought, contributedto stable job growth in the HMA. Theproduction of wine also supportednonfarm payrolls through vineyardrelated tourism and nondurable goodsproduction.Overall, economic conditions in theHMA strengthened during the 12months ending July 2016. Nonfarmpayrolls increased by 4,800 jobs, or 2.7percent, from the previous 12 months,to 183,300 jobs (Table 2). More than70 percent of the gain occurred in theleisure and hospitality, education andhealth services, and government sectors, up by 1,400, 1,100, and 900 jobs,or 5.3, 4.3, and 2.3 percent, respectively.The completion of the 160 millionexpansion of the Chumash CasinoResort in May 2016 contributed togrowth, adding 250 jobs in the leisureand hospitality sector. Gains in theeducation and health services sectorduring the past 12 months were supported by the opening of the GoletaValley Cottage Hospital in September2015. The hospital is part of CottageHealth, among the largest employersin the HMA (Table 3). Growth inthe state and the local government
Economic Conditions Continuedsubsectors accounted for the entireincrease in the government sector,and jobs in the federal governmentsubsector remained unchanged.The government sector is the largestsector in the HMA (Figure 1). TheVandenberg Air Force Base (AFB)and the University of California,Santa Barbara (UCSB), the twolargest employers in the HMA, hada combined annual economic impactof more than 2.7 billion on theHMA in 2015 (UCSB; VandenbergAFB). Overall nonfarm payroll gainwas partly offset by decreases in thefinancial activities, information, andprofessional and business servicessectors, which were down by 100 jobseach, or 1.6, 2.3, and 0.4 percent,respectively. Approximately one-halfof the reduction in the financialactivities sector resulted from fewerFigure 1. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Santa Maria-SantaBarbara HMA, by SectorMining, logging, & construction 5.0%Government 21.6%Manufacturing 7.3%Wholesale & retail trade 13.5%Other services 3.2%Transportation & utilities 2.0%Information 2.4%Financial activities 3.5%Leisure & hospitality 15.1%Professional & business services 12.2%Education & health services 14.4%Note: Based on 12-month averages through July 2016.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor 0200,000Resident employmentSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor 0420052020202020Labor force030.002180,000012.000190,000Unemployment rateUnemployment rateFigure 2. T rends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment Rate in the Santa Maria-Santa Barbara HMA,2000 Through 2015Labor force andresident employmentS a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S3jobs needed to service delinquentmortgages and a contraction in themarket for seasonal homes. Beginningin mid-2015, heightened enforcementof restrictions on seasonal housingin the HMA contributed to job lossesin the real estate and the rental andleasing industry. In the informationsector, 50 call center layoffs at FusionContact Centers that began in late2015 contributed to the decline from ayear earlier.As economic conditions strengthenedduring the 12 months ending July2016, the average unemployment ratedeclined to 5.0 percent, down from5.5 percent during the previous 12months. The current unemploymentrate is above the 4.3-percent rate forSan Luis Obispo County but belowthe 5.3-percent rate for Ventura County;both counties are also part of the tricounty area. Figure 2 shows trends inthe labor force, resident employment,and the average unemployment ratein the HMA from 2000 through 2015.Since 2000, the Santa Barbara HMAeconomy has contracted twice: (1) abrief decline during 2002 and (2) asignificant decline from 2008 through2010. During 2002, nonfarm payrollsdecreased by 800 jobs, or 0.5 percent.Payroll reductions were concentratedin the manufacturing sector, down1,700 jobs, or 11.3 percent. The closureof the Northrop Grumman Corporation plant in the city of Goleta, leadingto 200 layoffs, contributed to the loss.Despite the economic contraction, thegovernment sector remained strongduring 2002, increasing by 1,300 jobs,or 3.8 percent, partly offsetting theoverall decrease. The second contraction occurred from 2008 through2010, when an average of 3,500 jobswere lost each year as a result of
Economic Conditions ContinuedS a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S4the contraction of the housing andfinancial markets. Approximately 70percent of the losses were concentratedin the construction and retail tradesubsectors and the finance and insuranceindustry. Following the economiccontraction, nonfarm payroll growthin the HMA has averaged 3,600 jobs, or2.1 percent, annually since 2011, morejobs than from 2003 through 2007, whennonfarm payrolls increased by anaverage of 1,700 jobs, or 1.0 per cent,annually. The fast pace of growthsince 2011 has led to the econ omy’smore than fully recovering the numberof jobs lost by the end of 2014. Theeconomic recovery was predominately supported by job growth in theeducation and health services, leisureand hospitality, and wholesale and retail trade sectors, accounting for morethan one-half of the nonfarm payrolljob gain. Figure 3 shows nonfarmpayroll growth by sector since 2000.Overall, since 2000, the education andhealth services and the leisure andhospitality sectors have led nonfarmpayroll growth, increasing by an average of 500 and 400 jobs, or 2.2 and1.8 percent, a year, respectively. Bothsectors combined have accounted forthree-fourths of the total net increasein nonfarm payrolls since 2000. Nearlythe entire growth in the education andhealth services sector since 2000 hasbeen in the health care and socialassistance subsector, which employsapproximately 13 percent of the HMAnonfarm workforce and in which additional growth is expected during thenext 3 years. Expansions underwayinclude the Santa Barbara CottageHospital, excepted to be complete in2018, and the Goleta Valley CottageHospital medical office, with completion planned at the end of August2016. Although total jobs to be addedat both developments have not beenannounced, Cottage Health plans toadd 130 jobs in the HMA within ayear. In addition, job announcementsfor registered nurses are the highestamong all jobs types in the HMA,totaling approximately 430 jobs as ofJuly 2016 (State of California Employment Development Department).In the leisure and hospitality sector,the wine industry and proximity toFigure 3. Sector Growth in the Santa Maria-Santa Barbara HMA, Percentage Change, 2000 to CurrentTotal nonfarm payroll jobsGoods-producing sectorsMining, logging, & constructionManufacturingService-providing sectorsWholesale & retail tradeTransportation & utilitiesInformationFinancial activitiesProfessional & business servicesEducation & health servicesLeisure & hospitalityOther servicesGovernment– 30– 20– 1001020Note: Current is based on 12-month averages through July 2016.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics304050
S a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S5Economic Conditions Continuedthe Pacific coast support tourism,attracting more than 6 million visitorswho spent 2.06 billion in 2015(Cali fornia Travel and TourismCommission). Since 2000, the onlydecline in the sector occurred from2009 through 2010, when an averageof 600 jobs, or 2.6 percent, were lostannually. Since 2011, the pace of jobgrowth in the sector has acceleratedto an average of 1,000 jobs, or 4.2 percent, annually. Growth in the sector isexpected to continue during the next3 years with the completion of fivehotels currently under constructionthroughout the HMA. Constructionof the Hilton Garden Inn is currentlyunder way, with completion expectedin September 2016, adding 80 jobs,and construction of the remainingfour hotels is expected to be completeby the end of the 3-year forecastperiod, adding another 290 jobs.During the forecast period, nonfarmpayrolls are expected to increase anaverage of 1.9 percent, or by 3,500 jobs,annually, with the greatest growth tooccur in industries related to healthcare and tourism. The majority ofnonfarm payroll growth is anticipatedto occur in in the cities of Goleta,Santa Maria, and Santa Barbara, theeconomic center of the HMA.Population and HouseholdsThe population of the SantaBarbara HMA is estimated at450,400 as of August 1, 2016. TheHMA accounts for approximately 30percent of the population in the CentralCoast tricounty area. The cities ofSanta Barbara and Santa Maria havethe largest populations in the HMA,with 93,190 and 104,404 residents,respectively, as of January 2016 (Stateof California Department of Finance).Other population centers include thecities of Goleta and Lompoc, withmore than 30,000 residents each, andthe unincorporated areas, whichinclude Isla Vista and areas in theSanta Ynez Valley, with a combined143,088 residents.Since 2000, employment conditionsand housing prices in major metropolitan areas in southern and northern California have been factors thathave influenced migration trends andoverall HMA population growth.Students moving to the HMA toattend UCSB have also influencedgrowth. From 2000 to 2003, housingprices in the HMA were relatively lowand similar to prices throughout theCentral Coast tricounty area. Population growth in the HMA averaged3,125 people, or 0.8 percent, annually,and net in-migration averaged 350people, despite the brief economiccontraction in 2002. During this period,enrollment at UCSB increased by anaverage of 300 students a year, withapproximately 85 percent of newstudents coming from outside theHMA (UCSB). Overall, residentswere mainly coming from Los Angeles,Orange, San Luis Obispo, and SantaClara Counties (Internal RevenueService migration data). People alsomoved from neighboring Kern Countyfor agricultural work.
By the end of 2003, HMA home priceshad escalated 52 percent comparedwith prices at the start of the decadeand were at least 14 percent higherthan prices in neighboring San LuisObispo and Ventura Counties. Thesurge in prices led to net out-migration,averaging 1,225 people annuallynearly every year from 2003 to 2011,a period that spans both the housingboom and subsequent economiccon traction. As a result, populationgrowth slowed to an average of 2,050people, or 0.5 percent, annually.Resi dents were mainly moving to SanLuis Obispo and Ventura Counties forFigure 4. Population and Household Growth in the Santa MariaSanta Barbara HMA, 2000 to Forecast4,500Average annual change4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050002000 to 20102010 to currentPopulationCurrent to forecastHouseholdsNotes: The current date is August 1, 2016. The forecast date is August 1, 2019.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast—estimates by analystFigure 5. Components of Population Change in the Santa MariaSanta Barbara HMA, 2000 to Forecast3,5003,000Average annual changeS a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S6Population and Households Continued2,5002,0001,5001,0005000– 500– 1,0002000 to 20102010 to currentNet natural changeCurrent to forecastNet migrationNotes: The current date is August 1, 2016. The forecast date is August 1, 2019.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast—estimates by analystmore affordable housing and the SanJose and Los Angeles metropolitanareas for greater employment opportunities. Enrollment growth at UCSB,which averaged 210 students a year,did little to support in-migrationduring this period.By 2011, a reduction in home prices,improving economic conditions, andcontinued stability of agriculturalemployment led to net in-migration,which has averaged 2,000 people ayear since 2011. As a result, population growth averaged 4,825 people, or1.1 percent, a year from 2011 to thecurrent date, which is the highest rateof annual growth since 2000. Residentshave been coming from Los Angelesand San Luis Obispo Counties,offset ting continued out-migration toVentura County, where home pricesare 16 percent lower. Enrollment atUCSB, which has increased since2013, averaging 450 students a year,has supported migration during thisperiod. Net natural change (residentbirths minus resident deaths) accountedfor 59 percent of the populationgrowth since 2011 compared with 89percent of overall growth from 2000to 2003 and all of the growth from2003 to 2011.During the next 3 years, the populationof the HMA is expected to increaseby an average of 4,475, or 1.0 percent,a year (Figure 4), reflecting continuednet in-migration from economic growth.The population is estimated to reach463,800 by the end of the 3-yearfore cast period. Growth is expected tobe strong in the cities of Goleta, SantaBarbara, Santa Maria, and places inthe Santa Ynez Valley. Figure 5 showsthe components of population changein the HMA from 2000 to the forecastdate.
S a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S7Population and Households ContinuedThe number of households in theSanta Barbara HMA has increased by670, or 0.5 percent, annually since2010, up from an average increase of550, or 0.4 percent, annually duringthe 2000s as a result of higher popu la tion growth since 2011. The numberof renter households since 2010 hasincreased (Figure 6), with approximately9 percent of that growth attributed toan increase in student households.Figure 6. Number of Households by Tenure in the Santa MariaSanta Barbara HMA, 2000 to 0,00002000Current2010RenterOwnerNote: The current date is August 1, 2016.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by analystThe proportion of renter householdsis currently 49.3 percent, up from 47.3percent in 2010. As with populationgrowth, household growth has beenthe strongest in the cities of SantaBarbara and Santa Maria and in theunincorporated areas in Santa YnezValley.During the forecast period, the numberof households in the HMA is expectedto increase by an average of 880, or0.6 percent, annually. The proportionof renter households is expected toincrease to nearly 50 percent by theend of the forecast period, continuingthe trend that has been ongoing since2000. Student household growth isexpected to slow and account for5 percent of renter household growthduring the forecast period because ofthe completion of on-campus studentdormitories. Household growth isexpected to result in a total of 149,000households in the HMA by the end ofthe forecast period.Housing Market TrendsSales MarketThe Santa Barbara HMA saleshousing market is balanced and hasimproved from soft conditions thatbegan during 2007 and lasted through2011. The soft market was in responseto stringent lending standards andthe weaker economy during most ofthe 2007-to-2011 period. The currentestimated sales vacancy rate is 1.1per cent, down from 1.7 percent in2010. The decline in the vacancy rateresulted from improved economicconditions that enabled householdsto purchase homes and a decreasein home construction since the late2000s. The inventory of homes forsale is low, at an average of 1,775 duringthe 12 months ending June 2016, downfrom a peak of 3,125 during 2008, whenthe sales market was weak (CoreLogic,Inc.). The number of months homesremain on the market is low, averaging2.5 months, compared with 4.3 monthsduring 2008. Despite improved salesmarket conditions, the homeownership rate has declined since 2010 by2 percentage points, to 50.7 percent(Table DP-1 at the end of the report)because of greater renter householdgrowth.
S a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S8Housing Market TrendsSales Market ContinuedDuring the period of weak sales market conditions that lasted from 2007through 2011, an average of 3,125new and existing single-family homes,townhomes, and condominiums soldannually (Metrostudy, A HanleyWood Company, with adjustments bythe analyst). The number of homessold was down from an average of4,300 homes sold annually from 2005through 2006, when market conditions were stronger. The decrease insales reflects reductions in regularresales and new home sales of 48and 67 percent, respectively. Thesereductions were partly offset by amore than 100-percent increase inreal estate owned (REO) home salesthat resulted from the weakening ofthe sales market.By 2012, the sales market began toimprove as the economy continued torecover and the population expandedat a faster pace. From 2012 through2015, new and existing home salesaveraged 3,950, which is 26 percentmore than the average number of homessold from 2007 through 2011. Nearlythe entire increase resulted from anaverage 14-percent, or 330-home, annual surge in regular resales that partlyoffset a 32-percent, or 200-home,annual decline in REO home sales.During the 12 months ending July2016, home sales increased 3 percent,or by 90 homes, entirely becauseof a 4-percent increase in regularresales. Partly offsetting the increasewas a 4-percent decline in new homesales from reduced development inresponse to drought conditions andfrom a continued decrease in REOhome sales, down 12 percent. Theshare of condominiums has been lessthan 10 percent of total sales since themid-2000s and has been concentratedin the city of Santa Barbara, wherehousing demand is strong and wherethe amount of available land is scarcercompared with other parts of the HMA.The average new and existing homesales price decreased 4 percent duringthe 12 months ending July 2016, to 794,700, after 2 years of acceleratedprice growth averaging 14 percent ayear. The current average sales price inthe HMA is more than the 654,200averaged during the housing downturnfrom 2007 through 2011 and is nearthe 811,600 averaged during the peakyears from 2005 through 2006. Despitethe recent decrease, the currentaver age sales price in the HMA is 20percent more than the average price inVentura County.The improvement in the sales housingmarket since 2012 has led to a reduction in the rate of seriously delinquent(90 or more days delinquent or inforeclosure) home loans and REOproperties in the HMA. As of June2016, 1.1 percent of home loans inthe HMA were seriously delinquentor had transitioned into REO status,down from 1.2 percent in June 2015(CoreLogic, Inc.). The current rateof seriously delinquent loans for theHMA is lower than the 1.5-percentrate for California and the 3.0-percentrate for the nation. By comparison,San Luis Obispo and Ventura Counties, the other two counties in thetricounty area, have rates of 0.8 and1.2 percent, respectively.Since 2000, more than 80 percent ofall single-family home constructionin the HMA has occurred in the cityof Santa Maria and in the unincorporated areas, including those in SantaYnez Valley, because of the amountof available land in both areas.Home building activity, as measuredby the number of single-family homes
Sales Market Continuedpermitted, remains at low levels compared with levels in the early-to-mid2000s (Figure 7). From 2000 through2005, an average of 900 homes werepermitted annually before permittingslowed 10 percent, to 690 homesin 2006, despite relatively strongmarket conditions that year. By 2007,permitting declined an additional32 percent, to 470 homes, when themarket began to soften and, by 2008,economic and sales market conditionshad weakened considerably, and anaverage of 190 homes were permitteda year from 2008 through 2011. Asthe sales market began to improve, anaverage of 350 homes were permittedannually from 2012 through 2015.Prolonged drought conditions, whichlimit the amount of development thatcan occur because of restrictions onthe amount of available water thatcan be allocated to new homes, havecontributed to lower levels of development despite higher levels of in- migration and a continued strengthening of the sales market. Duringthe 12 months ending July 2016, 360homes were permitted compared with400 homes p ermitted during the sameperiod a year earlier (preliminary data;analyst’s estimates).Figure 7. Single-Family Homes Permitted in the Santa Maria-SantaBarbara HMA, 2000 to Current1,2001,00080060040020016152014Notes: Includes townhomes. Current includes data through July 2016.Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey; estimates by 005202020002001020S a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S9Housing Market TrendsSignificant single-family developmentsunder construction are concentratedin the cities of Santa Maria and Goletaand areas in the Santa Ynez Valley.The Harvest Glen community in thecity of Santa Maria has 4 homes underconstruction, has 34 homes that havebeen completed, and will have 139homes at buildout by 2020. Pricesstart at 385,000 for a three-bedroom,single-family home. In Goleta, con struction is expected to begin on LosCarneros in mid-August 2016, with56 single-family homes and 265 town homes and condominiums at buildout.Homes are already being sold, withprices starting at the upper 400,000sfor a one-bedroom condominium andthe upper 700,000s for a three-bedroomsingle-family home. Vineyard Villagein the Santa Ynez Valley began con struction in late 2015, with 18 homesunder way, 20 homes completed, and154 homes planned at buildout. Pricesstart at 386,000 for a two-bedroomtownhome. Completion is expectedbeyond the 3-year forecast period.During the next 3 years, demandis estimated for 1,950 new homesin the HMA (Table 1). Demand isexpected to increase in the secondand third years of the forecast periodin response to continued economicgrowth. The 40 homes currently underconstruction will meet a portionof demand during the first year. Inaddition, some of the estimated 6,125other vacant units in the HMA mayreturn to the sales market and satisfya portion of the demand. Table 4 showsestimated demand by price range.
10Housing Market TrendsSales Market ContinuedTable 4. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Sales Housing in theSanta Maria-Santa Barbara HMA During the Forecast PeriodS a n t a M a r i a - S a n t a B a r b a r a , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I SPrice Range ( )FromToUnits ofDemandPercentof ,999and higher78058039019040.030.020.010.0Notes: The 40 homes currently under construction and a portion of the estimated6,125 other vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy some of the forecast demand.The forecast period is August 1, 2016, to August 1, 2019.Source: Estimates by analystRental MarketThe rental housing market in the SantaBarbara HMA is tight. The currentoverall rental vacancy rate is estimatedat 3.9 percent, down from 4.5 percentin 2010 (Figure 8), because renterhousehold growth exceeded boththe development of rental units andthe conversion of sales and seasonalhousing units to the rental market.Approximately 43 percent of occupiedsingle-family homes in the HMA wererentals in 2013, the most representativeyear, up slightly from 42 percent in2010 (2013 and 2010 American Com munity Survey [ACS] 1-year data).The slight increase reflects investorpurchases of distressed homescon verted to rental use. A portion ofinvestor purchases during this periodwas also made available to the seasonalFigure 8. Rental Vacancy Rates in the Santa Maria-Santa BarbaraHMA, 2000 to 2010CurrentNote: The current date is August 1, 2016.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estima
University of California, Santa Barbara Government 4,325 Cottage Health Education & health services 3,000 Santa Barbara City College Government 2,750 Zodiac Aerospace Manufacturing 2,300 Dignity Health Central Coast Education & health services 1,750 Chumash Casino Resort Leisure & hospitality 1,700
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