2021 Regional Plan Discussion - San Diego Association Of Governments

2021 Regional PlanDiscussionBoard of Directors March 12, 2021RegionalPlanDiscussionAgendaPart A: Data Used in the Planning Process SANDAG staff presentation Potential Board Member questionsPart B: Cost Estimates and Funding Strategy10 a.m. time certain Independent expert panel SANDAG staff presentationBoard Member questions and discussion 2

2021 Regional Plan:Data used in the Planning ProcessBoard of Directors March 12, 2021Today’s PresentersDavid TedrowAllison WoodSenior RegionalPlannerPat LandrumDirector of Dataand ModelingManager ofEconomicand DemographicAnalysisand ModelingWu Sun, PhDPrincipalResearcher andModelerRick CurryManager ofTransportationAnalysis andApplicationCindy Burke, PhDDirector ofResearch andProgramManagement 42

Documentationof Presentationand Draft DataAnalysis Presentations to SANDAG Board of Directors andPolicy Advisory Committees Development of the 5 Big Moves Network Development Model Data Input Sheet San Diego Regional Travel Demand Model (ABM2 ) Survey ReportsComputer CodeDraft NetworksDraft Performance MetricsRegional Growth Forecast DocumentationSustainable Communities Strategy Land Use ScenarioEmployment CentersGoods Movement 5Iterative Planning ITERATIVEPROCESS 63

Outreach and EngagementStakeholdersCommunity InputHuman Centered DesignVision Advisory PanelStaff reports andpresentations:www.SDForward.com/reports 7TransportationNetworkand PhasingAvailable on sdforward.com: Network Development Summary Report Data Viewer Application 8 84

RegionalGrowthForecast andLand UsePolicies 9Pricing,Telework, andIncentivePrograms 105

DataDevelopmentLifecycleFrom Concept toABM2 EvaluationTransportationNetworksSCS Land UseScenarioPolicy StrategiesActivity BasedModel(ABM2 )PerformanceMeasures 11Regional Growth Forecast and Land Use ScenarioSB 375RequirementsHousing Units byTypeLocalJurisdiction DataDOF PopulationForecastCensus DataRegionalModelingRegional acteristicsJobs by SectorEconomic ?id ters 126

High LevelABM2 Inputs &OutputsTravel demandtotal number oftripsPopulationHouseholdsCharacteristicsVehicle MilesTraveled (VMT)EmploymentMode sharesEnrollmentTrip LengthsABM2 Traffic volumes onroad nParking Supplyand CostsABM2 Wiki with description ofmodel structure and nsit RidershipExogenous inputssuch as AOCWalk and biketrips 13TravelSurveysInform ModelParametersRevealed behaviors insurveys: Household travel behavior surveyTransit on-board surveyTNC surveyCommercial vehicle surveyCrossborder surveyParking surveyDecision-making-unithFormula for 9-0.7751-0.3729ageOver80AOn Board Transit ojectid 494 21412.pdfABM2 Code kers Statistical methods using Alogitsoftware Examine t-statistic ofestimated parameters Represented as utilityexpressions Solved by ABM2 MNLAlt2NonMandatoryfemaleAHousehold Travel Behavior ojectid 540 0.2952 14Represented in utilityexpressions:7

What influencestravel behavior?Reports and tsand-DocumentsEnhancements for 2021 Regional PReportV2.pdfSensitivity Testing nsitivityReportV3.pdfHousing, population,& land useTransportationnetworks Population/housinggrowth Employment Enrollment Population &Employment densities Roadway network Transit network Transit service frequencies Bike and pedestriannetworksPricing StrategiesOther Policies Telework rates E-bike ownershipRoad user costParking supply and costTransit fareToll 15ABM 2 PeerReviewTier 4 PRP Highest level PRP Peer reviewed twice11 National Experts FHWACARBCA MPO expertsMPO experts from otherStates Academia Private sectorEvaluation Highlights: Well above state of practice Some features are state of art Highly praised sensitivity tests Ready for 2021 RP 168

Strategy EvaluationComplete CorridorsTransit Leap Managed LanesHigh Occupancy Vehicle policiesRegional Bike NetworkCongestion Pricing/Toll RatesRegional Road user chargeCommuter railLight RailNext Generation RapidLocal BusTransit Fare SubsidiesNext OSTechnical Methodology Submitted toCalifornia Air Resources l%20Methodology%20to%20Estimate%20GHG%20Emissions with%20appendices February%202021.pdf Active TransportationDemand Management (ATDM) Smart Signals 17Strategy EvaluationFlexible Fleets & Mobility HubsZero Emission Vehicles Regional EV Charger Program Regional EV Incentive ProgramLocal complete streetsParking management & FeesMicrotransitMicromobilityPooled TNC’s & TNC FeesE-bikesDemand ManagementTechnical Methodology Submitted toCalifornia Air Resources l%20Methodology%20to%20Estimate%20GHG%20Emissions with%20appendices February%202021.pdf TeleworkPooled rides (private)VanpoolCarshareRegional TDM Ordinance 189

AnalyzingABM2 OutputsABM2 ReportingCode TravelDistance &TimeTravelVolumesTravelCostFilters Travel Mode Trip Purpose or Destination Vehicle Type Time of Day Socio-Economic VariablesOther Uses Input into another model Benefit/Cost Emission19 Performance Measure AssessmentDraft output performance measures: https://sandag.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id le Miles Traveled (VMT)Summation of traffic assignment results for each link (volume *length)SB 375 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGper capita)Traffic assignment results of VMT by speed bin are fed intoCARB’s EMFAC software in SB 375 mode (SB 375 does notinclude heavy vehicles)Access to opportunities via transitAM peak period journey to work travel time door to door (zone to(employment centers and higher education) zone)Access to basic needs (retail, parks, andmedical) via mode for the region andmobility hubsAssesses percentage of population with a door to door (zone tozone) travel time within a specific time interval to at least 1location.Benefit Cost RatioSpecific tool used to monetize benefits/disbenefits (travel timesavings, safety, air quality, physical activity, fuel, etc.) over thelife of the plan/cost.Mode SharePercentage of trips made by mode (work trip peak period, alltrips all day) 2010

Ensuring the Quality of the Data 21Research and Program ManagementPeer Review Process(PRP)Office of Quality Assuranceand Quality Control (QA/QC) 2211

What is a PRP?A formalmechanismTo ensure data,analyses, reports,and otherinformationcompiled Tier 1 - Intra-departmental(DAM)Are valid, reliable,and easy tounderstand Tier 2 - Inter-departmental Tier 3 - Inter-agency Tier 4 - Expert Review 23PRP Accomplishments to Date 123 PRPs completedsince March 2017 65 related to the Regional Plan 12 Tier 4 reviews withoutside experts 2412

Quality Assurance & Quality ControlDedicated teamof data analystsSkilled instatistical andanalytic toolssuch as R,Python, SPSS,SQL, & GISAssigned to conductdetailed qualityassessments ofSANDAG data andanalytic productsTo ensure validity andreliability of the data tothe highest degreepossible and totransparently documentlimitations 25QA/QC Accomplishments to Date68 reviews in 2020 & 2021, 24related to the Regional Plan Examples of Findings/ResultsMultiple reviews of Regional ForecastversionsRegional parking data, assumptionsand calculationsOff Model CalculatorsAir Quality Conformity CalculationsRegional Plan Transit Operations Costsand Revenues in 2020 and Year ofExpenditure Use of data in Draft Regional Planappendices Improvements to Excel spreadsheets toprovide clarity, traceability, & reducepotential for error Improvements to SQL query logic Established new technique for QC ofsmaller geographies Establishing project charters &checklists 2613

A bold newapproach toplanning forthe futureEmbracing datadriven planning,leveragingemergingtechnologies,and incorporatingresident input 2714

2021 Regional Plan:Cost Estimation Methodologyand Funding StrategiesBoard of Directors March 12, 2021Panel: Pricing StrategiesBoard of Directors March 12, 202115

Panel DiscussionMODERATORPANELISTHaney HongBrianne EbyBob PooleExecutive Directorand CEOSenior Policy AnalystEno Center forTransportationDirector ofTransportation PolicyReason FoundationWashington D.C.Washington D.C.San Diego CountyTaxpayers AssociationSan DiegoPANELISTPANELISTMichaelManvilleAssociate Professorof Urban PlanningUCLA LuskinCenterLos Angeles 32021 Regional Plan:Cost Estimation Methodologyand Funding StrategiesBoard of Directors March 12, 202116

Cost Estimate ComparisonDRAFT(in billions of 2020 dollars) 5.9 6.0 9.1 4.9 16.6 17.0 44.8 37.5 163 Billion 130 Billion 87.7 63.72015 Regional Plan (Adopted)Operations2021 Regional Plan (Estimate)Local streetsand roadsCapitalDebt ServicePrograms 5Cost Estimate Comparison 55.5DRAFT 60.0 -T ra nsitOp era tion sM an.La nes /Reg .Roa dwa ysT ra nsit Ca pita lL ocal St ree tsan d Ro adsCA Hig h Spe edRailF re eway Opsan d M aint .ActiveT ran spo rta tionT DM/ Ince ntivePgm s/Gr ant s 5.0 4.8Go od sM ovem en t 0.2 0.5 2.9 3.7 9.1De bt Se rvice 3.1 4.9 10.0 5.9 18.6 10.0 11.0 17.0 26.7 25.9 16.6 20.0 24.7 30.0 27.6 40.0 19.6(in billions of 2020 dollars) 50.0T ra nsit F ar eSub sidiesM obility Hub s/F lex F leet sNe xt Op er atingSyste m 617

Revenue Assumption Comparison 34.4 34.5 30.0 -State Formula Federal& GrantsFormula &GrantsTransNetGeneral LocalFareboxRevenue 15.7 2.2 0.5 0.2 1.7 1.1 1.0 5.0 5.0 5.7 4.7 6.8 14.2 15.7 6.9 7.6 5.4 13.5 9.9 10.0 8.8 10.6 15.0 15.7 18.2 20.0 18.4 25.0 18.3 18.5(in billions of 2020 dollars) 35.0DRAFTTransportation Future State Future LocalFutureManagedMitigationPrivateFederal Other Future TNCDevelopment Road UserSales Tax Federal Fuel Lanes Tolls Fees & Other InvestmentFeesActChargeTax2015 Regional Plan (Adopted)FutureRegionalRoad UserCharge2021 Regional Plan (Estimate) 7FundingStrategiesComparisonDRAFT2015 RegionalPlan (Adopted)2021 Regional Plan(Estimated)Future Local Regional Sales Tax: 0.005 7 11Future MTS Service Area Sales Tax: 0.005N/A 7N/A 2Additional Sales TaxTransportation Network Company FeesPer Trip Fee Non-Pooled 1.25 & 0.65 PooledRoad Usage ChargeFuture Local Road Usage Charge: 0.02/mileN/A 16Future State Road Usage Charge: 0.02/mile 7 16State Housing Revenue for Transportation(SB 795)N/A 4Network of Priced Managed Lanes 1 13California High Speed Rail 8N/A(in billions of 2020 dollars)18 8

Summarized Revenue by Funding MechanismDRAFT(in billions of 2020 dollars)Summary ofAttachment 22015 Regional Plan(Adopted)2021 Regional Plan(Estimated)% of total% Change from2015 Regional Plan% of totalFuel Taxes 5341% 5432%2%Sales Taxes 3325% 3421%6%User Fees 1713% 4728%179%Local General Funds 129% 74%-39%Financing 86% 0.50%-93%Tolls 54% 149%186%Cap and Trade 21% 21%16%Impact Fees 0.81% 43%477%Fees 0.30% 0.30%-6%Private Investment 0.20% 1.71%742%GRAND TOTAL 130100% 165100% 9Addressing the ChallengesCongestionFairCleanlciaSo uityEqFastState & FederalMandates 1019

Upcoming2021RegionalPlan ItemsMeeting DateTopicApril 9Technology ConsiderationsApril 23Social EquityMay 14Alignment of State, Regional, and Local PlanningMay 28Release Draft 2021 Regional Plan aseDraft PlanReleaseDraft EIRAdopt Planand Certify EIR 1220

ABM2 Evaluation 11 SCS Land Use Scenario Transportation Policy Strategies Networks Activity Based . Zero Emission Vehicles Regional EV Charger Program Regional EV Incentive Program Demand Management . Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Summation of traffic assignment results for each link (volume * length) SB 375 Greenhouse Gas .