Airline Revenue Management - Aviation.itu.edu.tr
Airline RevenueManagementThe statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute anoffer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used orrelied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing.Boeing is a trademark of The Boeing Company.Copyright 2013 Boeing. All rights reserved.Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Objectives Explain why revenue management is important Define best revenue management tactics that areimportant for your airline Describe which ancillary revenues can improve yourairline’s bottom line and why it is important Explain how social media, online booking and big datacan cut costs and improve your airline revenueCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Why does airline pricing seem so random? How did another passenger pay 50% less than I did?Why did the fare increase 1,000 overnight?Does it really cost the airline 3x as much to fly on Thursday?Why do I have to pay 59 to sit in the exit row? 751? 1,442?Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 2,095? 269?
Airline Revenue Management – OverviewWhy is revenue management important?How do economic concepts drive revenue management?Core principles of revenue optimizationHow are customers impacted by revenue management?How does the revenue management process work?Challenges and trends in revenue managementCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
What is revenue management?RevenuemanagementPricing Create overall pricing strategybased on cost and competition Determine fare levels (prices) Design fare rules to differentiatebusiness vs. leisure customers Evaluate and respond tocompetitor fare/capacity changesCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.Inventory Forecast high-fare vs. low-faredemand for each flight Decide how many seats to sell ateach price according to demand Monitor demand on each flightand adjust fare availability to match Manage overbooking levelsbased on expected cancellationsand no-shows
Why have revenue management?Balance supply and demand with variable pricingProtect seat inventory for the airline’s most valuable customersStimulate demand on (or shift to) flights with excess capacityCapture maximum possible revenue from each customerProtect the airline’s competitive position in a marketUltimate goal:Maximize revenue (minimize loss) on every flight!Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Revenue has a disproportionate impact onprofitabilityA 1% increase in revenue has same affect on operating profit as:A 13.1% decrease in maintenance costA 10.5% decrease in fuel expenseA 7.1% decrease in ownership cost20-2-4-6-8777-200ERUS International Rules3,000 nm-10-12-14RevenueCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.MaintenanceFuelOwnership
An entire year’s profit can be made (or lost!)in just one seasonSample Airline Profitability By SeasonRevenueCost (variable)Cost (fixed) Q1Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.Q2Q3Q4
Revenue management is the core of theairline’s revenue-generation chainFleet, network, & schedule planningSales, marketing, & loyalty (FFP)Execution LeadShorter Time / FlexibilityLongerPromote the product to customersDevelop relationships for market share and yield premiumRevenue managementOptimize revenue based on network / scheduleFind revenue opportunities & threatsDistributionMake inventory available in every sales channel at lowest costTarget offers to specific customers by segment & channelAirport & onboard serviceDeliver the expected product on every flight, every dayCreate customer experience to drive new and repeat businessCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.StrategicTacticalBuilds strategic plan for airline growthSearch for new markets and opportunities
A revenue forecast & variances from plancreate an early warning systemWarns of future revenue shortfallsAllows the airline to take action through adjustments to pricing, distribution,promotions, or scheduleIdentifies specific source(s) of revenue weaknessWhich markets or points of sale?Which seasons or days of week?Evaluates impact of competitors’ actions and strategiesDecision to match a competitor’s fare reductionCompetitive capacity changes relative to total demandCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Demand forecasts provide critical informationfor airline decisionsIdentify revenue opportunity on each flightAllows airline to keep seats available for late bookings(high-revenue customers)Provide guidance for personnel and equipmentplanning during peak travel seasonsRevenue management uses forecasting to matchpricing to demand by opening and closing fare classesMaximize revenue by selectively accepting or rejectingreservation requests based on value relative toforecasted demandCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Airline Revenue Management – OverviewWhy is revenue management important?How do economic concepts drive revenue management?Core principles of revenue optimizationHow are customers impacted by revenue management?How does the revenue management process work?Challenges and trends in revenue managementCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
As price decreases, demand increasesNumber of people willing totravel at each fare level 100Fare0Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.Demand (number of people)100
Offering just one fare limits revenue potential 100Passengers: 50Revenue: 2,500Willing to paymore for aseatFare 50Demand at singleeconomy fare0Cannot afforda higher fare50Seats sold100Unrealized revenue potentialCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Offering just one fare limits revenue potentialExtreme case 1 80FarePassengers:20Revenue: 1,600High RPK / yieldLow load factorLow revenueClassDemand (passengers)Extreme case 2Fare 20ClassPassengers:80Revenue: 1,600Low RPK / yieldHigh load factorLow revenueDemand (passengers)Unrealized revenue potentialCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Offering multiple fares is good for the airlineandits customers 100Passengers: 80Revenue: 4,000Fare 50AFare0BFareCFareDFare50Seats soldUnrealized revenue potentialCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.100
Price discrimination: Charging customersdifferent prices for the same productBased on willingness or ability to payBusiness customers can pay more for their travelThe business customer must travel; the leisure customer wants to travelA third party (employer) is paying for their travelBusiness ticket purchases are usually easy to detectDepart Sunday/Monday; return Thursday/FridayBuy tickets close to departure dateOften change or cancel ticket (need flexibility to do so without penalty) 751Researchertraveling to speakat conference 1,442Once-in-a-lifetimetrip to climbMt. EverestCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 2,095Sales executiverushing to savecritical order 269Weekend tripto visit friend
Price discrimination: Charging customersdifferent prices for the same productMany business models utilize price discriminationUseful when fixed costs are high, marginal costs are low, andinventory is perishable or time-dependentHotels, rental cars, cruise linesCinema, concerts, etc.: Wednesday afternoon vs.Friday nightPubs, nightclubs: happy hour, ladies’ nightUniversities: scholarships & other financial aidBakeries: “50% off all baked goods after 15:00”Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Pricing strategies must be adapted to matchthe airline’s environmentElasticityCost structure Low costs are necessaryto competePrice Many prices, same basicproductQuantityCompetitionMarket Schedule / servicequality Economic activity Passenger preferences Passenger characteristics Market shareCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. Market development
Airline Revenue Management – OverviewWhy is revenue management important?How do economic concepts drive revenue management?Core principles of revenue optimizationHow are customers impacted by revenue management?How does the revenue management process work?Challenges and trends in revenue managementCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Offering multiple fares is good for the airlineand its customers 100Passengers: 80Revenue: 4,000Fare 50AFare0BFareCFareDFare50Seats soldUnrealized revenue potentialCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.100
Optimizing fare class availability maximizesrevenue 30,000 25,000LegendV 20,000FlightrevenueHBY 26,000 24,000 16,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0Case 3Case 2Case 1AveragefareUnconstraineddemandCase 1Case 2Case 3Y 4002002020B 30030103030H 20040403040V 10050501010Totalpassengers14010090100Airplane capacity 100Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Optimizing fare class availability y:140XX190AAA-BBBFriday, 26 JunEconomy000/100Maximum availability by fare tureFare60LeisureFare4020Sale Fare0120 100 847260483830211914Days before departureCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.107420-1
Example: Protecting peak-flight inventoryLate Friday is a peak demand period for business travelersflying home, so afternoon and evening flights are reserved for higheryield passengersFlights atpeakhoursprotected forhigherfaresCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
How does an airline decide whether to accepta booking?A hypothetical case “Getaway Airlines” has one seat left on a future flight The airline sells seats at two prices: 275 & 650 A passenger calls desiring a 275 ticket for a flightDecision:Should the airline a) Accept the 275 booking, orb) Refuse the booking in hopes of selling the same seat to a 650 passenger?Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
How does an airline decide whether to accepta booking?Sell discount fare 275Prob (demand current bkd)? 650Wait for higher fare!Prob (demand current bkd)Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 0
How does an airline decide whether to accepta booking?Sell discount fare 275Prob (demand current bkd)? 650Wait for higher fare!Prob (demand current bkd)Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 0
How does an airline decide whether to accepta booking?Sell discount fareProb 100%Payoff 275 275Prob (demand current bkd)?Wait for higher fareProb 60%Payoff 390 650!Prob (demand current bkd)Indifference probability 275 / 650 42%Prob 40%Payoff 0 0If the probability of a 650 booking 42%, then the expected payoff ofwaiting is higher and we should refuse the 275 bookingCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
When is revenue management mosteffective?Flights with high demandLimit lower-fare availability to protect seats for higher-fare customersNormal peak travel periods or special eventsSun/Mon/Thu/Fri for business marketsWeekends for leisure destinationsHolidays / school dayMondaySpecial events with large groups(conferences, sporting events, etc.)On low-demand flights, customers with higher willingness to payare “sold up” to higher fares by pricing rulesAdvance purchase requirementSaturday night or minimum stay at destinationAbility to change/cancel without penaltyCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
End result: Booking data shows customerssegmented, revenue maximizedEconomyBusinessFare classUnsoldXLVHBYCJFare range--0 100 199 200 399 400 599 600 799 800 999 1,000 1,999 2,000 Average fare--0 162 324 541 758 974 1,624 2,707Passengers8(empty)1934232349231518Load factor4%9%16%11%11%23%11%7%8%Revenue-- 0 5,523 7,473 12,455 37,147 22,418 24,368 48,735Avg. advancepurchase(days)----6546353226116Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Focus on total network revenue, not just legrevenuePassenger 1Full fare Y, FCO-IST 100FCO“If there is one seat lefton the FCO-IST flight,which passengershould we bump?”“Which passengercontributes themost to networkrevenue?”ISTPassenger 2Discounted Y, FCO-DEL 250FCOISTCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.DELA revenue-optimal passenger mixbalances long and short-hauldemand, while maintaining theappropriate level of discount-fareavailability
In this simplified network, which passengersshould we accept to maximize revenue?Assume that demand is certain and no connection costs existWhat is your total revenue?DEL2 seats availableFCO1 seatavailableIST5 seats availableO&DFareRemaining DemandFCO-IST 1001IST-DXB 2002IST-DEL 2252FCO-DEL 2501FCO-DXB 2051Total AcceptedCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.DXBAccepted Passengers
In this simplified network, which passengersshould we accept to maximize revenue?Assume that demand is certain and no connection costs existWhat is your total revenue?DEL2 seats availableFCO1 seatavailableIST5 seats availableDXBO&DFareRemaining DemandFCO-IST 1001IST-DXB 20022IST-DEL 22522FCO-DEL 2501FCO-DXB 2051Total Accepted 1055Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.Accepted Passengers15
Passenger demand profileUnconstrained demand – customers wanting to bookConstrained demand – customers actually bookedDemand spill – Customers turned away for lack of seatsBookingsSeat capacityDays to DepartureCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Concepts: Spill and spoilageAverage Onboard AirplaneLoadCapacityDemand% DemandSpoilageoccurs whenload factor isless than 100%Spilloccurs whendemand exceedscapacityUnconstrained Passenger DemandCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Concepts: Spill and spoilageSpill is demand that was turned away because:Seats were not offered at a fare a customer was willing to payThe flight was sold out when the customer was attempting to bookSpoilage is seats left unsold at departure time because:Not enough seats were offered at discount faresToo many seats were held back for higher-yield customersCustomers booked seats but later canceled or no-showedOptimal revenue management requires acareful balance between spill and spoilageCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Minimize spoilage due to no-shows &cancellations with overbooking10090Legend8070BookedDenied boardingsCapacitySpoiled seatsOverbookedFlownPassengers 6050Capacity403020100Day 0Day 1Day 0Day 1Day 0Day 1Day 0Day 1Departure 1Departure 2Departure 3Departure 4No overbookingPerfect overbookingSpoiled seatsDenied boardings(no spoiled seats ordenied boarding)Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The cost of overbooking: “bumped” passengersDenied boardings will occur because of volatility in no-show rates;forecasts are rarely 100% accurateExistence of denied boardings does not mean the system has failedSome denied boardings are desirable – otherwise unnecessary spoilage occursOverbooking brings additional costs, which should be consideredwhen determining optimal overbook ratesDenied boarding compensationGetaway AirlinesGetaway AirlinesAlternate transportationHotel and meal vouchersCustomer goodwill but the revenue benefit of overbooking shouldoutweigh these costs!Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The cost of overbooking: “bumped” passengersWhen a flight is overbooked, ask customers at check-in tovolunteer for a later flight and offer them enough compensationto make it worthwhile!This reduces gate delays and builds customer goodwillEnsure that all denied boardings (voluntary or involuntary) arereported to improve future no-show forecastsCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Successful airlines focus on maximizingrevenue per available seat-kilometer (RASK)Total passengers flownLoad factor RASK Total available seatsTotal passenger revenueAvailable seat kilometersRevenue per available seat-kilometerYield Total passenger revenueRevenue passenger kilometersRevenue per passenger-kilometerCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Airline Revenue Management – OverviewWhy is revenue management important?How do economic concepts drive revenue management?Core principles of revenue optimizationHow are customers impacted by revenue management?How does the revenue management process work?Challenges and trends in revenue managementCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Customers see revenue management at workwhen they shop for airline ticketsHigher (lower) fares available during peak (off-peak) days and timesAirlines target flexible (low-yield)customers with “search /- days”option on websiteVacation-package providers and consolidators sell seats the airlinedoes not expect to be able to sell at higher fares“Opaque” travel sites hide airline nameand schedule until booking is completeDiscounted fares for large groups;airline trades higher yield for reducedspoilage riskCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Revenue management is key to the successof both low-cost and network carriersLow faresavailable onoff-peak dates;peak flightsprotected forhigher faresCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Revenue management is key to the successof both low-cost and network carriersHow is this anexample ofeffectiverevenuemanagement?Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Airline Revenue Management – OverviewWhy is revenue management important?How do economic concepts drive revenue management?Core principles of revenue optimizationHow are customers impacted by revenue management?How does the revenue management process work?Challenges and trends in revenue managementCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Revenue management processNetwork, capacity, scheduleForecast demandOptimize capacity, fare mix, overbookingSet fare availabilityForecast revenue & monitor performanceCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Revenue management – transaction flowBookingrequestBookingrequestGlobal distributionsystem (GDS)Computer reservationsystem (CRS)Seat inventoryFaresScheduleCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights rmation
Revenue management – sHistoricalbooking curvesRMFuturebooking t 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.ForecastingmoduleSeasonaldemand indexOptimizationmoduleInventorycontrolCabin capacityPlannedupgradesUnconstraineddemand routineFare mix ngFareclassmatrixOutputAuthorized bookinglimits by fare class
Pricing, inventory management, andscheduling should give each other continuousfeedback Inventorymanagement“Our normal leisure fare isn’tselling well could we add asale fare then?”Pricing“Tuesday‘s 9:00 flight has poorloads, even at our lowest fares.Could we swap in a smallerairplane?”Scheduling“We’re adding another Paris flight, but the newarrival time is not attractive; could we file a newfare for the eastbound leg?”Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
and should be jointly accountable formarket / network revenue performanceOtherwise, the result is a never-ending “blame game” Inventorymanagement“Inventory managementneveropens the lowest fareclasseswhen we file sale fares!”Pricing“Scheduling always puts in toomuch capacity!”?Scheduling“Our analysis clearly showed enough demandfor this additional flight! Pricing just can’t file theCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.right fares ”
Airline Revenue Management – OverviewWhy is revenue management important?How do economic concepts drive revenue management?Core principles of revenue optimizationHow are customers impacted by revenue management?How does the revenue management process work?Challenges and trends in revenue managementCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Revenue management complexity isincreasingMore computing power more precise demand forecastsForecasts based on passenger attributes, seasonality, etc.Managing interacting demand between fare classes (e.g., class nesting)Fare class availability moving fromleg/segment to O&D-based Balance local vs. connecting fare mix to maximize network revenue Increase connections betweenalliance partners#Joint RM controls betweenalliance members with antitrustimmunity################################ # # ## ##### # # ### ########## ###### # ###### ## #### # ##### ## ### ## # # # # ############# ## ## # # ## ##### # # # # # ## ## ## ### # ###### ## # # ## # # # # ############### ###### ########### #### ############# ############## ################# ############ #########Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.####Example: Sharing bid-price data onimmunized joint-venture flights####
Revenue management is becoming more difficultHistorically, most airlines segmented businessand leisure travel demand using fare rulesRefundable fareDay of week / seasonal fare validityAdvance-purchase requirementShrinking budgets force some businesstravelers to adopt leisure traveler purchasepatterns, making fare rules less effectiveLow-cost carriers often use “no-rules” fares tostimulate demand and increase market shareCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Internet enables comparison shopping, drivescustomers to more costly booking channels Increases difficulty of maximizing revenue capture Reinforces customer perception that travel is acommodity, which pushes airlines into destructive“price taker” behavior Price transparency allows competing airlines toobserve each other’s strategiesCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Reduce transparency and lower distributioncosts with “unbundling” of airline productsMany airlines are “unbundling” the travelexperience into pieces that customerscan buy separatelyChecked bagsPriority check-in and boardingPreferred seatsIn-flight entertainment and Internet accessThese “ancillary” products maximizeper-customer revenue capture whilemaking price comparisons more difficultCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Ancillary revenue is growing sharplyAirline-reported ancillary revenue has grown from 2.5B to morethan 31B in six years 35B 30B 25B 20B 15B 10B 5B 54747505359Source: IdeaWorks / Amadeus joint press release, July 16, 2014Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Ancillary revenue: not just for low-cost carriersSome large network carriers are the among the most successfulTop 10 Airlines - 2013 Ancillary Revenue Per PassengerQantasSpiritAirAsia XJet2.comAllegiantUnitedKorean AirVirgin AtlanticJetstarAlaska 0 5 10 15 20Source: IdeaWorks’ Yearbook of Ancillary Revenue Results, 2013Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved. 25 30 35 40 45
Improve customer perception of value through“fare branding”At first, customers may perceive unbundling as unjustifiedup-charging“Why is the airline making me pay for what I used to get for free?”Fare branding or “fare families” help clarify the relationship betweenfare paid and value received – and can even encourage “buy-up”!Video: AirNewZealand“farefamilies”Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Improve customer perception of value through“fare branding”At first, customers may perceive unbundling as unjustifiedup-charging“Why is the airline making me pay for what I used to get for free?”Fare branding or “fare families” help clarify the relationship betweenfare paid and value received – and can even encourage “buy-up”!Example: Air New Zealand “fare families”Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Customer data is being used to targetpersonalized product bundles and pricing Create customized offers based on customer profile andpurchase historyOffer discounts or bonuses (loyalty miles, free ancillary products)Reinforce customer loyalty by getting them to “shop with us first”Next step: Channelspecific pricing andavailabilityDrive traffic to lower-costbooking channels (e.g., airlinewebsite)Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
which means a wide range of data must beretained and analyzedAvailable fares &demand forecastScheduleAirline websiteWeb analytics /look-to-book dataOptimizationmodule or“offer engine”Call centersCustomer data / CRMEconomyGDS / agenciesCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.BusinessCustomized and dynamic product offers,pricing, and availability
The integrated customer database is key toan ideal revenue management platform Global distribution systems (agencies)EconomyReal-timeAirline web& call centerBookingclassEmptyBusinessXGLVHBYJDynamic seat availability decisionsReal-timeComputer reservationsystem (CRS);Seat riodicPeriodicSchedulePeriodicCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.Revenue management& network optimizationsystemDeparture control(check-in system)Periodic
but it requires an airline to capture and utilizea wide range of customer & transaction dataInternet retailers know that “look-to-book” matters just asmuch as “booked”What markets/dates are customers querying even when they don’t buy?Use website “screen scraping” to compare real-time faresAnalyze online fare searches by O&D to find restrictive fare inventoryor less-preferred schedulesMultiply RM’s benefits by using customer data to makecustomized offersTarget discount offers based on specific customer’s transaction historyReinforce loyalty by getting customers to “shop with us first”Infrastructure is expensive and customer buy-in takes time,but the return on investment is worth the effort!Copyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Important conceptsRevenue management maximizes revenue by forecasting demand,segmenting customers, & optimizing fare availabilityForecast data has many other valuable uses for an airlineOptimal revenue management requires acareful balance between spill and spoilageSuccessful airlines focus on revenue peravailable seat-kilometer (RASK)Future gains in revenue management will require a wealth of data inorder to understand customers and shape their behaviorCopyright 2014 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Revenue management is the core of the airline's revenue-generation chain Fleet, network, & schedule planning Builds strategic plan for airline growth Search for new markets and opportunities Sales, marketing, & loyalty (FFP) Promote the product to customers Develop relationships for market share and yield premium Revenue management
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of airline yield management. With the development of a single-leg booking simulation, we can isolate most of the external and indirect factors that influence an airline's overall revenue. We perform a number of simulations under different scenarios to estimate the real revenue impacts of airline yield management.
2.3 Risk management in the airline industry . 20 2.3.1 Airline business environment and risk management practice . 21 2.3.1.1 Key areas of airline risk management practice . 23 2.3.1.2 Operational risk management in airlines . 27 2.3.2 Trends and new directions in research and practice of airline risk .
airline industry in 1978. The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 deregulated the aviation industry while keeping the Federal Aviation Administration from the CAB era to control aviation safety for all airlines in the United States (Button, 2017; Williams, 1994). When the airline industry was deregulated, private companies had to figure out how to
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In general, user-mode hooking is intended for API monitoring, like Mark Russinovich’s ProcessMonitor (alias FileMon/RegMon), resource leak detection, various malware which doesn’t need to care about security issues, extending applications and libraries you don’t have the source code for (also cracks may fall in this category), adding a compatibility layer for existing applications to run .
