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THE RURAL REPORT AUTUMN 2015, Welcome to the special 10th. edition of The Rural Report, our biannual magazine for. ISSUES AND INSIGHTS, The challenges and opportunities. rural property owners facing rural landowners, 06 Agriculture. 08 Renewable energy, Much has changed over the five years since we first 09 Planning policy.
published the report 09 Political timeline, Back then a Tory Lib Dem coalition government 10 Interview Charlie Pye Smith. had just been formed now we have a majority 11 The Knight Frank Rural Business. Conservative government Commodity prices have Sentiment Survey. 12 Challenges and opportunities, been on a rollercoaster ride and a new Common. Agricultural Policy CAP has just been introduced, Average farmland values have risen by around 43. Over the following pages The Rural Report, examines these and other changes affecting rural. property owners in more detail and looks forward PROPERTY MARKETS. to see what the next five years may hold Detailed analysis of rural property markets. Things have also been changing at Knight Frank and their drivers over the past five years. we have grown our rural business significantly and 16 English farms and estates. opened a number of new offices around the UK 18 Scottish markets. Please see page 24 for more details 20 Investment land and development land. However some things remain constant Whether 21 International farmland. you need help managing your rural property require. a property valuation or would like to sell your estate. farm or country house our commitment to providing, the best advice and highest levels of service has.
stayed the same You can see some examples of this WORKING FOR YOU. on pages 26 to 30 24 K, night Frank rural expansion. The Rural Report is just one example of how we 26 Estate management case studies. aim to help our clients to make the most of their rural 31 Dear Tom tax questions answered. properties whatever their aspirations I hope you find 32 Building Consultancy expert view. the content interesting and useful, Please do get in touch if we can help. JAMES DEL MAR, Head of Rural Consultancy, THE RURAL REPORT Important Notice. Written and edited by Printing Pureprint Knight Frank LLP 2015 This report is published for general information only and. Andrew Shirley pureprint com not to be relied upon in any way Although high standards have been used in the. andrew shirley knightfrank com preparation of the information analysis views and projections presented in this report. Photography no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any. Marketing Jenny Stokes Hugh Nutt loss or damage resultant from any use of reliance on or reference to the contents of. jenny stokes knightfrank com Richard Stanton this document As a general report this material does not necessarily represent the. Design Art Direction view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects Reproduction of. Quiddity Media Limited this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank. quidditymedia co uk LLP to the form and content within which it appears Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability. partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934 Our registered office. Published by Knight Frank LLP is 55 Baker Street London W1U 8AN where you may look at a list of members names. THE RURAL REPORT AUTUMN 2015, INSIGHTS THE PAST THE PRESENT THE FUTURE. A special feature with insight from Knight Frank s experts and leading. third party contributors analysing the challenges and opportunities. facing rural landowners across different sectors, 2010 2020 In this.
AGRICULTURE, Prices politics and protests, RENEWABLE ENERGY. The wind of change affects policy, PLANNING POLICY. Creating a more favourable, environment for landowners. Charlie Pye Smith on, conservation policy gone wrong. RURAL BUSINESS, SENTIMENT SURVEY 2015, The issues you say are affecting.
your businesses, Leading rural figures look to, the future. THE RURAL REPORT AUTUMN 2015, 32 Fall in average, farm gate milk. prices since, November 2013 1 562, Fall in number of dairy. holdings in England, and Wales since, June 2010 113 t Drop in feed. wheat values since, December 2012 63 Fall in oil prices.
since March 2012, The past the Wheat prices, PEAK TROUGH. 214 t 98 t 116 t, SPREAD where acceptable to the public will. play a role but this will involve, present the future. significant investment leading, inevitably to further rationalisation. 200 across the industry, One economic factor that has been.
150 remarkably stable over the past five, years has been the Bank of England base. Andrew Shirley Knight Frank s Head of Rural Research looks at how some rate which has remained at a record low. of the key factors affecting rural property ownership have changed over the 50 of 0 5 over the entire period. Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 This has protected businesses from. past five years and examines the future outlook Source HGCA some of the downturn in commodity. Livestock prices prices but as James Del Mar Knight. Index June 2010 100 Frank s Head of Rural Consultancy. Agriculture Agricultural commodities have been, on an incredibly volatile journey over. harvest in Australia will have a, direct impact on the prices paid to. 150 warns on page 13 planning for the, SHEEP inevitable rise which may happen next. Comparing agricultural commodity the past five years the UK s farmers especially when PIGS. year is vital, After peaking at around 214 t in they produce a surplus over domestic 120.
prices now with when we first published Other issues to watch include the. The Rural Report it seems as if little has December 2012 feed wheat values have consumption levels impacts of CAP reform perhaps not so. changed crashed by over 50 Milk prices hit During the 2012 2013 harvest year 90. much the latest round which despite, The price of feed wheat at the a high of over 34 5p litre at the end of global wheat demand was 679 million introducing new greening requirements. beginning of June 2010 was 101 t at the 2013 before slumping by more than tonnes compared with production of 60 broadly maintained the status quo but. start of September 2015 it was virtually 11p litre Thankfully input prices 657 million tonnes For the current Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 what happens from 2020. the same Dairy farmers were paid such as fuel have also fallen year the situation has been reversed Source AHDB. Conservation groups want far, 23 86p litre on average for their milk Increasing globalisation of trade is production is forecast to hit 725 to 730 more emphasis on the delivery of. now they get 23 25p the culprit what happens in terms million tonnes against consumption However the price falls reflect a Exchange rate volatility also creates environmental benefits while budgetary. However that would be like saying of both supply and demand around levels of 715 to 720 million tonnes global imbalance between supply and problems especially for export driven pressures may force a radical rethink on. not much happens on a rollercoaster the world whether it s an economic According to grain traders cereal demand Butter and skimmed milk markets such as lamb The euro the level of direct payments. because you start and end at the bottom slowdown in China or a bumper prices should increase next year powder prices have slumped by as sterling rate also has a direct effect on. but even then the futures market is much as 40 since the end of 2013 but all farming businesses because subsidy. currently offering only 120 t for production is still rising Producers in payments are set in euros In 2010 a Cost of agricultural inputs v outputs. Milk prices PEAK TROUGH SPREAD Index June 2010 100. Milk p litre 34 6ppl 23 4ppl 11 2ppl November 2016 feed wheat However parts of Europe for example invested. heavily in anticipation of the scrapping, farmer with a 100 000 payment would. have received 88 000 at the current 150, one trader told me that there is every. chance that over the next five years of milk quotas in April 2015 rate their 2015 payment will be 72 500 OUTPUTS. prices will hit 200 t again we just Some kind of recovery is predicted Analysts say that not only is volatility. 30 don t know when or why it will happen next year as Chinese and Indian buyers here to stay but that the cycle between 120. and for how long return to the commodities market The peaks and troughs will get shorter. 25 The crash in milk prices has dairy sector s overall future does look As some of our contributors on. prompted a furious response largely positive as developing markets like Africa pages 12 and 13 point out farming. 20 aimed at supermarkets from dairy increase consumption but inevitably it businesses will have to ride out these Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun. Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 farmers cows have even been will be the primary producer who bears peaks and troughs by producing more 10 11 12 13 14 15. Source AHDB paraded through store aisles the brunt of short term volatility from less Science and technology Source DEFRA. THE RURAL REPORT AUTUMN 2015, The past the present the future.
Renewable However the scheme became a victim, of its own success and the government. Anaerobic and hydro schemes which, Planning Policy and AONBs will often trump. a lack of a five year supply, take advantage of the new PD rights. But other new opportunities exist, Energy decided that the FiT rates on offer were. have enjoyed lower levels of take up and, excite less controversy remain relatively In 2012 thousands of pages of planning and developments must still be says Andy The growing uptake of.
too generous see table below especially well financially supported but it is policy guidance were swept away and considered sustainable neighbourhood plans gives local. Five years is a long time in the, as the cost of installing renewable becoming harder to make the numbers A lack of clarity is the biggest communities greater control of. world of renewables replaced with the National Planning. schemes had dropped sharply Plus 5MW stack up for larger onshore wind and problem with the NPPF says Andy development and landowners who. In the first and subsequent Policy Framework NPPF, support schemes have also suffered a Different authorities interpret it engage with the process could benefit. editions of The Rural Report ground mounted solar schemes The NPPF was a game changer for. numerous pages were devoted to similar fate in different ways and there is no But the fact that the Conservatives. The government s emphasis is now many rural property owners according. explaining how landowners could much more focussed on offshore real consistency across the country haven t unveiled any significant new. to Andy McMullan of Knight Frank s, benefit from renewable energy in the Advances in battery wind and solar PV schemes on the planning department therefore an understanding of each planning measures since the General. form of the feed in tariff FiT scheme technology are going roofs of warehouses and other large Not only did it include a. council s approach is vital Election suggests they probably led. which had just been introduced to take the possibilities commercial buildings presumption in favour of sustainable. Inconsistency also affects another of most of the measures like the NPPF. introduced by the previous coalition, FiTs offered up to 25 years worth from micro generation So five years on have renewables. development but it also introduced, the big planning developments of the.
and further large scale change is, of index linked payments for schemes. below 5MW producing electricity from, to a whole new level gone from zero to hero and back to. far more stringent consequences for, past five years. unlikely over the next few years, Christopher Smith zero again Emphatically not says In 2014 the government introduced. wind the sun water and anaerobic local authorities that did not have a However increasing the availability. Christopher Smith Knight Frank s rural new permitted development PD. digestion even if you used the power Under the government s latest realistic five year housing supply in of housing in rural areas was part of. renewables expert rights that theoretically subject to. produced yourself proposals FIT rates will be cut even place Without this turning down Chancellor George Osborne s recently. It is still a very exciting time for rural satisfying certain conditions meant. The uptake was huge In April 2010 harder in 2016 disappearing altogether developments became significantly unveiled 10 point Rural Productivity. property owners but it s not receiving a full planning consent was no longer. there were 412 schemes with a combined by 2019 for some wind and solar more difficult and authorities were Plan although no substantive details. subsidy to generate electricity that will required to convert an agricultural. capacity of just over 1 000kW installed forced to progress with the adoption have been released. PV installations be the big attraction in the future it building into up to three residential. By April 2012 that had risen to 262 434 of new local plans. Rising public opposition to the will be the opportunity to go off grid dwellings with a cumulative area of. start of September 2015 it was virtually the same Dairy farmers were paid 23 86p litre on average for their milk now they get 23 25p However that would be like saying not much happens on a rollercoaster because you start and end at the bottom Agricultural commodities have been on an incredibly volatile journey over the past five years

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