Out-of-School Youth In Sub-Saharan Africa

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Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized94741Public Disclosure AuthorizedDIREC TIONS IN DE VELOPMENTHuman DevelopmentOut-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan AfricaPublic Disclosure AuthorizedA Policy PerspectiveKeiko Inoue, Emanuela di Gropello,Yesim Sayin Taylor, and James Gresham

Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Direc tions in De velopmentHuman DevelopmentOut-of-School Youth inSub-Saharan AfricaA Policy PerspectiveKeiko Inoue, Emanuela di Gropello, Yesim Sayin Taylor, and James Gresham

2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 18 17 16 15This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, itsBoard of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee theaccuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other informationshown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning thelegal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free tocopy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the followingconditions:Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Inoue, Keiko, Emanuela di Gropello, Yesim Sayin Taylor, andJames Gresham. 2015. Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Policy Perspective. Directions inDevelopment. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9. License: CreativeCommons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with theattribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an officialWorld Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with theattribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed inthe adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed byThe World Bank.Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rightsof those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If youwish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission isneeded for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of componentscan include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, TheWorld Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-0505-9ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-0506-6DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9Cover photo: Youth at a fruit and vegetable stand. Arne Hoel / World Bank. Further permission requiredfor reuse.Cover design: Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9

ContentsAcknowledgmentsAbout the AuthorsAbbreviationsOverviewIntroductionSix Key Factors of the Out-of-School Youth ProblemWhat Can Policy Achieve for Out-of-School Youth inSub-Saharan Africa?Entry Point 1: Retention of At-Risk Youth in SchoolEntry Point 2: Remediation through Formal or AlternativeEducationEntry Point 3: Integration with the Labor MarketNotesReferencesChapter 1Chapter 2Policy Challenges Associated with Out-of-School Youthin Sub-Saharan AfricaIntroductionNotesReferencesWhy Do Sub-Saharan African Youth Drop Out of School?IntroductionMagnitude of the Out-of-School Youth Population inSub-Saharan AfricaGender DisparitiesUrban/Rural DistinctionHousehold Characteristics and Out-of-School YouthSchool CharacteristicsNotesReferencesOut-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa v11211121416181819192223252526333840505455v

viContentsChapter 3Chapter 4Chapter 5Shared Characteristics of Countries with a HighIncidence of Out-of-School YouthIntroductionEducation Expenditure as a Percentage of GDPShare of Secondary Education Expenditure in TotalPublic Education ExpenditureGross Enrollment and Gross Enrollment GrowthInvestment in School InfrastructurePopulation GrowthShare of Wage and Salaried Workers and VulnerableEmploymentNotesPaths Back to Formal or Informal Education or to theLabor ForceIntroductionEntry Point 1: Retention of At-Risk Youth in SchoolEntry Point 2: Remediation through Formal or AlternativeEducationEntry Point 3: Integration with the Labor 595What Can Policy Achieve for Out-of-School Youth inSub-Saharan dix ASummary of Programs Reviewed111Appendix BData Sources123Appendix CCountry Typologies125Appendix DDistributions of Out-of-School Youth for SelectSub-Saharan African Countries129Appendix ESequential Logistic Regression Model133Appendix FSummary Results of Feda and Sakellariou’s (2013)Findings137Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9

2.17Out-of-School Youth, by Country and Country TypologiesGender and School AttendanceGeographic Location and School AttendanceParental Education and School AttendanceAdult Employment and School AttendanceHousehold Income and School AttendanceShare of Youth Who Cite Low School Quality as the MainReason for Dropping OutInteraction between Key Factors and Entry PointsOut-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa: EstimatedNumber and Share, by Age CohortSchool Attendance Status of Youth Aged 12–24 Years, by CountryShare of Out-of-School Youth Aged 12–24 Years, byCountry TypologiesShare of Out-of-School Youth, by Age Cohort and CountryTypologiesSchool Transitions of 15- to 24-Year-Old YouthOver-Age Enrollment and Dropout RatesGender and Schooling Outcomes for 12- to 14-Year-Old YouthGender and Schooling Outcomes for 15- to 24-Year-Old YouthGender Disparities: Percentage Difference in Share ofOut-of-School Girls and Boys, by Country TypologiesMarginal Impact of Gender on School/Work Outcomes forFemales Aged 15–24 Years, Compared with Males,by Country TypologiesGeographic Location and Schooling Outcomes for12- to 14-Year-Old YouthOdds Ratio at Various Transitions for Urban Youth Aged15–24 Years, by Country TypologiesImpact of Head of Household’s Education Level on12- to 14-Year-Old Youths’ Marginal Probability ofAttending School, by Country TypologiesOdds Ratio at Various Transitions for Youth Aged 15–24 YearsImpact of Household Income and Income-GeneratingCapacity on 12- to 14-Year-Old Youths’ Marginal Probabilityof Attending SchoolImpact of Household Income and Income-GeneratingCapacity on 15- to 24-Year-Old Youths’ Odds Ratio atVarious TransitionsCost and Household Spending on EducationImpact of Various Household Economic Characteristics on theMarginal Probability of 15- to 24-Year-Old Youths’Work/School OutcomesOut-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa 1112202728293132343536373940424344454749

15.1E.1Distance from Primary Schools for Out-of-School YouthYouth Who Cite Low School Quality as the Main Reason forDropping OutRepeaters in the Lower and Upper Secondary CyclesOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Education Expenditure as a Share of GDPOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Secondary Education Expenditure as a Share of TotalPublic Education ExpenditureOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Gross Enrollment RateOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Gross Enrollment Rate GrowthOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Share of Schools with ToiletsOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Population Growth RateOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Share of Wage and Salaried WorkersOut-of-School Youth, Difference from Regional Mean,by Share of Vulnerable EmploymentPolicy Interventions for Out-of-School YouthInteraction between Key Factors and Entry PointsEducational Transitions and Associated n Years and Dropout Rates, by GradeEducation Expenditure as a Share of GDP and Out-of-School YouthSecondary Education Expenditure as a Share of Total PublicEducation Expenditure and Out-of-School YouthGross Enrollment Rates and Out-of-School YouthGross Enrollment Rate Growth and Out-of-School YouthShare of Schools with Toilets and Out-of-School YouthPopulation Growth Rate and Out-of-School YouthShare of Wage and Salaried Workers and Out-of-School YouthVulnerable Employment and Out-of-School YouthCountries Grouped by Compulsory Education, by LevelNewer Cash Transfer Programs in Africa with Some EducationSupport ComponentSummary of Programs ReviewedSurvey Year and Survey Source for Data on Sub-SaharanAfrican CountriesIncome Levels of Sub-Saharan African ool Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9

ixContentsC.2C.3C.4D.1F.1F.2F.3F.4Colonial Heritage of Sub-Saharan African CountriesConflict History of Sub-Saharan African CountriesIncome Level, Colonial Heritage, and Conflict History ofSub-Saharan African CountriesDistributions of Out-of-School Youth for Select Sub-SaharanAfrican CountriesRegional Classification of 20 Countries StudiedImpact of Household Characteristics on SchoolingDecisions of 12- to 14-Year-Old YouthDeterminants of School/Work Outcomes for 15- to24-Year-Old YouthDeterminants of Schooling Outcomes at Transition Points for15- to 24-Year-Old YouthOut-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa 27130137137138141

AcknowledgmentsThe preparation of this study was led by Keiko Inoue and Emanuela di Gropello,under the overall guidance of Peter Materu and Sajita Bashir. The study was written by Keiko Inoue, Emanuela di Gropello, Yesim Sayin Taylor, and JamesGresham, with significant contributions from Chelsea Coffin, Kebede Feda, andChris Sakellariou. Himdat Bayusuf, Juan Manuel Moreno, and Owen Ozier alsoprovided technical contributions in the report’s early stages.This policy report aims to address two priority issues that have emerged forAfrican policy makers: (a) the growing pressure to provide universal secondaryeducation and the resultant trade-off between expansion, quality, and relevance;and (b) the shorter-term imperative of out-of-school youth. In both cases, it isfundamental to better understand the drivers and constraints to transitionsbetween each level of education, as well as the demand for secondary educationand skills in the current and developing labor market. This report and its underpinning diagnostic work aim to deepen the analytical base and informoperational programs, policy dialogue, and development projects designed totackle the out-of-school youth challenge.Cristian Aedo, Ernesto Cuadra, and Michel Welmond peer-reviewed thereport. The team also thanks reviewers at earlier stages including Peter Darvas,Deon Filmer, Kirsten Majgaard, Ana Ruth Menezes, and Reehana Raza. SukhdeepBrar, Jaap Bregman, Helen Craig, Linda English, and Margo Hoftijzer providedguidance at critical points in the report’s preparation. This report also benefitedfrom the excellent editorial work of Amy Gautam.The study was made possible by financial support provided under theNorwegian Post-Primary Education Fund and the Multi-Donor Education andSkills Fund, both of which are administered by the World Bank.Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9xi

About the AuthorsKeiko Inoue is a senior education specialist at the World Bank who has workedin more than 15 countries spanning East Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europeand Central Asia. In recent years, she has focused on the promotion of skillsdevelopment and positive youth development in low-income, middle-income,and conflict-affected countries. Her areas of research include analysis of learningoutcomes as measured by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment Programme for International Student Assessment in Albania andKazakhstan; public finance review of the education sector in Albania and Liberia;and education country status reports for Liberia and Rwanda. This report wasconceptualized and developed during her tenure as the co–team leader for theSecondary Education in Africa program.Emanuela di Gropello is a program leader in the Mali, Niger, and Chad CountryManagement Unit. She was previously a lead economist in the East Asia andLatin American Education Sector Units, where she worked and published extensively on governance, financing, and skills issues. She holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Oxford.Yesim Sayin Taylor is the director of fiscal and legislative affairs at the Districtof Columbia’s Office of the Chief Financial Officer. She leads the team that isresponsible for assessing the impact of proposed legislation on the District ofColumbia’s budget. She also testifies on and assesses proposals that affect thetax revenues of the District of Columbia. Yesim writes and publishes on publicfinance and tax policy, both for the District of Columbia and on issues thatlargely affect the developing world. Recently, she has investigated what makesa resident leave the District of Columbia—a location with a large transitionalpopulation, high living expenses, and relatively high income taxes. Her workshowed that tax rates have little explanatory power in people’s decision toleave the city. In international development, she has written public expenditurereviews in education and health, performed project feasibility studies, and hasmost recently written on the human development challenges in Mali after therecent political crisis.Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9xiii

xivAbout the AuthorsJames Gresham has consulted for the World Bank since 2008. He has workedwith the World Bank’s education teams on country and regional programs inAfrica, the Middle East and North Africa, Europe and Central Asia, and theWorld Bank Institute. He has experience with investment projects, technicalassistance, and analytical work related to primary and secondary education andyouth skills development. He is currently a doctoral student in the educationpolicy program at The George Washington University. He holds a master’s degreein international affairs from the School of International Service at AmericanUniversity in Washington, DC.Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9

SMSMICSNGOSSASTEPUNDPUNESCOUSAIDAdult Literacy Organization of ZimbabweAccelerated Compressed Learning for Malagasy Adolescents(Madagascar)Basic Education for Urban Poverty Areas (Uganda)Complementary Basic Education in TanzaniaCare of the Poor (Nigeria)U.K. Department for International DevelopmentDemographic and Health Surveygross domestic productLord’s Resistance Army (Uganda)Living Standards Measurement SurveyMultiple Indicator Cluster Surveynongovernmental organizationSub-Saharan AfricaSkills Training and Entrepreneurship Program (Ghana)United Nations Development ProgrammeUnited Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural OrganizationUnited States Agency for International DevelopmentOut-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-9xv

OverviewIntroductionThe economic and social prospects are daunting for the 89 million out-of-schoolyouth who comprise nearly half of all youth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Within thenext decade when this cohort becomes the core of the labor market, an estimated 40 million more youth will drop out, and will face an uncertain futurewithout work and life skills. Their lack of work and life skills will impairthese youth’s ability to get good jobs in desirable occupations, resulting inlow and unstable incomes while exposing them to potentially long periods of unemployment. The adverse effects of staying out of school will also be felt bythe next generation, since these youth’s poor economic outcomes will hurt theirability to provide favorable opportunities for their own children. Societies atlarge will feel the impact: economic growth will be constrained, limiting therevenue-raising capacity of governments, while the need for public expendituresto support these youth, who will be more likely to rely on government healthcare, public welfare, or housing assistance, will expand. They will have shorterlives than their educated peers, will be more likely to become teen parents andto commit crimes, and will be less likely to raise healthy children, engage in civicactivity, or vote or volunteer in their communities.With a growing cohort of out-of-school youth, the opportunities to addressthe compounding policy challenges are fleeting. While East Asian countriesturned their youth bulges into an engine for growth, the same phenomenonspells a potentially explosive economic and social disaster for Sub-SaharanAfrica. Efforts to address out-of-school youth issues must be cross-sectoraland driven by leadership at the highest levels. Yet the reality is that out-ofschool youth are often “policy orphans,” positioned in a no man’s land withlittle data to develop an evidence-based advocacy framework, low implementation capacity, lack of interest in long-term sustainability of programs,insufficient funds, and no coordination across the different governmental entities—ministries of labor, education, and human services, among others—that carry partial responsibility for these youth. The international focus fromdevelopment agencies, including the World Bank, is also fragmented. Thecontinent is mired with youth programs that were launched with much fanfare and then either fizzled when the desired outcomes were not immediatelyachieved or were abruptly terminated when funds (often external) ran out.Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0505-91

2OverviewThus, it is critical to elevate the issue to the highest political office withauthority to allocate sufficient funds and human resources to design, implement, evaluate, and then sustain interventions.To support the design of better policies that target youth, this reportexplores the overarching factors that contribute to the out-of-school youthproblem, specifically focusing on the 12- to 24-year-old cohort, whichincludes those most likely to drop out during the secondary cycle.1 There arestrong (and not surprising) links between a country’s socioeconomic anddemographic

D.1 Distributions of Out-of-School Youth for Select Sub-Saharan African Countries 130 F.1 Regional Classification of 20 Countries Studied 137 F.2 Impact of Household Characteristics on Schooling Decisions of 12- to 14-Year-Old Youth 137 F.3 Determinants of School/Work O

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