RECOMMENDED GROWTH SCENARIO October 29, 2020

How did we determine the amount of land area needed fornew growth?Virtual Event Survey Results(88 responses)The factors most critical to determining land area for growthare the density of edge development and the percentage ofinfill development. Several factors lead to the recommendededge density and infill assumptions: ouldyouyouprefer?prefer?50% or higher45-49%40-44%35-39%New approvals for edge developments in Lincoln over thepast ten years have an average residential density of 4.0units per acre. The existing Comprehensive Plan (LPlan2040) assumes 3.0 units per acre for edge development.30-34%25-29%20-24%15-19%10-14%Infill has accounted for 20 percent of new housing unitsover the past ten years, although that number increasedto 22 percent over the past five years as we continued tomove further from the last recession.Less than 10%0The infill assumption with the recommended scenario (25percent) is a 30-year average. It is expected that the infillrate will begin close to the trend (22 percent) and increaseto a higher number (around 28 percent) by 2050.24681012141618Whatdensity(du/acre)of edge growthwouldyou wouldprefer?you prefer?Whatdensity(dwellingunits/acre)of edgegrowth5.0 4.5-4.9Our demographic projections indicate that averagehousehold size in Lincoln will generally decrease overthe next 30 years. The trend towards smaller householdsizes suggests that there may be a desire for more smallhousing types, which in turn could mean a higher densityof itional incentives could also help to increase densityand infill. Several incentives are discussed in the FAQ “Whatare the transportation impacts of our growth scenarios?”.0In July we released our Growth Scenarios Summary Report,which included three possible growth scenarios. Thethree scenarios were intended to guide public discussionduring Virtual Meeting #2, which was available from Julythrough early September. Results of several growth-relatedquestions asked during the virtual event are summarizedon this page.5101520253035Scenario A: TrendsScenario B: LPlan ContinuedInfill: 22 percentInfill: 22 percentEdge Density: 4.0 units per acreEdge Density: 3.0 units per acreTotal New Area Needed: 8.6 sq miScenario C: Increased Infill, Trend DensityEdge Density: 4.0 units per acreTotal New Area Needed: 6.8 sq miAS OF JANUARY 1, 2020March 13, 2020Of these three scenarios, which would you prefer toLearn more about recentbuilding trends with the2020 Residential LandInventory Report atplanforward2050.comOf these three scenarios, whichwould you prefer to see implemented?see implemented?7060504030201007A40Total New Area Needed: 13.8 sq miInfill: 28 percentRESIDENTIAL L ANDINVENTORY REPORT20BC

The calculation for total area needed includes severalassumptions. Those assumptions are listed below: Urban Residential: The residential density figures arefor residential and associated uses only. Items includedwithin the residential category include non-residentialneighborhood uses such as neighborhood parks, trails,schools, and churches. The density number also includesstreets and rights-of-way. Commercial and industrial usesare calculated separately. Development Cushion: A cushion of 10 years is addedwithin the developable land calculations, meaning thatenough land is provided to satisfy demand through 2060based on our population projections. This “extra” land isincluded in order to provide flexibility for developmentoptions within the Future Service Limit. It is categorized asUrban Residential in our land use calculations. Commercial: Existing developed areas on the edges ofLincoln were analyzed in order to determine the amount ofcommercial needed for a typical square mile of suburbandevelopment. For purposes of these scenarios, 100 acres(0.15 sq mi) of commercial were assumed for every squaremile of residential development, which generally alignswith how development has occurred in Lincoln over recentdecades. The existing 2040 Future Service Limit will be developedprior to the new 2050 areas. There is approximately 13square miles of developable land within the existing 2040Future Service Limit. The total area needed for 2050 isin addition to existing available land within the FutureService Limit. A focus was put on identifying “developable” land withinthe growth areas - land that can reasonably be expectedto develop with urban uses. This is typically land that iscurrently agriculture or vacant. Land that is not consideredto be developable, and is not included in our growth areacalculations, includes areas with floodplains, wetlands,critical habitat, easements, existing acreages, and/orpublicly-owned land. Industrial: The existing ratio of industrial land per countyresident was extended out to 2050. Using existing ratios,Lincoln is expected to add approximately 1.9 squaremiles of industrial land over the next 30 years. Theexisting Future Land Use map shows nearly eight milesof vacant land identified for future Industrial uses alreadywithin the 2040 Future Service Limit. It is expected thatmost new industrial growth will occur in these alreadyidentified areas; however, there are several good Industrialopportunities in the 2050 growth areas, and so the landarea for those uses has been factored in to the calculations.Also included is a new designation for Light Industrial,which is discussed later in the FAQ.Total “developable” land to add beyond 2040Future Service Limit:Residential Cushion: 5.1 sq miCommercial: 0.8 sq miIndustrial: 1.0 sq miTotal: 6.9 sq mi8

How did we select the recommended growth area locations?Lincoln’s growth is primarily guided by urban infrastructureavailability, most importantly, the availability of gravitysewer. Lincoln utilizes gravity sewer, which is dependent ontopography, as sewer trunk lines are provided to basins thatnaturally drain into the existing system. Given the inherentstability of gravity as a force of nature, gravity sewer providesfor an efficient and reliable wastewater system, providespredictability for the development community, and is aresponsible use of rate payer dollars.We started by working with the Lincoln Transportation andUtilities Department (LTU) to determine the next basins inLincoln’s vicinity that could be served by gravity sewer. We thenidentified the major infrastructure costs (sewer, water, streets)to serve each basin. The eleven basins, along with infrastructurecosts, are shown below.Notes:Costs include construction of sewer, water, and streets.All listed costs are 2020 dollars in millions.Sq Mi area includes developable land only.77ÆþArea 2Sq Mi: 0.5Total Cost: 11.1Per Sq Mi: 22.1Area 1Sq Mi: 0.879 « Total Cost: 27.4Per Sq Mi: 34.180"! #" !#80Æ6þ34ÆþHavelock Ave180%('&Æ6þ80" !Area 11#Sq Mi: 0.377þÆTotal Cost: 12.2Per Sq Mi: 40.7Adams StVan Dorn StPioneers BlvdArea 6 «2 Sq Mi: 3.6Total Cost: 110.8Per Sq Mi: 30.8Yankee Hill Rd77ÆþSaltillo Rd77Æþ9Bennet RdWittstruck Rd134th St120th St98th St84th St70th St56th St40th StArea 7Sq Mi: 1.8Total Cost: 71.7Per Sq Mi: 39.827th St14th St1st StSW 12th StPine Lake RdRokeby RdArea 8Sq Mi: 1.8Total Cost: 59.5Per Sq Mi: 34.9SW 27th StA StOld Cheney RdArea 9Sq Mi: 0.2Total Cost: 31.3Per Sq Mi: 156.3SW 40th StO StArea 5Sq Mi: 2.5Total Cost: 101.5Per Sq Mi: 40.6 «2 Area 10Sq Mi: 0.5Total Cost: 10.9Per Sq Mi: 21.7SW 56th StHoldrege StArea 4Sq Mi: 0.834þÆTotal Cost: 72.7Per Sq Mi: 90.977Æþ «2 SW 70th StAlvo RdArea 3Sq Mi: 1.2Total Cost: 65.2 Fletcher AvePer Sq Mi: 54.3Roca Rd

Area 6 (not recommended): 3.6 square miles of developable area. Moderate infrastructure costs. Includes the future connection of the south and eastbeltways along with several possible east beltwayinterchanges. Would require extension of the Stevens Creek Trunk Sewer,which would first need to be constructed in Area 5. Thecombination of Areas 5 and 6, along with growth areas inother quadrants, exceeds the amount of land needed for2050. Area 6 is a good candidate as a 2060 growth area.Primary factors leading to selection of therecommended growth areas: The areas selected all have low or moderateinfrastructure construction costs. The existing Comprehensive Plan (LPlan 2040)supports multi-directional growth, and thatpolicy is expected to continue. Each quadrantincludes at least one 2050 growth area. The largest growth areas are in south and eastLincoln, which reflects ease of sewerability andmarket demand in these locations.Area 7 (partially recommended): 1.8 square miles of developable area. 1.0 square miles ofdevelopable land in the selected segment Moderate infrastructure costs. South Lincoln has historically been an area of highdemand. That is expected to continue with construction ofthe south beltway. Includes one south beltway interchange. Adjacent to the new southeast high school. The sewer for this area drains to the west, so Area 8 wouldbe developed first. Including the entire basin would result in more landthat needed being opened for development. Therecommended scenario includes a portion of this area. Theundeveloped portion to the south would be a prime 2060development opportunity.Area 8 (recommended): 1.5 square miles of developable area. Moderate infrastructure costs. South Lincoln has historically been an area of highdemand. That is expected to continue with construction ofthe south beltway. Includes one south beltway interchange. Given the sewer layout, Area 8 must be developed prior toArea 7. A “Large Employer Opportunity Area” was identified inthis location in LPlan 2040. That general area is shown asIndustrial on the 2050 FLU map.Area 9 (not recommended): 0.2 square miles of developable area. Highest infrastructure construction costs per square mile. Not a high demand growth area. Disconnected from other development areas.See below for a brief discussion of each area with anexplanation of why each was/was not selected.Area 1 (not recommended): 0.8 square miles of developable area. Moderate infrastructure costs. Limited potential uses due to proximity to airport landingzone. Extensive urban development in this area could present aconflict with the Nine Mile Prairie. There is nearby development capacity within the existing2040 Future Service Limit and in growth Area 2.Area 2 (recommended): 0.5 square miles of developable area. Low infrastructure costs. Directly adjacent to the Highland View and Fallbrookneighborhoods, which have seen significant growth inrecent years.Area 3 (recommended): 1.2 square miles of developable area. Moderate infrastructure costs. Sewer is already availableeast of Stevens Creek but water and urban streets needed. Growth opportunity for northeast area. Possible future location of east beltway interchange.Area 4 (not recommended): 0.8 square miles of developable area. Significant infrastructure costs. Sewer, water, and urbanstreets would all need to cross Stevens Creek. Includes a potential east beltway interchange. Could be a 2060 growth area.Area 10 (recommended): 0.5 square miles of developable area. Lowest infrastructure construction costs per square mile,by a wide margin. The area directly to the east is beginning to develop andinfrastructure is being constructed to support additionalgrowth through at least 2040.Area 5 (recommended): 2.5 square miles of developable area. Moderate infrastructure costs. East/southeast Lincoln has historically been an area of highdemand. That trend is expected to continue. Includes several possible east beltway interchange. Sewer would be provided by an extension of the StevensCreek Trunk line, which flows north. Development ofArea 5 in 2050 would open up Area 6 for the next tier ofdevelopment in 2060.Area 11 (not recommended): 0.3 square miles of developable area. Moderate infrastructure costs. Adjacent to the new northwest high school. Limited developable area. There is nearby development capacity within the existing2040 Future Service Limit.10

How did we determine land uses for the growth areas?The following method was used to construct the Future LandUse map for each growth area: A majority of land within each area is identified as UrbanResidential. This reflects the overall citywide land use,where Urban Residential is a majority of the city’s land area. It is important to protect potential industrial sites as aneconomic resource. In the case of our recommendedgrowth areas, the beltway interchanges provide a greatopportunity for some level of industrial developmentgiven their direct connection to several highways andI-80. On the proposed Future Land Use map, industrial isshown clustered around beltway interchanges. In totalapproximately one square mile of Industrial and LightIndustrial uses were identified in growth areas. The south beltway interchange near S 27th Street is shownas a Large Employer Opportunity Area in the currentComprehensive Plan and is shown as Industrial on theproposed 2050 map. Light Industrial is a new use being added to the FutureLand Use map for the 2050 Comprehensive Plan. It includesless intensive industrial uses that don’t involve loudnoise or dangerous chemicals. It also includes “heavier”commercial uses such as truck strops.11 Land area is provided for commercial uses, but specificlocations for commercial uses will not be determined untilthere are approved development plans for the area. TheComprehensive Plan includes policies about placement fordifferent types of commercial centers, and it is expectedthat those policies will remain for the 2050 plan update.Neighborhood commercial centers will likely be locatedin land currently identified as Urban Residential, and thereis the opportunity for some commercial uses in the LightIndustrial areas as well. The existing Future Land Use map already identifiesenvironmentally sensitive land in the 2050 growth areas,primarily along stream corridors. Those areas have beenmaintained. New urban land uses (Residential, Industrial)are primarily shown on land currently identified asAgricultural.

GIS mapping was utilized to help aid the discussion onpotential land uses. Positive ( ) and negative (-) rankingfactors were added into a spatial analysis algorithm tohelp identify “hotspots” for residential and industrialuses. The factors and results for each are shown below.Residential Factors:Floodplain (-)Prime Farmland (-)FLU Residential Buffer ( )FLU Industrial Buffer (-)Infrastructure CostsWetlands (-)Salt Valley Greenway Overlap (-)Salt Valley Greenway Adjacent ( )Railroads (-)Interstate/Highway (-)Pipeline (-)Tiger Beetle Habitat (-)Easements (-)Airport Noise District (-)Residential(ideal locations are green)Industrial Factors:TopographyFloodplain (-)Prime Farmland (-)FLU Residential Buffer (-)FLU Industrial Buffer ( )Infrastructure CostsWetlands (-)Salt Valley GreenwayOverlap (-)Railroad Access ( )Interstate/Highway Access( )Tiger Beetle Habitat (-)Easements (-)Industrial(ideal locations are green)12

How did we determine the updated growth tier boundaries?Tier I, Priority C: The next areas for development, after 2036,are those which currently lack almost all infrastructure requiredto support urban development.Growth tiers were determined based on expectedinfrastructure availability, which is shown in more detail in thewater and wastewater master plans completed by the LincolnTransportation and Utilities Department (LTU).Tier II: Tier II defines the geographic area the city is assumed togrow into immediately beyond Tier I. It shows areas where longterm utility planning is occurring today and acts as a secondaryreserve should Tier I develop faster than anticipated. The Tier IIarea would be typically expected to develop between 2050 and2070.As also shown earlier in this document, the description of eachtier is below. More discussion of growth tiers can be foundbeginning on page 12.5 of LPlan 2040.Tier I, Priority A: Priority A is comprised of undeveloped landwithin the City limits, as well as areas that are not yet annexedbut which have approved preliminary plans such as preliminaryplats, use permits, community unit plans, or planned unitdevelopments.Tier III: Tier III provides an area for Lincoln’s longer termgrowth potential — beyond 50 years. This area is based uponthe drainage basins located within the 3-mile extraterritorialjurisdiction, excluding the area identified as Salt Creek TigerBeetle habitat.Tier I, Priority B: Areas designated for development in the firsthalf of the planning period (to 2036) are generally contiguousto existing development and should be provided with basicinfrastructure as they develop.13

What are the transportation impacts of our growthscenarios?FHU is a consulting firm working on the update of our Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), which is occurring on thesame timeline as the Comprehensive Plan. They assembled a memo that summarizes the connection between land use andtransportation, shown on the next several pages.Land Use & TransportationSeptember 23, 2020Transportation and land use are inexorably linked – the types of development in an area oftendrive who travels there and how, and the existing transportation network is a major factor in whatnew types of development may come. As such, consideration of both is critical for alltransportation and land use planning efforts. The Lincoln-Lancaster Planning Department iscurrently working to update its comprehensive plan (the Lincoln-Lancaster County 2050Comprehensive Plan), of which both transportation and land use are major components. Threepossible scenarios for additional residential development through 2050 are under consideration –continuation of current trends (Scenario A), continuation of assumptions from the previous planupdate (Scenario B), and increased infill/density (Scenario C). The relative benefits and challengeswill be assessed for each related to infrastructure needs, transportation, character, sustainability,development, and housing affordability. This type of land use/transportation scenario evaluationhelps communities better understand the implications and tradeoffs associated with differentgrowth patterns.This paper has been prepared to document the results of a similar modeling exercise in Madison,Wisconsin, as well as to highlight potential incentive/disincentive programs andinvestment/mitigation strategies to support the scenarios under consideration for Lincoln.M a d i s o n, W i s c o ns i n S c e na r i o M o d e l

Source: Esri, Dig it alG lo be, GeoEye, Earthsta r Geographic s, CNES/Air bus DS, USDA, USGS,AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Communit y 0.5 Miles 8 4 T H S S T 1 4 8 T H T 1 1 2 T H S T OLD CHENEY RD A ST . Raymond Rd S W 8 4 t h S t Tier I, Prior