Forecasting The Future Of Your Business - Tnshrm

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4/28/2021Forecasting the Futureof your BusinessSHRM Strategic Leadership ConferenceNashville, TennesseeApril 30, 202121

4/28/2021AgendaI.II.III.IV.V.Forecasting & Why it is ImportantSteps to Conduct a forecastForecasting SoftwareData SourcesQ&A3I. What is Forecasting?The use of historicaland current data, tools,and techniques to makeinformed predictions ofthe future.42

4/28/2021Importance of Forecasting Make informed business decisions Develop data-driven strategies Create proactive, notreactive, decision making563

4/28/2021HR & Forecasting“Putting Forecasting in Focus” – SHRM articleby Carolyn HirschmanForecastingStrategic Workforce Planning7Seat at the TableNOW IT’S YOUR TURN!Take a minute to consider:How does the importance of forecasting relateto talent acquisition and management in thearea of compensation?4

4/28/2021Forecasting & Compensation Informed decision – replacementposition compensation higher or same? Data-driven – 20% of replacementpositions require higher compensation Proactive – Initial offer remains atprevious level9II. Forecasting Step by Step1.2.3.4.5.6.7.Define forecasting & planning problemDetermine resource needsCollect relevant dataConduct initial data analysisSelect forecasting methodGenerate forecastValidate forecast105

4/28/2021Define the Problem Purpose:o What do we hope to achieve by generatingthe forecast?o What plans depend on the results of the forecast? Horizon:o How far ahead do we wish to forecast? Information:o What do we know that will help in the forecast?o When will we know it? Value:o How valuable is the forecast?11Resource NeedsThe resources assigned to the forecastingproject should be commensurate with thepotential added value of improvedforecasts.126

4/28/2021Collect Relevant Data Determines whether the forecastingtask is feasible. Data sources:o Company recordso Surveyso Outside agencies (e.g. government)13Initial Analysis of Data This serves two purposes:1. Cleaning the data2. Understanding the data Visual ways to analyze datao Graphs (my preferred method)o Tables147

4/28/2021Select Forecasting MethodDo sufficientquantitative data exist?If yes, use quantitativemethods. Areexplanatory variablesavailable?If yes, use regressionanalysis andextensionsIf no, use judgmentalmethodsIf no, use exponentialsmoothing methodsor ARIMA15Generate Forecast This step depends upon the selectedforecasting method. As previously stated, time does notpermit us to do this today.168

4/28/2021Validate Forecast This step must not be overlooked! To validate, we compare actualoutcomes with forecasts. This is knownas back testing and involves the use oftwo samples:1.2.Estimation sampleHold-out sample17Forecast Example Results189

4/28/2021III. Some Forecasting Software Excel R (free, open-source) SAS Most likely, IT or BusinessIntelligence departments can helphere!19IV. Agency Data Resources U.S. Census Bureau – census.gov Bureau of Labor Statistics – bls.gov Bureau of Economic Analysis–bea.gov Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis –fred.stlouisfed.org2010

4/28/2021THANK YOU!Q&A11

Importance of Forecasting Make informed business decisions Develop data-driven strategies Create proactive, not reactive, decision making 5 6. 4/28/2021 4 HR & Forecasting “Putting Forecasting in Focus” –SHRM article by Carolyn Hirschman Forecasting Strategic W

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