Tong Yang Industry
TaiwanConsumer DiscretionaryTong Yang Industry16 September 2016(1319 TT)Tong Yang Indus tr yTarget price: TWD75.00 (from TWD66.00)Share price (14 Sep): TWD65.10 Up/downside: 15.2%Ready to take off Strong China OEM revenue growth of 27.4% YoY for 7M16 Embracing the peak season for both its AM and OEM businessesHelen Chien(886) 2 8758 6254helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Reiterating Buy (1) call and raising 12-month TP by 14% to TWD75What's new: We visited 4 of Tong Yang’s China OEM plants (FAW TongYang Foshan, Foshan Tong Yang, XiangYang Tong Yang and ChangshaGACC Tong Yang) in the second week of September to get an update onthe latest pipeline, strategy and core strengths of its China OEM business.We were impressed by the company’s production management, productioncapacity and R&D capability during this trip, as well as its solid pipelineover the next 3 years. We thus reaffirm our Buy (1) rating on the stock.Forecast revisions (%)Year to 31 DecRevenue changeNet profit changeCore EPS (FD) change16E0.81.21.217E1.17.57.5Source: Daiwa forecastsShare price performance(%)(TWD)What's the impact: Strong China OEM sales YTD. Tong Yang deliveredstrong China OEM revenue growth of 27.4% YoY for 7M16, up from 9.8%for 2015 and 23.8% for 2014. Looking forward, we expect its solid ties withleading China OEM car makers, such as First Auto Group, Changan Auto,Dongfeng Auto and Guangzhou Automobile, to continue to boost its ChinaOEM revenue, which we now forecast to rise by 17% YoY for 2016, up from10% growth previously. Besides its existing plants and clients, we see otherbusiness opportunities from First Auto Volkswagen’s in Qingdao, Tianjin,Chengdu, Chongqing as well as SAIC Volkswagen.The peak season is coming. Tong Yang’s after-market (AM) business sawrevenue growth of 6.7% YoY for 8M16, due mainly to strong demand inNorth America (up 14% YoY for 8M16), Central and South America (up 6%YoY) and Europe (up 5% YoY); these 3 areas accounted for c. 87% of itsAM revenue for 2015. The 4Q and 1Q is typically the peak season for theAM business, and for its China OEM business we expect a pick-up in ChinaOEM demand in 4Q16, given that the purchase-tax cut should only remainin effect until the end of 2016. According to the feedback we heard duringour trip, the purchase-tax cut will not be extended into 2017. Moreover, webelieve this tax benefit favours China local brands mostly rather than TongTang’s JV brand clients, and thus we expect a limited impact on TongYang’s earnings from the removal of the tax benefit at the end of 2016.Forecast revisions. We trim our 2016-18E revenue by 1% but raise ournet profit by 1-8% over the same period, as we now assume a higher grossmargin from an improving product mix and operating leverage.What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) call and raise our 12month target price to TWD75 (from TWD66), still based on the average ofour 2016-17E EPS with a higher PER of 16x (from 15x, still near the lowend of its past-2-year PER range of 13-28x), given the stronger earningsgrowth prospects that we now see over 2016-18E. The key risk to our callwould be weaker-than-expected business growth for the OEM segment.How we differ: We are the only foreign firm to cover the stock.See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Tong Yang (LHS)Relative to TWSE Index (RHS)12-month rangeMarket cap (USDbn)3m avg daily turnover (USDm)Shares outstanding (m)Major shareholder29.30-66.401.215.39591Wu family (50.0%)Financial summary (TWD)Year to 31 DecRevenue (m)Operating profit (m)Net profit (m)Core EPS (fully-diluted)EPS change (%)Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%)PER (x)Dividend yield (%)DPSPBR (x)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE 13.1Source: FactSet, Daiwa 1.76.014.5
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Financial summaryKey assumptionsYear to 31 DecSales growth of OEM business (%)Sales growth of AM business (%)Consolidated gross margin 593,882Profit and loss (TWDm)Year to 31 DecAMOEM-ChinaOther RevenueTotal RevenueOther incomeCOGSSG&AOther op.expensesOperating profitNet-interest inc./(exp.)Assoc/forex/extraord./othersPre-tax profitTaxMin. int./pref. div./othersNet profit (reported)Net profit (adjusted)EPS (reported)(TWD)EPS (adjusted)(TWD)EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD)DPS (TWD)EBITEBITDACash flow (TWDm)Year to 31 DecProfit before taxDepreciation and amortisationTax paidChange in working capitalOther operational CF itemsCash flow from operationsCapexNet (acquisitions)/disposalsOther investing CF itemsCash flow from investingChange in debtNet share issues/(repurchases)Dividends paidOther financing CF itemsCash flow from financingForex effect/othersChange in cashFree cash flowSource: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts2
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Financial summary continued Balance sheet (TWDm)As at 31 DecCash & short-term investmentInventoryAccounts receivableOther current assetsTotal current assetsFixed assetsGoodwill & intangiblesOther non-current assetsTotal assetsShort-term debtAccounts payableOther current liabilitiesTotal current liabilitiesLong-term debtOther non-current liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesShare capitalReserves/R.E./othersShareholders' equityMinority interestsTotal equity & liabilitiesEVNet debt/(cash)BVPS 15.718.581.41.750.550.010.1Key ratios (%)Year to 31 DecSales (YoY)EBITDA (YoY)Operating profit (YoY)Net profit (YoY)Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY)Gross-profit marginEBITDA marginOperating-profit marginNet profit marginROAEROAAROCEROICNet debt to equityEffective tax rateAccounts receivable (days)Current ratio (x)Net interest cover (x)Net dividend payoutFree cash flow yieldSource: FactSet, Daiwa forecastsCompany profileFounded in 1967, Tong Yang Industry is the world's leading after-market (AM) collision-partsmanufacturer, with 2014 global revenue market shares of 70% for plastic parts and 35% for sheetmetal parts. The company is also a major OEM auto parts supplier to China and internationalautomakers.3
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Completing its one-stop shopping modelNot just a bumper makerTong Yang provides aone-stop shoppingmodel, includingcollision auto parts andinterior auto partsThanks to Tong Yang’s one-stop-shopping model, around 40% of its revenue is nowderived from bumpers, while the rest comes from instrument panels, hoods, fenders andgrilles, etc. Over the next 3-5 years, we expect to see an increase in revenue for other nonbody parts (ie, interior parts or small parts), which usually have higher gross margins thanthose for the overall China OEM businesses (which average 15-20%).Tong Yang: product line-upSource: CompanyChina OEM plants – FAW Tong Yang FoshanEstablished in April 2012, FAW Tong Yang Foshan is a JV plant with First Auto Group(Tong Yang owns a 49% stake) and focuses on the production of bumpers and otherplastic auto parts, such as air spoilers and slide panels. Major car models include the Golf(A7, R-line, GTI and Sportsvan) and Audi (A3 and Q2).Tong Yang: FAW Tong Yang Foshan plantTong Yang: FAW Tong Yang Foshan plantSource: DaiwaSource: Daiwa4
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Tong Yang: FAW Tong Yang Foshan plantTong Yang: paint defects management systemSource: DaiwaSource: DaiwaTong Yang: monitor and control system for painting lineTong Yang: inventory management systemSource: DaiwaSource: DaiwaChina OEM plants – Foshan Tong YangFoshan Tong Yangfocuses on interior orsmall auto portsEstablished in September 2012, Foshan Tong Yang is 100% owned by Tong Yang andfocuses on the production of interior or small auto parts, such as instrumentpanels, steering column covers and glove box trims. Major clients are GZ Honda/Toyota,First Auto VW, and Dongfeng Nissan.Tong Yang: product categoryTong Yang: product categorySource: DaiwaSource: Daiwa5
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Tong Yang: product categoryTong Yang: product categorySource: CompanySource: CompanyTong Yang: Foshan Tong Yang plantTong Yang: Foshan Tong Yang plantSource: DaiwaSource: DaiwaChina OEM plants – XiangYang Tong YangXiangYang Tong Yangfocuses on plastic autoparts and platingprocessingEstablished in December 2011, XiangYang Tong Yang is 100% owned by Tong Yang andfocuses on plastic auto parts production, plating process interior surface processing(powder slush, IMG-S and IMG-L). Major clients are Dongfeng Nissan/Honda, DongfengPeugeot Citroen Automobile, Geely Automobile and Dongfeng Motor.Tong Yang: XiangYang Tong Yang plantTong Yang: XiangYang Tong Yang plantSource: DaiwaSource: Daiwa6
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016China OEM plants – Changsha GACC Tong YangChangsha GACC TongYang focuses on plasticauto partsEstablished in May 2011, Changsha GACC Tong Yang is a JV plant with Guangzhou Auto,in which Tong Yang owns a 49% stake. Its products include bumpers, spoilers, instrumentpanels, glove boxes, etc. Major clients are GAC FCA and Guangzhou Mitsubishi.Tong Yang: Changsha GACC plantTong Yang: Changsha GACC plantSource: DaiwaSource: DaiwaTong Yang: Changsha GACC plantTong Yang: Changsha GACC plantSource: CompanySource: CompanyTong Yang: Changsha GACC plantTong Yang: Changsha GACC plantSource: CompanySource: Company7
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Financial forecastsTong Yang: Daiwa’s revenue- and earnings-forecast revisions(TWDm)OEMAMTotal SalesSales growthGross profitGross-profit marginGross-profit growthOperating profitOperating-profit marginOperating-profit growthNet profitNet-profit marginNet-profit growthEPS 8%0.6pp6.8%Source: Daiwa forecastsTong Yang: quarterly P<WDmRevenueGross profitOperating profitProfit before taxNet profitBasic EPS (TWD)Diluted EPS 51.35MarginGross marginOperating marginPre-tax marginNet 51.6%50.5%YoYRevenueGross profitOperating profitProfit before taxNet profitQoQRevenueGross profitOperating profitProfit before taxNet profitSource: Company, Daiwa forecastsTong Yang: monthly pre-tax income and gross margin trend(TWDm)400Tong Yang: 1-year forward ax %Mar'14(100)18x7025%20022x0Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16Gross Margin %Source: Company;Note: The USD6.7m loss recognised in May 2015 was due to the settlement of the anti-trustlawsuit brought by Fond Do Lac (US) and Roberts Wholesale Body Parts, Inc (US)Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts814x10x16x
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Valuation and riskValuations undemandingOur 12-month targetprice of TWD75 is basedon a target PER of 16xOur new 12-month target price of TWD75 (from TWD66) is set at a target PER of 16x (from15x) applied to our average 2016-17E EPS. Our target PER implies a 0.7x PEG, based onour 2015-18E EPS CAGR, which we believe is fair given the company’s strong earningsgrowth outlook. It is also in line with the average trading PER among AM players in Taiwan.Risk to our callsWe highlight the following factors as risks to our rating, target price and forecasts for TongYang:Weaker-than-expected global demand. A sharper-than-expected macro-drivenslowdown could drag down global automotive demand, leading to weaker-than-expectedshipments by Tong Yang in the China OEM business. This is the major risk to our call.Weaker-than-expected gross margin expansion. Should Tong Yang’s gross marginsexpand more slowly and weakly than we expect as a result of: 1) slower-than-expectednew product launches, 2) stronger price competition from peers or pricing pressure fromclients, 3) lower-than-expected production yields and utilisation rates at its productionbases, this would have a negative impact on its earnings. This is the secondary risk to ourcall.9
Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 16 September 2016Daiwa’s Asia Pacific Research DirectoryHONG KONGSOUTH KOREATakashi FUJIKURA(852) 2848 4051Regional Research Headtakashi.fujikura@hk.daiwacm.comSung Yop CHUNG(82) 2 787 9157sychung@kr.daiwacm.comPan-Asia Co-head/Regional Head of Automobiles and Components; Automobiles;Shipbuilding; SteelJohn HETHERINGTON(852) 2773 8787john.hetherington@hk.daiwacm.comRegional Deputy Head of Asia Pacific ResearchMike OH(82) 2 787 9179mike.oh@kr.daiwacm.comBanking; Capital Goods (Construction and Machinery)Rohan DALZIELL(852) 2848 4938rohan.dalziell@hk.daiwacm.comRegional Head of Asia Pacific Product ManagementIris PARKConsumer/RetailKevin LAI(852) 2848 4926kevin.lai@hk.daiwacm.comChief Economist for Asia ex-Japan; Macro Economics (Regional)Olivia XIA(852) 2773 8736Macro Economics (Hong Kong/China)(82) 2 787 9165iris.park@kr.daiwacm.comSK KIM(82) 2 787 9173sk.kim@kr.daiwacm.comIT/Electronics – Semiconductor/Display and Tech Hardwareolivia.xia@hk.daiwacm.comThomas Y KWON(82) 2 787 9181yskwon@kr.daiwacm.comPan-Asia Head of Internet & Telecommunications; Software – Internet/On-line GamesKelvin LAU(852) 2848 4467kelvin.lau@hk.daiwacm.comHead of Automobiles; Transportation and Industrial (Hong Kong/China)Kevin JINSmall/Mid CapBrian LAM(852) 2532 4341brian.lam@hk.daiwacm.comAuto Components; Transportation – Railway; Construction and Engineering (China)(82) 2 787 9168kevin.jin@kr.daiwacm.comTAIWANLeon QI(852) 2532 4381leon.qi@hk.daiwacm.comBanking; Diversified financials; Insurance (Hong Kong/China)yan.li@hk.daiwacm.comRick HSU(886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.twHead of Regional Technology; Head of Taiwan Research; Semiconductor/IC Design(Regional)Anson CHAN(852) 2532 4350Consumer (Hong Kong/China)anson.chan@hk.daiwacm.comChristie CHIEN(886) 2 8758 6257 christie.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.twBanking; Insurance (Taiwan); Macro Economics (Regional)Adrian CHAN(852) 2848 4427Consumer (Hong Kong/China)adrian.chan@hk.daiwacm.comSteven TSENG(886) 2 8758 6252IT/Technology Hardware (PC Hardware)Jamie SOO(852) 2773 8529Gaming and Leisure (Hong Kong/China)jamie.soo@hk.daiwacm.comChristine WANG(886) 2 8758 6249 christine.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.twIT/Technology Hardware (Automation); Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare; ConsumerYan LIBanking (China)(852) 2773 8822steven.tseng@daiwacm-cathay.com.twJohn CHOI(852) 2773 8730john.choi@hk.daiwacm.comHead of Hong Kong and China Internet; Regional Head of Small/Mid CapKylie HUANG(886) 2 8758 6248 kylie.huang@daiwacm-cathay.com.twIT/Technology Hardware (Handsets and Components)Carlton LAI(852) 2532 4349Small/Mid Cap (Hong Kong/China)Helen CHIENSmall/Mid Capcarlton.lai@hk.daiwacm.comDennis IP(852) 2848 4068dennis.ip@hk.daiwacm.comPower; Utilities; Renewables and Environment (Hong Kong/China)Jonas KAN(852) 2848 4439Head of Hong Kong and China Propertyjonas.kan@hk.daiwacm.comCynthia CHANProperty (China)(852) 2773 8243cynthia.chan@hk.daiwacm.comThomas HOCustom Products Group(852) 2773 8716thomas.ho@hk.daiwacm.comPHILIPPINESPatricia TamaseBanking(886) 2 8758 6254helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.twINDIAPunit SRIVASTAVA(91) 22 6622 1013 punit.srivastava@in.daiwacm.comHead of India Research; Strategy; Banking/FinanceSaurabh MEHTACapital Goods; Utilities(91) 22 6622 na MARUVADA (65) 6499 6543ramakrishna.maruvada@sg.daiwacm.comHead of Singapore Research; Telecommunications (China/ASEAN/India)(63) 2 797 3024patricia.tamase@dbpdaiwacm.com.phDavid LUM(65) 6329 2102Banking; Property and REITsdavid.lum@sg.daiwacm.comRoyston TAN(65) 6321 3086Oil and Gas; Capital Goodsroyston.tan@sg.daiwacm.comShane GOH(65) 64996546shane.goh@sg.daiwacm.comProperty and REITs; Small/Mid Cap (Singapore)Jame OSMAN(65) 6321 3092jame.osman@sg.daiwacm.comTransportation – Road and Rail; Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare; Consumer (Singapore)10
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Chengdu, Chongqing as well as SAIC Volkswagen. Net profit (m) The peak season is coming. Tong Yang’s after-market (AM) business saw revenue growth of 6.7% YoY for 8M16, due mainly to strong demand in . Minority interests 1,575 1
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F. E. Tang is with Curtin University Sarawak Campus, CDT 250, 98009 Miri, Sarawak, Malaysia (phone: 60 85 443939; fax: 60 85 443837; e-mail: tang.fu.ee@curtin.edu.my). C. W. Tong was an undergraduate with Curtin University Sarawak Campus. He is now in industry. In wastewater treatment the goal is to achieve maximum
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