An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario And Its Implications For .
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for UnitedStates National SecurityOctober 2003By Peter Schwartz and Doug RandallImagining the UnthinkableThe purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of currentresearch on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on UnitedStates national security.We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, andreviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support thisproject, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First,they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, ratherthan on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, andwould challenge United States national security in ways that should be consideredimmediately.Executive SummaryThere is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occurduring the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projectedto be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potentialto be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is apossibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowingof the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weatherconditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regionsthat currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. Withinadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carryingcapacity of the Earth’s environment.The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverseweather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in theatmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit ina single decade. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns couldlast for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during theYounger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.
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In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that areso common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100 year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario ischaracterized by the following conditions: Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asiaand North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in keyareas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and inthe water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and easternNorth America. Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes.Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentiallyde-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and evenwar due to resource constraints such as:1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shiftedprecipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminessAs global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around theworld, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations withthe resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preservingresources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancientenmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, cleanwater, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift andthe goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.This scenario poses new challenges for the United States, and suggests several stepsto be taken: Improve predictive climate models to allow investigation of a wider range ofscenarios and to anticipate how and where changes could occur Assemble comprehensive predictive models of the potential impacts of abruptclimate change to improve projections of how climate could influence food,water, and energy Create vulnerability metrics to anticipate which countries are most vulnerableto climate change and therefore, could contribute materially to an increasinglydisorderly and potentially violent world.Abrupt Climate Change2
Identify no-regrets strategies such as enhancing capabilities for watermanagement Rehearse adaptive responses Explore local implications Explore geo-engineering options that control the climate.There are some indications today that global warming has reached the thresholdwhere the thermohaline circulation could start to be significantly impacted. Theseindications include observations documenting that the North Atlantic is increasinglybeing freshened by melting glaciers, increased precipitation, and fresh water runoffmaking it substantially less salty over the past 40 years.This report suggests that, because of the potentially dire consequences, the risk ofabrupt climate change, although uncertain and quite possibly small, should beelevated beyond a scientific debate to a U.S. national security concern.Climate ChangeColdDryStormsReduction in CarryingCapacityFoodWaterEnergyAbrupt Climate ChangeNational SecurityImplicationsBorder managementGlobal conflictEconomic malaise3
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for UnitedStates National SecurityOctober 2003IntroductionWhen most people think about climate change, they imagine gradual increases intemperature and only marginal changes in other climatic conditions, continuingindefinitely or even leveling off at some time in the future. The conventional wisdomis that modern civilization will either adapt to whatever weather conditions we faceand that the pace of climate change will not overwhelm the adaptive capacity ofsociety, or that our efforts such as those embodied in the Kyoto protocol will besufficient to mitigate the impacts. The IPCC documents the threat of gradual climatechange and its impact to food supplies and other resources of importance to humanswill not be so severe as to create security threats. Optimists assert that the benefitsfrom technological innovation will be able to outpace the negative effects of climatechange.Climatically, the gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture willcontinue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen. Northern Europe, Russia, andNorth America will prosper agriculturally while southern Europe, Africa, andCentral and South America will suffer from increased dryness, heat, water shortages,and reduced production. Overall, global food production under many typical climatescenarios increases. This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of selfdeception, as increasingly we are facing weather related disasters -- more hurricanes,monsoons, floods, and dry-spells – in regions around the world.Weather-related events have an enormous impact on society, as they influence foodsupply, conditions in cities and communities, as well as access to clean water andenergy. For example, a recent report by the Climate Action Network of Australiaprojects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in the rangelands, which couldlead to a 15 per cent drop in grass productivity. This, in turn, could lead toreductions in the average weight of cattle by 12 per cent, significantly reducing beefsupply. Under such conditions, dairy cows are projected to produce 30% less milk,and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas. Additionally, suchconditions are projected to lead to 10% less water for drinking. Based on modelprojections of coming change conditions such as these could occur in several foodproducing regions around the world at the same time within the next 15-30years,challenging the notion that society’s ability to adapt will make climate changemanageable.Abrupt Climate Change4
With over 400 million people living in drier, subtropical, often over-populated andeconomically poor regions today, climate change and its follow-on effects pose asevere risk to political, economic, and social stability. In less prosperous regions,where countries lack the resources and capabilities required to adapt quickly to moresevere conditions, the problem is very likely to be exacerbated. For some countries,climate change could become such a challenge that mass emigration results as thedesperate peoples seek better lives in regions such as the United States that have theresources to adaptation.Because the prevailing scenarios of gradual global warming could cause effects likethe ones described above, an increasing number of business leaders, economists,policy makers, and politicians are concerned about the projections for further changeand are working to limit human influences on the climate. But, these efforts may notbe sufficient or be implemented soon enough.Rather than decades or even centuries of gradual warming, recent evidence suggeststhe possibility that a more dire climate scenario may actually be unfolding. This iswhy GBN is working with OSD to develop a plausible scenario for abrupt climatechange that can be used to explore implications for food supply, health and disease,commerce and trade, and their consequences for national security.While future weather patterns and the specific details of abrupt climate changecannot be predicted accurately or with great assurance, the actual history of climatechange provides some useful guides. Our goal is merely to portray a plausiblescenario, similar to one which has already occurred in human experieince, for whichthere is reasonable evidence so that we may further explore potential implications forUnited States national security.Creating the Scenario: Reviewing HistoryAbrupt Climate Change5
The above graphic, derived from sampling of an ice core in Greenland, shows ahistorical tendency for particular regions to experience periods of abrupt coolingwithin periods of general warming.1The Cooling Event 8,200 Years AgoThe climate change scenario outlined in this report is modeled on a century-longclimate event that records from an ice core in Greenland indicate occurred 8,200years ago. Immediately following an extended period of warming, much like thephase we appear to be in today, there was a sudden cooling . Average annualtemperatures in Greenland dropped by roughly 5 degrees Fahrenheit, andtemperature decreases nearly this large are likely to have occurred throughout theNorth Atlantic region. During the 8,200 event severe winters in Europe and someother areas caused glaciers to advance, rivers to freeze, and agricultural lands to beless productive. Scientific evidence suggests that this event was associated with, andperhaps caused by, a collapse of the ocean’s conveyor following a period of gradualwarming.Longer ice core and oceanic records suggest that there may have been as many aseight rapid cooling episodes in the past 730,000 years, and sharp reductions in theocean conveyer--a phenomenon that may well be on the horizon – are a likelysuspect in causing such shifts in climate.The Younger DryasAbout 12,700 years ago, also associated with an apparent collapse of thethermohaline circulation, there was a cooling of at least 27 degrees Fahrenheit inGreenland, and substantial change throughout the North Atlantic region as well, thistime lasting 1,300 years. The remarkable feature of the Younger Dryas event was thatit happened in a series of decadal drops of around 5 degrees, and then the cold, dryweathe
climate change to improve projections of how climate could influence food, water, and energy Create vulnerability metrics to anticipate which countries are most vulnerable to climate change and therefore, could contribute materially to an increasingly disorderly and potentially violent world. Abrupt Climate Change 2
SAP 3.4: Abrupt Climate Change . what we know about the AMOC and the likelihood of future changes in the AMOC in response to increasing greenhouse gases, including the possibility of abrupt change. We have five primary findings: It is very likely that the strength of the AMOC wil
Food Security and Nutrition 1.1.Climate Change and Agriculture Climate change shows in different transformations of climate variables that are causing significant economic, social and environmental effects. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2002, has defined climate change as “any change in climate over time,
Gender and climate change – Women as agents of change. IUCN climate change briefing, December 2007 Gender, Climate Change and Human Security. Lessons from Bangladesh, Ghana and Senegal. Prepared for ELIAMEP for WEDO, May 2008 Gender and Climate Change. Gender in CARE’s Adaptation Learning Programme for Africa. CARE and Climate Change, 2011 –
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