22 September 2021 CLIMATE OUTLOOK
CLIMATE OUTLOOKJANUARY– JUNE 2022Prepared by:PAGASA-DOSTClimatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)Presented by:RUSY ABASTILLASSenior Weather Specialist, CLIMPS/CAD
LA NINA UPDATEClimate Outlook(JANUARY– JUNE 2022)Summary
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific OceanSea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs)In the last four weeks,equatorial SSTs werebelow average acrossmost of the PacificOcean, and were aboveaverage nearIndonesia.
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Oceanas of 20 December 2021:o-1.1 CCooler than normal SST in the central andeast pacific while warmer than normal inthe West PacificDuring the last two months, negativesubsurface temperature anomalies havepersisted across the central and easternPacific Ocean.
until when?13 out of 22 models favored La Nina tocontinue to FMA2022 seasonGlobal Model Forecast Guidance
What are the chances?
ENSO Alert System Status:La Nina AdvisoryLa Niña persists and likely to continue until the Feb-Mar-Apr2022 ( 60% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutralconditions during April-June 2022 season.La Nina increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfallconditions across most areas of the country.ALERTWATCHconditions are favorable fordevelopment within the nextsix months and probability is55% or moreONI { 0.5 C ( El Niño) -0.5 C ( La Niña)is forecasted to persist in thenext 2 months and probabilityis 70% or moreADVISORYEvent is currently on-going,and the ONI threshold isexpected to persist during theforecast period
Weather systems that may affect the countryJANUARY – JUNE 2022THUNDERSTORMSLOW PRESSURE AREAS(LPAs)INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCEZONE (ITCZ)TROPICAL CYCLONESNORTHEASTMONSOONEASTERLIESRIDGE OF HIGHPRESSURE AREAS (HPAs)TAIL-END OF THEFRONTAL SYSTEMSOUTHWESTMONSOONIn transition (up to mid-May)
Tropical Cyclone (TC)-Threat PotentialInitialization: 21 December 2021@8amForecast Summary:Week 1 (December 22 – December 28, 2021)LPALPA1As of today, a low pressure vortex exists near the Philippine Area ofResponsibility (PAR). The low pressure vortex (LPA) will likely enter thePAR and move towards the Philippine landmass. It has a low likelihood ofbecoming a TC. Therefore there is no active TC-threat during the forecastperiod.Week 2 (December 29 – January 4, 2022)The LPA will likely cross the Eastern Mindanao-Visayas area. Thereforethere is no active TC-threat during the forecast period. However, anychanges in the forecast will be closely monitored.LPANote: The information contained herein are based on the 6-hourly forecasts of the NCEPGEFS issued in the past 24hrs where the CWB TC Tracking algorithm was applied. Thisproduct was part of the collaboration between PAGASA and CWB through the MECO/TECOVOTE Project. This is for guidance purposes only.High Likelihood of becoming a TCLow-Likelihood of becoming a TCPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Tropical Cyclone ClimatologicalTracks forDecember in the Philippine Area of Responsibility(PAR)Climatological tracks for the month of December suggest5 most common tracks:1. TCs formed in the western Pacific that entered the PhilippineArea of Responsibility(PAR) but recurve afterwards towards theeastern part of PAR (non-landfalling) then move towards Japan.2. TCs formed in the western Pacific that entered the PhilippineArea of Responsibility(PAR) but recurve before making landfalltowards the north-eastern part of PAR (non-landfalling) thenmove towards Japan.3. Landfalling TCs traversing Northern or Central Luzon; movingtowards Hongkong after exiting the landmass.4.Landfalling TCs traversing southern Luzon – northern Visayasarea, ; moving towards Vietnam.5.Landfalling TCs traversing Southern Visayas – NorthernMindanao area; moving towards Thailand.
Tropical Cyclone Climatological Tracks for Januaryin the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)Climatological tracks for the month of January suggest 3most common tracks (Fewer/Lesser chance of TCformation during this month:1. TCs formed within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)but recurve afterwards towards the eastern part of PAR (nonlandfalling).2. TCs formed within PAR and may make landfall in eastern partof Visayas then recurves towards the northern part of PARbefore dissipating.3. TCs formed n the Western Pacific which may enter PAR andmake landfall in Central Philippines before dissipating.
WEEK - 1: RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY FORECASTDecember 22 – December 28, 2021High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm inmost parts of Northern Luzon, Aurora, Quezon,Bicol region, Eastern and Central Visayas, partsof Western Visayas andmost parts ofMindanao while less likely for the rest of thecounty during the forecast period.Prepared by: CLIMPS-CADHigh probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm inmost parts of CAR, Cagayan, Isabela, parts of Bicolregion, parts of Eastern Visayas and CARAGA whileless likely for the rest of the county during theforecast period.Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm inmost parts of the country during the forecastperiod.Contact us @Tel no:(02)8284-0800 loc. 906 or email:
WEEK - 2: RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY FORECASTDecember 29 – January 4, 2022High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm inApayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Quezon, Bicol region,most of MIMAROPA, and most parts of Visayasand Mindanao while less likely for the rest ofLuzon during the forecast period.Prepared by: CLIMPS-CADHigh probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm inthe eastern sections of Isabela and Cagayan,Bicol region, and some parts of Central andEastern Visayas and CARAGA while less likely forthe rest of the country during the forecastperiod.Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm inmost parts of the country except some parts ofBicol region, Eastern Visayas and CARAGAduring the forecast period.Contact us @Tel no:(02)8284-0800 loc. 906 or email:
PERCENTAGE (%)Less than or 40For more detailsand updatesRAINFALL CONDITIONway below normal41 – 80below normal81 – 120near normalGreater than 120above normalRainfall Surplus or Reduction
JANUARY 2022Normal RainfallForecast RainfallPercent of NormalProbabilistic ForecastNOTE: 1991-2020 climate normalused in the maps was the results ofthe initial calculations. Data will berecalculated once the official normalis released.way below normalbelow normalnear normalabove normal0105419
FEBRUARY 2022Normal RainfallForecast RainfallPercent of NormalProbabilistic ForecastNOTE: 1991-2020 climate normalused in the maps was the results ofthe initial calculations. Data will berecalculated once the official normalis released.way below normalbelow normalnear normalabove normal3113831
MARCH 2022Normal RainfallForecast RainfallPercent of NormalProbabilistic ForecastNOTE: 1991-2020 climate normalused in the maps was the results ofthe initial calculations. Data will berecalculated once the official normalis released.way below normalbelow normalnear normalabove normal344828
APRIL 2022Normal RainfallForecast RainfallPercent of NormalProbabilistic ForecastNOTE: 1991-2020 climate normalused in the maps was the results ofthe initial calculations. Data will berecalculated once the official normalis released.way below normalbelow normalnear normalabove normal233490
May 2022Normal RainfallForecast RainfallPercent of NormalProbabilistic ForecastNOTE: 1991-2020 climate normalused in the maps was the results ofthe initial calculations. Data will berecalculated once the official normalis released.way below normalbelow normalnear normalabove normal00767
JUNE 2022Normal RainfallForecast RainfallPercent of NormalProbabilistic ForecastNOTE: 1991-2020 climate normalused in the maps was the results ofthe initial calculations. Data will berecalculated once the official normalis released.way below normalbelow normalnear normalabove normal00830
FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (January - June 2022) as of Dec 22, 2021PROVINCEJANUARY FEBRUARY MARCHCORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION O84.1MOUNTAIN PROVINCE82.4REGION IILOCOS NORTE56.1ILOCOS SUR57.1LA UNION72.8PANGASINAN57.7REGION IIBATANES105.4CAGAYAN107.8ISABELA101.9NUEVA VIZCAYA90.5QUIRINO99.3REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)BATAAN84.3BULACAN90.8NUEVA 00.4NATIONAL CAPITAL REGIONMETRO MANILA116.7REGION IV-A ON IV-B (MIMAROPA)MARINDUQUEOCCIDENTAL MINDOROORIENTAL MINDOROROMBLONPALAWANSPRATLY ISLANDSREGION V (BICOL)ALBAYCAMARINES NORTECAMARINES SURCATANDUANESMASBATESORSOGONREGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)AKLANANTIQUECAPIZGUIMARASILOILONEGROS OCCIDENTALREGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)NEGROS ORIENTALBOHOLCEBUSIQUIJORREGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)BILIRANEASTERN SAMARLEYTENORTHERN SAMARSAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)SOUTHERN LEYTEJANUARY FEBRUARY JANUARY FEBRUARYREGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE129.6100.7ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR132.4105.7ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY134.8107.1REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)BUKIDNON103.0126.7CAMIGUIN114.9127.5LANAO DEL NORTE112.9117.3MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL118.6103.3MISAMIS ORIENTAL104.0132.0REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)DAVAO DE ORO109.8128.0DAVAO CITY99.2110.6DAVAO DEL NORTE102.4117.8DAVAO DEL SUR102.1118.7DAVAO OCCIDENTAL104.1128.2DAVAO ORIENTAL111.1128.3REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)SOUTH 130.2SULTAN KUDARAT117.7119.3REGION XIII- CARAGAAGUSAN DEL NORTE116.4124.9AGUSAN DEL SUR111.6123.9DINAGAT ISLANDS120.1124.3SURIGAO DEL NORTE119.5121.9SURIGAO DEL 5115.1LANAO DEL 4.196.693.194.596.798.1
JANUARYPROVINCEFEBRUARYMAX MEANMINMARCHMAX MEANMINAPRILMAX MEANMINMAYMAX MEANMINJUNECO RDIL L ERA ADMINIS T RAT IV E REG IO 35.8150.5MAX MEAN218.3174.8MIN201.3MAX 221.4183.5MOUNTAIN 18.758.8193.9259.3221.4164.8318.7237.6ILOCOS .5144.3159.6147.7197.7268.1238.9ILOCOS 1.9285.6211.1263.0382.2312.7LA 226.9285.1486.1401.4REGION IREGION .0218.4147.7223.1176.9NUEVA 05.5254.4280.5270.8193.8241.3209.7REGION .6212.8272.2354.0299.0NUEVA 4.1191.1NATIONAL CAPITAL REGIONMETRO MANILAREGION IV-AREGION .8OCCIDENTAL .941.3182.0203.6192.3250.7397.9303.6ORIENTAL 54.5357.0233.4SPRATLY .5169.8169.7307.0315.5308.4REGION NES NES 7.8163.4176.4169.6189.9215.5202.8
JANUARYPROVINCEFEBRUARYMARCHAPRILMAYJUNEREGION 4.8295.2NEGROS 26.8321.372.8172.6220.0191.6226.8321.3285.0NEGROS 140.0153.8165.2159.8REGION VIIREGION EASTERN 223.892.1137.6192.1173.9186.9223.8215.0NORTHERN 180.1227.6115.8163.0187.1175.6180.1227.6207.1SAMAR (WESTERN HERN NGA DEL .8251.586.8139.2181.0168.3157.8251.5222.3ZAMBOANGA DEL 3256.088.3132.4185.3168.8153.3256.0220.0ZAMBOANGA 78.2110.8136.2142.7139.2169.3178.2173.2LANAO DEL 33.3263.685.8165.9196.8183.6233.3263.6250.2MISAMIS ISAMIS O DE 8.8234.2136.0204.5242.5220.6178.8234.2198.5DAVAO 02.0260.7149.5213.0231.0224.9202.0260.7230.1DAVAO DEL 185.2262.7107.9205.1230.4223.0185.2262.7224.4DAVAO DEL .0219.5155.1153.4222.3188.4154.0219.5189.2DAVAO VAO UTH 71.689.8118.2161.9135.6117.5171.6132.9SULTAN AN DEL N DEL 3.8254.9164.0158.5266.0215.6173.8254.9222.9DINAGAT IGAO DEL AO DEL 8.9224.1194.0154.8272.9210.2168.9224.1201.8REGION IXREGION XREGION XIREGION XIIREGION 3LANAO DEL 55.5179.9260.4211.0
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakesin (mm) and (%N) FOR JAN - JUN 2022
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREASin (mm) and (%N) FOR JANUARY - JUNE UTIMARIKITMATULIDNORZAGARAYPADALISPANTABANGAN 3.099.1100.6108.499.5101.798.9
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINSin (mm) and (%N) FOR JAN - MAR 2022JANUARY 4.541.9298.718.5247.942.7185.0238.316.0MEAN 8.595.918.455.843.972.687.0117.05.160.0MINAgus RB111.6Agusan RB267.2Buayan-Malungon 105.7Cagayan de Oro 113.4Cotabato RB105.1Davao RB145.2Tagoloan River143.9Tagum-Libuganon AN %Normal 24.5323.3104.9163.7CATCHMENTAbra RBAbulug RBAgno RBBicol RBBued RBCagayan RBLaoag RBPampanga RBPasig-Laguna RBSinocalan RUARY 2022LUZONMAX MEAN %Normal21.410.443.157.132.459.537.612.566.5267.6 135.6118.622.113.165.2234.1 63.491.724.39.226.1157.3 35.275.3195.3 64.8111.914.15.953.3MINDANAOMAX MEAN %Normal126.4 109.7131.4591.8 353.6124.6120.0 98.8129.3128.0 115.7132.2232.5 121.8119.4217.1 159.1113.3193.9 157.1132.9394.0 258.8120.9MARCH .8115.2
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINSin (mm) and (%N) FOR APR – JUN 2022APRIL 2022CATCHMENTAbra RBAbulug RBAgno RBBicol RBBued RBCagayan RBLaoag RBPampanga RBPasig-Laguna RBSinocalan RBCATCHMENTAgus RBAgusan RBBuayan-MalungonCagayan de OroCotabato RBDavao RBTagoloan 971.2MEAN %Normal 154.280.3101.3 EAN %Normal MIN57.669.8153.1150.298.7147.889.7101.0 81.9164.8106.286.3212.8MAY 2022LUZONMAX MEAN %Normal MIN275.3 188.590.9203.6160.0 144.091.8138.8315.6 230.992.1288.5174.5 161.098.9162.3310.8 256.693.8353.8291.0 217.7101.4135.0155.4 148.387.1204.1271.5 212.997.6230.4228.9 176.6101.1184.9248.8 222.890.8340.6MINDANAOMAX MEAN %Normal MIN199.8 170.2110.9211.6252.3 210.8109.3177.9172.4 145.8105.1126.3214.7 191.3108.1226.4226.8 204.1104.6134.9226.8 225.8102.8202.6219.4 193.8108.2224.8235.6 225.0106.7199.2JUNE 2022MAX MEAN %Normal348.6 264.2100.4217.5 180.598.1446.5 361.9107.0203.1 180.896.7414.3 387.5110.1340.5 197.5102.3260.0 236.598.6429.7 290.4101.5338.6 254.599.7422.7 376.3111.5MAX MEAN %Normal271.7 238.496.0255.8 218.094.2168.3 145.791.9276.3 257.694.5286.1 244.592.3262.8 243.190.9268.5 244.795.8250.9 221.592.1
NORMAL (1981 - 2010)PROVINCEJANFEBCORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION AIN PROVINCE29REGION IILOCOS NORTE29ILOCOS SUR30LA UNION30PANGASINAN30REGION IIBATANES17CAGAYAN23ISABELA23NUEVA VIZCAYA27QUIRINO22REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)BATAAN30BULACAN26NUEVA L CAPITAL REGIONMETRO MANILA28REGION IV-A N15REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)MARINDUQUE17OCCIDENTAL MINDORO25ORIENTAL MINDORO22ROMBLON22PALAWAN28REGION V (BICOL)ALBAY15CAMARINES NORTE12CAMARINES 0
NORMAL (1981 - 2010)PROVINCEJANREGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)AKLANANTIQUECAPIZGUIMARASILOILONEGROS OCCIDENTALREGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)NEGROS ORIENTALBOHOLCEBUSIQUIJORREGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)BILIRANEASTERN SAMARLEYTENORTHERN SAMARSAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)SOUTHERN LEYTEREGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTEZAMBOANGA DEL SURZAMBOANGA SIBUGAYREGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)BUKIDNONCAMIGUINLANAO DEL NORTEMISAMIS OCCIDENTALMISAMIS ORIENTALREGION XI (DAVAO REGION)COMPOSTELA VALLEYDAVAO CITYDAVAO DEL NORTEDAVAO DEL SURDAVAO OCCIDENTALDAVAO ORIENTALREGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)SOUTH COTABATOCOTABATOSARANGANISULTAN KUDARATREGION XIII- CARAGAAGUSAN DEL NORTEAGUSAN DEL SURDINAGAT ISLANDSSURIGAO DEL NORTESURIGAO DEL SURARMMBASILANMAGUINDANAOLANAO DEL -2-2-3-1-1-2-2-1-2-3100100-2-2101-1-211
MONTHLY MEANTEMPERATURE FORECAST(JANUARY - JUNE tlycooler tonearaverageNear ercoolercoolerwarmeraverageFor more detailsand armer
FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATUREUpdated : 22 December 2021TMAX ngeNorthern 8.5Lowlands 8.0Mountainous 8.0Metro 37.2Lowlands 538.4Lowlands .538.4Mountainous .534.2TMIN SummaryJan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Tmin
Oct 20, 2021 · Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast way below normal below normal near normal above normal 0 0 32 51 NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal used in the maps was the results of the initial calculations. Data will be recalculated once the official normal is
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