Introduction 1 - Klein ISD

Leander I.S.D. – 22.5% Plano I.S.D. – 24.5% Clear Creek I.S.D. – 25.3% Lewisville I.S.D. – 26.6% McKinney I.S.D. – 28.3% Round Rock I.S.D. – 29.8% Katy I.S.D. – 30.1% Humble I.S.D. – 34.0 Fort Bend I.S.D. – 35.7% Conroe I.S.D. – 36.6% Mansfield I.S.D. – 37.0% Klein I.S.D. – 39.3% Denton I.S.D. – 41.5% Some of these districts are basically built out. If they do not have a large proportion of their housing units as multi family units, then the percent of disadvantaged students will likely remain low. Often, as districts mature, the number of apartments begins to increase. Were this to happen, then the percent of disadvantaged students will likely increase substantially, especially for mature districts such as Plano and Clear Creek. Understanding the dynamics of growth patterns of districts with varying proportions of economically disadvantaged students is critical to estimating future growth for a school district. Particularly in suburban districts, the percent of free and reduced lunch students is highly correlated with the median household income and median housing values, as well as median years of education of those 25 and older. As noted above, if a school district newly gains a large percent of apartment dwellers, or gains other lower priced housing such that there is an infusion of disadvantaged students, then the demand for single family housing in the district is typically less, and, thus, the demand for the district’s schools tends to be significantly lower. Several suburban districts ultimately did have a renewed demand for housing (due to the inability to get home loans). And, these districts have had this uptick in demand because of an ever increasing number of apartments. Such districts (and their current percent of disadvantaged students are: Spring Branch I.S.D. (57%), Richardson I.S.D. (56.7%), Aldine I.S.D. (84.3%), Alief I.S.D. (78.6%), and Spring I.S.D. (71.5%). PASA has worked with each of these districts, and evaluated student trends in each district over a long time frame. A key finding about these and similar districts is that the recently renewed wave of student growth is dependent on the high proportion of apartments available – which also has led to a sizeable increase in the proportion of disadvantaged students. So, the proportion of apartments in a school district can have a strong demographic impact. Another quality of life indicator commonly being used is performance on the State mandated TAKS test. While most Districts focus on small subsets of the population and scores on specific tests, a more global analysis provides a good comparison of overall performance between districts. Therefore, PASA summarizes the percentage of students in all grades who passed all subjects of the TAKS test administered in Spring, 2011. Statewide, about 76% of all students in Texas public schools Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011Klein I.S.D. - Page 8

passed all subjects of the TAKS test. Comparatively, Klein I.S.D. has an overall passage rate of 81% the 17th highest of any district larger than 20,000. Thus, analysis of the economically disadvantaged population and TAKS performance illustrates empirically the positive perception of Klein ISD and points to the competitive advantage this district holds over other neighboring in attracting new residents. Other socioeconomic characteristics are summarized for the District in the next chart, based on the 2009 ACS data. The resident population of Klein I.S.D. is just slightly older in age in 2010 (median age of 33.3 years) compared to the State of Texas (median age of 33.1 years), and more oriented to families with children (24% of the population is school aged, compared to 19% of the population in the State of Texas). Not only is the population slightly older, but, not surprisingly, more educated (32% has a Bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 26 in the State of Texas), and the median household income is about 76,785, compared to 48,259 in the State of Texas. Also, the good news for Klein I.S.D. workers is that commuting time to work one way have been slightly reduced – they had averaged 33 minutes each way in 2008, and now are averaging 31 minutes. Slightly quicker commuting times, rather than longer, retains residents who value every minute when going to and from work. But, the Houston Sugar Land Baytown average one way commute time is 27.7 minutes, as of 2010, placing Klein as facing traffic challenges relative to many other competitive sectors of the metro area. Historical Ethnic Trends and Implications for Future Growth The ethnic trends maps in this section show the changes in the proportion of each ethnicity over the past five years – using last year’s official PEIMS data. The proportion of the student population that is African American has increased slightly over the past 5 years, from 15.4% to 13.9%. The proportion of Hispanic students has increased from 27% in 2005 06 to 15% in the 2010 11. The proportion of the Asian population has increased negligibly (from 8.1% to 8.3% of the student population), and the proportion of non minority population has declined substantially, from 49.1% to 38.7% in a five year time frame. Employment Trends and Housing Demand Impacts Employment by Sector and Socioeconomic Characteristics of the District Census data for 2010 provides the latest socioeconomic data about residents of Klein I.S.D. This Census data is gradually being released and is very helpful for some characteristics, while other data is still unavailable. The employment data is not yet available from the 2010 Census. So, the American Community Survey data for 2009 is used for employment trend analyses. Not surprisingly, the largest employment sectors represented in the District are the Educational services, health care Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011Klein I.S.D. - Page 9

and social assistance sectors (20% of the population), and the Professional, scientific, and management sectors (11%). Employment Trends over the Next Five Years The Houston region has continued to be a magnet for new employees, even in the downturn, due to good jobs and a “better than elsewhere” economy. However, some expert opinion emphases that the U.S. economy is stuck in a growth rut a rut that could very easily be equivalent to Japan’s failed decade. Houston job growth has been touted as the best in the State (from August, 2010 to August, 2011. Not surprisingly, the oil and gas industry is the leading cause of this job growth. But, as noted in Chapter 2, it is important to keep in mind the impacts of unemployment in keeping the growth rates for Klein I.S.D. fairly slow. The latest figures indicate no change in unemployment (which was 8.6% in both August, 2011 and in August, 2010). But, from July, 2011 when unemployment was 8.9%, there has been a slight downturn in unemployment levels. Some economists warn that jobs lost in the recession may never return to the lowest unemployment levels – with a new normal of higher joblessness and lower standards of living for also, many. The rationale is that (1) construction and manufacturing may never return to previous levels; and, also, (2) many small and midsize business may struggle a long time to obtain bank loans to expand. Finally, (3) upper socioeconomic households are spending less because of losses on their homes, to retirement plans and other investments, and (4) lower income households are cutting back because they cannot borrow like they once did. Also, the Houston area has had the second largest increase in population than any other metro area. This being emphasized, however, the lack of easily obtainable mortgages and the national debt could stall Houston area employment growth. Tied to this is the growing divide between the rich and the poor, with a higher proportion falling out of the middle class and into lower socioeconomic levels. Effects of Job Recovery and Employment Trends As noted above, economists are warning that certain jobs lost in the recession may never return, and that Harris County, for example, may never return to their lowest unemployment levels. For July, 2011, non seasonally adjusted unemployment is at 8.6% in Harris County, relative to the State’s non seasonally adjusted 8.7% unemployment. This extended higher unemployment rate means long term joblessness and lower standards of living for many. As noted above, the rationale is that construction and manufacturing jobs may never return to previous levels, and, also, small and midsize businesses may struggle a long time to obtain bank loans and thus not be able to expand. Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011Klein I.S.D. - Page 10

Moody’s Analytics forecasts that Texas’ metro areas will lead the recovery and also indicate that Texas’ large metro areas already have made up for employment lost this past decade. Yet, in Texas, jobless rates are at a 27 year high – despite the 10th straight month of employment gains (through July). And, Houston and Harris County have both increased employment by 1.64%. So, the Houston area continues to feel the effects of a stagnant national economy, but is having local employment growth. In past economic downturn, housing has led the recovery – over and above all other economic sectors. But, in 2011, housing construction and the housing sector generally continue to lag other employment sectors – and this lag could continued until 2013 or 2015, or beyond. Even in the long term, without heavier immigration and without readily available mortgages, then the construction employment cannot return to its previously high proportion of the work force. This situation could keep the Harris County job growth staggering over the short term, as construction related employment was the most significant sector of job growth prior to the recession. The Harris County employment growth was 1.64% for this past year (through August) compared to 0.65% for the past year – a slight uptick. The City of Houston shows lower increases this past year – at 0.23% this year through August, 2011 relative to 0.96% for the previous year’s growth. Two encouraging, perhaps short term trends are that (1) construction hiring in Houston has shown a slight upswing, even while homebuilding is still low – relative to 2006 or 2007 levels; and (2) Houston was first in job growth in the nation from August, 2010 through August, 2011 – adding 65,600 nonfarm jobs. One disconcerting aspect of new job growth is that Texas as a whole actually lost white collar jobs between 2000 and 2010. So, although 37% of all jobs created in the nation have been in Texas (since the end of the recession – i.e., between June, 2009 and April, 2011), these new jobs have been primarily blue collar jobs – due partially to the oil/gas related job growth in the Houston and south Texas regions. In fact, the Texas A&M Real Estate Center’s latest Report (through July, 2011) indicates that there has been a Statewide increase of 19% in oil/gas related jobs, with the next highest increase in construction employment (5%) – over the past year. Finally, one exciting possibility for job growth within Klein I.S.D. lies with the possible growth of Hewlett Packard employment if the personal computer division branches off and re groups in or near the old Compaq location. The largest number of Hewlitt Packard workers worldwide are now grouped in Houston already, so the old location S. off Louetta is again receiving notice – and there could be a rebirth of the old Compaq milieu under a new name. Students Projected at Build Out Approach One: The density map in the second chapter indicates that there are 740 students per square mile in the built out area (which is 52.4 square miles). It is likely that this will become about 855 students per square mile in that a part of this built out area has very low density, such as one home on four acres. So, approximately 44,802 students may ultimately reside in these 52.4 square miles. Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011Klein I.S.D. - Page 11

Then, of the remaining parcels two thirds of the undeveloped tracts will become residential, or 28.1 times 0.67 equals 18.83 square miles times 855, or 16,097 students. Thus, summing 16,097 and 44,802 equals 60,899 or about 61,000 students at build out. Students Projected at Build Out) Approach Two: Another way of looking at these build out projections is by appending the total students this Fall to students projected via the estimated number of added housing units expected of the future, plus expected student gains and losses per current subdivision and apartment. At the PEIMS snapshot data at the end of October, there should be about 46,139 students in K.I.S.D. schools. Using a ratio of 0.68 for SF and 0.40 for MF, then there will be approximately 5,651 added students in new single family homes and 387 more students in new apartments for the Klein School District over the next ten years. And, there will also be added students due to increasing densities of existing housing units, including existing apartments – of approximately 3,459 added students. Adding the four subsets of students above suggests 55,636 students by the Fall, 2021. Then, by using these same ratios of students per single family home and per apartment, and including the projected new housing expected after 2021 until build out, there should be approximately 65,914 total projected Klein I.S.D. students at build out. Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011Klein I.S.D. - Page 12

Klein I.S.D.Square Miles6DQ -DFLQWR &RXQW\0RQWJRPHU \ ,6'6SOHQGRUD ,6' *ULPHV &RXQW\0RQWJRPHU\ &RXQW\0DJQROLD ,6'&RQURH ,6' :DOOHU &RXQW\1HZ &DQH\ ,6' 7RPEDOO ,6' 6SULQJ ,6'.OHLQ ,6' :DOOHU ,6' OGLQH ,6' &\SUHVV )DLUEDQNV ,6' XPEOH ,6' 6KHOGRQ ,6' DUULV &RXQW\1RUWK )RUHVW ,6' 6SULQJ %UDQFK ,6' RXVWRQ ,6' .DW\ ,6' )RUW %HQG &RXQW\*Source: Texas Education Agency*DOHQD 3DUN ,6'Highways OLHI ,6' Population and Survey Analysts - October, 20110 0.5 123456MilesnCounties3DVDGHQD ,6'Water BodiesKlein I.S.D. - Page 13

To t a l E n r o l l m en t i n S c h o o l D i s t r i c t RXVWRQEDVHG RQ SUH 3(,06 HVWLPDWHV LQ 6HSWHPEHU Willis ISD6,471Montgomery ISD6,958Navasota ISD2,981Cleveland ISD3,7410RQWJRPHU\Tarkington ISD1,898Splendora ISD3,496Conroe ISD52,400Magnolia ISD12,033New Caney ISDTomball ISDKlein ISD46,177Waller ISD5,618Huffman ISD3,280Spring ISD36,676Dayton ISD4,964Humble ISD35,822Aldine ISD64,129Cypress-Fairbanks ISD107,995Hempstead ISDGoose Creek CISD21,552Channelview ISD8,749Spring Branch ISD33,651Katy ISD61,727Barbers Hill ISDSheldon ISD7,149North Forest ISD DUULVRoyal ISD2,051Crosby ISD5,069Galena Park ISD21,931Deer Park ISD12,809Houston ISD202,591Alief ISD45,582La Porte ISDPasadena ISD52,933Stafford MSDBrazos ISD848Fort Bend ISD69,198Lamar CISD25,270)RUW%HQGPearland ISD19,210Clear Creek ISD37,472Friendswood ISD5,892Dickinson ISD9,335Alvin ISD18,219Water BodiesCountiesTotal EnrollmentNeedville ISD0 - 1,5001,501 - 3,0003,001 - 5,0005,001 - 15,00015,001 - 30,00030,001ISD- 202,591Boling:͘2,661Angleton ISDDamon ISD Columbia-Brazoria ISD͙͚͛͞ Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011La Marque ISD*DOYHVWRQ2,913Santa Fe ISDTexasCityISD4,6045,964Hitchcock ISDDanbury ISD Ƭ Klein I.S.D. - Page 14

Absolute Change in School District Enrollment HDU &KDQJH WR RXVWRQEDVHG RQ SUH 3(,06 HVWLPDWHV LQ 6HSWHPEHU Willis ISD29Montgomery sbyISD-50NorthForestISD DUULVHoustonISD-1654Alief ISD-186PasadenaISD715StaffordMSDLamar CISD633)RUW%HQGFort BendISD250PearlandISD441AlvinISD852Water BodiesCountiesAbsolute changeNeedville ISD -250-249 - 01 - 250251 - 500501 - 1,000 aISDDamon ISD͙͚ Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011SheldonISD298BarbersHill ISDChannelviewISDGalena102Park ISD251Deer ParkISD216SpringBranch 2Spring ISD353TarkingtonISD-11GooseCreek CISD269La PorteISDClearCreek ISD-934FriendswoodISD-78Dickinson ISD217TexasCity ISD*DOYHVWRQ 42SantaLa MarqueFe ISDISD93-62HitchcockISDDanburyISD Ƭ Klein I.S.D. - Page 15

Absolute Change in School District Enrollment HDU &KDQJH WR RXVWRQEDVHG RQ SUH 3(,06 HVWLPDWHV LQ 6HSWHPEHU Willis omballISDKleinISD4565WallerISD547Spring ss-Fairbanks ISD15860HempsteadISDRoyalISD144 DUULVNorthForestISD656HoustonISD-345Alief ISD-114LamarCISD4453Fort lvinISD3965Water BodiesCountiesAbsolute ChangeNeedville -250-249 - 01 - 1,000Boling1,001 - 1,500ISD1,501 - 3,000 3,000:͘ISD41͛͞AngletonISDColumbia-BrazoriaDamon ISDISD͙͚ Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011GooseCreek CISD1259Deer ParkISD388StaffordMSDBrazosISD19BarbersHill ISDSheldon ISD1480ChannelviewISDGalena439Park ISDSpringBranch ISD1491Katy ISD10526DaytonISD-3HuffmanISD209La PorteISDClearCreek ISD1944FriendswoodISD60Dickinson ISD1547TexasCity ISD*DOYHVWRQ 125Santa FeLa MarqueISDISD32-816HitchcockISDDanbury ISD Ƭ Klein I.S.D. - Page 16

Percent Change in School District Enrollment HDU &KDQJH WR RXVWRQEDVHG RQ SUH 3(,06 HVWLPDWHV LQ 6HSWHPEHU Anderson-ShiroCISDWillis ISD0.5%Montgomery rbanksISD1.8%RoyalISD0.3% UW%HQGFort .9%Water BodiesCountiesPercent ChangeNeedvilleISD2.5% -2%-1.9% - 0%0.1% - 1%Boling1.1% - 2%ISD2.1% - 3% 3%:͘AngletonISDDamon ISD͛͞Columbia-BrazoriaISD͙͚ Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011GooseCreek CISD1.3%Deer ParkISD1.7%StaffordMSDBrazosISD3%BarbersHill ISDSheldon ISD4.3%ChannelviewISDGalena1.2%Park ISDHoustonISD-0.8%Alief ISD-0.4%DaytonISD0.8%HumbleISD-0.3%SpringBranch ISD2.1%KatyISD1.5%HuffmanISD3.5%Spring ISD1%AldineISD1.5%HempsteadISDTarkingtonISD-0.6%La PorteISDClearCreek ISD-2.4%FriendswoodISD-1.3%Dickinson ISD2.4%TexasCity ISD*DOYHVWRQ 0.7%SantaLa MarqueFe ISDISD2.1%-2.1%HitchcockISDDanbury ISD Ƭ Klein I.S.D. - Page 17

Percent Change in School District Enrollment HDU &KDQJH WR RXVWRQEDVHG RQ SUH 3(,06 HVWLPDWHV LQ 6HSWHPEHU Montgomery ISD21%NavasotaISD0.4%Willis DWallerISD10.8%KleinISD11%Spring ISD13.7%AldineISD9%Cypress-Fairbanks ISD17.2%RoyalISD7.6% HoustonISD-0.2%Alief ISD-0.2%PasadenaISD6.2%Fort BendISD3.3%Lamar CISD21.4%)RUW%HQGPearlandISD18.3%NeedvillePercent Change ISD -2%-1.9% - 0%0.1% - 3%3.1% - 7.5%Boling7.6% - 15% 15%ISD1.6%AngletonISDColumbia-BrazoriaISDDamon ISD͙͚͛͞ Population and Survey Analysts - October, 2011La PorteISDClearCreek ISD5.5%FriendswoodISD1%AlvinISD27.8%Water BodiesCountiesDistricts Called selectionGooseCreek CISD6.2%Deer ParkISD3.1%StaffordMSDBrazosISD2.3%B

ISD 112 Royal ISD 7 Friendswood ISD-78 Sheldon ISD 298 Channelview ISD 102 North Forest ISD Clear Creek ISD-934 Montgomery ISD 58 Waller ISD 167 Magnolia ISD 138 Hitchcock ISD Fort Bend ISD 250 Columbia-Brazoria ISD La Marque ISD-62 Alvin ISD 852 Angleton ISD Needville ISD 65 Lamar CISD 633 Navasota ISD 44 Di