Denton ISD Economic And Housing Analysis 3Q12

Denton ISDEconomic andHousing Analysis3Q12

Economic Conditions Texas gained 262,700 jobs between August 2011 and August 2012. Continuing tolead the nation in job growth. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 69consecutive monthsmonths. (Susan(SCCombs,b TTexas CComptroller)ll )thDFW MSA 5 in the nation with 60,200 new jobs added July 2011 ‐ July 2012 (BLS)Unemployment rates ‐ Texas Labor Market Review (October)‐ U.S. 7.6%‐ Texas 6.3%6 3%‐ DFW 6.3%‐ Denton County 5.6%, down from 6.9% in Sept. 2011DFW annual new home starts up 22% from 2Q11.(Metrostudy)(M t t d )New housing market in position for sustained growth with inventories in balanceand raising rental rates.Texas sales tax receipts for October 2012 were 8.2 percent higher than for October2011 (Susan2011.(SCCombs,b TTexas Comptroller)Ct ll )Sales tax collections have increased for 30 consecutive months (year‐over‐year),boosted by strong business spending in the oil/natural gas and manufacturingsectors, and to a lesser extent by retail sales activity. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)Oil and natural gas production tax collections in the first 11 months of fiscal 2012were 44 percent higher than during the same period in 2011. (Susan Combs, Texas Comptroller)

Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Changein Emp.p – Augustg 2012Rank MSA1234567891011121311415New York-Northern New Jersey-Long IslaL ALosAngeles-Longl LBeach-SantaBh S t AnaACAHouston-Baytown-Sugar Land TXDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TXSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CAS ttl TSeattle-Tacoma-BellevueB llWAPhoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZChicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WIWashington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VADDenver-AuroraACOSan Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CASan Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CAAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GADetroit-Warren-Livoniaiii MICincinnati-Middletown OH-KY-INSource: Metrostudy - MetroUSATotalEmploymentJobGains%Change8,514,4005 188 9005,188,9002,682,9002,985,4001,941,9001 716 6001,716,6001,745,6004,354,0003,023,9001 253 4001,253,4001,253,300903,8002,339,0001 802 2001,802,2001,022,400117,900103 000103,00089,50061,10059,40048 00048,00047,20038,80038,20033 80033,80030,30029,60029,400227,4000027,4001.4%2 0%2.0%3.5%2.1%3.2%2 9%2.9%2.8%0.9%1.3%2 8%2.8%2.5%3.4%1.3%1 %1.5%2.8%

Top 15 MSAs – Ranked by Ann. SF Permits onAugust 2012Rank MSA123456789101112131415Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TXDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TXPhoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZWashington-Arlington-Alexandria DCAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GAAustin Round Rock-SanAustin-RoundRock San Marcos,Marcos TXSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WANew York-Northern New Jersey-LongOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FLCharlotte-Gastonia-RockCharlotteGastonia Rock HillHill, NCNC-SCSCRaleigh-Cary NCLas Vegas-Paradise NVTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Camden-Wilmington PA-NJSource: Metrostudy - 7 4427,4427,1336,4466,1255 ,4991,9751 6341,6341,1803342,0721 9381,9381,3301,6389211,094,287

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketSFD‐THSFDTH – Starts and Closings60,000Annual StartsAnnual ClosingsAnnual SStarts & Closings50,00040,000,30,00020,00016,26015 03Q113Q125

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketSFD‐THSFDTH – Top Ten Submarkets by Closings1,800Annuual Starts & CClosings1 6001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-Annual StartsAnnual Closings

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New Home Ranking Report 3Q12Rank1234567891011121314151617181920SCHOOL DISTRICTFRISCO ISDNORTHWEST ISDKELLER ISDDENTON ISDDALLAS INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTLEWISVILLE ISDPROSPER ISDMANSFIELD ISDEAGLE MT-SAGINAW ISDMCKINNEY ISDALLEN ISDLITTLE ELM ISDROCKWALL ISDCROWLEY ISDWYLIE ISD (48085)BURLESON ISDFORT WORTH ISDCARROLLTON-FARMERS BRANCH ISDFORNEY ISDPLANO ISDVACANTANNUAL ANNUAL DEVELOPEDCLOSINGS 88529072,3648096772,3896786641,753633749491 4895151 12661 11322,7342,76713,9757,9091,65314 014,7076,04220,2672,6181,6185 9065,9067,7088,2221,1883,8744 6634,66352411,4211,663

Denton ISD New Housing 964779726ClosingsTotal Largest 3Q start rate since 2008. DISD should close well over 800 homes at year end.639

Annual ClosingDistribution,, 3Q12QTop 10 Subdivisons ‐ 3Q12 (Ranked by Annual Closings)Annual singsClosings1Paloma Creek South (DISD)17642185492Providence (Denton Co)923876193Robson Ranch691871144Savannah (Denton County)763163225Cross Oak Ranch712957176Preserve at Pecan Creek46555107Lantana/Bandera3983588Paloma Creek512431149Lantana/Isabel Addition241127410 Glenbrooke Estates 2,2501,9341,1932791,00914139815,611

Vacant Developed Lots,3Q12QTop 10 Subdivisons ‐ 3Q12 (Ranked by remaining Vacant Developed Lots)Rank12345678910SubdivisionRobson RanchSavannah (Denton County)Paloma Creek South (DISD)Cross Oak RanchProvidence ((Denton Co))Country Lakes North (DISD)Villages at CrossroadsEmerald SoundTuscan HillsVillas at Maple LeafTOTALSModels1288130001033F/V813159134000062U/C 963621049614,766

Future Lots,3Q12QTop 10 Subdivisons ‐ 3Q12 (Ranked by Future Inventory)Cole RanchHunter RanchRankkR12345678910S bdi i iSubdivisionRobson RanchLakeview RanchSpiritas Ranch WestPaloma Creek South (DISD)Country Lakes North (DISD)Cross Oak RanchSavannah (Denton County)King's Ridge EstatesSpiritas Ranch EastClear Creek RanchTOTALSModelsMd l1200801800029F/V80015491300049U/C 171,9342 2502,25065360844116,314

Overall Housing Data by ElementaryAtt dZAttendanceZoneElementaryBLANTON EL TotalBORMAN EL TotalCROSS OAKS EL TotalEP RAYZOR EL TotalEVERS PARK EL TotalGINNINGS EL TotalHAWK EL TotalHODGE EL TotalHOUSTON EL TotalLEE EL TotalMCNAIR EL TotalNELSON EL TotalNEWTON RAYZOR EL TotalPALOMA CREEK EL TotalPECAN CREEK EL TotalPROVIDENCE EL TotalRIVERA EL TotalRYAN EL TotalSAVANNAH EL TotalSTEPHENS EL TotalWILSON EL TTotalt lGrand TotalAnnual Quarter Annual QuarterFinished UnderVacant Dev.StartsStarts Closings Closings Occupied ModelsVacant Const. 52160131,67271122402298623628898201891121 l1,7303,9303,1592,0272 ,6552,9605803,239980 2,76907174563913,975 43,353

Enrollment HistoryDENTON INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT - GRADE LEVEL ENROLLMENTYear /PRE 3.8%*Yellow box largest grade per year*Green box second largest grade per 0.970.970.960.960.940.960.960.951.000.940.972011 KG ‐ 3rd 8,4042011 9th ‐ 12th 6,631Difference 1,773Gap between elementary grades and secondarygrades is large but closing.

2013/14 Enrollment ProjectionDENTON INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT - GRADE LEVEL ENROLLMENTYear 0021,0021,0021 0021,0021,0021,002Roll‐upPrev Cohort3‐Year 152,2652,3232,4002,4942,5632 02,1652,1802,2362,2792,3342,4172,5042,5952 82,0542,2042,2222,2782,3382,4172,4852,5782 92,0642,0842,2412,2602,3272,3982,4782,5542 92,1102,0842,0992,2742,2872,3822,4542,5282 02,0602,1582,1162,1362,3162,3392,4422,5072 62,2482,2502,4532,5062,5842 81,8871,9632,1042,3242,2902,2952,4972,5612 61,7671,8992,0192,1732,3762,3362,3512,5502 91,8221,9062,1122,2092,3882,6042,5592,5802 761,7721,7261,8082,0212,0992,2712,4782,4332 721,6091,6861,6171,6991,8911,9632,1302,3232 871,4281,5531,6091,5461,6281,8121,8752,0362 ,39434 8319368861,0091,0281,1351,2401,1661,1391 .7%4.0%4.2%3.8%3.5%3 3%3.3%2.9%3.6%26,48426,61326,593693822802

Denton ISD Overview Overall economic outlook remains positive which will lead tocontinued population growth across Texas and the DFW region. DISD will end the year with the highest start rate since 2008. New housing market positioned for growth in 2013 as builderconfidence appears to be high.high District in position for enrollment growth of 886 (3.4%) growthby fall 2013. District enrollment will be pushing 30,000 by the fall of 2016. DISD can expect all grade levels to exceed 2,000 students by 2020 DISD can expectt an iincrease off over 1010,000000 studentst d t dduringi ththenext 10 years. 2022/23 enrollment projection 36,769

8 mansfield isd 612 606 1,183 6,042 9 eagle mt-saginaw isd 574 615 2,158 20,267 10 mckinney isd 546 567 1,383 2,618 11 allen isd 513 545 863 1,618 12 little elm isdlittle elm isd 489 515 11931,193 5 9065,906 13 rockwall isd 342 405 1,897 7,708 14 crowley isd 325 349 2,203 8,222 15 wylie isd (48085) 297 294 4