An Analysis Of Growth Dynamics In Chennai Metropolitan Area
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57An Analysis of Growth Dynamics in ChennaiMetropolitan AreaProf. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. KanchanamalaAbstractChennai Metropolitan Area is experiencing a differential growth among the villages. Thedynamics in the growth trends are attributable to various influencing factors. This paperattempts to study the growth dynamics of CMA to find out the factors influencing the same.Policies and directives for future development and their impact on the growth trend of CMAis also examined.1.INTRODUCTIONChennai city, the fourth largest metropolitan city of the country, finds 157thrank in the list of urban areas categorized by developed land area i.e. urban footprint. As per the study titled ‘Demography - World Urban Areas and PopulationProjections’(2009) Chennai (comprising the Chennai City Corporation and theimmediate developed areas) occupies 157th position in the world on the basisof developed land area with a population of 64.25 lakhs during 2001, and anarea of over 609 sq km with a population density of 10,550 persons per sq km.On the same basis, Delhi ranks 51st with an area of 1,483 sq km, Kolkata ranks82nd with 984 sq km, Hyderabad ranks 112nd with 790 sq km, Mumbai ranks115th with 777 sq km, and Bangalore ranks 148th with 648 sq km. On the basisof population density, Chennai is placed at 139th rank. However, based on theestimated population for the year 2009, Chennai finds 37th place in the list oflargest urban areas in the world (Table 1). Table 1 shows the position of themajor Indian urban areas in the list of largest urban areas in the world basedon estimated population for the year 2009. As per this estimate, Mumbai urbanarea is placed at the 4th position followed by Delhi (6th), Kolkata (12th) andChennai urban area at 37th position. Chennai urban area is expected to attain apopulation of 100.70 lakh in the year 2025.Urban growth is the spatial pattern of land development and the process ofattaining a form influenced by various factors. Urban development is conceivedbroadly and simply as change in the city – whether it is the expansion ofpopulation and land area, shifts in land-use patterns or transportation systemsof the city, changes in the pattern of industrial or commercial development, orS. Kanchanamala, is a Assistant Planner in Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority,Research Scholar, Department of Planning, School of Architecture and Planning, AnnaUniversity, Chennai. Email: skmradha@gmail.comProf. Dr. S.P. Sekar, is Professor and Head of Department of Planning, School of Architectureand Planning, Anna University, Chennai. Email:sekar@annauniv.edu.Prof. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala31
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57Table 1: List of Largest Urban Areas in the World Based on Estimated PopulationDuring 2009Sl. No. RankUrban AreaBase YearPopulation in EstimateBase YearPopulation200911stTokyo, Japan200534,250,00034,670,00022ndJakarta, Indonesia200520,600,00023,345,00033rdNew York, USA200019,712,00021,295,00044thMumbai, India200117,000,00020,400,00056thDelhi, 7,00015,250,000737thChennai, India20016,425,0007,400,000Source: Demographia - World Urban Areas and Population Projections, 5th ComprehensiveEdition, April 2009 Revision (http://www.demographia.com/db-worldua2015.pdf, dated20.02.2010).alterations in the community’s social, political, and economic institutions (Stuart,1962). Urban land use expansion is driven by population growth, and social andeconomic development (Shenghe and Sylvia 2002). Table 1 throws light on thelikely position of Chennai Urban Area with respect to population projection forthe year 2009. These positions indicate the importance of urgent and immediateattention to planning and coordination for the future urban development, bothon spatial and temporal basis. The following questions need to be answered forachieving effective and efficient planning processes for any given spatial entity. What is the population growth trend and spatial development experiencedin the recent past? What are the influencing factors for the growth trend? What is the extent or degree of influence of each of the factors over thegrowth trend? What are the reasons behind non-contiguous development? What are the policy implications on the growth dynamics? What could be the future scenario if the factors continue to be the sameor changes introduced among them? What are the suitable state of the art urban planning tools for simulatingurban growth scenarios by answering ‘what if’ situations, close to reality? Whether any tool is to be applied to monitor the development processesand identify the factors to be intervened to guide the development asper the plan?This paper attempts to study the growth dynamics of CMA to find out the factorsinfluencing the same. Policies and directives for future development and theirimpact on the growth trend of CMAis also examined.Prof. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala32
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 572.POPULATION GROWTH OF CHENNAI METROPOLITAN AREAThe status of Chennai urban area in the context of world urban growth is apromising gesture for vibrant development not only within the city area andthe area immediately after the Chennai city, but also within the entireChennai Metropolitan Area. The area covered by Chennai City Corporation, 16Municipalities, 20 Town Panchayats, and 10 Panchayat Unions containing 214villages constitute the CMA (Fig. 1). The transportation networks, both road andrail, resemble a radial pattern originating from the core area of the city. Inaddition to the radial pattern of roads, circular corridors like Inner Ring Road(IRR) serve as interconnections of radial routes.Fig. 1: Administrative Units and Transportation Networks in Chennai Metropolitan AreaProf. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala33
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57Table 2: Growth of Population and Population Density in Tamil Nadu, Chennai City, Chennai UrbanAgglomeration and CMA during 1961-2001Sl. 9130050130050130050259317372430480 22.30 %17.50 %15.39 %11.72 83128.83176.00176.00176.00Tamil NaduPopulationExtent (sq. km.)Density (persons per sq.km.)Decadal growth rate2Chennai cityPopulationExtent (sq. km.)Density (persons per sq.km.)1357619168186172183624680---41.19 %32.69 %17.29 %13.02 %19,44,50231,69,93042,89,34754,21,98564,24,624 63.02 %35.31 %26.41 %18.49 %Decadal growth rate3Chennai Urban AgglomerationPopulationDecadal growth rate4Chennai Metropolitan Area (including Chennai City)Population 35,05,50246,01,56658,18,47970,40,582Extent (sq. km.) 1189118911891189Density (persons per sq.km.) 2948387048945921Decadal growth rate 31.27 %26.45 %21.00 %Source: Census of India, Second Master Plan for Chennai Metropolitan Area 2026, http://www.thaibicindia.org.in/study/tamil nadu/Demographic, dated 14.08.2010, http://www.tn.gov.in/cma/UrbanReport.pdf, dated 14.08.2010.Table 2 gives the demographic profile of the CMA with reference to Tamil Nadu,Chennai City and Chennai Urban Agglomeration (CUA). The CMA has grown froma population of 35.06 lakh in the year 1971 to 70.41 lakh in the year 2001. Thecity population has grown from 17.49 lakh in the year 1961 to 43.44 lakh in theyear 2001. The population of CMA is 11.28 percent of the population of TamilNadu state as per 2001 census. This proportion has steadily increased to 8.51percent, 9.51 percent and 10.42 percent during the years 1971, 1981 and 1991respectively. The Second Master Plan for CMA, 2026 has projected the populationof CMA to reach 88.71 lakh in the year 2011, 111.97 lakh in 2021 and 125.82 lakhin 2026.The CMA forms even less than 1 percent of the total extent (0.914 percent) ofthe Tamil Nadu state but accommodate over 11 percent of the total populationof the state. Along with Chennai city, the capital of the state, the CMA hasgained importance in terms of attractiveness for industrial activities includingInformation Technology and Information Technology Enabled Services (IT andITES) sector. Also the CMA has become a major hub for higher education andProf. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala34
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57specialized health care facilities, inviting increasing population both from variousparts of the country and abroad.From the above Table 2, it is observed that the rate of decadal population growthover the past four decades follows a decreasing trend in the state, Chennaicity, CUA and CMA as well. However, CMA is experiencing higher decadal growthrates since 1981-1991 as compared to the Chennai city area and Chennai UrbanAgglomeration. Density in the CMA is as less as 59 persons per hectare as per2001 census, which indicates huge scope for accommodating higher populationdensities as against the already denser (247 persons per hectare) Chennai city.Any plan, proposal or project intended for the development of the urbanarea should therefore be prepared based on scientific methods of populationprojections, land use allocation strategies as well as based on appropriatespatial simulation techniques to foresee the likely influence of the plan,proposal, scheme or project on the growth of the urban area. Understandingof the pattern of spatial development of the urban area on temporal scale isthus the most important aspect for planning the directives to achieve a betterfuture development. This could be made possible only on proper identificationof the variables and determinants which would influence the population growthand spatial development so that appropriate directives and interventions on theurban growth are drawn.3. RESEARCH DESIGNThe objectives of the research are: To identify the settlements in the CMA experiencing high, medium andlow growth rate during 1961-2001. To identify and assess the factors responsible for these growth trends. To study the policy statements on the growth of the CMA and to identifythe conflicting areas. To spell out development interventions required for the growth of theCMA.Studies reveal an extensive set of factors used to represent demographic, socioeconomic, physical, and environmental and infrastructure aspects influencingurban development. Ian Bracken (1981) lists out many development potentialfactors used in the Structure Plan for Staffordshire, West Berkshire andWorcestershire.In another study Chattopadhyay and Subramanian (1993) identified factors suchas transportation corridors, slope, land capability, geology, soils, relief, rainfall,cyclones and flooding, drainage, minerals and wild life sanctuaries in their studyon spatial pattern of settlements in Tamil Nadu.Prof. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala35
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57Table 3: Synthesis of Database Analysis and ResultStaffordshireWest Berkshire – 7.8.9.Landscape QualityAgricultural landResidential EnvironmentNoise and Air PollutionUrban SprawlAccess to country sideReclamation of derelictAccess to JobsAccess to public transportServicing restraintsBuilding restraintsAccess to labourAccess to ShopsCost of water supplyCost of SewageCost of DrainageLoss of agricultural landAccess to workplaceAccess to shopsCost of gas supplyCost of electricityLoss of mineral reservesImpact on landscapeResidential environmentHistoric areasSite access to existing roadPublic Transport parking andenvironment impact to trafficmovementsUtility ServicesTransportationHospital and educationalShoppingAtmospheric noise pollutionNature conservationLandscapeAgricultureConservation and attractivevillages10. Archeological remains11. Recreation and leisureA review of some of the recent literature also reveals an exhaustive set of factorssimilar to those dealt earlier, used in analyzing urban growth dynamics. AnthonyGar-On and Xia (2002) define seven spatial variables to represent the siteattributes of each cell for the simulation of urban development, using neuralnetwork-based CA (Cellular Automata) model. The spatial variables are: Distance to the major urban areasDistance to the sub-urban areasDistance to nearest roadDistance to nearest expresswayDistance to nearest railwaysNeighborhood development levelAgricultural suitabilityRahman, M. Rejaur (2007) has identified the following spatial and non-spatialinfluencing factors of urban growth: Spatial FactorsLand Price Surface Road Accessibility Land Elevation Private Housing Scheme Non-spatial FactorsDemographic factorsSocial factorsEconomic factorsPolitical factorsKAJITA, Yoshitaka et al (2005) in a land use forecasting model using a neuralnetwork (NN) have used several factors for land use change predictions.Prof. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala36
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57 Present condition of the land uses of the mesh itself Present condition of the land uses of the surrounded mesh Population density Weighted distance from a colony mesh Weighted distance calculated for each urbanization and land use divisionsuch as public use, residence, commerce, industry, park, transportationfacilities, and road use Distance from a nearby (traffic) station Distance from a central city area Altitude Distance from an urbanization promotion areaIn a study, considering the local conditions, following twenty two factors relatingto physical, environmental and infrastructure aspects which influence the growthtrends was identified for each of the villages in the CMA: Population size Population density Decadal growth rate of population Percentage of total workers Percentage of male workers Percentage of primary workers Percentage of secondary workers Percentage of tertiary workers Water table level Quality of ground water Physical constraints on land development Land value Land ownership Availability of land for development Nearness to work places Government schemes Government proposals Accessibility by road Accessibility by rail Road conditionProf. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala37
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57 Environmental conditionSocial conditionOther factors which also contribute considerably to the growth of a village viz.level of facilities such as health, education, water supply, sewage and drainagewere not included in the above list. It was felt that the collection and use ofdata, particularly qualitative data, on these factors for quite large number ofvillages within the stipulated duration of study was highly difficult.Data related to all the twenty two factors collected at village level were usedin the preparation of data matrix. The data matrix was run in computer basedprincipal component analysis technique and factor analysis technique. Table 4gives the synthesis of data base, analysis of data and the results obtained relatingto each of the set objectives.4. THE 2001 SCENARIO4.1Population SizeA total of 15 villages in CMA have population more than 10,000 during the year1971, the most populous among them was Thiruvottiyur Municipality with apopulation of over 82,000. Nine other villages emerged, each of them crossinga population of 10,000 during the year 1981 with Thiruvottiyur Municipalityupholding the position with a population over 134,000. However AmbatturMunicipality emerged as the most populous one during the year 1991 and 2001with a population of about 215,000 and 311,000 respectively. Sixteen morevillages emerged during 1991 and three more villages emerged during 2001 witha population of over 10,000.Quite interestingly, it is observed that villages present immediately abuttingthe city boundary viz. Thiruvottiyur, Madhavaram, Ambattur, Valasaravakkam,St. Thomas Mount Cantonment and Alandur picked up development as early as1971. Ullagaram – Puzhuthivakkam showed emergence during 1981. Nerkundram,Ramapuram, Manapakkam and Kottivakkam emerged during 1991 whereasPerungudi and Pallikaranai emerged only during 2001. During 2001, the villagesalong Old Mahabalipuram Road viz. Perungudi, Okkiyamthorapakkam andSholinganallur and those along ECR viz. Neelankarai and Injambakkam emergedin a contiguous fashion. Only one village in the northern part of the CMA, namely,Vallur emerged with a population crossing 10,000 during the year 2001. Table6 indicates the transportation corridors along which the growth of villages hastaken place during 1971 – 2006. Fig. 2 shows the emergence of villages from 1971to 2006.The scatter diagram (Fig. 3) clearly shows the distribution of emerging villagesfrom the Chennai city during different points of time from 1971 to 2006. Thearea above the central axis shows a dispersed pattern of emergence of villages.Prof. Dr. S.P. Sekar and S. Kanchanamala38
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 4, October - December 2011, 31 - 57Table 4: Synthesis of Data Base, Analysis and Result of the Objectives in the StudyObjectiveData BaseAnalysisResultObservation(i) ToIdentify thesettlementsin CMAexperiencinghigh, mediumand lowgrowth rateduring 19612001Population size of villagesfrom censuses of Tamil Nadu,1961-2001Percentage growth rate ofpopulation in each decadeClassificationof villagesHigh: 100%,Medium:50-100% andLow: 50% 75% villages fell under lowgrowth rate settlements.Around 10% had shown highgrowth rates. Mainly villagesalong OMR, ECR and GST Roadfell under this category.(ii) To Identifyand assessthe factorsresponsiblefor thegrowth trendsCensus of Tamil Nadu 1991for factors (i) to (vii);Records of PWD (GroundWater Cell) for (ix & x);CMDA maps, Structure Planand reports (for xi, xiii toxviii); Guide line value fromRegistration Department (forxii); Metropolitan TransportCorporation (for xviii); SubUrban Railway Time Table (forxix); Observation (for xx &xxi); and Police Department(for xxii)Data matrix was run inPrincipal componentAnalysis and factor analysissoftware.Indices ofaccessibility,physicalquality& landavailability,nearness towork places& cheap landavailabilityand proposalsarrived at.Twenty two factors had beenidentified as responsiblefor growth trends. Out ofthem, those relating toaccessibility by road and rail,environmental and socialconditions, availability of landfor development, land value,nearness to work places andgovernment proposals hadgreater influence on the growthof a village.(iii) To Studythe policystatement onthe growth ofCMA and toindentify theconflictingareasThe General Town PlanningScheme (1957), The MadrasInterim Plan (1967);Metropolitan Plan (1968),Urban Development ofGreater Madras (1970), MadrasMetropolitan Plan 1971-1991(1971), Master Plan for MMA(1974), Structure Plan for MMA(1980), Draft Master Plan forMMA-2011 (1993), and SecondMaster Plan for CMA, 2026A comparative analysis wasmade on the provisionslike strategy for physicalgrowth, landuse controls,detailed land use plans,land acquisition for futureurban development,financial requirement, anddevelopment policiesThe MasterPlan for MMA(1974) andDraft MasterPlan forMMA-2011(1993) arefound tosatisfy all theparametersofcomparison.Wide gap observed betweenthe policy statements and theactual developments and sothere were conflicting areas.(iv) To spellout thedevelopmentinterventionsrequired forthe growth ofCMAThe results of objectives 2& 3 are taken as inputs forspelling out the interventions.The entire CMA is dividedinto 9 zones each assignedwith a focal point. Theinterventions to beproposed for each zonebased on the actualdevelopments and thefactors which are importantare desired developmentare worked out.Interventionsfor majorsettlementsin all the
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