Consumer Price Index - August 2019

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Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until8:30 a.m. (EDT) September 12, 2019USDL-19-1596Technical information: (202) 691-7000 cpi info@bls.gov www.bls.gov/cpiMedia Contact:(202) 691-5902 PressOffice@bls.govCONSUMER PRICE INDEX – AUGUST 2019The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in August on aseasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reportedtoday. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.Increases in the indexes for shelter and medical care were the major factors in the seasonally adjusted allitems monthly increase, outweighing a decline in the energy index. The energy index fell 1.9 percent inAugust as the gasoline index declined 3.5 percent. The food index was unchanged for the third month ina row.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, the same increase as in June andJuly. Along with the indexes for medical care and shelter, the indexes for recreation, used cars andtrucks, and airline fares were among the indexes that increased in August. The indexes for new vehiclesand household furnishings and operations declined over the month.The all items index increased 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending August; the 12-month increase hasremained in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 percent since the period ending December 2018. The index for allitems less food and energy rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months, its largest 12-month increase sinceJuly 2018. The food index rose 1.7 percent over the last year while the energy index declined 4.4percent.Chart 1. One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, Aug. 2018 - Aug. 2019Percent ug'19

Chart 2. 12-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), not seasonally adjusted, Aug. 2018 - Aug. 2019Percent nFebAll itemsMarAprMayJunJulAug'19All items less food and energyTable A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city averageSeasonally adjusted changes from preceding monthFeb.2019All items .Food .Food at home .Food away from home 1 .Energy .Energy commodities .Gasoline (all types) .Fuel oil .Energy services .Electricity .Utility (piped) gas service .All items less food and energy .Commodities less food and energycommodities .New vehicles .Used cars and trucks .Apparel .Medical care commodities .Services less energy services .Shelter .Transportation services .Medical care services adjusted12-mos.endedAug. -.11.1.2.3.3.2.4.9.8.22.11.0.12.93.4.94.31 Not seasonally adjusted.-2-

FoodThe food index was unchanged in August. The index for food at home declined for the third month in arow, falling 0.2 percent. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs decreased 0.7 percent in August asthe index for eggs fell 2.6 percent. The index for fruits and vegetables, which rose in July, fell 0.5percent in August; the index for fresh fruits declined 1.4 percent, but the index for fresh vegetables rose0.4 percent. The index for cereals and bakery products fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.3 percentin July.The index for other food at home rose 0.3 percent in August after declining 0.7 percent in July. Theindex for dairy and related products also increased in August, rising 0.2 percent. The index fornonalcoholic beverages was unchanged in August.The index for food away from home rose 0.2 percent in August, the same increase as in July. Theindexes for full service meals and for limited service meals both increased 0.2 percent over the month.The food at home index rose 0.5 percent over the last 12 months. Five of the six major grocery storefood group indexes increased over the span, with nonalcoholic beverages (1.7 percent) rising the most.The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was the only one to decline, falling 0.6 percent. The indexfor food away from home rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, with the index for full service mealsincreasing 3.4 percent and the index for limited service meals rising 3.1 percent.EnergyThe energy index declined 1.9 percent in August, its third decline in the last 4 months. The gasolineindex fell 3.5 percent in August following a 2.5-percent increase in July. (Before seasonal adjustment,gasoline prices fell 4.3 percent in August.) The electricity index also declined in August, falling 0.3percent after rising in July. The index for natural gas, however, increased slightly in August, rising 0.1percent after falling in each of the last 7 months.The energy index decreased 4.4 percent over the past 12 months as all the major energy componentindexes declined. The gasoline index fell 7.1 percent, and the fuel oil index declined 8.4 percent over theyear. The index for natural gas declined 3.5 percent over the past year, and the index for electricity fellslightly, decreasing 0.1 percent.All items less food and energyThe index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in August, the same increase as inJune and July. The medical care index was the largest contributor to the August increase, rising 0.7percent. The index for hospital services rose sharply in August, increasing 1.4 percent, and the index fornonprescription drugs increased 1.6 percent. However, the index for physicians’ services wasunchanged, and the index for prescription drugs declined slightly, falling 0.2 percent.The shelter index rose 0.2 percent in August, following 0.3 percent increases in June and July. Theindexes for rent and for owners’ equivalent rent both advanced 0.2 percent in August. The index forused cars and trucks rose 1.1 percent in August, its third consecutive increase. The recreation index rose0.5 percent in August, its largest increase since December 2018. The index for airline fares continued torise in August, increasing 1.7 percent following a 2.3-percent advance in July. The index for personal-3-

care rose 0.3 percent in August after increasing 0.4 percent in July. Also increasing in August were theindexes for apparel, for motor vehicle insurance, and for tobacco.Few indexes declined in August, but the new vehicles index continued to fall, decreasing 0.1 percentfollowing a 0.2-percent decline in July. The index for household furnishings and operations alsodecreased in August, falling 0.1 percent after rising in each of the past 3 months.The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.4 percent over the past 12 months, with most majorcomponent indexes rising over the span. The shelter index increased 3.4 percent over the last year, andthe medical care index rose 3.5 percent.Not seasonally adjusted CPI measuresThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.7 percent over the last 12months to an index level of 256.558 (1982-84 100). For the month, the index was unchanged prior toseasonal adjustment.The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.5percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 250.112 (1982-84 100). For the month, the indexwas unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment.The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 1.7 percent over thelast 12 months. For the month, the index was unchanged on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please notethat the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.The Consumer Price Index for September 2019 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, October10, 2019 at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).-4-

Technical NoteBrief Explanation of the CPIThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods andservices. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers andurban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent ofthe total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitanareas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as wellas urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of peopleliving in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those ininstitutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers ismeasured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and theChained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on theexpenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements: more than onehalf of the household's income must come from clerical or wage occupations, and at least one of thehousehold's earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks during the previous 12 months. TheCPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the total U.S. population and is a subset of the CPI-Upopulation.The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors’ and dentists’services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collectedeach month in 75 urban areas across the country from about 6,000 housing units and approximately22,000 retail establishments (department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other typesof stores and service establishments). All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items areincluded in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 75 locations.Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest geographicareas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personalvisits or telephone calls by the Bureau’s trained representatives.In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated usingweights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Localdata are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes arealso published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions andpopulation-size classes, and for 23 selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in thelevel of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the baseperiod. For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W areconsidered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to threesubsequent quarterly revisions.The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and the CPI-W,the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals100. An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 107.000. Alternatively,that relationship can also be expressed as the price of a base period market basket of goods and servicesrising from 100 to 107.Sampling Error in the CPIThe CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample ofretail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change standard errors annually for the CPI-U. Thesestandard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For-5-

example, the estimated standard error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. allitems CPI. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the samemethodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these estimates willbe within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percentchange based on all retail prices would fall between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, includinginformation on how to use the estimates of standard error, see ome.htm.Calculating Index ChangesMovements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather thanchanges in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation toits base period, while percent changes are not. The following table shows an example of using indexvalues to calculate percent changes:Item AItem BItem CYear I112.500225.000110.000Year II121.500243.000128.0009.00018.00018.000Change in indexpointsPercent change9.0/112.500 x 100 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 16.4Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted DataThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. Seasonallyadjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonaladjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are used to revise theprevious 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available nal-factors-2019.pdf. For more information on datarevision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at nswers.htm and the Timeline of Seasonal Adjustment MethodologicalChanges at nal-adjustment-methodologychanges.htm.For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferredsince they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the samemagnitude every year—such as price movements resulting from weather events, production cycles,model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on changes that are not typicalfor the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the pricesthey actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collectivebargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to theConsumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use ofseasonally adjusted data in escalation agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revisedannually.-6-

Intervention AnalysisThe Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment for some CPI series.Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal pattern of pricechange. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the distortions caused by suchunusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Theresulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent the seasonal pattern, are then applied to theunadjusted data.For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009 return tonormal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier data duringseasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion of the time series datafor motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to seasonal adjustment. Followingthat, seasonal factors were calculated based on this “prior adjusted” data. These seasonal factorsrepresent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonalfactors to be applied to the unadjusted data.For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2019, BLS adjusted 51 series using intervention analysisseasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity, and vehicles.Revision of Seasonally Adjusted IndexesSeasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to revisionfor up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonalfactors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data. Seasonally adjustedindexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject to revision. For January2019, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2014 to 2018 were calculated andpublished. For series which are directly adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonaladjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2018 will be applied to data for 2019 to produce theseasonally adjusted 2019 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summingseasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore notavailable in advance.Determining Seasonal StatusEach year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. Usingthese criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from "not seasonallyadjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S. city average allitems index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted,not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years,but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. Twenty-nine of the 81components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted for 2019.Contact InformationFor additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information andAnalysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi info@bls.gov.For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonaladjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at 202-691-6968 orcpiseas@bls.gov.Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request.Voice phone: 202-691-5200; Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339.-7-

Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category,August 2019[1982-84 100, unless otherwise noted]Expenditure categoryRelativeimportanceJul.2019Unadjusted indexesAug.2018Jul.2019Aug.2019Unadjusted percentchangeSeasonally adjusted 19Jun.2019Jun.2019Jul.2019Jul.2019Aug.2019All items. .Food. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Food at home. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Cereals and bakery products. . . . . . . . . . . .Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. . . . . . . . . . . .Dairy and related products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fruits and vegetables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Nonalcoholic beverages and beveragematerials. .Other food at home. .Food away from home1. .2-0.60.70.3-0.4-0.70.20.00.30.2Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Energy commodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fuel oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Motor fuel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gasoline (all types). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Energy services. .Electricity. .Utility (piped) gas service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2-0.30.1All items less food and energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Commodities less food and energycommodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Apparel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .New vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Used cars and trucks. .Medical care commodities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Alcoholic beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Tobacco and smoking products. .Services less energy services. . . . . . . . . . . . . .Shelter. .Rent of primary residence. . . . . . . . . . . . .Owners’ equivalent rent ofresidences2. .Medical care services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Physicians’ services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Hospital services3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Transportation services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Motor vehicle maintenance andrepair1. . . . . . . . .Motor vehicle insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Airline fares. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.407253.129253.3141,064.098 1,120.066 2-0.11.10.30.10.50.30.20.21Not seasonally adjusted.Indexes on a December 1982 100 base.3Indexes on a December 1996 100 71.60.80.0-3.20.40.3-0.9-0.10.32.30.80.11.7

Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by detailed expenditurecategory, August 2019[1982-84 100, unless otherwise noted]Expenditure categoryAll items. .Food. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Food at home. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Cereals and bakery products. .Cereals and cereal products. .Flour and prepared flour mixes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Breakfast cereal1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Rice, pasta, cornmeal1. .Rice1, 2, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bakery products1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bread1, 2. .White bread1, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bread other than white1, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fresh biscuits, rolls, muffins2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Cakes, cupcakes, and cookies. .Cookies3. .Fresh cakes and cupcakes1, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Other bakery products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes, doughnuts1, 3. . . .Crackers, bread, and cracker products3. . . . . . . . .Frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies,tarts, turnovers3. .Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. .Meats, poultry, and fish. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Meats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Beef and veal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Uncooked ground beef1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Uncooked beef roasts1, 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Uncooked beef steaks2. .Uncooked other beef and veal1, 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Pork. .Bacon, breakfast sausage, and relatedproducts2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Bacon and related products3. .Breakfast sausage and related products2, 3. . .Ham. .Ham, excluding canned3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Pork chops1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Other pork including roasts, steaks, and ribs2. .Other meats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Frankfurters3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Lunchmeats2, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Lamb and organ meats1, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Lamb and mutton1, 2, 3. .Poultry1. .Chicken1, 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fresh whole chicken1, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fresh and frozen chicken parts1, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . .Other uncooked poultry including turkey2. . . . . . . .Fish and seafood. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fresh fish and seafood2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Processed fish and seafood2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Shelf stable fish and seafood1, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .See footnotes at end of Unadjusted percentchangeSeasonally adjusted percent 1.00.1-0.10.1-0.31.40.30.30.0-0.8

Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by detailed expenditurecategory, August 2019 — Continued[1982-84 100, unless otherwise noted]Expenditure categoryFrozen fish and seafood3. .Eggs. .Dairy and related products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Milk2. .Fresh whole milk3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Fresh milk other than whole2, 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Cheese and related products1. .Ice cream and related products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Other dairy and related products1, 2. . . .

items monthly increase, outweighing a decline in the energy index. The energy index fell 1.9 percent in August as the gasoline index declined 3.5 percent. The food index was unchanged for the third month in a row. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3

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