A Net-zero Gas Emissions - IES
A net-zeroGas EmissionsInitiating the debateon transition policiesPieter Boussemaere - Jan Cools - Michel De PaepeCathy Macharis - Erik Mathijs - Bart Muys - Karel Van AckerHan Vandevyvere - Arne van Stiphout - Frank VenmansKris Verheyen - Pascal Vermeulen - Sara Vicca - Tomas Wyns
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors alone.
1. Executive summary4Purpose and context of this report5Addressing dangerous human-made climate change5Current status of Belgium’s climate action6Approach and scope of this report7Vision for Net-0 greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium in 20507The transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions10Financing the transition13Transition governance142. Introduction163. B elgium’s greenhouse gas emissions:183.1.Current status of greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium193.2.Belgian climate goal for 2030 and expected impact of mitigation activities203.3.Moving towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050223.4.Initiating the debate on transition policies234. Sectoral transition pathways244.1.Mobility and Logistics254.2.Buildings, the built environment and urban and regional planning294.3.Industry and materials use324.4.Agriculture, food and forestry354.5.Electricity System364.6.Financing the transition and fiscal reform394.7.Cross-sectoral transition elements415. Transition governance425.1.Introduction435.2.Develop long-term and integrated vision and strategy435.3.Determined and strengthened administrations455.4.An independent academic center of expertise456. Conclusions467. Actions to be considered now488. Contributors to this publication559. Further Reading59
1. Executive summary
Purpose and context of this reportThis report was developed and written byresearchers from diverse disciplines and acrossdifferent academic and research institutes inBelgium. It is the contribution of these researchersto the call for action under the ‘Sign for My Future’campaign. It is inspired by the widespread societalcall for climate action by ‘youth for climate’ and thecoalition of a wide range of societal actors. It also,in particular, responds to the call for the scientificcommunity to actively engage in this debate andwas informed and guided by the latest scientificevidence on anthropogenic climate change and therelated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathwaysthat stand a significant chance to avoid globalaverage temperature increases of 1.5 C and 2 Ccompared to pre-industrial levels.The main goal of this report is to support Belgianpolicy makers and key stakeholders in thedevelopment of a vision and strategy towardsachieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions inBelgium by 2050, while taking into account theimpact of consumption inside Belgium leading toemissions outside of our country.Addressing dangerous human-madeclimate change and a mid-centurynet-0 emissions target for BelgiumThe urgency to tackle anthropogenic climate changecannot be stressed enough. Global average temperaturehas already risen by about 1 C from pre-industrial levels,and we are increasingly being confronted with theconsequences: ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising,and extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughtsand floods are increasing in frequency and intensity.As the Earth gets warmer, such extremes will become morecommon and if the warming rises above 2 C, the risk ofself-reinforcing climate change will increase considerably.Therefore, it is of great concern that in the last ten years,national pledges to reduce emissions have reduced theforecast of global warming from above 4 C by the end ofthe century to only around 3 C. Clearly, more policy actionis needed across the world to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 C.The Paris Agreement on climate change was a milestonein global political efforts to address manmade climatechange. Parties to the Paris Agreement have engaged to“hold the increase in the global average temperature to wellbelow 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursue effortsto limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above preindustrial levels, recognizing that this would significantlyreduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. Belgiumhas (together with the EU), signed and ratified the ParisAgreement, which entered into force on May 6th, 2017.Initiating the debate on transition policies5
A net-zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions Belgium - 2015The recent ‘Global warming of 1.5 C’ report from theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) furtheremphasises the vital importance of limiting further warmingto as low a level as possible and the need for deep andrapid emission reductions in order to do so. Specifically, tolimit global warming to 1.5 C, global CO2 emissions need toalmost halve between 2010 and 2030 and reach ‘net zeroGHG emissions’ by 2050. Net-zero GHG emissions impliesthat any remaining emissions are compensated for by activeCO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Timely and sizableCDR is expected to be important given the difficulty in entirelyeliminating emissions from some sectors.Given the above-mentioned urgency, the authors ofthis report recommend Belgium and the EU to adopta 2050 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions targetand put in place an adequate strategy followedby policies and measures to achieve this goal.Furthermore, it is highly recommended that anyfuture strategy takes into account the reductionof Belgium’s indirect emissions i.e. internationalemissions related to consumption in Belgium.Current status of Belgium’sclimate action and the need for aconsistent long-term strategy.As part of the 2030 European Union (EU) climate andenergy framework, EU Member States have to develop socalled National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). Theseplans have the goal to further integrate and coordinatenational, regional and EU climate and energy policies.The EU’s climate targets are split into two parts. The (fossilfuel-based) electricity generators and heavy industry (e.g. steel,chemicals, cement, ) are part of an EU-wide emissions tradingsystem (EU ETS) with a single EU target. For the other parts of theeconomy (e.g. transport, buildings, waste, agriculture and forestry)there is an overall EU target which is translated into binding nationalsub-targets under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD).6They NECPs contain Member States’ plans to reduceemissions in their ESD sectors , how renewable energy willbe further developed, how energy efficiency will be improvedand how security of (energy) supply will be managed in theperiod 2020-2030. The draft Belgian plan was submitted to theEuropean Commission at the end of 2018. The Commissionwill review the plans and offer recommendations. The finalplans have to be developed by autumn 2019.According to the Belgian NECP, existing climate mitigationmeasures will likely lead to an economy-wide increase inemissions between 2015 and 2030, mainly due to an expectedincrease in the emissions from the power sector which fall underthe scope of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) (whichcovers energy production and heavy industry). Existing policieswill lead to further minimal reductions after 2020 in the effortsharing decision sectors, with a reduction of 11% expectedin 2030 (compared to 2005 emissions). This confirms theassessment by the European Commission as mentioned beforethat the current climate policy framework in Belgium is largelyinsufficient towards meeting the 2030 target.The NECP also presents a scenario in which additional policiesand measures are implemented at regional and federal levels.While these announced additional instruments might indeed leadto emission reductions in line with Belgium’s 2030 climate goal,this (EU set) 2030 climate goal is far from sufficient to reach theParis agreement target. Moreover, there exists a lot of uncertaintyconcerning implementation. Firstly, a full assessment of theadditional policies is not presented, in particular regarding theprovision of budgetary or other means of implementation. Someof the proposed instruments remain vague, and finally, thereis no political commitment or agreement to implement all theannounced instruments. This can partially be explained by thenature of the plan itself which does not require macro-economicanalyses and detailed implementation provisions.There are also more fundamental concerns with regard tothe regional and national climate plans for 2030. The WalloonClimate Expert Commission found the 2030 climate plan for theWalloon region insufficiently ambitious because it postponesthe major effort towards a zero-emission target to the period2030-2050. The plan hence risks locking-in carbon intensiveinvestments between 2019 and 2030 thereby increasing theoverall costs of the climate policy. The plan was also criticisedfor having cumulative emissions that are incompatible with the2 C target of the Paris agreement. The found lack of ambitionand risk of locking-in carbon emissions is valid for the climateplans of the other regions in Belgium and ergo the nationalclimate plan. It hence strengthens the case in favour of betterand better coordinated long-term climate strategies in Belgium.
Approach and scope of this reportBy developing a vision on how a 2050 net-zero greenhousegas emissions Belgium might look like it becomes possibleto back-cast from 2050 to today. This can bring about anew perspective on how GHG mitigation can be addressedtoday and how to avoid locking-in high GHG emissions overa period of decades. This type of foresight can help policymakers navigate the dense fog of the plethora of mitigationoptions that are being considered at the moment.First, a vision of 2050 net-zero greenhouse gasemissions is presented for each of the abovementioned areas. Our vision cannot be seen as theresult of modelling or detailed calculations but must beconsidered as a projection of experts in these areas,based on their experience and knowledge of availableliterature on how net-0 emissions could become areality and what it would look like in practice. At the endof this report a robust list of literature, which informedthe 2050 sector visions, is presented.This report considers the transition to net-zerogreenhouse gas emissions for the following areas:Based on the vision of net-zero greenhouse gasemissions in different sectors, the necessary steps inthe transition process become clear, along with thetimeframes of implementation that need to be realised.This transition-based thinking thus provides informationon actions that will need to be considered today to ensuretimely implementation of the transition towards net-0emissions and to avoid locking-in pathways that make itdifficult or even impossible to achieve this long-term goal. Mobility and logistics uildings, the built environmentBand urban and regional planning Industry and materials Agriculture, food and forestry The electricity systemVision for Net-0 greenhouse gas emissions in Belgium in 2050Mobility and logisticsBy 2050 there will be important changes to the transport andlogistics systems with ‘mobility as a service’ (MAAS) havingreplaced the private car ownership focussed society of today.Cars, vans and busses will all be powered by electricity.The demand for transport will have been reduced due todensification of the residential areas. There will also be ampleand convenient cycling and walking infrastructure and peoplewill use cycle/walking short distances or use e-bikes formedium distances.Initiating the debate on transition policiesAll goods that can be transported from the seaports will beplaced on inland waterways and railways. Road transport ofgoods will have become the exception, the exception being forshort and medium distances with zero-emission trucks. Goodsfor the city will be further bundled in a city distribution centreon the outskirts of the city and distributed by electric vans andcargo bikes. Short haul air travel will have been completelyreplaced by train or bus travel. In 2050, aviation will be makinguse of alternative/synthetic fuels and hybrid systems for longdistance flights. Shipping will be electric for short distancesand use alternative fuels for long-distances.7
A net-zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions Belgium - 2015Buildings, the built environment andurban and regional planningIn 2050, more nature and forests will have been createdand protected, resulting in enhanced biodiversity and betterresilience to deal with the impacts of climate change. Urbanand regional planning will have been reorganised by revertingto both a focused urban densification on the one hand and dedensification or phasing out of roads and buildings in sensitivenature areas on the other hand. This operation will haveenhanced efficient and sustainable energy use, but it will havealso contributed to other benefits for society like improvedsustainability of mobility, services and utilities, natureconservation and agriculture, water management, renewableenergy production and climate adaptation. The eco-efficiencyof the entire spatial system will thus have been improved.The building stock will in 2050 operate in a completely fossilfree manner by using 100% renewable energy sources, producedlocally or sourced from another location. In this way, twodominant types of neighbourhoods will have come to exist. Thefirst type would be served by a sustainable heating network; thesecond type sources sustainable electricity for supplying heatto buildings using a heat pump (also for domestic hot water).If possible and where appropriate, neighbourhoods wouldbe supplied by so called e-fuels, like syngas and hydrogen,which will have been produced by sustainable electricity. Onlya minor part of the buildings would be using biomass, biogasor direct electrical heating. In highly exceptional cases, like inhistorical buildings, a fossil fuel would still be used but witha highly efficient technology. Through upscaled retrofit of theexisting building stock, supported by appropriate financial,regulatory and capacity-related incentives, all buildings wouldhave acquired a proper degree of energy-efficiency and wouldtherefore be fit for being serviced by the aforementionedrenewable and sustainable energy sources.8Agriculture, food and forestryIn 2050, GHG emissions from agriculture and livestock farmingwould be in balance with CO2 removal. In particular, carbonsequestration in soils will have been significantly increasedas a result of improved agricultural practices. Greenhousehorticulture would no longer use fossil fuels but rely entirely ongreen electricity or other sustainable alternatives. Through acombination of less animal husbandry, genetic progress, bettermanure treatment, more sustainable feeding with grazing,emissions from livestock farming will have been significantlyreduced. Indirect GHG emissions from agriculture and landuse, i.e. emission that are not taken into account in the sector’smitigation efforts because they are accounted elsewhere(diet and feeding behaviour, choice of building materials,etc.), would also have fallen significantly. The share of animalproteins in the consumer’s diet will have decreased in favourof vegetable-based proteins. Better coordination betweenproducers and consumers using for instance digital platformswould reduce food losses. The use of packaging and transportin food production will have been significantly reduced.Reusable packaging will have largely replaced single use.
Industry and materialsElectricity systemBy 2050 the industrial sectors’ GHG emissions (direct andindirect) will be 90% lower compared to 2005 levels. Alternativeproduction processes using electricity, hydrogen, sustainablebiomass and circular feedstock, for example, have beenwidely implemented. Where there are remaining emissionsthat cannot be reduced by these alternative processes, theyare captured and used in new products or stored. Companieswill have embraced new business models with the aim ofmaximising the value of materials in the economy, making anessential contribution to the overall goal of reducing materialsconsumption. All (non-hazardous) waste and residue streamsare brought back into circulation. Linear consumption willhave disappeared. Industrial processes will have maximisedsymbiosis (heat, water, materials, residual flows) with otherprocesses in the neighbourhood and with other sectors in theeconomy (e.g. buildings (heat), agriculture, food, energy, etc.).A climate-friendly electricity system will be a keycomponent in making the whole Belgian energy systemand economy climate-friendly by 2050. Over 80% of theelectricity will come from renewable sources, originatingfrom both domestic and international sources. In 2050,the Belgian electricity system will be completely GHGemission-free. Domestic renewable power generationwill often be co-owned by citizens, for example viaenergy cooperatives. The Belgian electricity system willhave become fully integrated into a European energysystem and market. In particular, the integration withpower markets and electricity systems in neighbouringcountries will have been fully optimised.Other sectors will rely strongly on the electricity sectorto meet their energy demand, especially those for whichthe integration of renewable energy presents a greaterchallenge, like mobility and the built environment.This increasing electrification will be accompanied byambitious energy efficiency efforts across all sectors tomanage the total electricity demand.The electricity system will also have become heavilyintegrated with other energy vectors, like heating& cooling and gas systems, especially at the locallevel. This would include residual heat from industry,solar energy, deep geothermal energy and biomassapplications, as far as the latter are sustainably sourcedand processed. The integration of electric mobility withthe power system would be an important element of theelectricity system in 2050 with the large fleet of electricvehicles acting and being managed as a key electricitystorage and grid management instrument. Othersolutions further facilitate the integration of renewableenergy, like gas-fired power plants fueled by syntheticgas, decentralized and large-scale storage, differenttypes of demand response, and turning power into otherenergy carriers like gas, fuel, hydrogen or heat (P2X)which can also be more easily stored.Initiating the debate on transition policies9
A net-zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions Belgium - 2015The transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissionsMobility and logisticsThe electrification of passenger cars and vans will accelerateconsiderably in the period 2020-2030. From 2020, tax supportfor company cars must only be provided if they are electric,together with the abolition of the fuel card. Public and privatecharging stations need to have been rolled out and be bidirectional, allowing vehicle to grid and smart charging in2030. From 2030 onwards, fossil fuel powered cars must nolonger be allowed to be sold or registered. For new vans sold,this ban could be introduced as early as 2025. Smart roadpricing (based on location, time, type of vehicle) should begradually introduced as from 2025 in order to internalise theexternal costs of transport.An ambitious investment plan for public transport and cyclinginfrastructure needs to be implemented as from 2020. Theintegration with the bicycle and (car) shared mobility systemswill need to be facilitated by the development of sufficientparking facilities at the key transit nodes. The public sectorneeds to further stimulate (vehicle) sharing systems andintegration of mobility services (MAAS) with a special attentionto inclusion and sustainability of the mobility system.Transport of goods via waterways and rail need to be furtherdeveloped by creating a level playing field with other modes oftransport. The use of railways for short and medium distancesshould be made the norm again by making it a cheaper andcomfortable alternative compared to short-haul flights. Incooperation with neighbouring countries, a ta
A net-zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions Belgium - 2015 6. Approach and scope of this report By developing a vision on how a 2050 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions Belgium might look like it becomes possible to back-cast from 2050 to today. This can bring about a
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List of Figures, Tables and Boxes Figures 2 Figure S1 Overview of the key nuances of net-zero target implementation approaches 5 Figure S2 Ten basic criteria for net-zero target transparency 14 Figure 1 Internet searches for net-zero emissions 15 Figure 2 Map of cities and regions pursuing net-zero emissions 16 Figure 3 Population of cities and regions with net-zero targets, by geographic region
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2016 Baldrige Performance Excellence Program www.nist.gov/baldrige It’s all about ‘Results’ 45% of the scoring is results
