The Clean Power And Electrification Pathway
The Clean Power and Electrification PathwayRealizing California’s Environmental GoalsNovember 2017Figure 1: Meeting California’s GHG Reduction Goals (Source: California Air Resources Board [CARB])This paper presents Southern California Edison’s integrated blueprint for California to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Realizing the blueprint will reduce the threat ofclimate change and improve public health related to air quality. It is a systematic approachand each measure is integrated with — and depends upon — the success of the others. Tobe successful, California must approach implementation as an integrated package, applyingresources across the board where most effective.Executive SummaryClimate change and air pollution pose serious threats. Climate change effects, such as sea level rise andlonger, more intense heat waves, are now occurring. In California, while significant progress has been made,too many communities continue to experience asthma and other air-quality-related health issues.California continues its leadership in addressing climate change and air pollution. The state’s greenhouse gas(GHG) goals call for a 40 percent reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2030 and an 80 percentreduction by 2050 (Figure 1). Air quality goals include a 90 percent reduction in emissions of nitrogen oxidesfrom 2010 levels in some of the state’s most polluted areas by 2032. Meeting these ambitious clean energyand clean air goals requires fundamental changes over the next 12 years and beyond.The electric sector is at the forefront of the fight against climate change in California and today accounts foronly 19 percent of the state’s GHG emissions. The transportation sector (including fuel refining) and fossilfuels used in space and water heating now produce almost three times as many GHG emissions as theelectric sector and more than 80 percent of the air pollution in California.The Clean Power and Electrification Pathway is an integrated approach to reduce GHG emissions and airpollution by taking action in three California economic sectors: electricity, transportation and buildings. Itbuilds on existing state policies and uses a combination of measures to produce the most cost-effective andfeasible path forward among the options studied.The Pathway will help California achieve its climate goals and significantly reduce today’s health-harming airpollution in local communities. It also has strong potential to create highly-skilled, middle-income jobs.By 2030, it calls for: an electric grid supplied by 80 percent carbon-free energy; more than 7 million electric vehicles on California roads; and using electricity to power nearly one-third of space and water heaters, in increasingly energy-efficientbuildings.(Continued)
The Clean Power and Electrification Pathway(Continued - Executive Summary)These electrified technologies will use zero-emission resources like solar andwind to provide most of their power, and can in turn support the electric grid bybalancing electricity demand with supply.The private and public sectors must work together to support customer adoption,while ensuring electricity remains reliable and affordable, and that end-usetechnologies are increasingly energy efficient. Public policy can enable the CleanPower and Electrification Pathway through comprehensive integrated resourceplanning that includes consideration of end uses of fossil fuels, through investingcap-and-trade revenues thoughtfully, and through supporting electrification intransportation, homes and businesses.Southern California Edison is proud to be a long-standing partner with the state,customers and our communities on important climate change and air qualityefforts. We look forward to continuing this broad-based partnership to pursuepractical, cost-effective approaches to achieving a bold, clean energy future.Figure 2: Change in California GHG Emissions (Source: CARB)Successive California policies supporting GHG emissions reductions11.2.3.4.5.6.7.SB 1078 (2002), SB 107 (2006), and SB X1-2 (2011) established a Renewables PortfolioStandard (RPS), 20% by 2010 and then 33% by 2020.Executive Order S-3-05 (2005) established a target of reducing GHG emissions 80% below1990 levels by 2050.AB 32 (2006) codified a GHG emissions target of 1990 levels by 2020 and created aneconomy-wide cap-and-trade program.SB 350 (2015) established an RPS of 50% by 2030 and added new requirements for doublingenergy efficiency and for wide scale transportation electrification deployment.SB 32 (2016) codified a GHG target of reducing emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.AB 398 (2017) extended cap-and-trade program to 2030 and defined new offset levels.CARB Proposed Scoping Plan (2017) identifies policies and tools to achieve the 2030 GHGtarget.Additional major policy measures include the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, the Zero EmissionVehicle Program and Sustainable Community Planning.2
IntroductionA systematicapproach thatintegrates theseprograms andmarket activitiesprovides the bestchance of achievingshared goals atthe lowest cost tocustomers and theeconomy.California is committed to reducingits greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,improving local air quality andsupporting continued economicgrowth. The state set goals to reduceGHG emissions by 40 percentfrom 1990 levels by 2030 and 80percent from the same baselineby 2050 (Figure 1).2 State and localair quality plans call for substantialimprovements, such as reducingsmog-causing nitrogen oxides (NOx)90 percent below 2010 levels by2032 in the most polluted areas ofthe state.3 Meeting environmentalgoals of this magnitude will requirefundamental changes to infrastructureand transportation and, at the sametime, can help the California economyby creating jobs. These policy goalscannot be achieved by the electricsector alone.4The Urgency of Meeting ClimateChange and Air Quality GoalsMeeting California’s pressing 2030climate and air quality goals requirestimely, proactive decision-making bypolicymakers and leaders throughoutthe state. Stakeholders must quicklyalign on the near-term programsand market transformation activitiesrequired to meet this ambitiousschedule. A systematic approach thatintegrates these programs and marketactivities provides the best chance ofachieving shared goals at the lowestcost to customers and the economy.The electric sector has provided themajority of emissions reductions inCalifornia (Figure 2) through energyefficiency, the phasing out of coal,and integration of new renewableresources. We are ahead of paceto reach a 50 percent renewablesportfolio standard (RPS) by 2030.5For California to meet its 2030 GHGtarget, significant emission reductionswill be required from consumers ofliquid and gas fuels — primarily in thetransportation and building sectors.The transportation sector contributesnearly 40 percent of California’s GHGemissions (approximately 45 percentwhen oil refining is included) and 80percent of California’s smog-formingNOx emissions.6 The residential,commercial, and industrial sectorscombined contribute approximately30 percent of the state’s GHGemissions (Figure 3). These emissions,as opposed to the emissions from theelectric sector, have risen by morethan 10 percent since 1990.7Figure 3: California GHGEmissions by Sector in2015 (Source: CARB)Southern California Edison, November 20173
The Clean Power and Electrification PathwayClean Power and Electrification PathwayCalifornia has taken concrete steps to move toward a clean energy future. Marketbased policies such as the GHG cap-and-trade program and the low-carbon fuelstandard provide a solid foundation by putting a price on carbon to encouragethe most cost-effective actions to reduce or avoid GHGs. There are multiplepathways to meet California’s 2030 climate goals, with varying levels of difficultyand costs. Some pathways are better than others in positioning the state toachieve 2050’s deeper carbon reduction goals. SCE explored three alternatives(Table 1) and found that a clean power and electrification path is the mostaffordable and feasible approach to reaching California’s climate and air qualitygoals. This pathway also will contribute to a strong state economy and can be anengine for creating highly-skilled, middle-income jobs.8Table 1: Comparing 2030 Decarbonization Pathways (Source: SCE InternalAnalysis using E3 Pathways Model. Available at sce.com/pathwayto2030)Preferred PathwayClean Power andElectrification 80% carbon-freeelectricity supported byenergy storage At least 24% of light-dutyvehicles are EVs (7MM) 15% of medium-duty and6% of heavy-duty vehiclesare electrified Up to 30% efficientelectrification ofcommercial andresidential space andwater heating Dependent on broadadoption of electrifiedtechnologies Most feasible pathwaybecause technologyalready existsIncremental abatement cost(last 36 MMT)* 79/tonRenewable Natural Gas(RNG)Hydrogen (H2) 60% carbon-freeelectricity 80% carbon-freeelectricity 24% of light-duty vehiclesare EVs (7MM) 12% of medium- andheavy-duty vehicles usecompressed natural gas22% zero-emission lightduty vehicles (4MM H2,2MM EV) 4% of heavy-duty vehiclesuse H2 42% of natural gasreplaced by RNG 7% natural gas replacedby hydrogen Power-to-gas not yetcommercially available Most expensive pathway A large biogas marketrequires expensiveimports Requires significant H2adoption outside of CA Lack of sufficient deliveryinfrastructureIncremental abatement cost(last 36 MMT) 137/tonIncremental abatement cost(last 36 MMT) 262/tonThe pathways analyzed include measures to achieve the full 2030 GHG abatement (180 MMT), such as existing state policies andprograms included in CARB’s Proposed Scoping Plan and additional measures. 36 MMT represents the last 20 percent of GHGabatement needed to meet the 2030 target after offsets are used. This incremental abatement is incentivized by the cap-and-trademarket.*4
The Vision for Clean Powerand ElectrificationThe Clean Powerand ElectrificationPathway.buildson existing stateprograms andpolicies to achieveCalifornia’s climateand air qualitygoals.The Clean Power and ElectrificationPathway is an integrated approachthat builds on existing state programsand policies to achieve California’sclimate and air quality goals, whileensuring that an economy-widetransformation happens in an efficientand — importantly — affordableway. Using existing technologies,the Pathway calls for an electric gridwith more carbon-free energy, whichis used to clean other sectors ofthe economy. As the electric supplybecomes cleaner, every electric vehicleand electric space or water heaterbecomes cleaner over its lifespan.The Clean Power and ElectrificationPathway to 2030 is defined by threemeasures. Each measure is integratedwith — and depends upon — thesuccess of the other and should bepursued in concert:1. Continue carbon reductionin the electric sector: increaseenergy efficiency, provide 80percent carbon-free energythrough large-scale resources anduse distributed solar.2.3.Accelerate electrification of thetransportation sector, includingplacing at least 7 million light-dutypassenger vehicles on the roadsand supporting a transition tozero-emission trucks and transit.Increase electrification ofbuildings: electrify nearly onethird of residential and commercialspace and water heaters.Continue Carbon Reduction in theElectric SectorElectric sector measures, includingproviding 80 percent carbon-freeenergy from large-scale resources,and leveraging energy efficiencyand distributed solar will lower GHGemissions from 84 to 28 millionmetric tons (MMT)/year (Figure 4). Thisrepresents 31 percent of the 2030GHG reduction goal and aligns withCalifornia’s pillars for carbon reductionand decades of state energy policy.9Large-scale renewable energy islikely to be the most significant andaffordable means of decarbonizingthe electric supply. The transmissiongrid can provide 80 percent carbonfree energy from a combinationof renewable resources includingwind, solar and large hydroelectricFigure 4: GHG Reductions Across Sectors to Reach 2030 GoalsSouthern California Edison, November 20175
The Clean Power and Electrification Pathwaygenerators. This will require thedevelopment of up to 30 gigawatts(GW) of additional renewable capacity.California’s electric system canincorporate a high penetration oflarge-scale renewable resources byhaving a renewables portfolio that isdiverse in geography and resourceavailability, increasing transmissioncapacity, and enhancing integrationacross the western grid.Using a system that relies so heavily onvariable resources like wind and solarwill require up to 10 additional GW ofenergy storage from fixed and mobilesources to even out hourly, daily andseasonal energy imbalances (thedifferences between energy supplyand usage).Modernizing thedistribution gridwith availableand evolvingtechnologieswill.support ourcustomers’ desireto participate inthe clean energyfuture by makingtheir own energychoices.Even at today’s levels of renewables,these energy imbalances can resultin California’s infamous “duck curve”— the timing imbalance that existsbetween solar generation and dailypeak load.10 This creates two significantproblems for today’s electric grid: the excess supply of solar atmidday, which can lead to shuttingdown large-scale renewableresources or paying other statesto take our power; and the significant fast ramp-upin generation to reliably coverthe late afternoon and eveningelectricity need as the sun sets,solar generation fades andcustomer energy demands peak.The extremes of the duck curvecan be mitigated by the additionof energy storage at scale. Flexibleelectric vehicle charging could alsoprovide beneficial load shifting —effectively a form of mobile energystorage — that could make electricfueling more affordable. Nonetheless,the magnitude of the duck curveissues is expected to increase as6more renewables are added to thesystem, and some amount of gas-firedgeneration will be needed for servicereliability.Reducing or avoiding carbon inthe electric sector also requiresadvances to integrate the cleanenergy resources that customersare adopting. These resources onthe distribution grid are expected toinclude increased energy efficiency(consistent with SB350’s mandate todouble energy efficiency), rooftop andcommunity solar, and electric vehicles.Modernizing the distribution grid withavailable and evolving technologieswill allow these distributed energyresources to be better integratedand optimized, will improve systemreliability and safety, and will supportour customers’ desire to participatein the clean energy future by makingtheir own energy choices.Accelerate Electrification of theTransportation SectorThe GHG reduction potential ofthe Clean Power and ElectrificationPathway hinges on aggressiveelectrification of light-duty vehicles,i.e., the passenger cars, SUVs andpickup trucks that currently contributeone-quarter of California’s GHGemissions.11 The Pathway calls for atleast 24 percent of these vehicles — 7million — to be electrified by 2030.EVs charging from an increasinglyclean electric grid can help reducetransportation sector GHG emissionsfrom 169 to 111 MMT/year, one-thirdof the 2030 goal. Reduced gasolinedemand will also provide the benefitof reducing industrial emissions fromrefineries.Electrification of the transportationsector will greatly improve local airquality — an urgent community needacross California and particularly
in Southern California. Manycommunities, particularly DACs*, aresituated near heavily traveled freightcorridors, where the concentration ofair pollutants often exceeds healthbased standards.†Expanding transportationelectrification will requiresustainable policies andcollaboration betweenvehicle manufacturers,charging companies,policymakers and electricutilities on issues such ascharging standards andconsumer awareness.Medium- and heavy-duty vehiclescontribute to GHG emissions and arethe largest mobile source of smogforming emissions across the state.The Pathway calls for electrifying15 percent of medium-duty and 6percent of heavy-duty vehicles in thestate by 2030, supporting neededGHG reductions and improvementsin air quality. This will help Californiaposition itself for the 2050 GHG goal,which will require the elimination ofvirtually all vehicle emissions fromfossil fuels.12While these vehicle growth targets areambitious, they are not far outsideforecasts of rapid growth in the EVmarket.13 Growing customer interest,increasing availability and variety of EVmodels (Figure 5), and the favorableeconomics of using EVs for ridesharingand autonomous vehicles have madea high-EV future more plausible thanever. Nations such as the UnitedKingdom, France, Norway, India andChina have announced plans to phaseout internal combustion vehicleswithin coming decades. Manufacturersare responding; GM recently indicatedthat it expects the company’s entiremodel lineup to run on electricityin the future, and Volvo committedto eliminating traditional internalcombustion engines in favor of anelectric and hybrid fleet as early as2019.14Expanding transportationelectrification will require sustainablepolicies and collaboration betweenvehicle manufacturers, chargingcompanies, policymakers and electricutilities on issues such as chargingstandards and consumer awareness.15Figure 5: Battery/Partial Hybrid Electric Vehicle Models(Sources: U.S. Department of Energy/Consumer Reports)CalEPA uses the designation Disadvantaged Community (DAC); DACs represent the 25% highest scoring census tracts in CalEnviroScreen 3.0, alongwith other areas with high amounts of pollution and low-income populations.Electrification in areas such as the I-710 corridor between Long Beach and Los Angeles promotes environmental justice by insuring that climateinvestments provide near-term air quality benefits to a broad set of communities.*†Southern California Edison, November 20177
The Clean Power and Electrification PathwayContinued price incentives, fundedby the cap-and-trade and low carbonfuel standard programs, help to lowerup-front purchase costs and willhelp drive additional adoption, as willincreased selection and EV availability.Current codesand standardsare based onthe 20th centurypower-generationsupply frameworkdominated by fossilfuels.In order to support at least 7 millionelectric cars by 2030, California willneed to have over one million awayfrom-home charging ports.16 Thestate’s investor-owned and publicutilities have initiated charginginfrastructure pilots*17, but these pilotsalone will not meet the expected scaleof light-duty EV adoption. Fundingwill be needed to enable utilities andcharging companies to rapidly deploymore infrastructure and chargers.For medium- and heavy-duty vehiclesin urban areas with lower dailymileage, such as buses, deliveryvehicles and intermodal freighttrucks, electrification is already beingdeployed and can significantly reduceGHG emissions and improve airquality. Larger plug-in electric andplug-in hybrid electric trucks are indevelopment18 and will play a greaterrole in achieving California’s 2050climate and air quality goals. Earlydeployments must coincide with thedevelopment of adequate charginginfrastructure to support this criticalclean-transportation opportunity.Increase Electrification ofBuildingsSpace and water heating currentlycontributes more than two-thirdsof total residential and commercialbuilding GHG emissions. Electrifyingnearly one-third of residential andcommercial space and water heaters,in addition to increased energyefficiency and strong building codesand standards, could reduce GHGemissions from this sector from 49 to37 MMT/year, or 7 percent of the 2030goal.Expanding electrification of residentialand commercial buildings willrequire new policies and support.Collaboration between manufacturers,repair service providers andpolicymakers is needed to raiseawareness and increase availabilityof clean, efficient options for electri
through large-scale resources and use distributed solar. 2. Accelerate electrification of the transportation sector, including placing at least 7 million light-duty passenger vehicles on the roads and supporting a transition to zero-emission trucks and transit. 3. Increase electrification of buildings: electrify nearly one-third of residential .
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May 02, 2018 · D. Program Evaluation ͟The organization has provided a description of the framework for how each program will be evaluated. The framework should include all the elements below: ͟The evaluation methods are cost-effective for the organization ͟Quantitative and qualitative data is being collected (at Basics tier, data collection must have begun)
̶The leading indicator of employee engagement is based on the quality of the relationship between employee and supervisor Empower your managers! ̶Help them understand the impact on the organization ̶Share important changes, plan options, tasks, and deadlines ̶Provide key messages and talking points ̶Prepare them to answer employee questions
Dr. Sunita Bharatwal** Dr. Pawan Garga*** Abstract Customer satisfaction is derived from thè functionalities and values, a product or Service can provide. The current study aims to segregate thè dimensions of ordine Service quality and gather insights on its impact on web shopping. The trends of purchases have
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Electrification of Industry: Summary of Electrification Futures Study Industrial Sector Analysis Author: Colin McMillan Subject: This presentation provides context for electrification of the industrial sector and summarizes industrial analysis performed for the Electrification Futures Study. Created Date: 9/20/2018 10:30:39 AM
developed scenarios of electrification for each end-use sector based on exogenously defined rates of electrification and efficiency improvements for each end-use service. We then employ a highly detailed power sector model to study the impacts of electrification on the
