Postgraduate Student Mobility Trends To 2024
EducationIntelligencePostgraduate student mobility trends to2024October 2014 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.
ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY3INTRODUCTION4Drivers of international higher education4Report structure4METHODOLOGY6Forecasting model overview6Tertiary enrolment rate and total tertiary enrolment projections7Outbound mobile postgraduate projections8Inbound mobile postgraduate projections9Bilateral student flow projections9DRIVERS OF INTERNATIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION10Demographics10Economics12GROWTH IN TERTIARY ENROLMENTS15Forecasted tertiary enrolments to 202415Tertiary enrolment rate growth17OUTBOUND POSTGRADUATE STUDENT MOBILITY18Recent outbound postgraduate trends18Forecasted outbound postgraduate flows to 202420Forecasted outbound postgraduate flows to 2024 by origin market22Postgraduate outbound mobility and overall outbound mobility30INBOUND POSTGRADUATE STUDENT MOBILITY31Recent inbound postgraduate trends31Forecasted inbound postgraduate flows to 202432Forecasted inbound postgraduate flows to 2024 by destination market34BILATERAL POSTGRADUATE STUDENT MOBILITY40KEY FINDINGS42IN CONCLUSION44 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.2
Executive summaryPremiseThis report focuses on postgraduate mobility and builds upon the forecasts of two British Council forecasting reports,The shape of things to come: Higher education global trends and emerging opportunities to 2020 and The future ofthe world’s mobile students to 2024. This research forecasts key drivers of student mobility and postgraduate studentflows to 2024 and includes analysis of the largest inbound and outbound growth markets of the next decade.Data coverageFor this research, 23 outbound markets as well as six inbound markets were selected for analysis based on significancein the international higher education market, their tertiary and postgraduate market size (current and potential) anddata availability. Forecasts of student mobility took into account demographic and economic data for each market, aswell as historical trends and bilateral trade patterns; forecasts are based upon these indicators, for which there is dataavailable, and do not take into account other variables that may affect international student mobility in the future.Key forecasts In 2024, India will be home to the largest tertiary-aged population, numbering over 119 million China will become home to the second-largest tertiary-aged population, decreasing 30 million from 2012to equal 79 million in 2024 India will have the highest number of tertiary enrolments in 2024, numbering 48 million, followed by China(37 million), the US (22 million), and Indonesia (11 million) The strongest annual average growth in outbound postgraduate mobility will occur in Nigeria ( 8.3%),followed by India ( 7.5%), Indonesia ( 7.2%), Pakistan ( 6.4%) and Saudi Arabia ( 5.2%) India postgraduate outbound mobility will have a higher annual average growth rate through the nextdecade than China China will be the largest source of international postgraduate students in 2024, with total outboundpostgraduates to selected markets numbering 338,000, compared to India’s 209,000 To 2024, the US will remain the number one inbound postgraduate destination, hosting 407,000postgraduates, followed the by the UK, which will host 241,000, Germany (113,000 inboundpostgraduates) and Australia (112,000 inbound postgraduates) Australia and Canada are forecast to have the highest annual average growth in inbound postgraduatemobility, at 4.1 per cent each The US inbound postgraduate market is predicted to grow at four per cent annual average change The UK and Japan are expected to see slowed growth, at 3.5 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively In 2024, China is expected to account for 44 per cent of growth in inbound postgraduates to the UK andIndia is expected to account for 54 per cent of the US’ growth in inbound postgraduates Postgraduate bilateral flows from China and India to leading destination countries will remain the largestthrough 2024 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.3
IntroductionAs economies across the globe are becoming increasingly more integrated the need for an education that meets theneeds of a competitive, quickly-changing marketplace has intensified. As a result there has been substantive growthin undergraduate enrolments, which has followed the growth of ‘emerging’ economies most prominently in Asia. Theexperience of students who have studied abroad feeds back into both globalisation and economic development,whether university graduates ultimately return to their home countries or migrate to form part of the skilled workforcein the countries in which they studied, or even elsewhere.However, there has been a recent trend towards attaining even more advanced qualifications, a movement fuellednot only by individuals eager for better employment opportunities but by governments aiming to create more highlycompetent workforces. At the same time, universities need to attract talented students at the postgraduate level fora number of reasons, including the growing importance of research output in determining funding and positioningin international university rankings. The talent pool is increasingly seen as an international one in which rankeduniversities across the world are competing for the best students. In the majority of the eight leading countries thatwere studied for a recent Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE) report1, around a third of all highereducation awards are postgraduate, ranging from a low of 24.7 per cent in Spain to a high of 37.1 per cent in Scotland.The percentage of postgraduate research (PGR) to total postgraduate awards was much more varied, ranging from 8.6per cent in Australia to 31.4 per cent in Germany.Drivers of international higher educationEconomic and demographic data provide the best foundation upon which to base analysis and how these two driversmerge can often indicate the direction of international higher education’s future growth. However, with the naturalunpredictability of human interaction, no mathematical formula can account for all circumstances and possibilities;other considerations come into play that will affect a population’s capacity to fund overseas education. These driverswere discussed in greater detail in relation to student mobility in a previous British Council report, Megatrends: Thefuture of international education.It is additionally important to note that underpinning the growth of postgraduate students is the ‘massification’ ofhigher education, in which higher education is being made more available to a wider population. This increasedaccess initially prompted the growth in undergraduate degrees and now is helping propel a wave of students seekingadditional qualifications beyond the first degree. A growing middle class, the aspiration of students eager for prosperity,and demand for more advanced skills and knowledge in the workplace have all combined to make the mobility ofpostgraduate students a phenomenon worth examining. Ultimately, however, demographic and economic data remainthe most certain predictors of undergraduate and postgraduate enrolments through the next decade.Report structureThe report has seven sections:1. Methodology presents the methodology developed and used in the forecasting framework for theresearch2. Drivers of international higher education reviews the drivers for future growth in international highereducation, specifically the impact of demographic and economic trends on global demandInternational comparisons in postgraduate education: quality, access and employment outcomes.Report to HEFCE by Gillian Clarke and Ingrid Lunt, University of Oxford, September 2014.1 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.4
POSTGRADUATE STUDENT MOBILITY TRENDS TO 20243. Growth in tertiary enrolments presents the recent trends and projected future in domestic tertiaryenrolments for selected origin countries and territories4. Outbound postgraduate student mobility introduces the current landscape and forecasts foroutbound postgraduate student mobility to 20245. Inbound postgraduate student mobility reviews recent trends and projects future postgraduate flowsinto selected inbound markets6. Bilateral postgraduate student mobility presents the major current and forecasted bilateralpostgraduate flows to 20247. Key findings reviews the research and presents conclusions from the data 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.5
MethodologyThe British Council carried out this research with Oxford Economics from June to September, 2014.Forecasting model overviewDrawing from experience gained from previous student mobility forecasting work, including The shape of things tocome: Higher education global trends and emerging opportunities to 2020 and The future of the world’s mobile studentsto 2024, a bespoke model was constructed to forecast international postgraduate student mobility flows betweencountries and territories of interest.The model incorporates the latest available demographic, education and economic data and provides forecast bilateralpostgraduate student flows to 2024 between six destination markets and 23 origin markets, listed below. This listof both destination and origin markets was formed by analysis of markets of interest as well as the potential fastestgrowing origin and destination markets over the next decade; data availability also contributed to the decision-makingprocess. The British Council recognises that domestic postgraduate enrolments (alongside international postgraduateenrolments) are increasing in many countries and territories, and exclusion of a country from this study does not meanthat there is no potential for growth.Model market coverageDestination marketsAustraliaCanadaGermanyJapanUnited Kingdom (UK)United States (US)Origin lic of KoreaRussiaSaudi ArabiaSpainTaiwanThailandTurkeyUnited States (US)VietnamSource: British Council 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.6
POSTGRADUATE STUDENT MOBILITY TRENDS TO 2024Definitions and scope of researchThe model produces forecasts using the international student definition as opposed to the foreign student definition.International students are defined as students moving to another country for the express purpose of study versusforeign students who are defined as non-citizens of the country in which they are studying so may be permanentresidents of the country in which they are studying. For the purposes of analysing student mobility, the internationalstudent definition is more appropriate as not all foreign students are necessarily mobile students.As widely discussed2 within the international higher education sector, there are issues with regards to the comparabilityof student mobility data across countries and territories. The agencies responsible for student mobility data collectionwithin different countries and territories often use slightly different definitions when classifying international studentsand, in some cases, apply different methodologies when recording the origin country of students. While best effortshave been made to make all data sources comparable within this research, a degree of caution should be exercisedwhen comparing volumes of inbound student numbers across the six destination markets.Outbound postgraduate student flows from each of the 23 origin markets refer to postgraduate student flows into thesix destination markets of interest in this study. Therefore, students moving from origin markets of interest to otherdestination markets (outside the destination markets covered in this research) are not captured within the scope ofthis research. Similarly, inbound student flows to the destination markets of interest represent student flows from the23 origin markets of interest in this study and do not include inbound students coming from other origin marketsof interest. Moreover, the growth or contraction of inbound and outbound markets not selected for this research isoutside the scope of this research. Therefore, outbound and inbound student “totals” from this research should beinterpreted with this in mind.Tertiary enrolment rate and total tertiary enrolment projectionsTotal tertiary enrolments, inclusive of postgraduate enrolments, within a country are equal to the tertiary-agedpopulation multiplied by the tertiary enrolment rate. The UN Population Division’s populations by age projections wereused to determine the size of the tertiary-aged population within each country of interest. Tertiary enrolment rateshave historically shown strong correlation with GDP per capita (PPP exchange rate, real, US ) and that relationship,along with historic trends, is used to forecast each country’s tertiary enrolment rate to 2024. The UN populationprojections and the tertiary enrolment rate forecast are then combined to forecast the number of tertiary enrolments ineach country of interest to 2024.The forecast period is from 2013 to 2024 inclusive. At the time of publication, 2012 is the latest year of data for mostcountries published by UNESCO with relation to tertiary enrolment rates and levels.Forecasting tertiary enrolmentsTertiary-aged populationprojectionsSource: UN Population DivisionGross tertiary enrolmentrateSource: UNESCO, Oxford EconomicsTotal tertiary enrolmentsSource: UNESCO, Oxford EconomicsSource: Oxford Economics, British .php?story 20140130155355392 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.7
POSTGRADUATE STUDENT MOBILITY TRENDS TO 2024Outbound mobile postgraduate projectionsThe outbound mobility ratio reflects how likely students are to pursue their education abroad; in other words thisratio captures internationally mobile students coming from a country as a percentage of all tertiary students in that“sending” or “origin” country. Data were collected from national sources on the number of postgraduate internationalstudents studying in the six destination markets of interest from the 23 origin markets of interest. For each originmarket, the number of international students studying in the six destination markets was added together and divided bytotal tertiary enrolments in order to calculate an implied outbound postgraduate mobility ratio. This ratio reflects howlikely students from each of the origin markets are to pursue postgraduate education in the six destination markets ofinterest. It is important to note that for some of the shortlisted countries and territories information on mobile tertiarystudent flows is not well recorded and this lack of data may limit the forecasting of mobile tertiary students in certaincountries and territories.The outbound postgraduate mobility ratio for each origin country was then forecast to 2024 using historic trends andits relationship with two key drivers: Local currency: the strength or weakness of an origin market’s local currency affects the cost of studyingabroad. That is, if a country’s currency depreciates in value, international study becomes more expensive(in local currency terms) and therefore less affordable to students. By contrast, if a country’s currencyappreciates in value, international study becomes less expensive (in local currency terms), and so moreaffordable and appealing to students. Ratio of households with income greater than US 35,000 (constant prices) to total tertiary enrolments:affordability and household incomes are an important determinant of the demand for internationalstudy. Analysis by Oxford Economics has shown that the ratio of households with income greater thanUS 35,000 (constant prices) to total tertiary enrolments is positively correlated with the outboundmobility ratio.The forecast outbound postgraduate mobility ratio for each origin country is then applied to the forecast total tertiaryenrolments in order to generate the forecast total number of postgraduate outbound international students from eachorigin country studying in the six destination markets of interest.The forecast period is from 2013 to 2024 inclusive. At the time of publication, 2012 is the latest year of data for mostcountries published by UNESCO with relation to tertiary enrolment rates and levels.Forecasting total outbound postgraduate studentsOutbound internationalpostgraduatesSource: National sourcesOutbound postgraduatemobility ratioSource: Oxford EconomicsTotal tertiary enrolmentsSource: UNESCO, Oxford EconomicsTotal tertiary enrolmentsSource: UNESCO, Oxford EconomicsOutbound postgraduatemobility ratioSource: Oxford EconomicsTotal outboundpostgraduatesSource: National sources, Oxford EconomicsSource: Oxford Economics, British Council 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.8
POSTGRADUATE STUDENT MOBILITY TRENDS TO 2024Inbound mobile postgraduate projectionsWhereas the outbound mobile student forecasts are based on tertiary enrolments within a single country and itsoutbound mobility ratio, inbound mobile student forecasts essentially require the summation of outbound mobilestudent flows from all origin markets to the particular destination market in question. In other words, the change ininbound mobile student flows for destination markets is driven by the volume of outbound mobile students from keyorigin markets and the destination patterns of students from these origin markets. For some of the shortlisted countriesand territories, information on inbound mobile tertiary student flows is not well recorded and this issue may limit theforecasting of inbound mobile tertiary students in certain countries and territories.It has nonetheless been possible to produce inbound tertiary student forecasts for the six selected markets. Whilethe flows include shortlisted countries and territories only, in many cases this covers a sufficiently high share of originmarkets to be representative of future flows. Origin market destinations are forecast on the basis of current patternsand trends, plus forecast trends in bilateral trade.Bilateral student flow projectionsTo forecast bilateral student flows, the forecast total number of outbound international postgraduate students fromeach origin country studying in the six destination markets of interest is then distributed amongst the six destinationmarkets of interest according to historic trends in destination patterns and the forecast nature of bilateral merchandisetrade flows between the origin and destination markets, according to Oxford Economics’ global trade model. Bilateraltrade flows have historically been closely linked to bilateral student flows and so are key drivers of this aspect ofthe model. Bilateral services trade data are unavailable for many countries and territories and so only bilateralmerchandise trade data are included in the model.The forecast period is from 2013 to 2024 inclusive. At the time of publication, 2012 is the latest year of data for mostcountries published by UNESCO with relation to tertiary enrolment rates and levels.Forecasting bilateral postgraduate student flowsCanadaOutbound mGermanyJapanSource: National sources, Oxford EconomicsAustraliaSource: Oxford Economics, British Council 2014 British Council. All rights reserved.9
Drivers of international highereducationDemographics and economics are among the most influential factors shaping the landscape of international highereducation through the next decade. Both these drivers serve as a base when forecasting student mobility as they arerelatively easy to quantify and forecast.DemographicsDemographic drivers, specifically tertiary-aged populations, will drive the higher education market by directly affectingrecruitment, enrolments and mobility. There is a clear positive correlation between the number of 18 to 22 year oldsand the number of tertiary enrolments, inclusive of postgraduate enrolments, in a countr
The shape of things to come: Higher education global trends and emerging opportunities to 2020 and The future of the world’s mobile students to 2024. This research forecasts key drivers of student mobility and postgraduate student flows to 2024 and includes analysis of the larges
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