Bio-based Building Blocks And Polymers In The World

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the World www.bio-based.eu/marketsThe most dynamic development is foreseenfor drop-in bio-based polymers, but this isclosely followed by new bio-based polymers.Drop-in bio-based polymers are spearheadedby partly bio-based PET, whose productioncapacity was around 600,000 tonnes in 2013and is projected to reach about 7 million tonnesby 2020, using bio-ethanol from sugar cane.Bio-based PET production is expanding athigh rates worldwide, largely due to the PlantPET Technology Collaborative (PTC) initiativelaunched by The Coca-Cola Company. Thesecond most dynamic development is foreseenfor polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), which, contraryto bio-based PET, are new polymers, but stillhave similar growth rates to those of bio-basedPET. PLA and bio-based PUR are showingimpressive growth as well: their productioncapacities are expected to almost quadruplebetween 2013 and 2020.Here are some details on each bio-basedpolymer covered in the report:Epoxies are approximately 30% bio-based(only bio-based carbon content2 considered inthis report) and are produced out of bio-basedepichlorohydrin. The market is well establishedand is not expected to grow much since epoxieshave already long been partly bio-based.Polyurethanes (PUR) can be 10% to 100% biobased. PUR are produced from natural oil polyols(NOP). Bio-based succinic acid can be used toreplace adipic acid. The global PUR market(including petro-based PUR) is continuouslygrowing but the bio-based PUR market isexpected to grow faster.Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is currently20% bio-based and produced out of bio-basedmonoethylene glycol (MEG) and terephthalicacid (TPA) as a drop-in bio-based polymer.TPA is currently still petro-based but subject toongoing R&D. Bio-based TPA can be producedat pilot scale. Most bio-based PET and MEG areproduced in Asia. Bio-based PET is one of theleaders of the bio-based polymers market and isslated to become the bio-based polymer with thebiggest production capacity by far. This is largelydue to the Plant PET Technology Collaborative(PTC) initiative launched by The Coca ColaCompany.Bio-based epoxies, PUR, CA and PET have hugeproduction capacities with a well establishedmarket in comparison with other bio-basedpolymers. However, other bio-based polymerslisted on Figure 6 show strong growth as well.Figure 6 shows the evolution of worldwideproduction capacities only for selected biobased polymers (without bio-based epoxies,PUR, CA and PET). Some of these polymers arebrand new bio-based polymers. That is why theirmarkets are smaller and need to be developedcorrespondingly. 2015 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2015-0532.5Cellulose acetate (CA) is 50% bio-based.This market is similar to that of epoxies: wellestablished, for example cigarette filters aremade from CA, with small growth.2 B io-based carbon content: fraction of carbon derived in a product (EN 16575 Bio-based products frombiomass– Vocabulary)8 Selected bio-based polymers: Evolution of worldwide productioncapacities from 2011 to 2020million t/aThis bio-based share of overall polymerproduction has been growing over the years: itwas 1.5% in 2011 (3.5 million tonnes bio-basedfor a global production of 235 million tonnes).With an expected total polymer production ofabout 400 million tonnes in 2020, the bio-basedshare should increase from 2% in 2013 to morethan 4% in 2020, meaning that bio-basedproduction capacity will grow faster than overallproduction.Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the Worldwww.bio-based.eu/markets 2actual dataforecast1.510.5201120122013PTTPBAT 20142015PEFPA-Institut.eu AFull study available at www.bio-based.eu/marketsFigure 6: Selected bio-based polymers: Evolution of worldwide production capacities from 2011 to 2020Polytrimethylene terephthalate (PTT) is27% bio-based and made out of bio-based1,3-propanediol (1,3-PDO) and currently petrobased TPA. PTT is similar to PET since bothhave TPA as precursor. Bio-based PTT and 1,3PDO are produced by one leading company,DuPont. The market is well established and isnot expected to grow much.Polyethylene furanoate (PEF) is 100% biobased and is produced out of bio-based2,5-furandicarboxylic acid (2,5-FDCA) and MEG.PEF is a brand new polymer, which is expectedto enter the market in 2017. Just as PTT, PEFis similar to PET. Both PEF and PET are usedin bottle production, however PEF is said tohave better properties, such as better barrierproperties, than PET. Technology companyAvantium is heavily involved in the developmentof PEF and is planning to introduce PEF to themarket in 2017.Ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber(EPDM) is made out of bio-based ethyleneand can be 50% to 70% bio-based. Specialtychemicals company Lanxess is currentlyproducing bio-based EPDM in Brazil. The marketis small and is not expect to grow in the comingyears.Polyethylene (PE) is a 100% bio-based drop-inpolymer. The bio-based building block needed isbio-based ethylene, which is made out of sugarcane. Brazilian petrochemical company Braskemproduces bio-based PE in Brazil. Bio-based PEhas been on the market for a few years but itsproduction capacity has hitherto remained thesame. Further developments have been sloweddown because of the shale gas boom. 2015 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2015-05 9

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the World www.bio-based.eu/marketswww.bio-based.eu/markets Polybutylene succinate (PBS) is biodegradableand currently mostly fossil-based but could intheory be 100% bio-based. PBS is producedfrom 1,4-butanediol (1,4-BDO) and succinic acid.Both building blocks are available bio-based but1,4-BDO is not commercially available yet; thisis expected in 2015. PBS is currently producedexclusively in Asia. It is expected to grow andprofit from the availability and lower cost of biobased succinic acid.Bio-based building blocks as a precursorof bio-based polymersPolyamides (PA) are a big family since there aremany different types of polyamides. This explainsthe wide range of bio-based carbon content: from40% to 100%. Polyamides are generally basedon sebacic acid, which is produced from castoroil. Evonik has recently developed a polyamidebased on palm kernel oil. The market, which isexpected to grow moderately, is headed by onebig player, Arkema.Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) are 100% biobased and biodegradable even in cold seawater. PHA are produced through a fermentationprocess mainly by specific bacteria. Manydifferent companies are involved in theproduction of PHA. The market is currently verysmall but is expected to grow tremendously. Thejoint venture Telles, set by Metabolix and ADMin 2006, aimed at big capacity but hardly soldany PHA and subsequently collapsed in 2012.PHA are brand new polymers, which meanstheir market still needs time to fully develop.10 Starch blends are completely biodegradable and25% to 100% bio-based, with starch added toone or several biodegradable polymers. Manyplayers are involved in the production of starchblends but Italian company Novamont is currentlymarket leader. The market is expected to keepon growing, with production capacity projectedto double between 2013 and 2020.For the first time, the production capacities ofsome major building blocks have been reportedin the market study. The total production capacityof the bio-based building blocks reviewed inthis study was 2 million tonnes in 2013 and isexpected to reach 4.4 million tonnes in 2020,which means a CAGR of almost 12%. Themost dynamic developments are spearheadedby succinic acid and 1,4-BDO, with MEG as adistant runner-up. Figure 7 shows the evolutionof worldwide production capacities for somemajor building blocks.Polylactic acid (PLA) is 100% bio-basedand biodegradable but only under certainconditions: PLA is industrially compostable.Produced by numerous companies worldwide,with NatureWorks as market leader, PLA is themost well established new bio-based polymer.However, the PLA market is still expected togrow further, with a projected fourfold growthbetween 2013 and 2020. PLA can already befound at near-comparable prices to fossil-basedpolymers.654actual dataIn short, the most dynamic development isexpected for bio-based PET, with a projectedproduction capacity of about 7 million tonnesby 2020. Second in the drop-in polymers groupare bio-based polyurethanes. Regardless, newbio-based polymers such as PLA and PHAare showing impressive growth as well: PLAproduction capacity is expected to almostquadruple and PHA production capacity isexpected to grow tenfold between 2013 and2020.Detailed information on the development of biobased PET and PLA and other polymers can befound in the full report.Bio-based MEG, L-lactic acid (L-LA), ethyleneand epichlorohydrin are relatively well establishedon the market. These bio-based building blockscover most of the total production capacity. Theyare expected to keep on growing, especiallybio-based MEG and ethylene, whereas L-LAand bio-based epichlorohydrin are projected togrow at lower rate. However, the most dynamicdevelopments are spearheaded by succinic acidand 1,4-BDO. Both are brand new drop-in biobased building blocks on the market. The firstfacilities are currently running and more will bebuilt in the coming years.Selected bio-based building blocks: Evolution of worldwideproduction capacities from 2011 to 2020million t/aPoly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT)is also currently mostly fossil-based. PBAT isproduced from 1,4-BDO, TPA and adipic acid.PBAT is biodegradable. PBAT can theoreticallybe up to 50% bio-based since bio-based adipicacid is not available yet. It is still at the researchstage. PBAT has mostly been produced by onebig company, BASF, but a new player, JinhuiZhaolongHigh Technology, entered the marketand another one, Samsung Fine Chemicals,which has a relatively small production capacityat the moment, is planning to extend itsproduction capacity.Nevertheless PHA producers and several newplayers are optimistic and see potential in PHA.Therefore, production capacity is expected tohave grown tenfold by 2020.Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the Worldforecast32120112012MEG1,4-BDO -Institut.eu Epichlorohydrin2,3-BDO201820192020Succinic acid2,5 FDCAD-LAFull study available at www.bio-based.eu/marketsFigure 7: Selected bio-based building blocks: Evolution of worldwide production capacities from 2011 to 2020 2015 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2015-05 2015 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2015-05 11

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the World www.bio-based.eu/marketsHere are some details on each bio-based buildingblock covered in the report:Monoethylene glycol (MEG) is one of PET’sbuilding blocks. Bio-based MEG is a dropin which is mostly produced in Asia. The veryfast increase in bio-based PET production hashad a considerable impact on the productioncapacities of bio-based MEG. Bio-based PETactually leads the bio-based polymers group,which is largely due to the Plant PET TechnologyCollaborative (PTC) initiative launched by TheCoca-Cola Company.L-Lactic acid (L-LA) is PLA’s building block,together with D-lactic acid (D-LA). Both areoptical isomers of LA. L-LA is much more commonthan D-LA since D-LA is more complicated toproduce. Lactide is an intermediate between LAand PLA. It can be bought as such to producePLA. A lot of different companies are involved inthis business worldwide since most LA has longbeen used in the food industry as, among otherthings, a food preservative, pH regulator andflavouring agent. The production capacities donot only include LA used for polymer production,but also for the food industry. It is estimatedthat more than a half of LA is used by the foodindustry.Ethylene is PE’s building block. Bio-basedethylene is currently made from sugar cane inBrazil. Further developments have slowed downbecause of a sudden extreme price drop in petrobased ethylene that happened due to the shalegas boom.Epichlorohydrin is one of the building blocks ofepoxies. Glycerin, which is a by-product of theproduction of biodiesel, is used as feedstock.www.bio-based.eu/markets Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the WorldSuccinic acid is a very versatile building block.Bio-based polymers such as PBS can be madeof succinic acid but also other bio-based buildingblocks such as 1,4-BDO. It can be used as wellin PUR to replace adipic acid. However, themarket still has to be developed. Petro-basedsuccinic acid is not a big market since petrobased succinic acid is relatively expensive. Biobased succinic acid is actually cheaper than itspetro-based counterpart. The first facilities havebeen running since 2013 and the next ones arealready in the pipeline.1,4-Butanediol (1,4-BDO) is also a versatilebuilding block. At the moment no facility ableto produce commercial quantities is running butthe first one is expected in 2015. 1,4-BDO candirectly be produced from biomass or indirectlyfrom succinic acid. Since bio-based succinic isrelatively new to the market, this partly explainswhy 1,4-BDO is still not commercially available.2,3-Butanediol (2,3-BDO) is another isomer ofbutanediol. Global Bio-Chem Technology Group,based in China, is currently producing 2,3-BDO,which they obtain by processing corn.1,3-Propanediol (1,3-PDO) is one of PTT’sbuilding blocks. 1,3-PDO is mostly producedfrom corn by DuPont. The market is wellestablished and is not expected to grow much.2,5-Furandicarboxylic acid (2,5-FDCA) can becombined with MEG to produce polyethylenefuranoate (PEF). 2,5-FDCA is a brand newbuilding block which is expected to come to themarket in 2017. Avantium is deeply involved in2,5-FDCA but others are also showing interest.Detailed information on the development of biobased building blocks can be found in the fullreport.Figure 8: Global production capacities of bioplastics in 2013(by region) (European Bioplastics 2014)Figure 9: Global production capacities of bioplastics in 2018(by region) (European Bioplastics 2014)Investment by regionmarket shares are expected to shift dramatically.Asia is predicted to experience most of thedevelopments in the field of bio-based buildingblock and polymer production, while Europe andNorth America are slated to lose more than ahalf and just over three quarters of their shares,respectively.Most investment in new bio-based polymercapacities will take place in Asia because ofbetter access to feedstock and a favourablepolitical framework. Figures 8 and 9 show the2013 and 2018 global production capacitiesfor bio-based polymers repartitioned by region.European Bioplastics published these marketdata, which take into account fewer types ofbio-based polymers than nova-Institute. Due tothe complexity of the manufacturing value chainstructure of epoxies, PUR and cellulose acetate,the repartitions by region cannot be reliablydetermined for all bio-based polymers. As aresult, a graph representing the repartition byregion with nova-Institute’s scope is not providedin the report, but only for the subgroup selectedby European Bioplastics.Europe’s share is projected to decrease from17.3% to 7.6%, and North America’s share isset to fall from 18.4% to 4.3%, whereas Asia’sis predicted to increase from 51.4% to 75.8%.South America is likely to remain constant witha share at around 12%. In other words, world12 2015 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2015-05Production capacities in EuropeFigure 10 shows the evolution of productioncapacities in Europe without bio-basedthermosets (epoxies and PUR) and celluloseacetate.Europe’s position in producing bio-basedpolymers is limited to just a few polymers. Europehas so far established a solid position mainlyin the field of starch blends and is expectedto remain strong in this sector for the next fewyears. Nevertheless, a number of developmentsand investments are foreseen in Europe. PLAproduction capacities, especially starch blendproduction capacities, are predicted to grow. Thegrowth of these increased production capacitiesfor starch blends can be traced back to Italy’sNovamont, a leading company in this field. 2015 nova-Institut GmbH, Version 2015-05 13

Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the World www.bio-based.eu/marketswww.bio-based.eu/markets One noteworthy finding of other studies is thatEurope shows the strongest demand for biobased polymers, while production tends to takeplace elsewhere, namely in Asia. In Europe,bio-based polymer production facilities forPLA are not only small in size but also small innumber. On the other hand, bio-based PA andCA production is based in Europe and is likelyto continue supplying for the growing marketsof the building and construction and automotivesectors. Europe does have industrial productionfacilities for PBAT which is still fully fossil-based.However, judging by industry announcementsand the ever-increasing capacity of its biobased precursors, PBAT is expected to beincreasingly bio-based, with a projected 50%share by 2020. Housing the leading chemicalcorporations, Europe is particularly strong andhas great potential in the fields of high value finechemicals and building blocks for the productionMarket segmentsof inter alia bio-based PA, PUR and thermosets.However, only few specific, large-scale plans forbio-based building blocks incorporating concreteplans for the production of bio-based polymershave been announced to date.The European Union’s relatively weak position inthe production of bio-based polymers is largelythe consequence of an unfavourable politicalframework. In contrast to bioenergy and biofuels,there is no European policy framework to supportbio-based polymers, whereas bioenergy andbiofuels receive strong and ongoing supportduring commercial production (quotas, taxincentives, green electricity regulations, marketintroduction programs, etc.). Without comparablesupport, bio-based chemicals and polymers willsuffer further from underinvestment by the privatesector. It is currently much safer and much moreattractive to invest in bio-based polymers in Asia,South America and even North America.Bio-based Building Blocks and Polymers in the WorldThe packaging industry consumes most petrobased polymers. For bio-based polymers, thesame trend can be observed: the major part ofthis as rigid packaging (bottles for example) andthe rest as flexible packaging (films for example).These uses cannot come as a surprise, sincebio-based PET is one of the biggest bio-basedpolymers in terms of capacity and is mostlyused for the production of bottles. On the otherhand, the packaging industry has a considerableinterest in biodegradability since packaging isonly needed for short times but in big quantities,which contributes to the accumulation of waste.It should be understood that not all bio-basedpolymers are biodegradable but some importantones are, e.g. PHA, PLA and starch blends.This feature is also interesting for agricultureand hor

includes bio-based shares at different levels. The bio-based share for structural polymers, which are the focus of the study, is 2%. For polymers overall, however, the bio-based share is even higher (8.3%) because of the higher bio-based shares in rubber (natural rubber) and man-made fibres (mainly cellulosic fibres). In 2011,