4 · British Columbia - NRCan
4 · British Columbia
CHAPTER 4:BRITISH COLUMBIALEAD AUTHORS:DIRK NYLAND 1JOEL R. NODELMAN 2CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR:JIM BARNES (BRITISH COLUMBIA MINISTRY OFTRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE)RECOMMENDED CITATION:Nyland, D., and Nodelman, J.R. (2017). British Columbia.In K. Palko and D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Climate risks andadaptation practices for the Canadian transportation sector2016 (pp. 66-103). Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada.12British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure, Victoria, BCNodelcorp Consulting Inc.
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016TABLE OF CONTENTSKey findings .0Historic Climate Impacts.87Future Climate Risks.90Adaptation Practices.90Air Transport.936.16.26.37.0Historic Climate Impacts.80Future Climate Risks.83Adaptation Practices .86Rail Transport.875.15.25.36.0Roads .76Rail.78Air.78Marine .79Road Systems.804.14.24.35.0Observed Trends .73Projected Changes .74Overview of British Columbia’s Transportation System.763.13.23.33.44.0Population.69Economy .70Geography.71Historical Climate Impacts.93Future Climate Risks.95Adaptation Practices.96Marine Transport.967.17.27.3Historical Climate Impacts.96Future Climate Risks.97Adaptation Practices.978.0Provincial Climate Adaptation Practices.989.0Information and Knowledge Gaps that Constrain Decision-making.9910.0 Conclusion.100References.101CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA67
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016KEY FINDINGS Transportation systems in British Columbia have demonstrated vulnerability to extreme weatherand changes in climate. Impacts of particular concern include those associated with:--Extreme precipitation, such as atmospheric river (Pineapple Express) events, affecting roadand rail networks, marine transportation lanes, and airport facilities;--Sea level rise and storm surge, increasing the risks of flooding and damage to fixed coastalinfrastructure, including Vancouver International Airport, Sandspit Airport on Haida Gwaii, andthe Port of Vancouver;--High winds, affecting marine transportation lanes; and,--Visibility issues, affecting airport operations, particularly in the British Columbia interior. Land transportation routes within British Columbia often occupy restricted corridors throughmountains and along coastlines. In these settings, flooding (associated with extreme precipitationor snowmelt) and slope failures have resulted in infrastructure failures to road and rail systems inthe past. Events that have affected one of these modes have typically also affected the other. While previous efforts to reduce climate risks to transportation systems were often reactive, andbased on historical information, there is indication that this is changing. Transportation entitiesare now inclined to become involved in broader future focused climate change studies and toincorporate these finding into their systems. Climate change vulnerability assessments and revised and updated infrastructure design criteriacan improve planning and adaptation efforts for British Columbia’s transportation infrastructure.The provincial government has conducted vulnerability assessments for highway systems andcontinues to monitor and assess sea level rise. The British Columbia Ministry of Transportation andInfrastructure is one of the first jurisdictions to require infrastructure design work for the ministry toinclude climate change implications. Given the interconnectedness of transportation networks in British Columbia, there is opportunity toshare research, risk analysis, and adaptation best practices across modes.1.0 INTRODUCTIONBritish Columbia is Canada’s third-largest and most westerly province, encompassing more than 95million hectares of land and freshwater (10% of Canada’s land surface) and 27,200 km of coastline(KnowBC, 2016). Its geography is rugged – vast, snow-covered mountain ranges stretch along thecoast and through eastern and southern regions of the province, while the central interior andnortheast are characterized by valleys and broad plains. Provincial transportation systems mustcontend with many shoreline inlets, tight corridors traversing mountain ranges with few major passes,and long distances between population centres. Economic activity and opportunity is distributedacross the province, as are populations and transportation networks.As part of the Pacific Rim, British Columbia’s transportation network provides a key link betweenNorth America and Asia and facilitates the movement of people and goods to support provincial,national, and international trade. In this context, British Columbia requires aviation, marine, road,and rail infrastructure that is resilient, effective, and efficient. While infrastructure in British Columbia isdesigned to withstand certain types of weather and climate conditions, building and maintaining aviable transportation system in the context of projected changes in climate – including temperature,precipitation, patterns of extreme weather, and other variables – is essential. Transportation systemsCHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA68
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016in the province demonstrate vulnerability to both extreme weather events and incremental changesin climate conditions. While difficulties persist in identifying the location and criticality of infrastructurevulnerabilities and communicating them to decision-makers, progress is evident in advancing climateadaptation broadly.This chapter examines the interactions and vulnerabilities of transportation infrastructure and operationsto changes in weather and climate in British Columbia. It has a strong focus on engineering approachesto climate adaptation in the transportation sector. The science and practice of adaptation is a relativelynew undertaking in the engineering field, with the consideration of future climate conditions remaining achallenge and new way of thinking for engineering professionals (see Box).ADAPTING ENGINEERING PRACTICES TO CLIMATE CHANGEWhile engineers have long considered climate related parameters in engineering design work, this has usuallymeant looking back at historic trends. Given the current rate of climate change, this is no longer a reliableapproach. Provincial Professional Engineering Associations are responding by adding new professionalrequirements to ensure that potential climate change impacts are taken into account in the design processfor the service life expected of the infrastructure. This is a cultural change for agencies responsible forinfrastructure, consultants carrying out engineering design work and clients commissioning the work. It isexpected that future engineering work related to new infrastructure design and rehabilitation will reflect suchaction and progress.Due to the newness of this field and current limitations of climate models in providing information to engineeringdesigners, many questions cannot yet be answered. For example, a particular climate parameter like extremewind will have a significant effect on the future functionality and safety of a bridge being designed today.Anticipating how this parameter may behave 75 years from now is a level of uncertainty most engineeringdesigners have not had to deal with before.It will take time for engineers to develop procedures and processes to adequately deal with climate change,and maximize the likelihood that infrastructure being constructed today remains safe and effective for publicuse for the whole of its design life.1.1 POPULATIONAs of October 2014, British Columbia had a population of 4.7 million (Government of British Columbia,2015a). The population is growing and becoming more urban, with the greatest growth in GreaterVancouver (Government of British Columbia, 2015b). In 1981, 22% of British Columbia’s populationresided in rural areas and by 2011 this had declined to 14% (Statistics Canada, 2011). While the totalnumber of rural residents remained relatively constant over that period, at around 600,000, urbanpopulation grew from 2.1 million to 3.8 million.Most of the province’s population is concentrated in southern coastal areas (Figure 1). The Capital Cityof Victoria on southern Vancouver Island has a population of 327,000, while Greater Vancouver on thesouthern mainland of the province has a population of 2.4 million and comprises almost 60% of theprovince’s population (Government of British Columbia, 2015b).CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA69
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016Figure 1: 2006 British Columbia Population Densities. The large population centres are located on the southcoast, while mountainous and northern areas are very sparsely populated. (Source: Statistics Canada)1.2 ECONOMYIn 2013, British Columbia had a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 215 billion, which represents about13% of Canada’s GDP (Statistics Canada, 2011). Historically, British Columbia’s economic activitywas based around natural resources including forestry, mining and fishing. While these sectors are stillimportant, the service sector has grown in importance, now accounting for four out of five jobs. Keyservice sectors include: finance, insurance, real estate, transportation, retail and wholesale trade,tourism, education, and manufacturing.British Columbia’s economy depends heavily on trade, including international and interprovincial importsand exports (Table 1). Trade within the Asian Pacific region has increased significantly since 2001. With thegrowth of China as a global manufacturing centre, demand for British Columbia’s natural resources hasincreased. In 2011 British Columbia exported more to the Pacific Rim than to the United States.Increased demand from China and India have challenged British Columbia’s transportationinfrastructure to meet these emerging opportunities. This infrastructure has played a key role ininternational trade due to its strategic location. For example, Prince Rupert, Canada’s closest port tothe Asia Pacific Rim, saves up to 68 hours of shipping time compared to locations to the south, such asLong Beach in Los Angeles (Port of Prince Rupert, 2014).Table 1: International and interprovincial trade in British Columbia in 2013. (Source: StatisticsCanada, 2015a)ValuePercentage of ProvincialGDPInternational 49.2 billion23%Interprovincial 35.7 billion17%International 57.8 billion27%Interprovincial 41.8 billion19%Trade ElementExportsImportsCHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA70
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 20161.3 GEOGRAPHYBritish Columbia’s unique landscape strongly influences the province’s transportation systems(Figure 2). Ground transportation routes generally follow river routes and mountain passes, ratherthan the straight-line alignments typical of many other areas of Canada. Thus, routes can becircuitous and often involve significant changes in elevation.British Columbia includes ten ecoprovinces, defined as part of a provincial ecoregion classificationsystem (Figure 3). Ecoprovinces are areas with consistent climate processes, oceanography, reliefand regional landforms. Each has a unique climate and they exhibit different sensitivities to projectedclimate changes. The ecoprovinces generally align with the physiographic features of the province,as do the major transportation corridors. With this understanding, it is possible to evaluate howclimate change trends in British Columbia may affect transportation systems based on generalizedclimate change projections for relevant ecoprovinces within the province.Figure 2: Physiological features of BritishColumbia. (Source: Encyclopedia of BritishColumbia and KnowBC.com)CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIAFigure 3: Ecoprovinces of British Columbia:Climatic zones of British Columbia. (Source:British Columbia Ministry of Transportation andInfrastructure)71
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 20162.0 CLIMATEBritish Columbia’s diverse landscape, including major mountain ranges, and proximity to the PacificOcean, strongly influence climate regimes in different parts of the province (Pacific Climate ImpactsConsortium, 2013a). An important aspect of British Columbia’s climate is a phenomenon known as“atmospheric rivers” that are associated with very heavy precipitation, and have had significantimpacts on transportation systems. Atmospheric rivers are long narrow streams of high water vapourconcentrations in the atmosphere that move moisture from tropical regions towards the poles acrossthe mid latitudes. Pineapple Express is a term used to characterize an atmospheric river with originsin the western Pacific, east of Hawaii, flowing to and affecting the West Coast of North Americabetween British Columbia and California (Figure 4). Atmospheric rivers are typically several hundredkilometers wide and thousands of kilometers long, and contain between 3 cm and 6 cm of watervapour in the middle of the stream (Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2013a).Atmospheric rivers occur most frequently in the fall and winter in British Columbia. Their impacts aregreatest on coastal areas when the moist water vapor laden air rises over the Coast Mountains, resultingin intense precipitation. The impacts have been significant, for example, the January 2009 extremeevent shown in Figure 4 lasted two days and cost nearly 16 million, while another two-day event inJune 2011 resulted in flooding and cost more than 85 million. In 2012, 15 registered flooding eventsaffected over 100 communities in British Columbia (Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2013a).Figure 4: Atmospheric River striking British Columbia on January 8, 2009. The colours in the imagebelow represent “water vapour” in the middle to upper layers of the atmosphere. The shades ofwhite to green are moist to cloudy and the shades of blue to yellow indicate increasingly dry areas.(Source: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin – Madison)CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA72
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 20162.1 OBSERVED TRENDSThe Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium has done extensive work characterizing the current climate,identifying trends, and projecting future climate conditions for many regions in British Columbia. Thesereports provide an analysis of trends across the province for the period 1901 through 2009 (Table 2).Over this period, British Columbia has experienced shifts in both temperature and precipitation. Thesetrends have accelerated since the 1950s. Overall, temperature across the province has increasedby 0.18 C per decade since 1951, an overall increase of 1 C. At the same time, the province hasexperienced generally wetter spring, summer, and autumn periods and significantly drier winters.Table 2: Temperature and precipitation trends in British Columbia by ecoprovince. (Source: PacificClimate Impacts Consortium, 2013b)EcoprovinceTemperature Trends( C per Decade)1901–20091951–2009Central Interior0.13Southern Interior Mountains0.12Precipitation Trends(mm/season per 16547.7-12Taiga Plains/Boreal Plains0.220.253.322.3-1Sub Boreal Interior0.190.253.733.3-3Northern Boreal Mountains0.160.21342.3-5Georgia Depression0.120.204.765-13Southern Interior0.120.214.336.7-6Coast and Mountains0.130.18388-6Provincial Average0.130.183.333.674.33-5.44SSA Spring, Summer, AutumnW WinterRelative sea level (relative to land height), has also been changing in British Columbia, with significantvariability across coastal areas. For example, during the past 50 years, sea level rose by 3.1 cmat Victoria and 2.0 cm at Vancouver, but decreased by 8.4 cm at Tofino (Vadeboncoeur, 2016). Anumber of factors contribute to changes in ocean levels, including atmospheric and oceanographiceffects, such as storm surges and climate-variability cycles (e.g., Pacific decadal oscillation)(Vadeboncoeur, 2016). One of the dominant factors affecting relative sea-level change in BritishColumbia is vertical land motion, which can be attributed to a combination of tectonic activity(interactions of the Juan de Fuca and Pacific oceanic plates with the North American plate), glacialisostatic adjustment (the ongoing movement of land that was once covered by glaciers from thelast ice age), and changes in ice-mass in the Coast Mountains and Gulf of Alaska (Vadeboncoeur,2016). Other factors that contribute to regional variability in sea levels include the influence of meltingglaciers on nearby ocean waters and ocean surface topography alterations due to changes toocean currents (Vadeboncoeur, 2016).In addition to posing a long-term threat of coastal flooding, sea-level rise increases the risk of stormsurge flooding. Deeper water increases the height and energy of waves. Extreme high water levels,which typically occur as storm surges are superimposed on high tides, can be particularly destructiveto coastal infrastructure.CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA73
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 20162.2 PROJECTED CHANGESThe Plan2Adapt tool (Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2013c), developed by the PacificClimate Impacts Consortium, provides generalized climate change projections for BritishColumbia for three time horizons as well as for each of the ecoprovince designations based ona standard set of climate model projections (Tables 3 and 4). Projections are broadly consistentwith observed climate trends (see Section 2.1). Overall, the climate in British Columbia will shiftover the next 80 years with upwards of 2.7 C of annual warming, wetter winters, generally driersummers and significantly longer frost-free periods.Table 3: Projected changes in selected climate variables for the province of British Columbia for threetime periods – the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Projected changes are relative to the historic baseline1961-1990. The ensemble median is a mid-point value, chosen from a set of 15 Global Climate Model(GCM) projections for each of A2 and B1. (Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, 2013c)Climate VariableSeasonMean TemperaturePrecipitationSnowfallFrost-Free DaysCHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIAProjected Change from 1961-1990 BaselineEnsemble 099)Annual 1.0 1.8 C 2.7 CAnnual 4% 6% 9%Summer 0%-1% 0%Winter 4% 8% 13%Winter-2%-10%-12%Spring-30%-58%-70%Annual 10 days 20 days 30 days74
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016Table 4: Projected changes in selected climate variables by the 2080s for ecoprovinces inBritish Columbia. “ ” denotes increase, “-“ denotes decrease. (Source: Pacific Climate ImpactsConsortium, ntersCentralInterior 2.6 -SouthernInteriorMountains 2.7 Taiga Plains 3.0EcoprovinceBoreal Plains 2.8PrecipitationSummarySnowfallFrostFreeDays -74% 35Warmer, wetterwintersMuch drier summers- -69% 34Warmer, wetterwintersMuch drier summers -75% 21Warmer, wetterwinters and summers NoChange 21Warmer, wetterwintersNo change summerprecipitation -75% 30Warmer, wetterwintersNo change summerprecipitation -75%Sub-BorealInterior 2.6 NoChangeGeorgiaDepression 2.6 - -54% 26Warmer, wetterwintersDrier summersSouthernInterior 2.8 - -75% 37Warmer, wetterwintersMuch drier summersCoast andMountains 2.4 - -71% 35Warmer, wetterwintersMuch drier summersClimate change is not only associated with warming conditions, but also more extreme weatherevents such as high intensity rainfall (Murdock and Sobie, 2013). The Pacific Climate ImpactsConsortium preliminary analysis indicates that the frequency of Pineapple Express events will increaseby 2041-2070 with the largest increases on the coast. The average number of atmospheric river daysper year is projected to approximately double at most locations, including the interior.Projected changes in sea level in British Columbia (Figure 5) are similar to historic patterns (Section2.1). The greatest amounts of sea level rise are projected to occur along the southern mainland andsoutheast Vancouver Island. The least amount of sea level rise is projected in areas where there issignificant tectonic uplift, a non-climatic influence, described above in Section 2.1. Projections varyaccording to emissions scenarios, and changes in relative sea level could be negligible at some sitesunder a low emissions scenario.CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA75
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016Figure 5: Projections of relative sea-level rise for the year 2100 for the median value of the high emissionsscenario (RCP8.5; after James et al., 2014; Atkinson et al., 2016). See Vadeboncoeur (2016) foradditional information on sea-level projections. (Source: Natural Resources Canada)3.0 OVERVIEW OF BRITISH COLUMBIA’S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMThe British Columbia transportation system encompasses a variety of different modes, including roadsand highways, rail, marine, air, and urban transit systems. The diverse hubs and networks relatedto these various modes act together to provide a cohesive transportation system that supportsthe people and economy of the Province of British Columbia, as illustrated in Figures 6 and 7. Thealignment of the major transportation corridors and hubs along coastlines and within mountain passesand corridors is evident.This chapter focuses on roads, rail, marine and air, with urban transit systems discussed in Chapter 9.While this chapter discusses each transportation mode individually, it is important to understand thatthey are heavily integrated. Weather impacts that adversely affect one mode of transportation canalso have negative impacts on other modes.3.1 ROADSBritish Columbia has over 46,000 km of roads, including provincial highways (12,700 km) and side roads(33, 300 km) (British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure, 2014e; Figure 7), in additionto other municipal and federal roads. There are also over 2,800 bridges within the road system (BritishColumbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure, 2014e).CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA76
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016Figure 6: Principle transportation infrastructure in British Columbia, including permafrost zones.Figure 7: Road infrastructure in British Columbia.CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA77
Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016In 2013, there were three million registered on-road vehicles in British Columbia, representing 13percent of the Canadian total on-road vehicle registrations that year. This includes 2.7 million lightduty vehicles (automobiles, SUVs and lighter trucks), or approximately one vehicle for every 1.7people in the province (Statistics Canada, 2015b). The province’s population is, therefore, highlydependent upon the road system. Climate-induced interruptions in road service can have asignificant impact on the lives and livelihood of the people of British Columbia.3.2 RAILBritish Columbia has approximately 6,500 kilometers of railway (Figure 6), primarily served by CanadianNational (CN) Rail ( 4,400 km) and Canadian Pacific (CP) Rail ( 1,720 km). Regional railways compriseanother 402 km of track. This extensive infrastructure is designed to facilitate the efficient flow ofgoods through the Asia Pacific Gateway. The railways provide 24-hour, year-round service to port andterminal networks in Vancouver and Prince Rupert.CN’s main rail routes in British Columbia run from Vancouver to Edmonton, Alberta from Fort Nelson toVancouver, and from Prince Rupert to Edmonton. CN Rail employs three Intermodal terminals in theprovince, located in Vancouver, Prince George, and Prince Rupert (CN, 2015). CN also operates anintermodal service from Prince Rupert, British Columbia to Whittier, Alaska. Called the AquaTrain, railcars are loaded onto a barge directly and transported. Alaska is completely dependent on CN RailAquaTrain service for its freight transport, as this service is connected to all Alaskan Freight train routes(Alaskarails, 2015). CP’s main rail route runs from Vancouver to an Intermodal Terminal in Calgary,Alberta, and the company has one intermodal terminal in Vancouver (CP, 2015).In 2013, the British Columbia rail system moved 63 million tonnes of commodities, representing over20 percent of the Canadian total (Statistics Canada, 2015c). Of these, the principal commodities, bytonnage, were coal, lumber and wood products, sulphur, cement, automobiles, and wheat. Manyof the commodities reflect the resource-based nature of the British Columbia economy, and indicatethe impact of trade with the Pacific Rim.In addition to freight services, VIA Rail offers passenger services along two corridors, from Toronto,Ontario to Vancouver (The Canadian) (Via Rail, 2015a) and from Jasper, Alberta to Prince Rupert,British Columbia (Western Canada) (Via Rail, 2015b).3.3 AIRThere are 39 airports in British Columbia which are federally certified for passenger service, in additionto 251 registered land-based airports, aerodromes, heliports and water aerodromes (TransportCanada, 2015; Government of British Columbia, 2016a). Certified airports include Vancouver, thesecond busiest airport in Canada, Victoria the tenth busiest and Kelowna the eleventh busiest (TravelBC, 2016). (See Figure 6 for principle airports). Vancouver International Airport (YVR) handles over 19million passengers and more than 256, 900 tonnes of cargo in 2014 (Vancouver Port Authority, 2014).Airport expansion plans are expected to
CHAPTER 4: BRITISH COLUMBIA 68 Climate Risks & Adaptation Practices - For the Canadian Transportation Sector 2016. KEY FINDINGS Transportation systems in British Columbia have demonstrated vulnerability to extreme weather and changes in climate.
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